Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

1…230231233235236…333

Comments

  • #6962
    Stateofyou
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭Stateofyou


    seamus wrote: »
    This narrative has been around since at least June last year, once it became widespread knowledge that vaccines were in development. "We've never had a vaccine for coronaviruses, so we won't get one now" was the favourite one.

    Now that they're here, the pessimism has just become more intense. The media doesn't help, since they deliberately seek out pessimistic points of view to put across, because these are known to be more engaging than optimistic ones.

    At every step of vaccine development, the pessimists have been proven wrong.

    Whoa there cowboy. I happen to think it's possible the vaccines are going to be in at least partial jeopardy- because they already are. But I am NOT in the same group that in my opinion are not well informed. Trying to conflate the two just to try and feel superior with a baseless dig means you never had a leg to stand on at all.


  • #6963
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    938 positives on 17,104 tests, 5.48%

    One of those rare bad boys where Wednesday's percentage is lower than Tuesdays. And lower than 1,000.

    That's a really positive outcome today.


  • #6964
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,086 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    seamus wrote: »
    938 positives on 17,104 tests, 5.48%

    Good stuff

    158 less swabs than this day last week

    Hopefully under 1000 cases today


  • #6965
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    seamus wrote: »
    This narrative has been around since at least June last year, once it became widespread knowledge that vaccines were in development. "We've never had a vaccine for coronaviruses, so we won't get one now" was the favourite one.

    Now that they're here, the pessimism has just become more intense. The media doesn't help, since they deliberately seek out pessimistic points of view to put across, because these are known to be more engaging than optimistic ones.

    At every step of vaccine development, the pessimists have been proven wrong.

    He's quoting me there when he references this so called narrative.
    I assume you're referring to me as one of these pessimists who's always wrong about vaccines?
    Blind optimism is an an equally useless trait, Seamus. See some of your wild theories from December as evidence.

    The experts are concerned. I'm concerned too.
    Ignore it all if you think that's the way to go, but you could be in for a bit of a shock.


  • #6966
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    He's quoting me there when he references this so called narrative.
    I assume you're referring to me as one of these pessimists who's always wrong about vaccines?
    No, not referring to you, I'm talking in general terms.
    Blind optimism is an an equally useless trait, Seamus. See some of your wild theories from December as evidence.
    I don't theorise, I speculate :D

    Nevertheless, I try to maintain an open mind; to consider all possibilities rather than become bound to one as being inevitable.
    The experts are concerned. I'm concerned too.
    Honestly, I don't see the experts being concerned at all. They are keeping an eye on variants, ensuring that we don't get caught by surprise.
    But I have yet to hear a competent expert say that they are concerned that the effectiveness of the vaccines is in any serious jeopardy or that we'll have to start effectively from scratch anytime soon.

    The media are grabbing lots of opinions from all sorts of randomers; finance ministers, GPs, health ministers, South Africa, and firing them out there as "expert" opinions.

    These are of little more value than idle gossip.


  • Advertisement
  • #6967
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    What's the alternative? Keep everything closed until no one is "concerned" anymore? We opened up plenty of stuff last summer with very little rise in cases despite some people's concerns.

    Would you be happy to get cases as low as they were last summer before opening up?

    We got things very low last summer. Cases rose relatively quickly as a % when they rose but because we got so low it wasn't really noticeable.


  • #6968
    jhegarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,131 ✭✭✭jhegarty


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Good stuff

    158 less swabs than this day last week

    Hopefully under 1000 cases today

    Given the weekly trends , hopefully we never see 1000 again.


  • #6969
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,039 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    In the summer, hospitalisations will be as low as an average summer as they were last year.

    Cases will be lower.

    The high risk groups will be vaccinated.

    NPHET “we aren’t where we need to be”
    Ah, the old "let's make up things to complain about" chestnut.


  • #6970
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,086 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    jhegarty wrote: »
    Given the weekly trends , hopefully we never see 1000 again.

    Hopefully

    There's prob a bit of a backlog in swabs though so we may see 1000 again this week but hopefully not moving forward


  • #6971
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    jhegarty wrote: »
    Given the weekly trends , hopefully we never see 1000 again.

    Ib be shocked if we don't. Given that we are opening up Schools soon with a new variant that clearly spreads more rapidly.

    saw numbers of the university outbreak in Galway. 90 positive out of 200 tested. All online . Obviously house parties etc played a big role but still undelines the risks.

    Don't want to be negative but I do think we are forgetting that we are dealing with a more dangerous virus than a few months.

    News about the J & J was promising however. Hopefully we can be a in good position with vaccination in April/May and weather may help . The drop in India probably a number of factors, I think seasonality helps lower the Ro by about 0.4-0.6


  • Advertisement
  • #6972
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Great to see human challenge trials being conducted. Some of the "it's just a flu" can put there body on the line in the name of science. Brave souls. Given that the Irish government has been essentially copying everything the UK government have been doing of late, I expect our own home grown human challenge study.

    It could have it's own thread and become an "Ice bucket challenge" type thing in the coming months in the name of science.

    Sure to be popular on the relaxation of restrictions thread........

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/uk-to-begin-worlds-first-covid-human-challenge-study-within-weeks

    UK COVID challenge

    https://ukcovidchallenge.com/covid-19-volunteer-trials/


    544017.jpg

    544018.jpg


  • #6973
    El Weirdo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,647 ✭✭✭✭El Weirdo


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Great to see human challenge trials being conducted. Some of the "it's just a flu" can put there body on the line in the name of science. Brave souls. Given that the Irish government has been essentially copying everything the UK government have been doing of late, I expect our own home grown human challenge study.

    It could have it's own thread and become an "Ice bucket challenge" type thing in the coming months in the name of science.

    Sure to be popular on the relaxation of restrictions thread........

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/uk-to-begin-worlds-first-covid-human-challenge-study-within-weeks

    UK COVID challenge

    https://ukcovidchallenge.com/covid-19-volunteer-trials/


    [IMG][/img]SNIP

    [IMG][/img]SNIP

    What's the relevance of the photos?


  • #6974
    gctest50
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,534 ✭✭✭gctest50


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    ...........

    I expect our own home grown human challenge study.......

    Ireland is miles ahead - vaccinate all the people in nursing homes and then in a few weeks expose them to covid ( via herds of visitors)


  • #6975
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    El Weirdo wrote: »
    What's the relevance of the photos?

    They are from https://ukcovidchallenge.com/covid-19-volunteer-trials/ where you can register interest in taking part.
    About our research
    hVIVO conduct research using the Human Challenge Model. The Human Challenge Model is a study during which healthy volunteers are deliberately exposed to a virus, known as the “challenge virus”. This is different to standard vaccine clinical trials where volunteers are exposed to viruses naturally. The Human Challenge Model can provide a more efficient and faster way to develop vaccines as fewer volunteers are required.

    I guess they are there to give a sense of what it might be like for potential volunteers.

    Looks handy enough.


  • #6976
    pottokblue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,531 ✭✭✭pottokblue


    What hitech head gear but still leaves his ears open to viral exposure...


  • #6977
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,466 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    seamus wrote: »
    This narrative has been around since at least June last year, once it became widespread knowledge that vaccines were in development. "We've never had a vaccine for coronaviruses, so we won't get one now" was the favourite one.

    Now that they're here, the pessimism has just become more intense. The media doesn't help, since they deliberately seek out pessimistic points of view to put across, because these are known to be more engaging than optimistic ones.

    At every step of vaccine development, the pessimists have been proven wrong.

    It was started in America as soon as Trump says vaccines were coming.


  • #6978
    Klonker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    Just on the over/under 65 argument, what's being forgotten is our health care workers will have also gotten the vaccine by summer who make up over 10% of cases here so far.

    And further on this, the people who get vaccinated are not just going to lower the amount of people in hospital by avoiding the worst of the virus themselves, but also by breaking chains of infection. For example, if I get the virus and am in close contact with 5 people, I may pass it on to 3 for example and they pass on to 3 and so on. If 50% of my contacts are vaccinated I might only pass on to 2 people and them pass on to 2 if some of their contacts are vaccinated and so on. So the gains of the vaccines can actually be exponential. (Before anyway says it, I know there is no hard proof that vaccines make you less transmissible but it significantly decreases viral load and its only a matter of time before the data proves beyond doubt vaccines make people less transmissible)


  • #6979
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    I'd be happy enough with that. The % increase might be fairly high but as you say, that's less of an issue when coming from a lower base. Factor in an increasing number of people getting vaccinated and I can't see any reason not to be at least as open as last summer this year.

    We started the slow process of opening up on May 18th last year. Cases had just dipped under 100 per day.
    Funnily enough at the current rate of decline we'd be looking around late May to again get under 100 cases.

    Instead the current plan seems to be to begin a phased reopening in 12 days time. We'll likely have a 5%+ positivity rate, and we're dealing with a more transmissible disease.
    The WHO issued guidelines last May that countries should not consider reopening until they were under 5% for two weeks. From what we've seen since, 5% is probably too risky. But besides, that was for an older less transmissible strain.

    It's a very precarious situation. Our only big positive is that an ever growing percentage of the population will be immune.
    Before you all attack me, I'm not saying I want indefinite harsh restrictions. I'm just pointing out the perils of our current plan.


  • #6980
    mloc123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,445 ✭✭✭mloc123


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Ib be shocked if we don't. Given that we are opening up Schools soon with a new variant that clearly spreads more rapidly.

    saw numbers of the university outbreak in Galway. 90 positive out of 200 tested. All online . Obviously house parties etc played a big role but still undelines the risks.


    Yup.. all those primary school kids will be back having house parties when the schools open up...


  • #6981
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40209443.html

    Why are the media not reporting more on the absolutely insultingly low amount of bailout money the EU is going to provide Ireland? Who is going to pay for these never ending lockdowns and why are we so trigger happy to keep them going, if we're not even getting 1 billion from a €750 Billion recovery fund?


  • Advertisement
  • #6982
    mloc123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,445 ✭✭✭mloc123


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40209443.html

    Why are the media not reporting more on the absolutely insultingly low amount of bailout money the EU is going to provide Ireland? Who is going to pay for these never ending lockdowns and why are we so trigger happy to keep them going, if we're not even getting 1 billion from a €750 Billion recovery fund?

    I assume we will get 1% like we get 1% of all EU allocations... because we make up 1% of the population...


  • #6983
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40209443.html

    Why are the media not reporting more on the absolutely insultingly low amount of bailout money the EU is going to provide Ireland? Who is going to pay for these never ending lockdowns and why are we so trigger happy to keep them going, if we're not even getting 1 billion from a €750 Billion recovery fund?
    We can borrow vast sums at negligible and negative rates.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/state-5-5bn-bond-sale-one-third-of-borrowing-to-cover-covid-crisis-1.4450415


  • #6984
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    What's the alternative? Keep everything closed until no one is "concerned" anymore? We opened up plenty of stuff last summer with very little rise in cases despite some people's concerns.

    Just on the very little rise in cases bit - when we opened up last time, we had case numbers in the 20s. That is less than 1 person per county. I sometimes think of it in terms of spores, just as a visual thing, not scientific. If you go out in a yard and there are 20 spores floating, the likelihood of one landing on you is way way less than if there are 1000 spores. Substitute dandelion clocks and the same thing.
    There is also the thing about exponential increase in its early phase - covid cannot go really exponential as people freak out naturally when the hospitals start filling up and countries close down - it is slow at the start, really almost unnoticeable, and then when it gets really going it is very fast. That depends on amount to start with.
    Refer also to the metaphor of the lily pad in the pond doubling in size every day. It is really unnoticeable at first, for ages it just doubles away there in a hidden corner of the pond - but the day before it covers the whole pond, it covers half the pond - ie the increase is much faster when there is more of it to increase.

    There you go, lots of lovely nature analogies for the day :pac:


  • #6985
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,466 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    https://twitter.com/BBCHughPym/status/1361981207706292225


  • #6986
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,295 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40209443.html

    Why are the media not reporting more on the absolutely insultingly low amount of bailout money the EU is going to provide Ireland? Who is going to pay for these never ending lockdowns and why are we so trigger happy to keep them going, if we're not even getting 1 billion from a €750 Billion recovery fund?

    We said we didn't need it as we can souse funds cheaper elsewhere.


  • #6987
    Diabhalta
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,751 ✭✭✭Diabhalta


    so where did all the covid checkpoints go since the storm started last tuesday or when was it? Is there no checkpoints in bad weather? Why? Seems like they are doing checkpoints every other week.

    ---

    meanwhile in the US, the government went absolutely nuts. Agree with Shapiro. the answer is: No.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dwX4MSZ_9k&t=178s


  • #6988
    manofwisdom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭manofwisdom


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    We started the slow process of opening up on May 18th last year. Cases had just dipped under 100 per day.
    Not counting historical cases. On May 18th the 5 day average on cases was 119 per day and the 7 day average was 129.

    Another thing to note was testing.

    May 12th to May 18th - 36,818 tests were carried out. Compared to now 110,462 in the last 7 days.


  • #6989
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    Yeah thats a fair enough point and don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting we just open things up and forget about the consequences. I'm just saying IF we're in a similar position to last summer, I'd like to see us open up as least as much as we did back then, if not more.

    I don't have a problem with that at all.
    Well, I don't know what exactly you mean by "if not more". But assuming it's not complete lunacy, then we're agreed.

    Unfortunately it's looking really unlikely to pan out that way. There's understandable pressure to reopen schools. The only estimate I've ever seen on the effect on the R number from opening schools was from SAGE at 0.4

    Our current cases, swabs and positivity rate suggest an R of just below 1.
    If we take SAGE's estimate at face value (even though it's for the old strain), then we're looking at an R number of about 1.3 - 1.4 which would mean considerable growth of the virus from an already high level.

    I don't know what's going to happen, but I expect to see NPHET push back on the early March plan. We're just not where we need to be.


  • #6990
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,039 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    mloc123 wrote: »
    I assume we will get 1% like we get 1% of all EU allocations... because we make up 1% of the population...
    But less than 1 is less than 1% of 750...


  • Advertisement
  • #6991
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    manofwisdom wrote: »
    Not counting historical cases. On May 18th the 5 day average on cases was 119 per day and the 7 day average was 129.

    Another thing to note was testing.

    May 12th to May 18th - 36,818 tests were carried out. Compared to now 110,462 in the last 7 days.

    Ok. You're right about the 7 day average I'm sure, but it doesn't contradict what I said at all.

    I can't remember the criteria for testing back in mid-May. Was it significantly different to now?


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement