2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

decreds

Whilst i don't agree with props comment on the WFH blended approach being completely useless, i have digested some of his posts in this thread and i do think he is going to turn out to be correct with some of his predictions.

I am neither a property bull or bear but plan to buy in less than 2 years after having sold property recently due to a separation. Obviously you would think i would want a massive crash but this isn't the case, if property crashes by more than 30-35% our society will not be in a good place.

I'd take a 10-20% correction any day as it seems the most reasonable adjustment as asset prices are in a bubble that looks like it will pop soon but it is difficult to predict when.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Ive booked a lovely Airbnb in Kerry for a week in august.

Kerry and the West Coast has loads of holiday homes, I'm sure some of them make there way on to air bnb as I say it has it place.

Enjoy your trip

Cyrus

decreds wrote: »

Whilst i don't agree with props comment on the WFH blended approach being completely useless, i have digested some of his posts in this thread and i do think he is going to turn out to be correct with some of his predictions.

I am neither a property bull or bear but plan to buy in less than 2 years after having sold property recently due to a separation. Obviously you would think i would want a massive crash but this isn't the case, if property crashes by more than 30-35% our society will not be in a good place.

I'd take a 10-20% correction any day as it seems the most reasonable adjustment as asset prices are in a bubble that looks like it will pop soon but it is difficult to predict when.

props is saying that it will be 50-75% in the next 2-3 years

so if you like what you read from him hold off on buying.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

lambasted :rolleyes:

Lambasted - to criticise strongly or severely. So, yes - lambasted.

Cyrus wrote: »

i also made the point that AIP meant very little anyway and was very easily obtained but you are omitting that.

Omitted? I quoted you saying "applying for AIP was never difficult".

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

How and where does someone find this information? I applied to more than 1 bank when looking for a mortgage. That is how I found the “best dealâ€.

How much do I need is determined by the applicant

And the best rates are available on price comparison websites amongst others

hometruths

decreds wrote: »

Whilst i don't agree with props comment on the WFH blended approach being completely useless, i have digested some of his posts in this thread and i do think he is going to turn out to be correct with some of his predictions.

I am neither a property bull or bear but plan to buy in less than 2 years after having sold property recently due to a separation. Obviously you would think i would want a massive crash but this isn't the case, if property crashes by more than 30-35% our society will not be in a good place.

I'd take a 10-20% correction any day as it seems the most reasonable adjustment as asset prices are in a bubble that looks like it will pop soon but it is difficult to predict when.

If somebody is a young public sector worker - i.e with very secure job - with good savings, I really would not blame them for saying "I hope prices crash 30-40% plus."

And for all the folk who say "That's crazy, super selfish to be hoping for an economic downturn" I'd reply that it was every man for themselves on the way up, why should those who missed the gains on the way up worry about sharing the pain on the way down?

JimmyVik

Villa05 wrote: »

Letting an entire residential property on air BnB is illegal, as was pointed out earlier there are over 60k holiday homes plus multiple student accomodation units perfect for families. Air BnB has it place, but the laws of the land should be enforced with regard to resedential property

As was pointed out in the quoted post. Those that are in a good position, the following factors determine the next steps

How much do I need
+
Best rate I can get

This info can be obtained prior to application process so the need for multiple applications does not arise

You have to apply to each individually to see if you get one of their exemptions.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

If somebody is a young public sector worker - i.e with very secure job - with good savings, I really would not blame them for saying "I hope prices crash 30-40% plus."

And for all the folk who say "That's crazy, super selfish to be hoping for an economic downturn" I'd reply that it was every man for themselves on the way up, why should those who missed the gains on the way up worry about sharing the pain on the way down?

No guarantee they'd get a mortgage if it gets as bad as you suggest.

That's the problem when the arse falls out of things. Your own circumstances may remain unaffected, but the game has now got different rules.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

props is saying that it will be 50-75% in the next 2-3 years

so if you like what you read from him hold off on buying.

Wasnt that what he said last year? So only a year or 2 to wait

Villa05

decreds wrote:

, if property crashes by more than 30-35% our society will not be in a good place.

That concept works both ways. The happy medium would be affordable with inflation linked price adjustments

Policy makers seem to forget that increases and collapse are linked

When a collapse occurs the taxpayer pays for it, when the rises occur the tax payer also pays for it

This cycle needs to stop or we will be knocking on the bankruptcy door again

hometruths

awec wrote: »

No guarantee they'd get a mortgage if it gets as bad as you suggest.

That's the problem when the arse falls out of things. Your own circumstances may remain unaffected, but the game has now got different rules.

Of course, no guarantee of anything. Banks will tighten rules and only lend to the safest candidates - i.e public sector workers with good savings which is exactly why I used that example.

This idea that no point waiting until the the market crashes because there will be no properties to buy or it will be impossible to get a mortgage is a complete myth.

Cyrus

JimmyVik wrote: »

Wasnt that what he said last year? So only a year or 2 to wait

yes, im sure his many cheerleaders will be ready to pass judgement should it come to pass, or not as the case may be.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Lambasted - to criticise strongly or severely. So, yes - lambasted.



Omitted? I quoted you saying "applying for AIP was never difficult".

i know what lambasted means thanks. I didnt lambast him. It seems no one can disagree with oul props but everyone else is fair game :rolleyes:

lest anyone forgets the core tenet of his argument is that we are heading for a 50-75% drop in property prices in the near term, everything he says needs to be read with that in mind. If you agree with, thats your perogative, but if you don't you need to bear that in mind when he posts something and draws a conclusion.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

i know what lambasted means thanks. I didnt lambast him. It seems no one can disagree with oul props but everyone else is fair game :rolleyes:

It seems plenty can disagree with oul props. Very few seem to be able to subsequently say actually maybe you had a point Props. :rolleyes:

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Cyrus wrote: »

props is saying that it will be 50-75% in the next 2-3 years

so if you like what you read from him hold off on buying.

Lol 75pc. As if. People have been saying prices will fall on boards for 10 years. Eventually they may slow down but won't be any 10pc drops or even close.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

It seems plenty can disagree with oul props. Very few seem to be able to subsequently say actually maybe you had a point Props. :rolleyes:

if i come across something that shows he did i will, the article you posted is hardly a smoking gun :rolleyes:

Given that i disagree so strongly with his over arching assumption about where the market is going (i think myself we will see relative stagnation, low single digit decreases at the > 600k end in dublin and some continued increases outside dublin in the markets that are still recovering from a decade ago) i find i dont see much sense in what he posts.

the latest revelation that a hybrid wfh policy wont materialise is a doozy.

Cyrus

MattS1 wrote: »

Lol 75pc. As if. People have been saying prices will fall on boards for 10 years. Eventually they may slow down but won't be any 10pc drops or even close.

i agree

but thats what he is saying, and i presume thats what those who have his back also believe.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Cyrus wrote: »

i agree

but thats what he is saying, and i presume thats what those who have his back also believe.

Tbf boards.ie is full of doomsdayers. It's not in anyway close to representative as there's only 3k users out of the 6m population

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

That concept works both ways. The happy medium would be affordable with inflation linked price adjustments

Policy makers seem to forget that increases and collapse are linked

When a collapse occurs the taxpayer pays for it, when the rises occur the tax payer also pays for it

This cycle needs to stop or we will be knocking on the bankruptcy door again

But would the taxpayer be on the hook this time? The only purpose for keeping property prices high in the short term appears to be so NAMA can come back and say they made a €4billion "profit" in the next year or two.

If prices fell e.g. 30%, that would only bring us back to maybe c. 2014/2015 prices?

If prices fell by e.g. 50% to 70%, there's only benefits for the wider economy IMO

And at the end of the day, the state is just going to take many of our houses for some version of the fair deal scheme at the end anyway IMO

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

i agree

but thats what he is saying, and i presume thats what those who have his back also believe.

That's ridiculous.

It's possible to disagree with his projections of 50%+ and still acknowledge he has a point in his assumptions re obsolescence, immigration, people with extra time being more likely to apply for AIP, etc take your pick.

To say you don't see sense in any of his posts because you strongly disagree with his headline beliefs is why people say you have your head in the sand.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

That's ridiculous.

It's possible to disagree with his projections of 50%+ and still acknowledge he has a point in his assumptions re obsolescence, immigration, people with extra time being more likely to apply for AIP, etc take your pick.

To say you don't see sense in any of his posts because you strongly disagree with his headline beliefs is why people say you have your head in the sand.

To be clear, i dont find any common ground with him on any of the posts i have disagreed with, i havent disagreed with everything he has said.

but you have to look at the motivation behind the posts when someone draws a conclusion,

its a bit foolish not to.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

But would the taxpayer be on the hook this time? The only purpose for keeping property prices high in the short term appears to be so NAMA can come back and say they made a €4billion "profit" in the next year or two.

If prices fell e.g. 30%, that would only bring us back to maybe c. 2014/2015 prices?

If prices fell by e.g. 50% to 70%, there's only benefits for the wider economy IMO

And at the end of the day, the state is just going to take many of our houses for some version of the fair deal scheme at the end anyway IMO

who looses money if prices drop 50 - 70%...the banks...who owns the banks? :rolleyes:

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

But would the taxpayer be on the hook this time? The only purpose for keeping property prices high in the short term appears to be so NAMA can come back and say they made a €4billion "profit" in the next year or two.

They made a profit when you ignore the 35 billion quid that disappeared in smoke

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

yes, im sure his many cheerleaders will be ready to pass judgement should it come to pass, or not as the case may be.

Eventually we will all be right.
Props moreso than the rest of us because he has so many different theories more of them should be right eventually than someone who only posts one or two

decreds

Cyrus wrote: »

props is saying that it will be 50-75% in the next 2-3 years

so if you like what you read from him hold off on buying.

You've let your disdain for his general opinion cloud your critical thinking.


Re-read my post, i said i agree with some of his predictions and then you go ahead and quote probably his most extreme prediction.



I have seen stranger things happen but 75% is a bit much, i would be waiting awhile. Drops will come though

decreds

schmittel wrote: »

If somebody is a young public sector worker - i.e with very secure job - with good savings, I really would not blame them for saying "I hope prices crash 30-40% plus."

And for all the folk who say "That's crazy, super selfish to be hoping for an economic downturn" I'd reply that it was every man for themselves on the way up, why should those who missed the gains on the way up worry about sharing the pain on the way down?

I agree with you as someone in their mid 30's i am of the opinion that the older generation ****ed us over and part of me would like to get one up on them, but ultimately, since i've had kids i don't wish an extreme crash but i would welcome alot more sanity in the market in the form of a correction and then some stability.



If prices crashed 30% and society was not damaged too much i would welcome this with open arms.

Timing belt

JimmyVik wrote: »

Eventually we will all be right.
Props moreso than the rest of us because he has so many different theories more of them should be right eventually than someone who only posts one or two

If you throw enough sh1tt some of it will always stick lol

decreds

MattS1 wrote: »

Lol 75pc. As if. People have been saying prices will fall on boards for 10 years. Eventually they may slow down but won't be any 10pc drops or even close.

You clearly don't have much life experience if you can't fathom anywhere near close to a 10% drop in prices within a market which is already over priced and at the tail end of a decade long bubble.

HansKroenke

Blended WFH is what today's jaded workers are saying they want but I think they are getting a bit nostalgic about their office and maybe a bit of cabin fever with WFH. I've been in and out of my office since June, but on the days when we had more than a handful in I felt it was distracting and annoying to have so many people around, a lot of small talk, queuing for toilets, coffee machine etc. The only reason I went in was due to cabin fever at home. But that is due to covid restrictions meaning there is no social life possible outside of the home at the moment to get a break from work.

Full time WFH, like we all do now, with a blended option for those that want it (by blended I mean within a week there is a mix of WFH, not blended as in a week a month or a day every two weeks in the office). As such, I somewhat agree with the poster that full time WFH is going to be the norm for a lot of places with a blended option for those that want it, but not driven by a strong need from the employer.

Just reading again through the Government's National Remote Work Strategy, it is quite clear that all efforts will be made to promote it among employers, create the physical infrastructure to enhance it and also the legal framework to give it certainty.

SmokyMo

- Economies have been booming last 10 years.. Goverment did zero to take advantage of the rising tide. House prices most likely wont collapse by 50%+ but will they go down.. Anyone's guess.
- Bigger risk is people are over leveraged on the mortgage and will not keep up with repayments when interest rates will go up which most likely what will happen. Other factors like job security will be affected etc..
- Funds holding hundreds of apartments might liquidated their assets flooding the market once they ll be able to get better/safer yields elsewhere.
- In addition to that since Ireland's economy run by illiterate bureaucrats, it is extremely fragile. Tech sector is begging tip over and once it begins to decline and it'll steam roll downhill with the rest of stock market.

This can happen next month, next year, next couple years... nobody really knows.. just needs the right catalyst.

Every time there is impending bubble/crises they say "this time is different" but it never really is.