2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

awec

HansKroenke wrote: »

Blended WFH is what today's jaded workers are saying they want but I think they are getting a bit nostalgic about their office and maybe a bit of cabin fever with WFH. I've been in and out of my office since June, but on the days when we had more than a handful in I felt it was distracting and annoying to have so many people around, a lot of small talk, queuing for toilets, coffee machine etc. The only reason I went in was due to cabin fever at home. But that is due to covid restrictions meaning there is no social life possible outside of the home at the moment to get a break from work.

Full time WFH, like we all do now, with a blended option for those that want it (by blended I mean within a week there is a mix of WFH, not blended as in a week a month or a day every two weeks in the office). As such, I somewhat agree with the poster that full time WFH is going to be the norm for a lot of places with a blended option for those that want it, but not driven by a strong need from the employer.

Just reading again through the Government's National Remote Work Strategy, it is quite clear that all efforts will be made to promote it among employers, create the physical infrastructure to enhance it and also the legal framework to give it certainty.

So after WFH for an entire year, workers are getting jaded with cabin fever and want to go back to the office.

But this suggests that what workers really want, but just haven't realised yet, is full WFH. This makes no sense.

People are talking like blended work is something new, some policy or way of working that's being trialled. Blended work has been in use for a long, long time. The difference now is rather than spend the majority of time in the office with some at home, people will have the option to spend the majority at home with some in the office.

This is actually what people want. It will be very popular. I'll say it again, a LOT more people will go for the hybrid model than will go fully remote.

SmokyMo

HansKroenke wrote: »

Blended WFH is what today's jaded workers are saying they want but I think they are getting a bit nostalgic about their office and maybe a bit of cabin fever with WFH. I've been in and out of my office since June, but on the days when we had more than a handful in I felt it was distracting and annoying to have so many people around, a lot of small talk, queuing for toilets, coffee machine etc. The only reason I went in was due to cabin fever at home. But that is due to covid restrictions meaning there is no social life possible outside of the home at the moment to get a break from work.

Full time WFH, like we all do now, with a blended option for those that want it (by blended I mean within a week there is a mix of WFH, not blended as in a week a month or a day every two weeks in the office). As such, I somewhat agree with the poster that full time WFH is going to be the norm for a lot of places with a blended option for those that want it, but not driven by a strong need from the employer.

Just reading again through the Government's National Remote Work Strategy, it is quite clear that all efforts will be made to promote it among employers, create the physical infrastructure to enhance it and also the legal framework to give it certainty.

I see WFH playing scenario playing out where high talent/performance employees will be in the office mixing with management/execs. Over time if you want to move up in your career you'll desperate to get an invite into the office.. Itll revert to the mean. There ll be separation of workers by class.

Just a speculation though.

Cyrus

decreds wrote: »

You've let your disdain for his general opinion cloud your critical thinking.


Re-read my post, i said i agree with some of his predictions and then you go ahead and quote probably his most extreme prediction.



I have seen stranger things happen but 75% is a bit much, i would be waiting awhile. Drops will come though

this is a thread about the property market, its not his most extreme opinion, its his actual opinion on how prices will go over the next 12-24 months. The other opinions arent directly related to property, they are tangential to support his prediction as it relates to property prices.

Marius34

SmokyMo wrote: »

- Economies have been booming last 10 years.. Goverment did zero to take advantage of the rising tide. House prices most likely wont collapse by 50%+ but will they go down.. Anyone's guess.
- Bigger risk is people are over leveraged on the mortgage and will not keep up with repayments when interest rates will go up which most likely what will happen. Other factors like job security will be affected etc..
- Funds holding hundreds of apartments might liquidated their assets flooding the market once they ll be able to get better/safer yields elsewhere.
- In addition to that since Ireland's economy run by illiterate bureaucrats, it is extremely fragile. Tech sector is begging tip over and once it begins to decline and it'll steam roll downhill with the rest of stock market.

This can happen next month, next year, next couple years... nobody really knows.. just needs the right catalyst.

Every time there is impending bubble/crises they say "this time is different" but it never really is.

This crisis is different. It passed 1 year since the start of crisis. So it really is.

cnocbui

Marius34 wrote: »

This crisis is different. It passed 1 year since the start of crisis. So it really is.

And it's caused the value of my house to escalate like nothing else in the past decade.

Timing belt

SmokyMo wrote: »

- Bigger risk is people are over leveraged on the mortgage and will not keep up with repayments when interest rates will go up which most likely what will happen. Other factors like job security will be affected etc..

CBI rules are there to protect against over leverage....if rates are to rise substantially there will be mass unemployment as companies go bust as they are unable to service the debt that they have. Added on top of this the stock market crash would wipe out billions so The impact on mortgage holders would be the last thing most people would need to worry about. It is highly unlikely that the central banks would raise rates in such an event even if we did see inflation. The only way I can see rates rising is if the central banks do so to provide a buffer for future crisis's but at the same time they would increase QE to keep Bond yields low.

- Funds holding hundreds of apartments might liquidated their assets flooding the market once they ll be able to get better/safer yields elsewhere.

Yields have not dropped (yet) like other asset classes and provide a good return... if rates were to rise you would see the money leave the stock market and go into shorter dated bonds as inflation would be the most like cause of rising rates... property provides a good hedge for inflation so I don't think you would see a mass sell off of property IMO.

HansKroenke

awec wrote: »

So after WFH for an entire year, workers are getting jaded with cabin fever and want to go back to the office.

But this suggests that what workers really want, but just haven't realised yet, is full WFH. This makes no sense.

No, not at all. The next part of my post after the quoted part mentions why I think that people think they want the office now but won't once they have the office there to go back to. It is due to zero social life outside the home being possible at the moment. Therefore, right now people think they want to be back in the office but that is just to break up the monotony of existence at the moment. This was my own personal experience but on weeks when I went in 2/3 times in the week and others seemed to be doing the same, I actually found I wished I didn't bother coming in as there was a lot of small talk which is actually very distracting when you're used to WFH, busy cafes for coffee and lunch, having to actually commute home was actually a bit if a pain etc. I've completely stopped going in since Christmas as the weather and dark mornings are not even worth it. Even in these covid times, I've had the chance to go back and see what it is like to have a blended approach but I have to say I would lean more towards full time WFH, showing face in the office once per month.

Blended is going to be the option for the employees or else full time WFH, again at the option of employees, not the employer, for the approximately 25% of the workforce who can WFH. That is going to be the norm IMO.

jill_valentine

SmokyMo wrote: »

I see WFH playing scenario playing out where high talent/performance employees will be in the office mixing with management/execs. Over time if you want to move up in your career you'll desperate to get an invite into the office.. Itll revert to the mean. There ll be separation of workers by class.

Just a speculation though.

I've seen this suggested a lot, but from my personal perspective, in practice the worker bee vs management WFHing dynamic is inverted to what you might expect. Management work lends itself far better to WFH and managers are far more likely to give themselves permission to WFH to start with. And, payscale considered, they're more likely to have comfortable/purpose use workspace.

I haven't seen my manager in the office since August. A friend of mine got a job as a contractor for a massive tech company last year - he's never met a single one of their supervisors/managers. Just other contractors.

There's no glamour or martyrdom in coming in, because it's associated with the simple gruntwork the WFH'ing staff need done while they're doing the conceptual big brain stuff from home. The office is essentially just the factory floor, for the most part.

I really don't think coming in is going to be something people do to show off - there's nobody important there to see them.

SmokyMo

Marius34 wrote: »

This crisis is different. It passed 1 year since the start of crisis. So it really is.

Maybe that's why they call it a 'syndrome' because you convince yourself no, this time is different.

Economies are life on support from CBs with QEs.. this, can only continue for so long before it stops or their effect wears off. The longer it goes the deeper the dive. This could be decade long in the making so 1 year could be too small of a scale.

Timing belt

SmokyMo wrote: »

Maybe that's why they call it a 'syndrome' because you convince yourself no, this time is different.

Economies are life on support from CBs with QEs.. this, can only continue for so long before it stops or their effect wears off. The longer it goes the deeper the dive. This could be decade long in the making so 1 year could be too small of a scale.

Economies are on life support since the 08 crash and one could argue that it has been longer as for the past 30 years rate cuts have been the oxygen that have been keeping economies alive. Will it crash... yes eventually but it may not be for another 10/20 years as Central Banks will keep propping up the economies.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Economies are on life support since the 08 crash and one could argue that it has been longer as for the past 30 years rate cuts have been the oxygen that have been keeping economies alive. Will it crash... yes eventually but it may not be for another 10/20 years as Central Banks will keep propping up the economies.

By the sounds of things your belief is the whole house of cards will carry on as long as CBS keep printing and keep rates low, which you think will be for at least the medium term? I.e 10 years +. Is that a fair comment?

To clarify I mean this is what you think is most likely to pan out? Not trying to be a smart Alec, genuinely interested to know what you genuinely think is most likely.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

By the sounds of things your belief is the whole house of cards will carry on as long as CBS keep printing and keep rates low, which you think will be for at least the medium term? I.e 10 years +. Is that a fair comment?

To clarify I mean this is what you think is most likely to pan out? Not trying to be a smart Alec, genuinely interested to know what you genuinely think is most likely.

I don’t know what will happen.. CBS will be printing money for at least 30 years even if they do no new QE as tapering of existing QE will take a very long time without crashing the markets. I think they will use new printed money in a targeted fashion in the green economy.

There will be new crisis’s in the future and how these are dealt with is unknown but CBS will want fire power to deal with these so how they go about that is the big open question.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

I don’t know what will happen.. CBS will be printing money for at least 30 years even if they do no new QE as tapering of existing QE will take a very long time without crashing the markets. I think they will use new printed money in a targeted fashion in the green economy.

There will be new crisis’s in the future and how these are dealt with is unknown but CBS will want fire power to deal with these so how they go about that is the big open question.

Whatever you say about Prop at least he is not shy about saying what he thinks is most likely to happen!

SmokyMo

Timing belt wrote: »

Economies are on life support since the 08 crash and one could argue that it has been longer as for the past 30 years rate cuts have been the oxygen that have been keeping economies alive. Will it crash... yes eventually but it may not be for another 10/20 years as Central Banks will keep propping up the economies.

Yes in theory it could.. But I think black swan or sequence of will put an end to that. 30 years is far too long.. lot of things will happen.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But would the taxpayer be on the hook this time? The only purpose for keeping property prices high in the short term appears to be so NAMA can come back and say they made a €4billion "profit" in the next year or two.

If prices fell e.g. 30%, that would only bring us back to maybe c. 2014/2015 prices?

If prices fell by e.g. 50% to 70%, there's only benefits for the wider economy IMO

And at the end of the day, the state is just going to take many of our houses for some version of the fair deal scheme at the end anyway IMO

Wow really so you reckon people who have bought over the last 5/6 years lost up to 70% so thrown into really bad negative equity and you think there is only benefit for the wider economy. For this to happen the economy will of had to have jumped off a cliff without a parachute.. How long do you think people will continue paying a mortgage on a house that has lost 70% do you think they will all just say feck it I will just keep paying when they know they can just stop paying and stay there and who picks up that tab? This has got to be one of the most blinkered statements you have made.

HansKroenke

Timing belt wrote: »

I don’t know what will happen.. CBS will be printing money for at least 30 years even if they do no new QE as tapering of existing QE will take a very long time without crashing the markets. I think they will use new printed money in a targeted fashion in the green economy.

There will be new crisis’s in the future and how these are dealt with is unknown but CBS will want fire power to deal with these so how they go about that is the big open question.

I think the political landscape will change before the bubble bursts and people will try to blame the new wave of politicians for popping it. FFG have less than 3 years to make a meaningful dent in the housing crisis or else there is another 4 years of additional votes for SF from the last election, which of course could be a significant change in Ireland to see a new party in power. The ramifications of that will of course be dramatic.

fliball123

decreds wrote: »

You clearly don't have much life experience if you can't fathom anywhere near close to a 10% drop in prices within a market which is already over priced and at the tail end of a decade long bubble.

By what measure is it overpriced?? Can you show any proof of a bubble??

Timing belt

SmokyMo wrote: »

Yes in theory it could.. But I think black swan or sequence of will put an end to that. 30 years is far too long.. lot of things will happen.

I agree that lots of things will/could happen before then as history has a way of repeating itself but predicting these is near on impossible. For the next year I see house prices in Ireland rising by 10% as I said back in January.... It won't be 10% across the board as some areas are already maxed out in my opinion such as DLR/Wicklow. Over the next 2-5 years is anyone's guess as it is highly likely that we will be in another crisis by then due to the increased risk taking by investors.

Villa05

JimmyVik wrote:

You have to apply to each individually to see if you get one of their exemptions.

I know but if your in a good position as stated you don't need an exemption

Point is being lost in the thread

Marius34 wrote:

This crisis is different. It passed 1 year since the start of crisis. So it really is.

A dead cat ressurection ðŸ˜

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

I know but if your in a good position as stated you don't need an exemption

Point is being lost in the thread


A dead cat ressurection ðŸ˜

You can only get a dead cat bounce if prices have dropped and they have not dropped in any meaningful way over the last 2 or 3 years and the definition of a bounce is they dont go higher than what they were before the bounce

Villa05

fliball123 wrote:

You can only get a dead cat bounce if prices have dropped and they have not dropped in any meaningful way over the last 2 or 3 years and the definition of a bounce is they dont go higher than what they were before the bounce

Post was in relation to the economy/stock market

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

Post was in relation to the economy/stock market

ahh ok cool

decreds

schmittel wrote: »

Whatever you say about Prop at least he is not shy about saying what he thinks is most likely to happen!

When i first read some of Props posts, the following quote from Warren Buffet came to mind:


"What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact"



I find the people opposed to his opinions to his opinions (property bulls) do the exact same thing, it's quite clear none of us know what will happen but if i had to put money on it a lot more of Props predictions will come to fruition within the next 5 years.


I see he also got banned for a short period, wtf, talk about censorship lol.

decreds

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think the political landscape will change before the bubble bursts and people will try to blame the new wave of politicians for popping it. FFG have less than 3 years to make a meaningful dent in the housing crisis or else there is another 4 years of additional votes for SF from the last election, which of course could be a significant change in Ireland to see a new party in power. The ramifications of that will of course be dramatic.

Nail on the head, we may a desperate attempt to ramp up supply in 2023, by then it could be too late and if SF come to power this may be the catalyst to a crash. I hope i am wrong though.

hometruths

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think the political landscape will change before the bubble bursts and people will try to blame the new wave of politicians for popping it. FFG have less than 3 years to make a meaningful dent in the housing crisis or else there is another 4 years of additional votes for SF from the last election, which of course could be a significant change in Ireland to see a new party in power. The ramifications of that will of course be dramatic.

I think the threat of political change will burst the bubble.

Assuming Covid is well behind us, the next election will be won and lost on housing. If FF/FG keep up the current act re housing, they will only make things worse, meanwhile SF will only grow stronger.

There is significant supply waiting in the wings, and I suspect 18 months or so before likely election date - sometime in 2023 - this supply will start to come on stream as property owners weigh up the risk/rewards of being a landlord or holding investment property/second homes in an SF government. Downsizers will similiarly weigh up their options.

This could be a cascade of supply at exactly the same time when would be investor buyers may choose to play it cautiously pending outcome of election.

So the situation could change very quickly from tight supply to over supply.

L1011

decreds wrote: »

I see he also got banned for a short period, wtf, talk about censorship lol.

Discussing moderation on-thread is not acceptable. You appear to be new here, so this is a warning rather than the normal action for doing so

SmokyMo

jill_valentine wrote: »

I've seen this suggested a lot, but from my personal perspective, in practice the worker bee vs management WFHing dynamic is inverted to what you might expect. Management work lends itself far better to WFH and managers are far more likely to give themselves permission to WFH to start with. And, payscale considered, they're more likely to have comfortable/purpose use workspace.

I haven't seen my manager in the office since August. A friend of mine got a job as a contractor for a massive tech company last year - he's never met a single one of their supervisors/managers. Just other contractors.

There's no glamour or martyrdom in coming in, because it's associated with the simple gruntwork the WFH'ing staff need done while they're doing the conceptual big brain stuff from home. The office is essentially just the factory floor, for the most part.

I really don't think coming in is going to be something people do to show off - there's nobody important there to see them.

For business going with full hybrid model I suspect this will happen if you choose to work only from home compared to someone who goes to the office 80% of time.
https://www.marketcrumbs.com/post/salesforce-says-the-9-to-5-workday-is-dead

- For business critical and revenue enabling lines, management will be in the office because execs will be in the office.
- if I am in the office too, I ll be the one getting pulled into impromptu meetings, discussion, handing critical situation, interacting, brainstorming etc
- If you wfh permanent you ll be reduced to a contractor over time. Like your friend, you ll never even see your manager's face.
- This will cluster talent into groups who is critical to business v not. Remote worker wont be deemed essential.

- (hot take) Take it a step further, years down the line, it will be looked at as a promotion to be able to work in the office.

Wfh has been a thing in tech sector for ages, there is no novelty in that. Vast majority still chose to go in most of the week. I dont know the answer but is there a successful company that is fully remote?

MacronvFrugals

schmittel wrote: »

I think the threat of political change will burst the bubble.

Assuming Covid is well behind us, the next election will be won and lost on housing. If FF/FG keep up the current act re housing, they will only make things worse, meanwhile SF will only grow stronger.

There is significant supply waiting in the wings, and I suspect 18 months or so before likely election date - sometime in 2023 - this supply will start to come on stream as property owners weigh up the risk/rewards of being a landlord or holding investment property/second homes in an SF government. Downsizers will similiarly weigh up their options.

I get the impression if SF get anywhere near government and cant increase supply quickly they will have no problem 'kneecapping landlords' whether that be small time or institutional, i agree with you if the polls are going one way a large amount of supply will enter the market.

SmokyMo

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I get the impression if SF get anywhere near government and cant increase supply quickly they will have no problem 'kneecapping landlords' whether that be small time or institutional, i agree with you if the polls are going one way a large amount of supply will enter the market.

As opposed to covering up mass burials of babies in back gardens... oh and selling the whole country to foreign investment in return for zero tax....

MacronvFrugals

SmokyMo wrote: »

As opposed to covering up mass burials of babies in back gardens... oh and selling the whole country to foreign investment in return for zero tax....

The thing people on here forget is that 'Kneecapping landlords' (metaphorically of course) will look very appealing to a great number of people come February 2025 if FF/FG dont start becoming serious about tackling housing issues.

Also you don't need to tell me those things, i know very well who presided over a Catholic theocracy in this country.