2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Hubertj wrote: »

Wow. It does look very nice but I would have thought €640k would get a lot more house in cork. I’m gone from cork since 2012 but is supply that bad now?

Supply is bad but houses haven’t appreciated 35% in two years. They’re just delusional. Won’t get near the asking unless they find a “big fool”. Seems unlikely with the PPR these days

southofthelee wrote: »

Tricky. From a location perspective Ballincollig is Ballincollig not Cork City - regardless of boundary changes.

On the other hand - it is a 5-bed - which if in a more desirable suburb would be at least +10% (look in Daft for 5 beds in Blackrock, Douglas etc.).

Additionally - there are plenty of folk with employment in the proximity of Ballincollig in solid employment (EMC etc), who could easily access credit for this property (think trader-uppers).

It will probably get this price

Not a hope! It’s Ballincollig, not Blackrock! If it was on the Model Farm Road then yeah it would get it but not in Ballincollig. I live in Ballincollig and I like it but it’s not the Blackrock Road...you’re not comparing like for like. It’s the Cork equivalent of Lucan. Anyone paying 640k is immediately 100k in negative equity.

Deleted User wrote: »

Totally agree. We moved from South Dublin to Bray a number of years ago, I honestly feel like it was a stroke of genius. I never knew much about Bray but once you come out here, you realise that it's one of the few places with so much on it's doorstep; Dart so you never lose that connection to Dublin which was important for us, sea, mountains, the new Stella cinema, so many great food and brunch spots and fantastic pubs, one of the best golf clubs in the country (Powerscourt).. literally on your doorstep... Compare that to your average housing estate in Cabinteely or Leopardstown (both great spots, I used to live there but you know what I mean).

Bray has a few council estates just like that Killiney/Ballybrack example you mentioned earlier but who's going down there anyway? You don't go to Charlesland or Kindlestown in Greystones and then tell everyone that Greystones is a kip. Likewise you don't go to Castlebyrne in Blackrock and tell everyone that Blackrock is an unsavoury place.

Coming from South Dublin, the one thing that say a Cabinteely has that Bray doesn't have is much better schools on it's doorstep but if you're sending your kids to private, that doesn't really matter anyway.

Wow what a yuppie post . Almost satirical. Partridge - esque

southofthelee wrote: »

Ya - as per my post Blackrock would be +10% for a five bed. I don't believe the property is worth it - but with the current levels of dry powder I would wager it will attain this price.

Also worth noting it's SherryFitz - who at least in the areas I follow - will price above market average - and if the seller is not in a rush - will hold out for this price.

Well let’s see. I pity the poor fool that gets screwed if it does sell for it’s asking

Smouse156 wrote: »

House gone up near me recently, stupidly overpriced IMO. Sold for 485k in 2018 (possibly late 2017 given appeared on price register Feb2018) with HTB so really 465k. Second hand houses have risen 7% since (CSO) then Q42017 to Q42020 so I’d value it around the 520k mark. Given the supply shortage maybe 540k although that would be pushing it. Price seems to be based on a larger unit/larger site plot selling for 620k (around the same time but the last sale on that row) on the same row. Typical lazy Sherry Fitzgerald, looking for 2.5% to do nothing bar open the door.

640k seems delusional and really hoping to find the “big fool”:

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/detached-house-106-millers-court-old-quarter-ballincollig-co-cork/2919114

Anyone in Cork with thoughts?

Nice house but...the asking price seems very high given its not of the stand alone larger detached, larger site type homes in Ballincollig. I wouldn't pay it but somebody will because thats this market. Saw another one in Douglas go up yesterday for nearly 600k. Well extended but dated IMO & a quick check on the PPR shows its closest price contender being 470k a couple of years ago, highest price ever paid in that estate in the history of the PPR. All these ludicrous asking prices are telling me to back the feck off until things ease up & let our competitors burn off some steam All I can do is roll my eyes & shrug to myself.

Villa05 wrote: »

Do you not understand that incompetency and corruption leads to the rise in popularity of alternate parties. In your acceptance of it you are contributing to the popularity of SF

I don’t accept either.

Smiley11 wrote: »

Nice house but...the asking price seems very high given its not of the stand alone larger detached, larger site type homes in Ballincollig. I wouldn't pay it but somebody will because thats this market. Saw another one in Douglas go up yesterday for nearly 600k. Well extended but dated IMO & a quick check on the PPR shows its closest price contender being 470k a couple of years ago, highest price ever paid in that estate in the history of the PPR. All these ludicrous asking prices are telling me to back the feck off until things ease up & let our competitors burn off some steam All I can do is roll my eyes & shrug to myself.

As soon as we get an uptick in supply those houses lose 20% if anyone actually pays those prices. Still though, a home is the most expensive purchase of most people’s lives and even if they personally haven’t a clue about property you’d think they’d ask someone that does before signing contracts. For the Ballincollig house better to rent and spend 20k for a year than lose 100k on it.

Smouse156 wrote: »

As soon as we get an uptick in supply those houses lose 20% if anyone actually pays those prices. Still though, a home is the most expensive purchase of most people’s lives and even if they personally haven’t a clue about property you’d think they’d ask someone that does before signing contracts. For the Ballincollig house better to rent and spend 20k for a year than lose 100k on it.

Is there much on the way in terms of new builds in blackrock etc? Or just what planned along the river?

PropQueries wrote: »

What’s the story with the cork housing market? There’s nothing but land around cork city.

I know Dublin has plenty of land but cork is basically one big field. That’s not being said in jest. There’s nothing but empty land around cork city, so no possible reason at all for any housing supply issues.

Hubertj wrote: »

Is there much on the way in terms of new builds in blackrock etc? Or just what planned along the river?

To be honest, we're not in the new build market but, in my limited knowledge, there seem to be quite a few new developments going on outside of restrictions. Thats just my impression though & somebody in that market may have a far better insight into it. What I do see regularly though is houses going sale agreed far surpassing their asking orice. This isn't in every area obviously but you need a pretty flexible budget in the "hot" areas. There aren't many 1m+ houses on the market generally but, in those I've checked, they seem to be going for asking & slightly under. Not our price range unfortunately but the 1m + houses here tend to be food quality.

Hubertj wrote: »

Is there much on the way in terms of new builds in blackrock etc? Or just what planned along the river?

There are a good few estates being built in the suburbs and what people said isn’t far off the mark. There is lots of land available. Just not enough construction workers & Govt lockdown of construction will drive more and more Sinn Fein votes in the near future

Smouse156 wrote: »

There are a good few estates being built in the suburbs and what people said isn’t far off the mark. There is lots of land available. Just not enough construction workers & Govt lockdown of construction will drive more and more Sinn Fein votes in the near future

And they still don't get it. There is a good article in the Irish Times today regarding the 1,300 homes that are to be built on the publicly-owned Central Mental Hospital site in Dundrum.

The columnist attended a recent webinar hosted by the LDA and the architects in relation to the plans for the site:

"Someone asked what would constitute success for the site. Architect Rob Keane spoke about preserving the rich tapestry of natural and historical features including its biodiversity, and ensuring that heritage of the main hospital building was preserved.

He also spoke about opening up the space to the local community and being truly sustainable. These are all important, indeed, vital issues and his sincerity was palpable. However, affordability featured nowhere in what he said. Barry Chambers of the LDA spoke after him. Finally, the word affordable was mentioned – this would be an 'affordable-led scheme'".

So, they apparently still don't get the issue.

This is state-owned land. Affordability should be the only issue. And, this is on top of both the ESRI and the Central Bank this week telling the Government that their new proposed shared equity scheme will both increase house prices and will most likely break the central banks existing LTV/LTI rules so the shared-equity plan probably can't proceed as proposed even if the government approves it.

According to the Irish Independent yesterday: "It is understood the Central Bank believes the scheme, as proposed in the Affordable Housing Bill, will have 'immediate policy implications' for the regulator due to banks being centrally involved in the new housing plan."

Link to Irish Times article on Dundrum scheme here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/breda-o-brien-let-public-land-be-for-social-and-affordable-housing-1.4489717

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Honest question, if the shared equity scheme is scrapped for whatever reason, what is the next option for FF/FG to desperately claw back votes before 2024 housing wise?

I think they will likely cop on a bit and do something proper. In parallel Sinn Fein will continue to shoot themselves in the foot as they seem incapable of controlling many of their members.

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Honest question, if the shared equity scheme is scrapped for whatever reason, what is the next option for FF/FG to desperately claw back votes before 2024 housing wise?

The only possible solution I see is if they develop a register of who owns what residential property around the country.

If a lot of these vacant homes are indeed controlled by a few funds, slap a vacant tax of 20% of market value per annum on all such properties if the funds or another investor owns more than 10 of such vacant properties to force them into the market.

It's my theory on the reason for the "housing shortage" and I know many (most?) disagree with my theory but if I'm right, that's the solution right there IMO

If my theory is wrong, there's no way they can beef up new build supply in time for 2024.

Remember, people who were 30 in 2013 will be in their 40's by 2024. Who would you vote for in their circumstances no matter what your political beliefs are?

PropQueries wrote:

On the 11th September 2013, Threshold said: "Government called on to address housing shortage in Budget 2014".

PropQueries wrote:

At which stage it will be 11 years since they were first publicly told of this looming housing problem.

There record for the 20 years prior to that is not great either