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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion
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Light sleety rain here near Tralee, a bit of wet snow earlier. Breezy
2.6C
AROME still showing the snow to intensify in the W and midlands in the afternoon / evening and the SE early Fri morning looks like getting wintry precipitation.
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Shannon SNOWTAM. 1 mm of wet snow on the runway. Poor braking action.
A) EINN
02111001 C) 06 F) 5/5/5 G) 1/1/1 H) 2/2/2
R) 2 S) 02111100
T) UREA SPREADING IN OPERATION)
The 10 am synop has 1 cm of lying snow elsewhere. Temperature 0.0, dewpoint -0.1 °C.
AAXX 11101 03962 41225 80908 10000 21001 30128 40153 55005 77177 886//
333 4/001 88705==0 -
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »Shannon SNOWTAM. 1 mm of wet snow on the runway. Poor braking action.
A) EINN 02111001 C) 06 F) 5/5/5 G) 1/1/1 H) 2/2/2
R) 2 S) 02111100
T) UREA SPREADING IN OPERATION)
The 10 am synop has 1 cm of lying snow elsewhere. Temperature 0.0, dewpoint -0.1 °C.
AAXX 11101 03962 41225 80908 10000 21001 30128 40153 55005 77177 886//
333 4/001 88705==
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1359819714139152384?s=190 -
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Shannon airport. Still wet snow on the runway, braking action now good.
SNOWTAM
A) EINN 02111105 C) 06 F) 5/5/5 H) 5/5/5
R) 5 S) 02111200
T) CONDITION IMPROVING)
NOTAM List
UREA SPREAD ON TAXIWAYS A, B, C, D1, D2, G. AND THE MAIN APRON.
FROM: Thu 11 Feb 2021 10:25 TO: Thu 11 Feb 2021 15:00
UREA SPREAD ON RWY 06/24
FROM: Thu 11 Feb 2021 10:28 TO: Thu 11 Feb 2021 15:000 -
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yourdeadwright wrote: »From all the current models and form my very little understanding am I correct to say its looking like no Snow will reach North Dublin this weekend
I think i'm right in saying its just going to make it this far ,
unlikely to be much in the way of snow in Dublin today. Might be a small dusting for a time later tonight and into tomorrow but I think 1cm to 2cm might be the most for Dublin based on the current models. Unlikely to be lying snow in the city area itself.
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Looks nasty in Johnstown KK. http://www.laoisweather.com/johnstownkk/image.jpg
Just a few flakes here in Durrow but my gosh, THAT WIND!!!
Averaging above 25mph and gusting 40mph (gale)0 -
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Latest video forecast if anyone is interested. Snow will continue in the south midlands and west with further accumulations.
Here it is
https://youtu.be/uHVKb6etg2A0 -
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Latest video forecast if anyone is interested. Snow will continue in the south midlands and west with further accumulations.
Here it is
https://youtu.be/uHVKb6etg2A
Interesting.... its showing wet snow near Trim from about 5 onwards, small small amounts but we seem to be RIGHT on the edge of the front, like literally the edge....we'll see..........0 -
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Latest video forecast if anyone is interested. Snow will continue in the south midlands and west with further accumulations.
Here it is
https://youtu.be/uHVKb6etg2A
Radar says not really.0 -
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This gives a real idea on how extensive the colder air is against that front. Going off the reports from Auntysnow and UpTheHillFrom saying it didn't even get to reach Wexford or Wicklow (as of right now)
As an average, and frankly poor forecaster, I could see this probably going two ways for tomorrow night's low.
1. With the cold pool of air possibly more inland than models predicted, the new front could stall over Leinster giving higher accumulations, especially over the Wicklow and Leinster Mts.
2. The front finally "breaks through" the colder air and stalls a little like today's low before breaching into the Irish sea.
Probably only accumulations of 4-5cm lowland but highland maybe 10cm? It reminds me of a December 2017 where the Wicklow Mts got pasted... except this time no onshore drift ruins it for the E coast.
We'll see how it goes anyway, even today's low has brought many surprises good and bad across the country. On the bright side, the ICON anyway hasn't downgraded the precipitation for tomorrow as it sweeps the country, the midlands (Offaly etc) might get a decent amount if it worked out for them, but that's just me guessing.
:P
The only changes I'm seeing to the ICON is the timing, was supposed to reach Dublin by 11pm tomorrow, now it looks like 3am or 4am Saturday... Do I stay up? or do I wake up early... 0 -
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This gives a real idea on how extensive the colder air is against that front. Going off the reports from Auntysnow and UpTheHillFrom saying it didn't even get to reach Wexford or Wicklow (as of right now)
As an average, and frankly poor forecaster, I could see this probably going two ways for tomorrow night's low.
1. With the cold pool of air possibly more inland than models predicted, the new front could stall over Leinster giving higher accumulations, especially over the Wicklow and Leinster Mts.
2. The front finally "breaks through" the colder air and stalls a little like today's low before breaching into the Irish sea.
Probably only accumulations of 4-5cm lowland but highland maybe 10cm? It reminds me of a December 2017 where the Wicklow Mts got pasted... except this time no onshore drift ruins it for the E coast.
We'll see how it goes anyway, even today's low has brought many surprises good and bad across the country. On the bright side, the ICON anyway hasn't downgraded the precipitation for tomorrow as it sweeps the country, the midlands (Offaly etc) might get a decent amount if it worked out for them, but that's just me guessing.:P
The only changes I'm seeing to the ICON is the timing, was supposed to reach Dublin by 11pm tomorrow, now it looks like 3am or 4am Saturday... Do I stay up? or do I wake up early...
Your guess is as good as any one else's.
I hope you get your snow.New Moon
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This gives a real idea on how extensive the colder air is against that front. Going off the reports from Auntysnow and UpTheHillFrom saying it didn't even get to reach Wexford or Wicklow (as of right now)
As an average, and frankly poor forecaster, I could see this probably going two ways for tomorrow night's low.
1. With the cold pool of air possibly more inland than models predicted, the new front could stall over Leinster giving higher accumulations, especially over the Wicklow and Leinster Mts.
2. The front finally "breaks through" the colder air and stalls a little like today's low before breaching into the Irish sea.
Probably only accumulations of 4-5cm lowland but highland maybe 10cm? It reminds me of a December 2017 where the Wicklow Mts got pasted... except this time no onshore drift ruins it for the E coast.
We'll see how it goes anyway, even today's low has brought many surprises good and bad across the country. On the bright side, the ICON anyway hasn't downgraded the precipitation for tomorrow as it sweeps the country, the midlands (Offaly etc) might get a decent amount if it worked out for them, but that's just me guessing.:P
The only changes I'm seeing to the ICON is the timing, was supposed to reach Dublin by 11pm tomorrow, now it looks like 3am or 4am Saturday... Do I stay up? or do I wake up early...Fingers crossed for Friday night into Saturday now.
Looking at the latest models (12z UKMO and GFS), there does seem to be a slight increase in temperatures compared to the 6z, which I think will mean it turns back to sleet and snow that little bit quicker for everyone.
We should all see snow, but those of us on the east coast may want to set the alarm clock early if we want to play in it before it washes away.
This is confusing.0 -
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