When will it all end?

ShineOn7 · 21-02-2021 10:49PM

via Reddit Ireland

If you look at last few weeks, the drop is getting halved every week. we're gonna plateau soon at this rate. no wonder they don't want to lift any restrictions.

And rightly so

The "bUt tHe eCoNoMy!" crowd were simply shíte at Maths in school

Lockdowns are the lesser of two evils. The economy is fúcked either way

So that's 5,564 cases this week. A drop of 480 compared to last week.

A list of previous weeks (Mon-Sun) for anyone interested:

A graph of weekly cases.
Week 38 - 1,982 (Dublin Level 3: 18/09)

Week 39 - 2,084 (Donegal Level 3: 25/09)

Week 40 - 3,070

Week 41 - 4,510 (National Level 3: 07/10)

Week 42 - 7,495 (Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan Level 4: 15/10)

Week 43 - 7,194 (National Level 5: 22/10)

Week 44 - 4,940

Week 45 - 3,500

Week 46 - 2,613

Week 47 - 2,622

Week 48 - 1,830

Week 49 - 2,050 (National Level 3: 01/12)

Week 50 - 1,984

Week 51 - 3,381

Week 52 - 6,659

Week 53 - 15,759 (National Level 5: 30/12)

Week 01 (2021) - 45,770

Week 02 - 25,212

Week 03 - 14,877

Week 04 - 9,016

Week 05 - 7,170

Week 06 - 6,044

Week 07 - 5,564 (This Week)

it seems to be on trend. This is going to be a long slog. Have a look at our highest number of cases in Dec. I’m going to round these for ease.

45k. The next week is 25k. So a difference of 20k roughly.

Now the week after 14k. A difference of 11k roughly. So just over half the drop of the previous week.

The next week again, 9k. About a 5k drop. So again, just around half the number of cases dropped in the previous week.

Keep going along the weeks and it seems to be about the same. So if we have (let’s be generous) 500 less cases than last week, I expect the difference of next week to be about 250.

21-02-2021 10:51PM

end of the road wrote: »

your grand thanks, apart from getting the kids back to school as soon as we can, letting people do the rest and turning the country into a basket case with a crashed health system unable to treat anyone is something i think most wil give a miss, thanks.
you can get a drink and have dinner at home, much cheaper and more tastey.

Ya because before covid the HSE was gold standard wasn't it. Year's of waiting lists, trolley crisis, cervical scandal etc etc.
Things opened up last summer and went fairly smoothly until wait for it ' FLU SEASON' AKA WINTER! LIKE EVERY YEAR.
And by your have a drink and dinner at home attitude, sure you might aswell go and grow your own food and raise your own animals etc etc because sure yanno it's much cheaper and tasty isn't it.

beauf · 21-02-2021 10:57PM

xhomelezz wrote: »

It will take a while to achieve that. But I agree when ALL vulnerable parts of society are vaccinated, we should ease up restrictions.

That second part of your post.. well I'm sorry, people are not terrified, people chose to be careful.

I'm not entirely sure how people are terrified and submitting to the regulations, and at the same time had enough and ignoring the regulations.

Some said " infection rates down and over 70 per cent vaccinated" whats the guesstimate for when they'll get 70% vaccinated. Some say autumn. I doubt the "Pro Covid" crowd will wait that long. Sound like they've already given up waiting.

Maurice Byrne · 21-02-2021 11:00PM

Does anyone want to set up an internet forum called banned.ie ?

beauf · 21-02-2021 11:01PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

via Reddit Ireland

And rightly so

The "bUt tHe eCoNoMy!" crowd were simply shíte at Maths in school

Lockdowns are the lesser of two evils. The economy is fúcked either way

Faster to reduce deaths generally follows faster recovering economy I've seen some reports say.

Others aren't really worried about the over 65s or vulnerable. (unless on a trolley) so they will want it opened up regardless of any stats. So the numbers are immaterial to them.

franciscanpunk · 21-02-2021 11:03PM

I was worried the new 'plan' would start pushing dates out until later in the year and just keep pushing and pushing them out further...now it seems like they just are not going to bother with dates:)

would nearly prefer if they make no changes at next review rather than what i think they will do and throw us a few crumbs that they will try sell as progress

drunkmonkey · 21-02-2021 11:26PM

I hope the new plan goes back to County level or even Provence, that seemed to be working and gave people some hope when pulling together. The Guards could concentrate on provincial borders they've no hope of controlling the situation as it is. MM coming out this week and saying level 5 for another few months nation wide will be laughed out the door by a lot of people as it's unenforceable.

beauf · 21-02-2021 11:30PM

If its unenforceable whats the issue?

21-02-2021 11:32PM

I wonder does Tanzania have the right approach ?

Watch this short video from African news.

https://www.africanews.com/2021/02/03/tanzania-minister-no-interest-in-procuring-covid-19-vaccines//

ujjjjjjjjj · 21-02-2021 11:34PM

beauf wrote: »

Well you deflected my question. Like for like seems fair.

I can't answer that as a "lockdown person" whatever that is, as I'm not pro a permanent lock down.
But I suspect most people ProCovid people aren't looking for answers. Since when you look up most of their facts they are mostly untrue. Which tells its own story.

If you look at the stats and the pattern, on the face of it, I guess you'd pick the most successful time as a benchmark to guide us going forward.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107064/coronavirus-cases-development-ireland/

However we aren't dealing with the same situation as we were back then. We are in a worse position.

It is funny as you are continuing along the same path and every person broadly in favour of lockdown that I discuss this with goes the same way. Deflection to dead end arguments about protecting the health service etc etc etc

They can't actually stipulate what they believe is the point we should lift all restrictions.

I have clearly explained mine, vaccinate the over 65's and the medically vulnerable and we move on and live with it.

Why because life is grey and once the above cohort is vaccinated the vast majority of hospitalizations and deaths will go and we have to all grow up and tolerate the remaining negatives. Why? - because the damage being done by not fully opening up is enormous and far outweighs any positive benefit from preventing a small number of hospitalizations and deaths.

Read the CSO data, this is a virus that only presents a significant risk to the elderly and some medically vulnerable people.

So if you would like to outline when you (and you can define yourself as whatever you want) think we should lift all restrictions I am all ears.....

And whatever you answer is I will respect it. I may point out areas I don't agree with or I might not agree with it at all but I will respect it.

Waiting........

johnire · 21-02-2021 11:36PM

Did Sweden adopt the policy of little or no lockdowns and as far as I know I don't think it worked out too well for them?

gozunda · 22-02-2021 12:11AM

tommybrees wrote: »

Yup, walking around poolbeg today and everywhere is packed, I definitely think there has been a change of attitude. Old and young people walking around without masks and not a care in the world it seems, only the odd few wearing them.

I would think if a protest was organised now numbers would be strong.

Absolutely love this type of comment :pac:

Its like some are actually surprised that people can go out and exercise when the weather is good like today...

OK some breaking news

At present People can walk / exercise outside with family members of their household. People may meet with people from another household in outdoor settings when taking exercise. There are no requirement to wear masks outdoors. Dublin is the capital city. Areas popular for recreation generally attract a lot of people who wish to exercise.

But most importantly people going for local exercise does not equate with the notion of wanting to run off and join some daft protest

Maurice Byrne · 22-02-2021 12:18AM

6541 wrote: »

I wonder does Tanzania have the right approach ?

Watch this short video from African news.

Tanzania is a great example to Ireland.

gozunda · 22-02-2021 12:33AM

Maurice Byrne wrote: »

Tanzania is a great example to Ireland.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/tanzanias-coviddenying-leader-urges-prayer-as-cases-climb-tanzania-diseases-president-covid19-cases-b1804648.html?amp

Maybe we could say another mass?

beauf · 22-02-2021 01:08AM

johnire wrote: »

Did Sweden adopt the policy of little or no lockdowns and as far as I know I don't think it worked out too well for them?

Jeez don't start that. That has its own thread with even more creative 'facts" than this one.

beauf · 22-02-2021 01:43AM

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

It is funny as you are continuing along the same path and every person broadly in favour of lockdown that I discuss this with goes the same way. Deflection to dead end arguments about protecting the health service etc etc etc

They can't actually stipulate what they believe is the point we should lift all restrictions.

I have clearly explained mine, vaccinate the over 65's and the medically vulnerable and we move on and live with it. .........

In the reply to your question, I never mentioned the Health service I linked to the new cases trends and where on we would need to be on it.
But as predicted you ignored that and just went on the usual dogma.
Like I predicted it wasn't a genuine question, there was only one answer you wanted to hear.

Herd immunity of the under 65s.
Relax all lockdown restrictions (and thus repeat the spike at Xmas)
Only this time let it run uncontrolled.

Good luck with that.

TomSweeney · 22-02-2021 01:53AM

Never.

I stopped being afraid of this virus last summer when you could clearly see by the data that it wasn't nearly as dangerous as we first thought.
Last summer when nothing was happening and they decided to mandate masks - even when outside alone in a forest (I live in Spain) was when I started to fear the govts actions.

Now we are a year in and the epidemiological situation and the vaccine situation are getting a lot better - however restrictions continue to stay or in some areas (travel esp.) getting worse.

This could be all over tomorrow, but for some reason criminal governments and medical juntas want it to last forever.
Laugh at this post, but bookmark it and in February 2024 when we are having the same discussion ....

Gradius · 22-02-2021 01:56AM

It'll be a great laugh when the penny drops about the actual impact of these vaccines. There's a very good chance they aren't going to change much of anything.

beauf · 22-02-2021 02:01AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

...
Laugh at this post, but bookmark it and in February 2024 when we are having the same discussion ....

I suspect it will be like the property forum. People predicting a huge crash and cheap property will eventually be right. Even it is 10 yrs later. But they'll then be able to say told you so.

ujjjjjjjjj · 22-02-2021 02:04AM

beauf wrote: »

In the reply to your question, I never mentioned the Health service I linked to the new cases trends and where on we would need to be on it.
But as predicted you ignored that and just went on the usual dogma.
Like I predicted it wasn't a genuine question, there was only one answer you wanted to hear.

Herd immunity of the under 65s.
Relax all lockdown restrictions (and thus repeat the spike at Xmas)
Only this time let it run uncontrolled.

Good luck with that.

You won't answer my question about what criteria you think is required to lift all restrictions. You just deflect, avoid and head off in tangents.

You are behaving exactly like everyone I talk to who is heavily pro lockdown or whatever you want to call it. They simply won't outline where they feel we need to be to remove all restrictions.

In essence you are just hurling from a ditch.....and that is very easy.

It is clear from the above you don't agree with my suggestion as to when we lift all restrictions and that is fine, entirely respect your view. From your post above you fear that we will have a similar outcome to what happened over Xmas and Jan this year and end up with huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths. I don't agree with your fears here but entirely respect your view. Thanks for your points and input on my idea. It helps me to understand people's fears and points of view.

But why oh why can't you just outline your criteria for removing all restrictions???

I will happily read it and let you know what I think of it.

beauf · 22-02-2021 02:05AM

Gradius wrote: »

It'll be a great laugh when the penny drops about the actual impact of these vaccines. There's a very good chance they aren't going to change much of anything.

Say we lift lock down restrictions and go for herd immunity before the vaccinations are rolled out. Whats the impact will they have then?

ujjjjjjjjj · 22-02-2021 02:08AM

Gradius wrote: »

It'll be a great laugh when the penny drops about the actual impact of these vaccines. There's a very good chance they aren't going to change much of anything.

The vaccines are excellent.......but yes you are right people need to move on accept they ain't a panacea but will hugely reduce hospitalisation and deaths. But we have to grow up and accept that people will still be catching covid.and some dieing even with comprehensive vaccine roleouts. But normal life must resume.

ujjjjjjjjj · 22-02-2021 02:16AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

Never.

I stopped being afraid of this virus last summer when you could clearly see by the data that it wasn't nearly as dangerous as we first thought.
Last summer when nothing was happening and they decided to mandate masks - even when outside alone in a forest (I live in Spain) was when I started to fear the govts actions.

Now we are a year in and the epidemiological situation and the vaccine situation are getting a lot better - however restrictions continue to stay or in some areas (travel esp.) getting worse.

This could be all over tomorrow, but for some reason criminal governments and medical juntas want it to last forever.
Laugh at this post, but bookmark it and in February 2024 when we are having the same discussion ....

Have never been even remotely afraid of this virus.......

beauf · 22-02-2021 02:19AM

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

You won't answer my question about what criteria you think is required to lift all restrictions. You just deflect, avoid and head off in tangents.

You are behaving exactly like everyone I talk to who is heavily pro lockdown or whatever you want to call it. They simply won't outline where they feel we need to be to remove all restrictions.

In essence you are just hurling from a ditch.....and that is very easy.

It is clear from the above you don't agree with my suggestion as to when we lift all restrictions and that is fine, entirely respect your view. From your post above you fear that we will have a similar outcome to what happened over Xmas and Jan this year and end up with huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths. I don't agree with your fears here but entirely respect your view. Thanks for your points and input on my idea. It helps me to understand people's fears and points of view.

But why oh why can't you just outline your criteria for removing all restrictions???

I will happily read it and let you know what I think of it.

Again with the strawman. I don't fear it. I just don't see the point of trying something that has failed repeatedly multiple places.

If the majority want it, then social and political pressure will make it happen. If you can't make it happen then the majority aren't with you.

beauf · 22-02-2021 02:20AM

johnire wrote: »

Did Sweden adopt the policy of little or no lockdowns and as far as I know I don't think it worked out too well for them?

People on this thread want to copy them.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/coronavirus-in-europe-where-are-the-hotspots-and-how-does-ireland-compare-1083576.html

ujjjjjjjjj · 22-02-2021 02:31AM

beauf wrote: »

Again with the strawman. I don't fear it. I just don't see the point of trying something that has failed repeatedly multiple places.

If the majority want it, then social and political pressure will make it happen. If you can't make it happen then the majority aren't with you.

You still won't answer the question..........and head off on another tangent to avoid answering the question.

It is not a strawman........another standard diversionary method to avoid answering a question.

I asked you a question about what criteria do you think needs to be met to lift all restrictions. I have given you my answer and taken your comments on my answer. I don't agree with your points but respect your point of view and find it interesting.

You for some reason seem intent on not answering the question which I don't understand as ultimately is the big decision that has to be made on Covid.

I am genuinely interested in listening to your point of view on this question along with anyone else who wants to get involved.

So what criteria do you think needs to be met to lift all restrictions ?

NeuralNetwork · 22-02-2021 02:38AM

I’m not afraid of the virus any more than I’m afraid of wasps, but I also don’t fancy sticking my face into a wasps nest.

There’s a level of practicality to this stuff. You don’t need to be utterly paranoid but at the same time you do need to be aware that there’s a rather dangerously contagious virus. Pretending their isn’t will not make it go away.

Vaccines on the other hand, hopefully will make it more of a manageable nuisance than a major problem.

Also whatever about Spain’s rules, Ireland does not and never has mandated wearing of masks other than in indoor circumstances like retail and on public transport. If you’re wearing one in the forest on your own here, well that’s up to you...

They’re a useful tool, used appropriately, but they’re not some magic panacea either. I think when the rules are obviously dogmatic, people stop complying with them. We haven’t gone that route and I don’t think we will.

We need to be a lot more pragmatic about retail though and other area of the economy. Some really do not seem to warrant the level of risk that’s being applied to them.

I wouldn’t be in favour of throwing caution to the wind and doing a rapid reopening, but we should be cautiously reopening where it’s safe, starting at lowest risk and moving from there.

Also regional differences should be used to minimise economic impact. If areas have low risk and there’s a possibility of opening things more, it should happen. One big centralised policy is stupid as it just causes unnecessary economic damage.

If say Cork City could open and Galway couldn’t for example, the money generated in Cork is supporting Galway. We need to stop seeing it as GAA shirt begrudgery and just do what’s needed to minimise harmful impact of the restrictions but maximise their effectiveness where needed. The more places that can get things back to semi normality then better for everyone else. We might not be able to do it at the same time but one are being open is supporting other areas that can’t do that. It shouldn’t be seen as some kind of unfairness or competition. More economic activity is beneficial for the whole country even if it can’t be everywhere opening at the same time. A lot of this stuff is just random luck due to presence of outbreaks. It’s no slight on areas that have had spikes.

Scalpel, not a sledgehammer.

beauf · 22-02-2021 02:46AM

ujjjjjjjjj wrote: »

You still won't answer the question..........and head off on another tangent to avoid answering the question.

It is not a strawman........another standard diversionary method to avoid answering a question.

I asked you a question about what criteria do you think needs to be met to lift all restrictions. I have given you my answer and taken your comments on my answer. I don't agree with your points but respect your point of view and find it interesting.

You for some reason seem intent on not answering the question which I don't understand as ultimately is the big decision that has to be made on Covid.

I am genuinely interested in listening to your point of view on this question along with anyone else who wants to get involved.

So what criteria do you think needs to be met to lift all restrictions ?

Third time. When our new cases stats, are better than any previous post lock-down period, and for longer.

ujjjjjjjjj · 22-02-2021 02:50AM

beauf wrote: »

Third time. When our new cases stats, are better than any previous post lock-down period, and for longer.

So to put a number on it what less than 10 cases a day ? Over a 2 week period on average ?

Or something thereabouts ?

beauf · 22-02-2021 02:51AM

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

...
Also regional differences should be used to minimise economic impact. If areas have low risk and there’s a possibility of opening things more, it should happen. One big centralised policy is stupid as it just causes unnecessary economic damage....

We did this for the second wave. Kildare, Laois and Offaly. Rolled back then Dublin, Donegal. Then Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan. Govt ignored medical advice and eventually it rolled all back into a national one again.

When will it all end?

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