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Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

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Comments

  • #7022
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,086 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Will you stop it with the backlogs?! :D

    Ha fair enough

    Just a large gap in the two figures

    Great progress this week though

    176 reduced cases for the three days so far this week compared to last week


  • #7023
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,541 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    And I still dont believe a word about the increased transmission rate of the variant.
    I tried to hunt it down on google and when it comes down to how they actually make that up methodology wise I swear I wondered did they guy who wrote the article even understand what they were saying. Call me ignorant - maybe I am - but I call BS on that all the way.

    There was a detailed study in the UK comparing the number of close contacts testing positive with the Kent strain compared to the previous strains and showed a notable increase, leading to the assumption it's more transmissible.


  • #7024
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,295 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    See this bugs me, they tell people to stay at home and then flag up household contacts testing positive... well that's what happens when your telling people to stay at home but 1 person brings it into the house.

    More transmissible or not, the weather's been crap and people are indoors

    That's not what he was getting at.


  • #7025
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,355 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    There was a detailed study in the UK comparing the number of close contacts testing positive with the Kent strain compared to the previous strains and showed a notable increase, leading to the assumption it's more transmissible.

    Have you a link to that please? Would like to see for myself. Thanks


  • #7026
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    There was a detailed study in the UK comparing the number of close contacts testing positive with the Kent strain compared to the previous strains and showed a notable increase, leading to the assumption it's more transmissible.

    Also if it is accounting for 90% of cases now how did it become so dominant?

    Here's an example where over infection cycles it becomes more dominant by infecting more people each and every time.

    544025.png


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  • #7027
    UsBus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭UsBus


    Large number of counties with consistent single digit cases. No reason to not allow travel within each of these counties. Targeted lockdown for areas with higher cases or outbreaks, similar to what was done in Laois Offaly kildare


  • #7028
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,086 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    UsBus wrote: »
    Large number of counties with consistent single digit cases. No reason to not allow travel within each of these counties. Targeted lockdown for areas with higher cases or outbreaks, similar to what was done in Laois Offaly kildare

    Can't see the government doing that

    Just an extension to the current restrictions until after Easter at the earliest bar construction and schools


  • #7029
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,355 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Also if it is accounting for 90% of cases now how did it become so dominant?

    Here's an example where over infection cycles it becomes more dominant by infecting more people each and every time.

    The dominant strain has changed several times over the last year. It in itself is not proof of more transmissible.

    Its basically a chaos system. In which we only see a all window to begin with. I am highly sceptical. Not necessarily that it isn't - it may well be - but how they came up with that and so quickly.

    I am really trying to follow their line I really am. I am interested professionally not just as a cantankerous anti restriction guy.


  • #7030
    jhegarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭jhegarty


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    RIP

    That's a super case figure but a lot lower than swabs today

    Might lead to a bit of a backlog but great progress

    Monday was the other way around 821 cases vs 645 swabs. So might be from that.


  • #7031
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,793 ✭✭✭Benimar


    jhegarty wrote: »
    Monday was the other way around 821 cases vs 645 swabs. So might be from that.

    Not likely. Hard to have cases before the swab!

    There had been a backlog building up so Monday was a bit of that. 288 shortfall today sounds a lot for ‘duplicate cases’ but the next few days will tell.


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  • #7032
    muddypuppy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭muddypuppy


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Never said it was, wouldn't chatise anyone like that.

    The point is its the time of year anyway when people spend more time at home. More time at home is more time indoors hence better chance of picking it up if someone is unfortunate enough to bring it home.

    More transmissible or not more people are spending more time indoors which can increase close contacts in the home.

    It's just something else to think about really, nothing more nothing less.

    I don't think the weather/time of the year make a big difference on how much people spend indoor to be honest. During normal times summer or winter most activities are still indoor (work, sleep, pub, restaurant, museum, cinemas, gyms). Maybe a bit more walking and the occasional hike, but I doubt it accounts for more than 10% difference.


  • #7033
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    A post from this day last year! :D


    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112569204&postcount=6716


  • #7034
    manofwisdom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭manofwisdom


    First time to have a Wednesday case number under 1000 since December. I didn't jinx it afterall @TheDoctor


  • #7035
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    One of the reasons the Kent strain has become dominant is that most of the large outbreaks around Christmas were seeded by people coming from the UK, where that strain was spreading and then not abiding by the rules when they came home.

    I know of one person who returned from London, isolated, tested negative on day 5, then later tested positive but had already infected 10+ people. The area in question had 0 cases before this, so the Kent strain became the variant in 100% of the cases. Nothing whatsoever to do with transmissibility in this case.

    The R0 in recent weeks has been the lowest in Europe going by fall in incidence rate, as outlined by Colm Henry. That would not suggest increased transmissibility as our European peers don’t have quite the dominance that we have in relation to B117.


  • #7036
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,541 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    Have you a link to that please? Would like to see for myself. Thanks

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf
    I think it's page 15/16 which does the comparison.


  • #7037
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    is_that_so wrote: »
    A post from this day last year! :D


    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112569204&postcount=6716

    If you want to laugh at someone why not mock your own efforts from a year ago. I clicked there fully presuming that is what it would be.


  • #7038
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    blowitupref wrote: »
    Worth taking into account that most of not all of those that died of or with Covid are reported now.

    While I'm sure we had plenty that died in early part of the first wave that didn't know they had covid as they weren't tested for it.

    Excess mortality figures do not support that belief.


  • #7039
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    See this bugs me, they tell people to stay at home and then flag up household contacts testing positive... well that's what happens when your telling people to stay at home but 1 person brings it into the house.

    More transmissible or not, the weather's been crap and people are indoors

    Yeah, it’s ridiculous. At a minimum, they should be encouraging people to get outdoors as much as they can.


  • #7040
    brick tamland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    marno21 wrote: »
    One of the reasons the Kent strain has become dominant is that most of the large outbreaks around Christmas were seeded by people coming from the UK, where that strain was spreading and then not abiding by the rules when they came home.

    I know of one person who returned from London, isolated, tested negative on day 5, then later tested positive but had already infected 10+ people. The area in question had 0 cases before this, so the Kent strain became the variant in 100% of the cases. Nothing whatsoever to do with transmissibility in this case.

    The R0 in recent weeks has been the lowest in Europe going by fall in incidence rate, as outlined by Colm Henry. That would not suggest increased transmissibility as our European peers don’t have quite the dominance that we have in relation to B117.

    There's a lot that I find hard to believe about this more transmissible variant. Still think there is an element of scaring the general public to it. About 2 weeks ago, Martin said the UK variant was increasing the R number by half a percent. Nolan said later that day the R number was currently anout 0.6 Someone's talking out of their arse there and my money isn't on nolan.


  • #7041
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


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  • #7042
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,039 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    blowitupref wrote: »
    Worth taking into account that most of not all of those that died of or with Covid are reported now.

    While I'm sure we had plenty that died in early part of the first wave that didn't know they had covid as they weren't tested for it.
    I thought the fashionable complaint at the time was that in the first wave we were reporting cause of death as covid when people had actually been run over by a bus?


  • #7043
    tigger123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,605 ✭✭✭tigger123


    Anyone know the 7 day average after today?

    Or the last 5 Wednesdays?


  • #7044
    I regurgitate the news
    Closed Accounts Posts: 140 ✭✭I regurgitate the news


    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0217/1197573-covid-19/

    Last year we were told that up to 85,000 could die from Covid 19.

    In the UK Neil Ferguson forecast 500,000 deaths over there.

    Does anyone know what were the forecasting tools that used?

    Considering how off they were, should we be listening to the same people again for future forecasts?

    Highest occurrence of deaths in the US is in the states with the strictest lockdowns though there is little difference overall per population in Covid deaths for lockdown versus non lockdown states. This would prove that lockdowns are not responsible for saving lives. So hard to know how the forecasters got it so wrong


  • #7045
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    Ficheall wrote: »
    I thought the fashionable complaint at the time was that in the first wave we were reporting cause of death as covid when people had actually been run over by a bus?

    That's what I heard from at least 3 different people IRL. Not the bus part but heart attack, brain aneurysm and something else. All recorded as C19 deaths. 2 had apparently not even been tested but they stuck it down as C19 anyway 'to get the numbers up'.


  • #7046
    Always_Running
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    tigger123 wrote: »
    Anyone know the 7 day average after today?

    Or the last 5 Wednesdays?


    7-day average is 838 today. Last Wednesday it was 944.



    Ficheall wrote: »
    I thought the fashionable complaint at the time was that in the first wave we were reporting cause of death as covid when people had actually been run over by a bus?

    We still report deaths as the WHO outline. Possible and probable many other countries still don't do that.


  • #7047
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    That's what I heard from at least 3 different people IRL. Not the bus part but heart attack, brain aneurysm and something else. All recorded as C19 deaths. 2 had apparently not even been tested but they stuck it down as C19 anyway 'to get the numbers up'.

    At a séance?


  • #7048
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,295 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Have you heard about restrictions to prevent those projected figures?


  • #7049
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    I believe those figures were worst case scenarios.

    How many cases were prevented by observing hygiene and distance regulations?

    How many cases prevented by restrictions on movements?

    Looking at other countries like Italy who were unfortunate to be one of the first European coutries to be hit we can have a fair idea.


    Italy Coronavirus: 2,751,657 Cases and 94,540 Deaths

    Thankfully the worst case scenarios did not happen here ...


  • #7050
    timeToLive
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 283 ✭✭timeToLive


    This thread is definitely going to be locked haha


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  • #7051
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,039 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    PowerToWait wrote: »
    That's what I heard from at least 3 different people IRL. Not the bus part but heart attack, brain aneurysm and something else. All recorded as C19 deaths. 2 had apparently not even been tested but they stuck it down as C19 anyway 'to get the numbers up'.
    What sort of delusional Whatsapp groups are you in?


This discussion has been closed.
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