Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

heffoo

Live in Knockananna co Wicklow hopefully should do okay

Paso Fino

I'm not too hopeful being in north coastal Dublin. All the showers missed me today, but apparently friends in Balbriggan had non stop snowball fights today. I'm definitely not at all jealous(!)

ZeroSum76

heffoo wrote: »

Live in Knockananna co Wicklow hopefully should do okay

That far inland in Wicklow you have a better chance than most I would say. Good luck!

Donegal Ken

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The 18Z ICON barely has any snow making it past a line from Mullingar to Dublin tomorrow night. It has more of a focus on Saturday now. It also has a mixed bag of almost all weather types possible; rain, snow, freezing rain (red) and even thunderstorms (pink)!

The latest models indicate Friday night and Saturday morning show could be disruptive for places.

ZeroSum76

ZeroSum76 wrote: »

That far inland in Wicklow you have a better chance than most I would say. Good luck!

Its also got lots of height and adjacent to higher
Along with Aughavanagh and Sally Gap its in Wicklows top 5 snowiest locations

Donegal Ken

AuntySnow wrote: »

Beautiful pic
We've had ice anywhere sheltered all day too in sth wicklow ,never thawed
I notice a lot of the Davis stations up your way were below freezing again well before dark

Yea this morning was down to -6C in places. Seen one station showing -9C in Derry but how correct that was don't know. Between -1C and -4C in Donegal already.

Donegal Ken

BBC Northern Ireland going for a significant fall of snow on Saturday morning

https://twitter.com/newslineweather/status/1359616129161957384

ninebeanrows

HARMONIE numbers @ 6am Friday


Swords 2cm.
Dundrum 5cm
BlackBriars gaff 4cm
Villian aka 'Grapple's' snow shed 9cm
JS 0.2cm
Oneiric's chateau 5cm

18z gfs for saturday certainly puts the cat in with the pigeons

heffoo

AuntySnow wrote: »

Its also got lots of height and adjacent to higher
Along with Aughavanagh and Sally Gap its in Wicklows top 5 snowiest locations

Aunty knows their stuff 😂

Gaoth Laidir

Tomorrow's fronts are fairly ill-defined out to the southwest. Currently some deep convection forming along or behind part of one front but this will fizzle out before reaching the south tomorrow morning. The surface charts look very different. The FAX forecasts have those fronts really stalling until Saturday.

Oneiric 3

AuntySnow wrote: »

My station right now in Arklow

Impressive. Dew point temp got down as low as -7.5c at the met eireann climate station in Arklow earlier:

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/20210210u9et4gmm4ee6zd9pyyb96smhow

Cw85

Funny how we all got invested in this thread because of the chance of snow from an eastely and we now end up getting it from the west. Shows what can change in a few days

Oneiric 3

AuntySnow wrote: »

18z gfs for saturday certainly puts the cat in with the pigeons

Looks oddly like the charts the models were showing earlier in the week for tomorrow, and we know how that turned out.

200motels

https://www.waterfordcityweather.com/

My dewpoint in Arklow is touching -7c now
51% humidity
Wind now gone ESE gusting 35kmh
Fascinating with the wind off the sea,So Rare
It augers well for the snow!
Airtemp is 1.8c

The sea temp of 8c isn't able to do much

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Impressive. Dew point temp got down as low as -7.5c at the met eireann climate station in Arklow earlier:

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/20210210u9et4gmm4ee6zd9pyyb96smhow

That station is actually closer to the sea than mine,its about 1km from the beach
Its located about 6kms Northeast of me beside the Arklow Rugby club

Nqp15hhu

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Yea this morning was down to -6C in places. Seen one station showing -9C in Derry but how correct that was don't know. Between -1C and -4C in Donegal already.

-9c not a chance. We had a streamers overnight

Cw85

Cw85 wrote: »

Funny how we all got invested in this thread because of the chance of snow from an eastely and we now end up getting it from the west. Shows what can change in a few days

But it would be rain from the west without the Easterly

Meteorite58

AROME 18Z rolling out, now showing more an emphasis with falls in Galway, S Mayo, Roscommon, Tipp, parts of Offaly and Laois and some other parts of the midlands. S Kerry, E and N Cork, Waterford and Killkenny all featuring well. Clare, parts of limerick and Wexford also.

noobsnow95

Meteorite58 wrote: »

AROME 18Z rolling out, now showing more an emphasis with falls in Galway, S Mayo, Roscommon, Tipp, parts of Offaly and Laois and some other parts of the midlands. S Kerry, E and N Cork, Waterford and Killkenny all featuring well. Clare, parts of limerick and Wexford also.

Does the Shannon act as a snowshield in Limerick City or is it the lower altitude which results in lower snowfall generally compared to other parts of Limerick?

Meteorite58

American models still quite light tomorrow apart from high ground. Plenty of precipitation accumulations in the S.

kerrycork13

Snowbie wrote: »

Weather forecast done for tomorrow if anyone is interested. I reckon this has upgraded over previous runs. South midlands at risk of highest totals. Fridays event into Saturday morning, Ulster and N Leinster most at risk for now.

https://youtu.be/-FO7MRsCxpE

Really excellent detailed forecast.

Nqp15hhu

Looks kind of marginal in the southern half tomorrow.

Gaoth Laidir

Dublin's latest TAF has absolutely no mention of any precipitation at all until midnight tomorrow night.

TAF EIDW 102300Z 1100/1124 11014KT 9999 FEW020 SCT040
TEMPO 1103/1105 11016G27KT
BECMG 1105/1107 12019G32KT
TEMPO 1113/1121 12022G37KT=

My head's spinning after reading Cork's... Still a bit more of a snowy slant up to mid-afternoon now, with SNRA rather than RASN.

TAF EICK 102300Z 1100/1124 12020G30KT 9999 FEW020 BKN030
BECMG 1105/1107 12025G40KT
BECMG 1105/1107 4000 -RASN BKN008
TEMPO 1107/1121 2500 -RASN BKN003
PROB40 TEMPO 1107/1121 1500 RASN
PROB30 TEMPO 1107/1112 0800 SNRA
PROB40 TEMPO 1112/1115 0800 SNRA
BECMG 1120/1122 12020G30KT
TEMPO 1121/1124 2500 -RADZ BKN004=

Oneiric 3

Those dew point temps moving into south Connacht on Meteorite's chart above look to be closer to be in sleet/cold rain territory than snow.

iagreebut

The Shannon estuary and Cratloe may have a factor and even the Dingle peninsula, then you've the higher terrain in North Clare shielding it from the North West

Meteorite58

noobsnow95 wrote: »

Does the Shannon act as a snowshield in Limerick City or is it the lower altitude which results in lower snowfall generally compared to other parts of Limerick?

I'd imagine what the AROME is showing is snow accumulations on hilly ground like the area in the Map below.

Snowbie

AuntySnow wrote: »

My dewpoint in Arklow is touching -7c now
51% humidity
Wind now gone ESE gusting 35kmh
Fascinating with the wind off the sea,So Rare
It augers well for the snow!
Airtemp is 1.8c

The sea temp of 8c isn't able to do much

You always did get very low Dp there, impressive.

Is Croghan close to you? Are you on the downslope or close by etc

Humberto Salazar

Every chart now is chipping away at the amount of snow we'll get. I've already had a massive 4cm of snow this winter. I don't think I can take another 2cm without a snow shovel.