Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings

JRant · 12-02-2021 08:37AM

More kite flying / leaks last night. From what's been said to their media pals, government are going to go full retard on the reopening. No easing apart from construction and schools until a sustained period (4 weeks) of very low numbers. Schools to reopen over a 3 week period in March. Unfortunately, none of us know what that very low number is. Could be anywhere from 0-100. They really are going to push this into May. I'd say their incompetence in the vaccine rollout coupled with their decision to give over 70's the mRNA vaccine at the last second has contributed to this.

suicide_circus · 12-02-2021 08:47AM

I'm sensing a shift in public mood

walus · 12-02-2021 09:05AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

This is the part that gets to me. Give us the numbers that we're working towards. Let us know why we're going with those numbers.

They will never give numbers or stick to the dates for lifting restrictions as they don't want to be accountable. They use very simplified and rigid models that are not fit for purpose, models which continuously make predictions different to what actually takes place. We are going to live with them shifting the goal posts all the time until vaccine slows down the transmission significantly, the virus dies off on its own, or money printers are stopped.

JRant · 12-02-2021 09:10AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

This is the part that gets to me. Give us the numbers that we're working towards. Let us know why we're going with those numbers.

If they did that then people might start digging down into the numbers and actually ask what the hell has been going on in hospitals and nursing homes again. It also gives them flexibility to shift to whatever parameters they want, when they want. Oh, we are at 100 cases a day for a few weeks but the hospital numbers aren't where we would like them to be, and so on.

RobitTV · 12-02-2021 09:19AM

Irish Times: Late April or May before lockdown eases with month of low cases needed before change

Level 5 restrictions will not be eased until very low Covid-19 case numbers are sustained for up to four weeks, according to multiple senior Government sources. Such a scenario could see the wider reopening of society, beyond schools and construction, pushed back until late April or early May.

The concept of a “pause”, where no easing takes place until numbers stay at a consistent level for a few weeks, is used in New Zealand and Australia and is viewed favourably by a number of Ministers as an effective indicator that it is safe to lift restrictions.

Irish Times

Now they have moved the goalpost from just after Easter is finished to May. Full Level 5 restrictions...

JRant · 12-02-2021 09:38AM

RobitTV wrote: »

Irish Times: Late April or May before lockdown eases with month of low cases needed before change

Level 5 restrictions will not be eased until very low Covid-19 case numbers are sustained for up to four weeks, according to multiple senior Government sources. Such a scenario could see the wider reopening of society, beyond schools and construction, pushed back until late April or early May.

The concept of a “pause”, where no easing takes place until numbers stay at a consistent level for a few weeks, is used in New Zealand and Australia and is viewed favourably by a number of Ministers as an effective indicator that it is safe to lift restrictions.

Irish Times

Now they have moved the goalpost from just after Easter is finished to May. Full Level 5 restrictions...

So they want to copy NZ and Oz with this "pause", which of course is different to the "circuit breaker" (anyone remember that rubbish concept they tried and failed with miserably).

This "pause" also known as 'cover my hole' by senior government sources is yet another failure to lead by these clowns. Why do anything when you can just stay locked down.

You know what, I blame the hysteria caused by the media and opposition at Christmas because the numbers rose. Remember, every journalist and opposition member were constantly bleating about how the government "went against the NPHET and CMO advice". What they all conveniently left out was that even in NPHETS worst case scenario they never predicted numbers shooting up over 6,000 a day. Nolan was talking about how it could get to 1200 by early January.

FintanMcluskey · 12-02-2021 10:16AM

There won’t be anything left of our indigenous economy by the time it reopens

I think it would be better raise a family elsewhere

Boggles · 12-02-2021 10:18AM

JRant wrote: »

I'd say their incompetence in the vaccine rollout coupled with their decision to give over 70's the mRNA vaccine at the last second has contributed to this.

Ireland are well above the EU average on the vaccine roll out and ahead of Britain on fully dosed.

As for giving the mRNA to the over 70s, a decision based on available data and mimicked by a dozen other European countries, in fact they limit it to the under 65's and in 2 countries the under 55's.

I have no idea what incompetence you are referring to.

What we have got in has gone into arms and the mass inoculation of the population with the injecting of a biological substance is being guided by available science.

What would you have done differently there chief?

francogarbanzo · 12-02-2021 10:19AM

Screen-Shot-2021-01-02-at-10.24.35-AM.png

Boggles · 12-02-2021 10:19AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There won’t be anything left of our indigenous economy by the time it reopens

Aran Jumpers, tin whistles and hurleys?

paw patrol · 12-02-2021 10:20AM

JRant wrote: »

You know what, I blame the hysteria caused by the media and opposition at Christmas because the numbers rose. Remember, every journalist and opposition member were constantly bleating about how the government "went against the NPHET and CMO advice". What they all conveniently left out was that even in NPHETS worst case scenario they never predicted numbers shooting up over 6,000 a day. Nolan was talking about how it could get to 1200 by early January.

this is true.
whatever shambles FF and FG are presiding over.
Lets not forget SF and the rest are saying we should have MORE restrictions.

Let that sink in though , a lot of the left base would be working people of low/middle income....they are denying them a right to work and earn. surviving on PUP while the mortgage interest and unpaid bile pile up - not to mention the revenue coming looking for the taxes on the PUP.
What a betrayal.

suicide_circus · 12-02-2021 10:21AM

I'll be interested to see the reaction of opposition parties to the inevitable financial collapse and social unrest that's on the way. They've all looked for harder restrictions all the way along, they won't have a leg to stand on, but will that stop them egging on public anger, protests, strikes?

Will it ****.

Sierra Oscar · 12-02-2021 10:27AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

I'm sensing a shift in public mood

We were saying the same leading up to Christmas, the ‘shift in mood’ shifted back fairly sharpish once the hospitals became overwhelmed.

Again it comes back to the capacity of hospitals. If they become overwhelmed, care for everyone is impacted and mortality rates increase for all patients Covid or no Covid.

This isn’t just about vaccinating the over 70’s. Government are all too aware that there needs to be restrictions until the late stage of the vaccine rollout. Without them people who are vaccinated will socialise heavily, leading to cases skyrocketing and the hospitals being overwhelmed again. Add in the difficulties surrounding the spread of new variants and it isn’t a pretty picture.

I made this point a couple of months ago and was scoffed at. People who think restrictions will be lifted rapidly as the vulnerable groups are vaccinated are only setting themselves up for major disappointment. Yes, we all talk about the need to protect the lives of the vulnerable. However in reality the Government is more worried about hospitals being overwhelmed and it’s impact on healthcare right across the health system.

We’re going to have fairy harsh restrictions until the vaccine is rolled out to 70% + of the population. It’s ****e, but that’s the reality of things.

normanoffside · 12-02-2021 10:30AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There won’t be anything left of our indigenous economy by the time it reopens

I think it would be better raise a family elsewhere

€2000 fine for leaving.
Maybe it’s because they want to keep you here to pay tax in the future

FintanMcluskey · 12-02-2021 10:30AM

Boggles wrote: »

Aran Jumpers, tin whistles and hurleys?

Highlighting a lack of knowledge here boggles

Klonker · 12-02-2021 10:31AM

No way the public will except the current restrictions until May. Cases are falling quickly, hospital numbers are plummeting, ICU numbers are falling slowly but should pick up very soon due to longer lag time. By May most of vulnerable will have been vaccinated. We had barely any cases last summer with no vaccines and very little restrictions, how can they be so cautious this time? From the data we've seen from the new variants so far is there is very little difference in them so that can't be used as the reason.

Some of the older population are screaming for more restrictions because of the fear instilled in them from the very start, particularly from RTE. These are the ones who shout the loudest in terms of the media and politicians but they are in the majority I believe. I'm not against restrictions, look at December when a lot ignored them but we need some easing by the end of March or beginning of April like getting rid of 5km rule.

Hellrazer · 12-02-2021 10:31AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Something has to give, and the loud hints dropped by Varadkar and Martin about interminable restrictions have pushed our goodwill too far. Earlier, Hellrazer kindly put up an excel list of TD emails. I got busy this afternoon civilly registering my feelings on the matter, reminding them about the ballot box and token gratitude. These politicians are here to represent our interests, not belittle us into submission. "Strength in numbers" is the old adage, now is the time to mobilise and make our displeasure known.

I simply want an end to this undemocratic lockdown and be accorded the privilege of returning to work, with the added incentive of contributing to a faltering economy.

Call it a civic duty, and I'm determined to take to the streets in getting the message across to our aloof government.

Fair play - now if we can keep the momentum on them going and get a few lot more to do the same.
List attached again.

BTownB · 12-02-2021 10:32AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

W.

I made this point a couple of months ago and was scoffed at. People who think restrictions will be lifted rapidly as the vulnerable groups are vaccinated are only setting themselves up for major disappointment. Yes, we all talk about the need to protect the lives of the vulnerable. However in reality the Government is more worries about hospitals being overwhelmed and it’s impact on healthcare right across the health system.

We’re going to have fairy harsh restrictions until the vaccine is rolled out to 70% + of the population. It’s ****e, but that’s the reality of things.

But we didn't have 'fairly harsh restrictions' last summer and we managed just fine.

Christmas was a mess for a multitude of reasons [ 55,000 travelling home & not quarantining, coming out of strict lockdown with knowledge another lockdown loomed and people needed to see family while they had opportunity].

People aren't going to accept the current plan.

It's basically Zero Covid in all but name so they aren't setting themselves up to fail.

Are there any political parties who are against this strategy?

suicide_circus · 12-02-2021 10:32AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

We were saying the same leading up to Christmas, the ‘shift in mood’ shifted back fairly sharpish once the hospitals became overwhelmed.

You're right there but i can see people starting to care less about that

Sierra Oscar · 12-02-2021 10:34AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

You're right there but i can see people starting to care less about that

They’ll care once their mother or father who is suffering from a suspected heart attack is told their is no place for them in A&E. That’s the cold, hard reality of lifting restrictions rapidly and letting hospitals become overwhelmed.

batman_oh · 12-02-2021 10:35AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

We were saying the same leading up to Christmas, the ‘shift in mood’ shifted back fairly sharpish once the hospitals became overwhelmed.

Again it comes back to the capacity of hospitals. If they become overwhelmed, care for everyone is impacted and mortality rates increase for all patients Covid or no Covid.

This isn’t just about vaccinating the over 70’s. Government are all too aware that there needs to be restrictions until the late stage of the vaccine rollout. Without them people who are vaccinated will socialise heavily, leading to cases skyrocketing and the hospitals being overwhelmed again. Add in the difficulties surrounding the spread of new variants and it isn’t a pretty picture.

I made this point a couple of months ago and was scoffed at. People who think restrictions will be lifted rapidly as the vulnerable groups are vaccinated are only setting themselves up for major disappointment. Yes, we all talk about the need to protect the lives of the vulnerable. However in reality the Government is more worried about hospitals being overwhelmed and it’s impact on healthcare right across the health system.

We’re going to have fairy harsh restrictions until the vaccine is rolled out to 70% + of the population. It’s ****e, but that’s the reality of things.

Yeah but if there is a new variant next winter do we just lock down all of all of next year until everybody is vaccinated for that? At what point do you try to do something else

Windmill100000 · 12-02-2021 10:39AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

You're right there but i can see people starting to care less about that

Who are these people? People you know, polls?

Saying and doing are very different things.

Klonker · 12-02-2021 10:42AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

We were saying the same leading up to Christmas, the ‘shift in mood’ shifted back fairly sharpish once the hospitals became overwhelmed.

Again it comes back to the capacity of hospitals. If they become overwhelmed, care for everyone is impacted and mortality rates increase for all patients Covid or no Covid.

This isn’t just about vaccinating the over 70’s. Government are all too aware that there needs to be restrictions until the late stage of the vaccine rollout. Without them people who are vaccinated will socialise heavily, leading to cases skyrocketing and the hospitals being overwhelmed again. Add in the difficulties surrounding the spread of new variants and it isn’t a pretty picture.

I made this point a couple of months ago and was scoffed at. People who think restrictions will be lifted rapidly as the vulnerable groups are vaccinated are only setting themselves up for major disappointment. Yes, we all talk about the need to protect the lives of the vulnerable. However in reality the Government is more worried about hospitals being overwhelmed and it’s impact on healthcare right across the health system.

We’re going to have fairy harsh restrictions until the vaccine is rolled out to 70% + of the population. It’s ****e, but that’s the reality of things.

I understand your point but after over 70s are vaccinated I don't think they'll be going around socialising everywhere, I just don't see it. Vaccinated or not people should have the same restrictions to follow.

On the hospitals, after vulnerable are vaccinated I cannot see them filling up unless all hell breaks lose in one go like before Christmas opening everything at one time after a period of heavy restrictions. We need to ease them gradually starting in March to let the pent up demand out over a longer period.

And further on the hospitals, so many cases there were picked up in the hospital, this will plummet now that staff are vaccinated, plus a lot less staffing issues due to covid leave. This is already showing up in the data even after first vaccine given only.

Boggles · 12-02-2021 10:43AM

retro:electro wrote: »

I can’t understand why keeping the over 70s locked down until they’re vaccinated isn’t being touted as a viable option.

The largest cohort requiring critical care is the 55-70 age bracket.

The sad reality is if you are over 75 in this country your chances of getting near critical care are slim.

So no, based on reality, if it were even possible, locking up a bunch of people over 70's and letting it rip through the rest is not a viable option.

The HorsesMouth · 12-02-2021 10:46AM

Jesus...Tubs on the radio looking for easing of restrictions. The mood certainly is shifting.....

Sierra Oscar · 12-02-2021 10:47AM

Windmill100000 wrote: »

Who are these people? People you know, polls?

Saying and doing are very different things.

Any person who is in any way connected with the mood of the nation understands that people accepted that restrictions needed to be stepped up after Christmas.

That’s not to say that the very same people will feel restrictions should be lifted in the weeks ahead as the case numbers fall. The ‘shift in mood’ works both ways.

I’m just making the point that we’ve been here before. Clamour for rapid easing of restrictions when cases are falling, resignation that restrictions need to be stepped up when cases skyrocket.

Of course none of this changes the fact that the Government needed to put in place restrictions following expert advise to prevent a collapse of the health system - irrespective of public opinion.

pjohnson · 12-02-2021 10:51AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

They’ll care once their mother or father who is suffering from a suspected heart attack is told their is no place for them in A&E. That’s the cold, hard reality of lifting restrictions rapidly and letting hospitals become overwhelmed.

I wouldn't hold my breath

Windmill100000 · 12-02-2021 10:52AM

Boggles wrote: »

The largest cohort requiring critical care is the 55-70 age bracket.

The sad reality is if you are over 75 in this country your chances of getting near critical care are slim.

So no, based on reality, if it were even possible, locking up a bunch of people over 70's and letting it rip through the rest is not a viable option.

And let's not forget the elderly in the community that receive home help. Some of them three visits a day.

There was over 52,000 people receiving this care in 2019.

There was a waiting list as well of people awaiting the service who are likely being helped by family and neighbours.

LineOfBeauty · 12-02-2021 10:54AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

We were saying the same leading up to Christmas, the ‘shift in mood’ shifted back fairly sharpish once the hospitals became overwhelmed.

Again it comes back to the capacity of hospitals. If they become overwhelmed, care for everyone is impacted and mortality rates increase for all patients Covid or no Covid.

This isn’t just about vaccinating the over 70’s. Government are all too aware that there needs to be restrictions until the late stage of the vaccine rollout. Without them people who are vaccinated will socialise heavily, leading to cases skyrocketing and the hospitals being overwhelmed again. Add in the difficulties surrounding the spread of new variants and it isn’t a pretty picture.

I made this point a couple of months ago and was scoffed at. People who think restrictions will be lifted rapidly as the vulnerable groups are vaccinated are only setting themselves up for major disappointment. Yes, we all talk about the need to protect the lives of the vulnerable. However in reality the Government is more worried about hospitals being overwhelmed and it’s impact on healthcare right across the health system.

We’re going to have fairy harsh restrictions until the vaccine is rolled out to 70% + of the population. It’s ****e, but that’s the reality of things.

Ultimately I agree with what's been said in this comment but there's no way around how mentally exhausting this is every day. You have to give the people something to root for, something to cling on to and the last few weeks has seen the opposite of that. It's seen projected dates of restrictions being eased pushed back, it's seen the first mentions of Christmas 2021 being an "alternate Christmas", it's seen summer holidays abroad in 2021 wiped out, and the creeping notion that even if we can get to 70% vaccination that things like cinemas, pubs, nightclubs wont return or, if they do in the case of cinemas and pubs, it'll be in a socially distanced manner. There's only so much any person can take. They're trying to stretch it out to give the vaccinations a chance to take effect and obviously the potential for variants mutating is what they're most worried about (along with healthcare collapse) but you've got to throw people a few breadcrumbs here and there before September.

JRant · 12-02-2021 10:56AM

Boggles wrote: »

Ireland are well above the EU average on the vaccine roll out and ahead of Britain on fully dosed.

As for giving the mRNA to the over 70s, a decision based on available data and mimicked by a dozen other European countries, in fact they limit it to the under 65's and in 2 countries the under 55's.

I have no idea what incompetence you are referring to.

What we have got in has gone into arms and the mass inoculation of the population with the injecting of a biological substance is being guided by available science.

What would you have done differently there chief?

Last time I checked we were still part of the EU, chief. They've made a complete stones of the vaccine procurement and roll out.

Oh, look, we have a tiny statistic that shows we have something completely meaningless. In relative terms we are miles behind other countries on first doses. The numbers left to be done are eye watering, especially as we are going to be under severe restrictions until everyone is done.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII Read OP For Mod Warnings