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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

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    #662
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Shannon SNOWTAM. 1 mm of wet snow on the runway. Poor braking action.

    A) EINN
    B) 02111001 C) 06 F) 5/5/5 G) 1/1/1 H) 2/2/2
    R) 2 S) 02111100
    T) UREA SPREADING IN OPERATION)

    The 10 am synop has 1 cm of lying snow elsewhere. Temperature 0.0, dewpoint -0.1 °C.

    AAXX 11101 03962 41225 80908 10000 21001 30128 40153 55005 77177 886//
    333 4/001 88705==


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    #663
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Temp is falling slightly in Arklow
    2.1c
    Dp -3.8c
    Wetbulb is -0.6c

    Wind gusting to 55kmh in last 10 mins SE
    I needn't tell you what this feels like...


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    #664
    Tyrone212
    Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    Update to warning here

    A band of snow is likely to arrive into Northern Ireland during the early hours of Saturday with snow continuing here though the day. 1-4 cm of snow is possible widely with 5-10 cm, perhaps up to 15 cm over high ground. Later snow may turn to freezing rain across parts of Northern Ireland bringing an additional ice risk. Whilst there remains a chance of heavy snow for parts of Wales and western Scotland it is more uncertain whether there will be sufficient snow to cause any disruption in these areas. Strong southeasterly winds across the warning area may lead to drifting and blizzard conditions over hills.


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    #665
    Squidvicious
    Registered Users Posts: 479 ✭✭Squidvicious


    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1612998000&zoom=8&lon=-7.81&lat=52.52
    The precipitation seems to be thinning out a bit. Not sure how far North East this will get.


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    #666
    Chalkitdown147
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭Chalkitdown147


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Shannon SNOWTAM. 1 mm of wet snow on the runway. Poor braking action.

    A) EINN
    B) 02111001 C) 06 F) 5/5/5 G) 1/1/1 H) 2/2/2
    R) 2 S) 02111100
    T) UREA SPREADING IN OPERATION)

    The 10 am synop has 1 cm of lying snow elsewhere. Temperature 0.0, dewpoint -0.1 °C.

    AAXX 11101 03962 41225 80908 10000 21001 30128 40153 55005 77177 886//
    333 4/001 88705==

    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1359819714139152384?s=19


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    #667
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Latest TAFs (valid from midday).

    Casement (light snow from 4 - 7 pm)
    TAF EIME 111100Z 1112/1121 12018G32KT 9999 SCT017 BKN028
    BECMG 1115/1117 12015KT
    TEMPO 1116/1119 4000 -SN BKN010
    PROB30 TEMPO 1116/1119 2000 BKN005
    TEMPO 1117/1121 12016G27KT=

    Dublin (only slight chance of light snow from 9 pm, then more definite from midnight to 7 am).
    TAF EIDW 111100Z 1112/1212 13021G34KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030
    TEMPO 1112/1116 12024G39KT
    PROB30 TEMPO 1121/1124 4000 -SN BKN010
    TEMPO 1200/1207 3000 -SN BKN007
    PROB30 TEMPO 1201/1206 1500 BKN003=


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    #668
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Latest TAFs (valid from midday).

    Casement (light snow from 4 - 7 pm)
    TAF EIME 111100Z 1112/1121 12018G32KT 9999 SCT017 BKN028
    BECMG 1115/1117 12015KT
    TEMPO 1116/1119 4000 -SN BKN010
    PROB30 TEMPO 1116/1119 2000 BKN005
    TEMPO 1117/1121 12016G27KT=

    Dublin (only slight chance of light snow from 9 pm, then more definite from midnight to 7 am).
    TAF EIDW 111100Z 1112/1212 13021G34KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030
    TEMPO 1112/1116 12024G39KT
    PROB30 TEMPO 1121/1124 4000 -SN BKN010
    TEMPO 1200/1207 3000 -SN BKN007
    PROB30 TEMPO 1201/1206 1500 BKN003=

    I'm not sure if im reading this right GL, I'm only really new to the TAF readings, but what I gather is, Casement in SCD could start getting light snow showers between 4-7pm, but Dublin airport only another bit north won't see anything until 9pm onwards?

    I guess this shows how slow this LP is really moving over the country? :pac:


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    #669
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    TTLF wrote: »
    I'm not sure if im reading this right GL, I'm only really new to the TAF readings, but what I gather is, Casement in SCD could start getting light snow showers between 4-7pm, but Dublin airport only another bit north won't see anything until 9pm onwards?

    I guess this shows how slow this LP is really moving over the country? :pac:

    Yes. That's how much this band will be stalling.


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    #670
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Shannon airport. Still wet snow on the runway, braking action now good.

    SNOWTAM
    A) EINN
    B) 02111105 C) 06 F) 5/5/5 H) 5/5/5
    R) 5 S) 02111200
    T) CONDITION IMPROVING)


    NOTAM List
    UREA SPREAD ON TAXIWAYS A, B, C, D1, D2, G. AND THE MAIN APRON.
    FROM: Thu 11 Feb 2021 10:25 TO: Thu 11 Feb 2021 15:00

    UREA SPREAD ON RWY 06/24
    FROM: Thu 11 Feb 2021 10:28 TO: Thu 11 Feb 2021 15:00


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    #671
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Temp is falling slightly in Arklow
    2.1c
    Dp -3.8c
    Wetbulb is -0.6c

    Wind gusting to 55kmh in last 10 mins SE
    I needn't tell you what this feels like...

    Dewpoint Inn Arklow has dropped
    Now =4,7c
    Wet bulb -0.9
    Air 2.1c
    Wind gusting 61kmh last 10 mins SE :eek:

    Cloudy


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    #672
    yourdeadwright
    Registered Users Posts: 20,570 ✭✭✭✭yourdeadwright


    From all the current models and form my very little understanding am I correct to say its looking like no Snow will reach North Dublin this weekend

    I think i'm right in saying its just going to make it this far ,


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    #673
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    yourdeadwright wrote: »
    From all the current models and form my very little understanding am I correct to say its looking like no Snow will reach North Dublin this weekend

    I think i'm right in saying its just going to make it this far ,

    The 2nd weather front tomorrow night should reach North Dub as snow

    Temps dropping in Arklow
    1.8c
    Wet bulb -1.1c
    Dp -4.8c

    10 min wind average straight off the sea 30kmh SE


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    #674
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Visibility down to 300 metres in snow at Athenry, 600 m at Mace Head.

    PsMETAR ANRY 111200Z AUTO 10016G26KT 0300NDV -SN OVC009/// 00/M01 1017 MSL=
    PsMETAR MACE 111200Z AUTO 10024G37KT 0600NDV SN OVC004/// M00/M00 1014 MSL=


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    #675
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,738 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    yourdeadwright wrote: »
    From all the current models and form my very little understanding am I correct to say its looking like no Snow will reach North Dublin this weekend

    I think i'm right in saying its just going to make it this far ,

    unlikely to be much in the way of snow in Dublin today. Might be a small dusting for a time later tonight and into tomorrow but I think 1cm to 2cm might be the most for Dublin based on the current models. Unlikely to be lying snow in the city area itself.

    57-780UK.GIF?11-6

    iconeu_uk1-46-52-0.png?11-10

    arpegeuk-45-52-0.png?11-11


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    #676
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    image.jpg

    Looks nasty in Johnstown KK. http://www.laoisweather.com/johnstownkk/image.jpg

    Just a few flakes here in Durrow but my gosh, THAT WIND!!!

    Averaging above 25mph and gusting 40mph (gale)


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    #677
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,980 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Snow is to hit Dublin from the front after this one. This one was always to fizzle out before reaching us. Dublin I think is due tonight, some of tomorrow and then tomorrow night according to met Éireann. That said they have got a lot wrong so far this week
    yourdeadwright wrote: »
    From all the current models and form my very little understanding am I correct to say its looking like no Snow will reach North Dublin this weekend

    I think i'm right in saying its just going to make it this far ,


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    #678
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,534 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Hopefully this, from the ECM 06z, can break through the Dublin mountain shadows on Saturday morning:

    543015.png

    Otherwise the ECM run is not great for Dublin snow prospects:

    modezrpd-20210214-0600-animation.gif


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    #679
    Denny61
    Registered Users Posts: 821 ✭✭✭Denny61


    Very heavy snow here in thurles and its sticking


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    #680
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    SATURDAY - NEW WARNINGS

    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford
    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    30 to 40 mm of rainfall with strong to gale force onshore southeast winds. River and coastal flooding risk.

    Valid: 00:01 Saturday 13/02/2021 to 12:00 Saturday 13/02/2021

    Issued: 12:00 Thursday 11/02/2021

    Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Connacht, Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Snow accumulations of 5 cm possible (more on higher ground), accompanied by fresh to strong southeast winds.

    Valid: 02:00 Saturday 13/02/2021 to 12:00 Saturday 13/02/2021

    Issued: 12:00 Thursday 11/02/2021


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    #681
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,848 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Anything snow from the south or west, very rarely impacts the north east.


    Confidence very low on this one


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    #682
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,861 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Last hurrah of this present cold spell and going out with a bang possibly later Fri into Sat albeit short lived with moderate to heavy in places rain following.


    JbCHI7j.gif

    f82ZRux.png


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    #683
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Latest video forecast if anyone is interested. Snow will continue in the south midlands and west with further accumulations.


    Here it is :)

    https://youtu.be/uHVKb6etg2A


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    #684
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Bone dry in Arklow
    Precip never got past Wexford


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    #685
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,805 ✭✭✭Calibos


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Bone dry in Arklow
    Precip never got past Wexford

    Maybe the cold air proving harder to shift sets us up better for tomorrows band and tonights charts will show that band making slower progress across us or stalling and dumping more and maybe even petering out before the rain back edge hits us...meaning we might get Sunday morning out of the snow before the mild air melts it all.


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    #686
    jackrussel
    Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭jackrussel


    No posts from JS? :)


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    #687
    snowgal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭snowgal


    Snowbie wrote: »
    Latest video forecast if anyone is interested. Snow will continue in the south midlands and west with further accumulations.


    Here it is :)

    https://youtu.be/uHVKb6etg2A

    Interesting.... its showing wet snow near Trim from about 5 onwards, small small amounts but we seem to be RIGHT on the edge of the front, like literally the edge....we'll see..........


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    #688
    UpTheHillFrom
    Registered Users Posts: 28 ✭UpTheHillFrom


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    Bone dry in Arklow
    Precip never got past Wexford

    Bone dry in North Wexford, even when the radar showed activity above, sadly never landed here. But that happens.


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    #689
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 694 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Snowbie wrote: »
    Latest video forecast if anyone is interested. Snow will continue in the south midlands and west with further accumulations.


    Here it is :)

    https://youtu.be/uHVKb6etg2A

    Radar says not really.


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    #690
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    UKMO forecast for our neck of the woods, valid at midnight.

    COT=Coasts
    CLD = Cloud
    LAN = Land
    MTW = Mountain waves
    VSP = Vertical speed
    20KM = Visibility 20 km
    5-7/8 SC/AS, etc. = 5-7 Okta Stratocumulus, Altostratus, etc.
    1500-2500FT/12000-15000 = Cloud base 1500-2500 ft, tops 12000-15000 ft.

    SW OF A LINE DONEGAL TO ABERWYSTWYTH, MOV NE AT 10KT OVER IRELAND, SLOW-MOV ELSEWHERE:

    GEN 20KM WITH 5-7/8SC 3000FT/5000 AND 6-8/8AS 8000FT/12000.
    OCNL, SEA COT FAR SW, 7KM IN RA, WITH 3-7/8ST 700-1200FT/1500 AND 6-8/8SC AND ACAS 1500-2500FT/12000-15000.
    OCNL, 3000M IN RASN, OR RADZ SEA COT FAR SW, WITH 3-7/8ST 400-700FT/1500 AND 6-8/8SC AND ACAS 1500FT/16000.
    ISOL, MAINLY LAN, 800M IN SN, WITH 3-6/8ST 200-700FT/1500 AND 6-8/8SC AND ACAS 1500FT/16000.

    WRNG: HILL FG. MOD ICE AND MOD TURB IN CLD. ISOL SEV ICE IN CLD
    3000FT/10000. MOD, ISOL SEV, TURB BLW 6000FT. MTW MAX VSP 550FPM AT 5000FT.

    UK Extended Outlook (Valid 0600-0600 UTC)
    A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE LIES ACROSS THE FAR SW OF ENGLAND AND FAR W OF NORTHERN IRELAND. ELSEWHERE, A COLD, UNSTABLE SE AIRFLOW CONTINUES, WITH TROUGHS AFFECTING E SCOTLAND AND NE ENGLAND AT TIMES.
    WEAK FRONTAL ZONE: FRONTAL LAYERS WITH ISOL RASN/SN IN NE, OCNL RA OR RADZ IN SW. RISK OF SEV ICE IN CLD.
    ELSEWHERE: GEN NIL SIG WX WITH ISOL SHSN, MAINLY SEA WINDWARD COT.
    FOR E SCOTLAND AND NE ENGLAND, OCNL SHSN AND ISOL HVY SHSN/TSSN WITH ISOL CB.
    WINDS: GEN STRONG SE, BUT MOD AT TIMES IN E. RISK OF SEV TURB AND MTW IN W AND N.


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    #691
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    This gives a real idea on how extensive the colder air is against that front. Going off the reports from Auntysnow and UpTheHillFrom saying it didn't even get to reach Wexford or Wicklow (as of right now)

    As an average, and frankly poor forecaster, I could see this probably going two ways for tomorrow night's low.

    1. With the cold pool of air possibly more inland than models predicted, the new front could stall over Leinster giving higher accumulations, especially over the Wicklow and Leinster Mts.

    2. The front finally "breaks through" the colder air and stalls a little like today's low before breaching into the Irish sea.

    Probably only accumulations of 4-5cm lowland but highland maybe 10cm? It reminds me of a December 2017 where the Wicklow Mts got pasted... except this time no onshore drift ruins it for the E coast.

    We'll see how it goes anyway, even today's low has brought many surprises good and bad across the country. On the bright side, the ICON anyway hasn't downgraded the precipitation for tomorrow as it sweeps the country, the midlands (Offaly etc) might get a decent amount if it worked out for them, but that's just me guessing. :D:P

    The only changes I'm seeing to the ICON is the timing, was supposed to reach Dublin by 11pm tomorrow, now it looks like 3am or 4am Saturday... Do I stay up? or do I wake up early... :)


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