2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Timing belt · 11-02-2021 01:14PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Where do they get the deposits number from?
Are they including things like stock brokers, N26, revolut etc.
Most of the money I have saved I have put into equities and pension.
I also have a big chunk just sitting in buckets in N26 and Revolut at the moment before I decide whether to invest it or blow it when covid is over
Pretty sure im not unique.

The central bank collect the data from the regulatory returns from the financial institutions that are licensed in Ireland do yes they should capture your deposits with the exception of Revolut that is awaiting its banking license to be approved I think.

fliball123 · 11-02-2021 01:22PM

Villa05 wrote: »

If as expected a portion of savings are used to buy homes. This will result in further outgoings by the state in the form of ftb grants and shared ownership schemes.

The most likely outlet for spending is foreign holidays as people use their childcare savings to take the family on a much needed break.

People in the rental market are effectively sterilised by the state due to its high cost so unfortunately very few will be partaking in this spending on any sector, nevermind housing

Would be interesting to know what the cost would be if you took out DCC from the calculation.
The cost (210k for a house) seems impressive.

People say we can't scale up.
What if we pooled the people in the best performing councils into one body and provide them with the funding resources to tackle supply in the worst hit areas

We know that 50% of households cannot afford to buy at current prices. A far greater percentage of these will be renting
A person in a good position will apply to the bank that offers them the best deal and are unlikely to apply to other banks once they have obtained the best deal.

A person struggling will apply to multiple banks to see which, if any, will give them the amount they require to purchase.

emmm 50% of households cant afford to buy currently..Where are you getting that stat from??

https://www.averagesalarysurvey.com/ireland (2021)

Average salary in 2021 is 51k
Average median salary is 34k

if you take the lower value the Median as if I take the average people will give out.

So 34k * 2 (as almost all applications are 2 people) = 68k
68 * 3.5 (as this is what the Central banks allow you to borrow) =238k
add in your 10% deposit say 24k (10% for FTB and 20% for others)
so a person on or above the median wage meaning more than 50% of the working population can afford to buy a house for 262k

Myhome.ie currently has over 5700 properties for under 250k in the country. So over half the population can buy currently around half the current online stock for sale on my home..The facts don't agree with your opinion with this regard.

Timing belt · 11-02-2021 01:24PM

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I have wondered the same myself actually.
Maybe there isn't a huge increase of savings at all but a huge increase in where people save eg Prize bonds or some other national saving scheme (that is easily seen). Maybe the money has stayed relatively steady but In the past people would have had way more options to save their money (where these reports can't see ) but with the incredibly low interest rates people might be just saving them in somewhere that is easily seen.

Every possible place you can put money (banks, prize bonds, stock market, property) has seen a significant increase since QE started in 2015.

Whether it is additional saving or people moving funds around to find a better return is debatable but most analysis points to the second and because of this asset prices are rising making people feel wealthier. Just look at the net worth of Irish people since 2015 and see how it rose this isn’t because the stopped spending and saved more (if it was gni* would have dropped) it’s because their assets are worth more

PropQueries · 11-02-2021 01:29PM

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting blog post published by Salesforce Tuesday -

Salesforce declares the 9-to-5 workday dead, will let some employees work remotely from now on

https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/9/22275304/salesfore-remote-work-9-to-5-workday-is-dead-flex-coronavirus

Blended working was never going to take off. It makes absolutely no sense asking employees to come into the office 2 days a week. It will either be fully in the office or fully WFH IMO.

I think this blended working idea came about when the commercial real estate investors started getting worried and were trying to arrive at a conclusion that all existing office space will still be needed post-covid.

Employers didn't fight against this concept because they were still getting their heads around the idea of remote working. But it's definitely either full time in the office or full time WFH going forward and there will be no in between blended model as it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever IMO.

awec · 11-02-2021 01:31PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Blended working was never going to take off. It makes absolutely no sense asking employees to come into the office 2 days a week. It will either be fully in the office or fully WFH IMO.

I think this blended working idea came about when the commercial real estate investors started getting worried and were trying to arrive at a conclusion that all existing office space will still be needed post-covid.

Employers didn't fight against this concept because they were still getting their heads around the idea of remote working. But it's definitely either full time in the office or full time WFH going forward and there will be no in between blended model as it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever IMO.

This is an incredible leap, even for you to take.

Surely the fact that numerous employers have announced blended working suggests it's here for now? One employer announces full wfh and PropQueries is now implying that blended working is dead.

This is why you get a hard time.

PropQueries · 11-02-2021 01:35PM

awec wrote: »

This is an incredible leap, even for you to take.

Surely the fact that numerous employers have announced blended working suggests it's here for now? One employer announces full wfh and PropQueries is now implying that blended working is dead.

This is why you get a hard time.

What is the point in asking staff to come into the office 2 days a week when the employer is more than happy to allow them to WFH the other 3 days?

Makes absolutely no sense and the employees will start to show their frustration fairly quickly if blended working is implemented IMO

awec · 11-02-2021 01:42PM

PropQueries wrote: »

What is the point in asking staff to come into the office 2 days a week when the employer is more than happy to allow them to WFH the other 3 days?

Makes absolutely no sense and the employees will start to show their frustration fairly quickly if blended working is implemented IMO

Because there are benefits to being in the office, and blended gives people the best of both worlds.

I don't know why you think employees will show frustration, not really sure what you are basing this on. Blended working is likely to be extremely popular for those that want to work remotely.

What is particularly bizarre about your take on this is that you are declaring blended working dead based on an article where Salesforce say they'll offer blended work if employees want it.

PropQueries · 11-02-2021 01:53PM

awec wrote: »

Because there are benefits to being in the office, and blended gives people the best of both worlds.

I don't know why you think employees will show frustration, not really sure what you are basing this on. Blended working is likely to be extremely popular for those that want to work remotely.

What is particularly bizarre about your take on this is that you are declaring blended working dead based on an article where Salesforce say they'll offer blended work if employees want it.

Not at all. Actually made the exact same point yesterday (pre-salesforce article) and provided a link to how it already works for large companies like Rabobank and Zurich Insurance down the country:

"True. And, I also think this "blended" WFH/Office idea will be very very temporary.

What's really the point in forcing staff into the office for 2 days a week when the employer is perfectly happy and has obviously no security concerns regarding them working from home the other 3 days?

Here's a good example from 2017 which is way way before full time remote working became mainstream thinking.

The people in this article work in Tralee and work remotely for companies such as Rabobank, Zurich Insurance etc. It's in a hub but shows where it's going IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...ings-1.3113984

awec · 11-02-2021 01:58PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Not at all. Actually made the exact same point yesterday (pre-salesforce article) and provided a link to how it already works for large companies like Rabobank and Zurich Insurance down the country:

"True. And, I also think this "blended" WFH/Office idea will be very very temporary.

What's really the point in forcing staff into the office for 2 days a week when the employer is perfectly happy and has obviously no security concerns regarding them working from home the other 3 days?

Here's a good example from 2017 which is way way before full time remote working became mainstream thinking.

The people in this article work in Tralee and work remotely for companies such as Rabobank, Zurich Insurance etc. It's in a hub but shows where it's going IMO

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...ings-1.3113984

Why do you think Rabo and Zurich are going to be the companies that define the direction here, and not the multitude of significantly larger companies that have announced a blended offering?

Are you sure this is not confirmation bias on your part? Try to find a company that offers remote work, google it, find a few, present this as proof that remote work is the future and that blended has failed.

JohnnyChimpo · 11-02-2021 02:05PM

PropQueries wrote: »

What is the point in asking staff to come into the office 2 days a week when the employer is more than happy to allow them to WFH the other 3 days?

Of all your let's say "niche" opinions, this is the most mystifying so far. It's extremely easy to understand why employers would see utility in having employees to come into office sometimes - for all-hands meetings, training sessions, knowledge sharings, big project milestones, etc.

And lol at the idea that workers will riot over being asked to spend some amount of time in an office. I personally don't see much benefit to being physically present in the office myself, so this isn't me advocating for any corporate strategy, but I have to suspect you don't have a clue about corporate culture.

PropQueries · 11-02-2021 02:07PM

awec wrote: »

Why do you think Rabo and Zurich are going to be the companies that define the direction here, and not the multitude of significantly larger companies that have announced a blended offering?

Are you sure this is not confirmation bias on your part? Try to find a company that offers remote work, google it, find a few, present this as proof that remote work is the future and that blended has failed.

Because we're only 11 months into this mass experiment. Companies have been and will be experimenting with different methods going forward and will very quickly realise that blended working is the one experiment to throw away first. Their employees will be already set up and used to WFH. Mixing and matching just won't work in the real world IMO.

Blended working makes absolutely, zero, zilch etc. sense and I'm sure the larger companies will realise this just as quickly too once (if) they try to implement it IMO

And let's be honest, for the past 20 years in offices, most communication is already done by email etc. even if people are sitting right next to each other. Zoom has just made the face-to-face element completely irrelevant in most cases.

JimmyVik · 11-02-2021 02:14PM

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

Of all your let's say "niche" opinions, this is the most mystifying so far. It's extremely easy to understand why employers would see utility in having employees to come into office sometimes - for all-hands meetings, training sessions, knowledge sharings, big project milestones, etc.

And lol at the idea that workers will riot over being asked to spend some amount of time in an office. I personally don't see much benefit to being physically present in the office myself, so this isn't me advocating for any corporate strategy, but I have to suspect you don't have a clue about corporate culture.

Personally im sick of working at home.
Id rather be in the office.
But when im in the office i might rather be at home

So maybe a couple of days a week in the office, if i was allowed to telework.
Im sure im not alone.
But at the end of the day you do what you are told as a worker bee.
Also I find it easier to work with my team face to face tbh.

jill_valentine · 11-02-2021 02:16PM

PropQueries wrote: »

What is the point in asking staff to come into the office 2 days a week when the employer is more than happy to allow them to WFH the other 3 days?

Makes absolutely no sense and the employees will start to show their frustration fairly quickly if blended working is implemented IMO

It is absolutely the model we're leaning towards, best of both worlds. Employees seem to prefer it to all of either. Breaks up the risk of repetition of WFH, and means the same people aren't getting lumped with all the unglamourous in-office tasks all the time.

awec · 11-02-2021 02:22PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Because we're only 11 months into this mass experiment. Companies have been and will be experimenting with different methods going forward and will very quickly realise that blended working is the one experiment to throw away first. Their employees will be already set up and used to WFH. Mixing and matching just won't work in the real world IMO.

Blended working makes absolutely, zero, zilch etc. sense and I'm sure the larger companies will realise this just as quickly too once (if) they try to implement it IMO

And let's be honest, for the past 20 years in offices, most communication is already done by email etc. even if people are sitting right next to each other. Zoom has just made the face-to-face element completely irrelevant in most cases.

Sorry PropQueries, this is utter rubbish. My guess is it makes zero sense to you because you cannot make it fit into the narrative you want to present.

Blended working will be very popular if it's offered. More people will opt for blended than opt for fully remote. I would not even be remotely surprised if more people opt for fully in the office than opt for fully remote.

Blended working is really just an extension of policies that many of these companies have had for years or even decades.

MacronvFrugals · 11-02-2021 02:25PM

Disagree with you here Props, blended is ideal for most people as it still allows the one or two days a week for team bonding.

In saying that thousands of people know they only need to be in the office one day a week i would imagine it would open up many extra avenues from a property point of view.

Hubertj · 11-02-2021 02:29PM

Villa05 wrote: »

If as expected a portion of savings are used to buy homes. This will result in further outgoings by the state in the form of ftb grants and shared ownership schemes.

The most likely outlet for spending is foreign holidays as people use their childcare savings to take the family on a much needed break.

People in the rental market are effectively sterilised by the state due to its high cost so unfortunately very few will be partaking in this spending on any sector, nevermind housing

Would be interesting to know what the cost would be if you took out DCC from the calculation.
The cost (210k for a house) seems impressive.

People say we can't scale up.
What if we pooled the people in the best performing councils into one body and provide them with the funding resources to tackle supply in the worst hit areas

We know that 50% of households cannot afford to buy at current prices. A far greater percentage of these will be renting
A person in a good position will apply to the bank that offers them the best deal and are unlikely to apply to other banks once they have obtained the best deal.

A person struggling will apply to multiple banks to see which, if any, will give them the amount they require to purchase.

Hopefully the family will stay in an Airbnb when on holidays as it is more cost effective. Although some people seem to think Airbnb is the devil incarnate.
How does someone know they have gotten the best mortgage deal if they don’t shop around?

EireinOZ · 11-02-2021 02:38PM

Hi , just wondering has anybody else been in the same position as us and what was the outcome ? We have recently paid a booking deposit on a house , all going very well on both sides until we found out the vendors own NPPR tax amounting to over 7000. The vendors brought the house in 2005 , live their till 2010 and moved aboard and rented out the house. Now they are saying they have no money to pay off the tax and our solicitor has told us they are applying for an exemption. I'm wondering his anybody else come across this issue?

EireinOZ · 11-02-2021 02:39PM

Hi , just wondering has anybody else been in the same position as us and what was the outcome ? We have recently paid a booking deposit on a house , all going very well on both sides until we found out the vendors own NPPR tax amounting to over 7000. The vendors brought the house in 2005 , live their till 2010 and moved aboard and rented out the house. Now they are saying they have no money to pay off the tax and our solicitor has told us they are applying for an exemption. I'm wondering his anybody else come across this issue?

donnaille · 11-02-2021 02:40PM

awec wrote: »

Sorry PropQueries, this is utter rubbish. My guess is it makes zero sense to you because you cannot make it fit into the narrative you want to present.

Blended working will be very popular if it's offered. More people will opt for blended than opt for fully remote. I would not even be remotely surprised if more people opt for fully in the office than opt for fully remote.

Blended working is really just an extension of policies that many of these companies have had for years or even decades.

Agree, it's far far too early to say how a blended approach will pan put for companies, and employees too. Some will prosper, others perhaps not so much.

I've worked in London for several years at large financial services firms which already offered a blended approach, to some extent - with 2 days wfh being possible. We may see some people push to 3 days and even 4, or alternating weeks - but the office is likely to continue as before for a large cohort.

tigger123 · 11-02-2021 02:44PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Because we're only 11 months into this mass experiment. Companies have been and will be experimenting with different methods going forward and will very quickly realise that blended working is the one experiment to throw away first. Their employees will be already set up and used to WFH. Mixing and matching just won't work in the real world IMO.

Blended working makes absolutely, zero, zilch etc. sense and I'm sure the larger companies will realise this just as quickly too once (if) they try to implement it IMO

And let's be honest, for the past 20 years in offices, most communication is already done by email etc. even if people are sitting right next to each other. Zoom has just made the face-to-face element completely irrelevant in most cases.

This sentence is complete nonsense.

For a lot of people the blended approach gives the perfect mix of cutting down on commuting time and expenses, while still maintaining the social and collaborative element of being in a workplace.

It will also allow organsiations to drastically reduce their rents. Its a win for everyone.

HopsAndJumps · 11-02-2021 02:46PM

awec wrote: »

Sorry PropQueries, this is utter rubbish. My guess is it makes zero sense to you because you cannot make it fit into the narrative you want to present.

Blended working will be very popular if it's offered. More people will opt for blended than opt for fully remote. I would not even be remotely surprised if more people opt for fully in the office than opt for fully remote.

Blended working is really just an extension of policies that many of these companies have had for years or even decades.

There is a plan in our factory, if targets cannot be met. That people that do not need to be there, their job may get outsourced. Why would you pay someone Irish rates of they don't need to be there. That is quite scary.

Its impossible to train people and get them up to speed while working all of the time from home. That's what we found in our area

11-02-2021 02:48PM

My MNC has literally confirmed and is planning on the basis of a 'blended' system. Thinking it'll be all WFH or all office is utter nonsense.

Villa05 · 11-02-2021 03:07PM

Hubertj wrote:

Hopefully the family will stay in an Airbnb when on holidays as it is more cost effective. Although some people seem to think Airbnb is the devil incarnate.

How does someone know they have gotten the best mortgage deal if they donâ€™t shop around?

Letting an entire residential property on air BnB is illegal, as was pointed out earlier there are over 60k holiday homes plus multiple student accomodation units perfect for families. Air BnB has it place, but the laws of the land should be enforced with regard to resedential property

As was pointed out in the quoted post. Those that are in a good position, the following factors determine the next steps

How much do I need
+
Best rate I can get

This info can be obtained prior to application process so the need for multiple applications does not arise

Cyrus · 11-02-2021 03:08PM

schmittel wrote: »

In what is becoming a pattern, yet another of Prop's theories that was lambasted as nonsense on here, turns out to be bang on the money.

From a major mortgage lender this week in the Irish Times:

First-time buyers: Surge in demand may not be all that it seems

a portion may

yeah bang on the money, thats an open and shut case if i ever saw one,

calm down youll do yourself a mischief

l

Hubertj · 11-02-2021 03:12PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Letting an entire residential property on air BnB is illegal, as was pointed out earlier there are over 60k holiday homes plus multiple student accomodation units perfect for families. Air BnB has it place, but the laws of the land should be enforced with regard to resedential property

As was pointed out in the quoted post. Those that are in a good position, the following factors determine the next steps

How much do I need
+
Best rate I can get

This info can be obtained prior to application process so the need for multiple applications does not arise

Ive booked a lovely Airbnb in Kerry for a week in august.

How and where does someone find this information? I applied to more than 1 bank when looking for a mortgage. That is how I found the “best deal”.

cnocbui · 11-02-2021 03:13PM

Anyone else think the government should remove the carbon tax on heating fuels? Given lot's are working from home, heating in this weather has become a necessary cost in earning an income.

Cyrus · 11-02-2021 03:14PM

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I think a smug DART commuting property bull will have to change his dietary requirements from caviar to humble pie when this is all over and do a lot of apologising to Props.

Props has been on this forum for a long time and I really enjoy reading their views. I have a feeling a lot of what they say will end up being the truth.

They get huge stick about their population theory but if you read the below in yesterdays Times, its one of the main points.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/do-not-listen-to-estate-agents-house-prices-will-go-down-not-up-1.4480537

Keep it up Props, i have a feeling we'll be looking back on your posts in a few years and some will be wondering why they didn't take their head out of the sand and listen to you

he has only been here 7-8 months according to himself, youll find ive been posting for over a decade.

im not a property bull either, i am just one of the people on here who is dealing with the reality of whats happening rather than making wild tangential assumptions about the future of mankind and trying to link that back to how property prices will go in 2021 because some of you appear to have forgotten thats what the thread is actually about.

i dont like caviar as it goes, and as for looking back on props posts and wondering why i didnt take my head out of the sand? i own a house, in a place im happy to live in, that i can afford, i dont have any property investments. I am an impartial observer.

You have added very little bar some juvenile cheer leading and baiting, but you have been around before and after the next ban you will be back again, iceman or fridge or whoever you are

Cyrus · 11-02-2021 03:16PM

schmittel wrote: »

The point Props was making and lambasted for was that the uptick could be down to people having more time on their hands, an increase in tyre kicking than genuine demand. A lender is quoted in the IT today confirming exactly the same view.

lambasted :rolleyes:

i also made the point that AIP meant very little anyway and was very easily obtained but you are omitting that.

yagan · 11-02-2021 03:17PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Anyone else think the government should remove the carbon tax on heating fuels? Given lot's are working from home, heating in this weather has become a necessary cost in earning an income.

Wouldn't the money saved by not commuting and eating out more than compensate?

If wages are the same then WFH has already saved loads of money for the employee.

Timing belt · 11-02-2021 03:23PM

yagan wrote: »

Wouldn't the money saved by not commuting and eating out more than compensate?

If wages are the same then WFH has already saved loads of money for the employee.

you would think so but wait till things calm down a bit and you will have civil servants and unions looking for a WFH allowance to pay for heating, electricity, furniture and I would not be surprised if we even see them claiming they need to buy more toilet paper so need to be compensated.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1