2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

10-02-2021 10:35AM

awec wrote: »

It's not being sneered at, but it's a small rural town. It is the notion that everyone living in the city is dying to get that move to the small rural town, only held back by the chains of the office commute, that is nonsensical.

What is even more bizarre is this is coming off the back of an article that suggested 90% of FTBs in the city were not considering leaving!

Agreed that the poster in question isnt putting forward anything much of substance but i also think the case will hold true for a fair amount of people.

There will be movement out of the cities until the balance of affordability/"livability" is found again, if that second term is even a word

awec · 10-02-2021 10:35AM

Hubertj wrote: »

Wexford is very nice. My parents spent a lot of time there after retirement as they had a holiday home in Rosslare. It improved a lot over the last 25 years. Then with the N11.... also accessible to warterford and Kilkenny.....but is there a Starbucks.

Starbucks? That is so 2010 Hubertj...

It's all about the small independent self-roasters these days!

TheSheriff · 10-02-2021 10:36AM

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

Of all the claims on this thread, this is one of the least OT.

People need to wake up a small bit, not everyone living in Dublin is doing so through gritted teeth every day.

10-02-2021 10:37AM

TheSheriff wrote: »

Of all the claims on this thread, this is one of the least OT.

People need to wake up a small bit, not everyone living in Dublin is doing so through gritted teeth every day.

Not everyone

Not no-one, either

Why is everyone in the either/or camp

JimmyVik · 10-02-2021 10:37AM

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt the impact of WFH will be felt most by buyers who don't yet have children, because clearly uprooting settled kids will be one of the biggest factors affecting any decision.

But, having said that, I am fortunate enough to have the security of owning my house - I took that a bit for granted until I had kids. Now I realise just how important it is.

If I was renting with two small kids, the most important factor to me would be security of housing in a good area. Far more important than their schools, my job, partners job etc.

If it was a stretch for me to buy in a good area in Dublin, but I could afford a decent area further out, i wouldn't think twice about it.

Thats your end of the decision done then

Only the mrs and the two employers to go

gourcuff · 10-02-2021 10:37AM

AdamD wrote: »

Some of you seem oddly convinced that the only reason people want to live in Dublin is due to work

but for a lot of irish people the job was the only thing that brought them to dublin, many have no affection for the city and would much prefer to live elsewhere.

It doesn't rank high on the liveable city index, and irish people have experience now of vancouver, melbourne, sydney etc. i.e. their expectations of urban living/public realm has risen and quality of life/environment are massive factors.

I saw a fairly big exodus amongst my cohort once they could work remotely, will be interesting if employers don't force employees back full time to the office whether dublin will recover.

hardybuck · 10-02-2021 10:39AM

The_Conductor wrote: »

30 years ago- the only thing Dundrum had going for it- was proximity to UCD, and it was student land- a-la Rathmines or Clonskeagh.

Dundrum is somewhere you can commute from- and there is an inherent need to commute from there, given its current primary selling points are that massive shopping centre and its cinema.

Personally- I just don't get the fascination people have with living in Dundrum- I don't deny that for some people its the be-all and end-all, for me, I'm scratching my head as to just why its such a 'desirable' place to live, I just don't see it as having, well anything- other than good transport links.

Perhaps I'm being unfair- but I genuinely don't see what the area has to justify the irrational draw people have to it.

Dundrum, and its general environs, is a fantastic place to live. Not too busy while having absolutely everything in close proximity. The village proper itself is a bit lifeless (you wouldn't go for a pint there) but that's why the 5-10 minute Luas journey to Ranelagh comes in handy.

10-02-2021 10:42AM

<SNIP>

JimmyVik · 10-02-2021 10:43AM

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is the underlying tone in every argument put forward for that poster.

It's bizarre.

We are all here against our will, and long for Leitrim, Sligo and Wexford.

TBH I wouldnt mind living down the country now that im in my 40s.

Never would have dreamt of it before though. Grew up in the country, couldnt wait to get out of it.
But since hitting 40, country life doesnt seem so bad to me anymore.

The other half, being an out and out Dub, would never have it though.
Also Id like to be close to the kids (who live in Dublin with their mother), so that I can drop over in the evening or take them out in the afternoons. So thats another one against a country move for me.

jill_valentine · 10-02-2021 10:45AM

AdamD wrote: »

Some of you seem oddly convinced that the only reason people want to live in Dublin is due to work

Only reason, no, but it's a major one. Again, a very big question isn't do people want to live in Dublin, it's do people want to live in Dublin if it means never owning their own home? Are Dublin's pull factors enough to trump renting for life as a downside?

An awful lot of the people now in 30s, and so running out of time to get mortgages, are past the point where Dublin nightlife is a selling point, or they moved up for work while young and are now cycling back around to thinking about the places they grew up.

The_Conductor · 10-02-2021 10:47AM

Deleted User wrote: »

<SNIP>

And what is your view on this speculation?

PropQueries · 10-02-2021 10:47AM

gourcuff wrote: »

but for a lot of irish people the job was the only thing that brought them to dublin, many have no affection for the city and would much prefer to live elsewhere.

It doesn't rank high on the liveable city index, and irish people have experience now of vancouver, melbourne, sydney etc. i.e. their expectations of urban living/public realm has risen and quality of life/environment are massive factors.

I saw a fairly big exodus amongst my cohort once they could work remotely, will be interesting if employers don't force employees back full time to the office whether dublin will recover.

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire or Swords.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

JimmyVik · 10-02-2021 10:48AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

Might be better off asking them if they would actually prefer living in a small country town than living in Dun Laoghaire.

hometruths · 10-02-2021 10:50AM

awec wrote: »

It's not being sneered at, but it's a small rural town. It is the notion that everyone living in the city is dying to get that move to the small rural town, only held back by the chains of the office commute, that is nonsensical.

What is even more bizarre is this is coming off the back of an article that suggested 90% of FTBs in the city were not considering leaving!

Nobody is saying everybody living in the city is dying to get out!

It's that undoubtedly a greater number of people will look to buy outside Dublin than otherwise would have done so if it were not for Covid/WFH.

This will be driven mainly by affordability, not because they hate Dublin.

If 10% of FTBers who would have bought in Dublin decide to buy else where combined with 10% of renters in Dublin decide to rent elsewhere, it will have a huge effect on Dublin prices.

But obviously Dublin will always be the most popular and the most expensive place to buy property in the country.

PropQueries · 10-02-2021 10:50AM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Might be better off asking them if they would actually prefer living in a small country town than living in Dun Laoghaire.

I'd throw people living in Lucan and all similar towns in Co. Dublin in as well. Dublin City offers very very little entertainment or shopping wise anymore for the vast vast majority of working people.

wassie · 10-02-2021 10:51AM

jill_valentine wrote: »

An awful lot of the people now in 30s, and so running out of time to get mortgages, are past the point where Dublin nightlife is a selling point.

Running out of time in your 30s to get a mortgage?

fliball123 · 10-02-2021 10:53AM

Cyrus wrote: »

the generation that doesnt exist yet? you might be jumping the gun

I tend to agree I think it will be the next generation as in the school goers now who are now proficient at doing school work from and watching mam and dad work from home who will bring about the WFH to being the new norm. There are still a high number of jobs that physically need someone there to do the work. I cant see WFH having much impact on the Irish property market for at least another 5 years.

hometruths · 10-02-2021 10:54AM

JimmyVik wrote: »

Thats your end of the decision done then

Only the mrs and the two employers to go

Unsurprisingly married to someone who shares the same view.

Even if I was not self employed, I'd get a different job, if employer said no. That would have been a far riskier/maybe impossible decision pre WFH.

JimmyVik · 10-02-2021 10:55AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I'd throw people living in Lucan and all similar towns in Co. Dublin in as well. Dublin City offers very very little entertainment or shopping wise anymore for the vast vast majority of working people.

You are grasping here

Dublin does not offer very little to those people.
It offers far more than any rural town does.
Remember, you have to think about what Dublin has to offer when its up and running, not on its knees in a pandemic.

HopsAndJumps · 10-02-2021 10:55AM

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the best way to see how popular Dublin City really is is to ask someone with a family who works and lives in e.g. Dun Laoghaire or Swords.

How many times a year do they really travel to the city centre? In most cases, I would presume very very little, if at all.

I live in DL. Pre pandemic I would get the dart into town at least three times a week. 17 minutes from my dart stop to Tara street, there is so much to do in this city. (Was so much to do

)

gourcuff · 10-02-2021 10:56AM

London's population fell by c.700k its claimed, obviously dublins not in the same league as London but its instructive of covid impact..

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/covid-19-london-s-population-fell-by-700-000-amid-exodus-of-foreign-born-residents-from-uk-1.4458762

jill_valentine · 10-02-2021 10:57AM

wassie wrote: »

Running out of time in your 30s to get a mortgage?

Yes. How much you are offered by several institutions is calculated with consideration for how many years you have left before whatever they consider retirement age, ie how many working years you have to pay it back. That can make a significant difference.

I'm thirty five, from now on every year I get older shaves a few thousand off the max mortgage offer I can get.

Remember, 3.5 times your salary is only the cap. There's nothing stopping banks offering you less than that.

DataDude · 10-02-2021 10:58AM

Cyrus wrote: »

I think what you are saying is this, if you won the lotto and had 10m to spend on a house in the morning in dublin where would it be, for most people it will be between blackrock and dalkey if they want to be on the coast, and D4 or D6 if they prefer proximity to the city. (there are some that prefer the northside aswell, so you can include howth and sutton)

Its unlikely to be dundrum, stillorgan, goatstown etc.

So i think thats what you mean by a+ and a- areas.

Maybe im wrong?

Much more succinctly put - thanks! And I guess from there I'm saying that given we COVID isn't affecting the better off, there's likely to remain enough very wealthy people, and sufficiently few "lotto locations" to maybe allow those to do ok. But it's the next layer down, where people are paying big money for houses but not living in their dream location that might suffer most from the changing cost/benefit analysis of living in Dublin when WFH is a thing!

PropQueries · 10-02-2021 11:00AM

HopsAndJumps wrote: »

I live in DL. Pre pandemic I would get the dart into town at least three times a week. 17 minutes from my dart stop to Tara street, there is so much to do in this city. (Was so much to do )

Maybe you believe so. So for three times a week, that's 150 times a year.

What exactly did you do with your family 150 times a year in Dublin City?

hardybuck · 10-02-2021 11:02AM

DataDude wrote: »

Much more succinctly put - thanks! And I guess from there I'm saying that given we COVID isn't affecting the better off, there's likely to remain enough very wealthy people, and sufficiently few "lotto locations" to maybe allow those to do ok. But it's the next layer down, where people are paying big money for houses but not living in their dream location that might suffer most from the changing cost/benefit analysis of living in Dublin when WFH is a thing!

By the way, no sign of prices slowing down. Properties in D14 are still going above asking in 2021, and in some cases going sale agreed at 5-10% higher than identical properties sold for in Q4 2020.

Cyrus · 10-02-2021 11:03AM

schmittel wrote: »

Bit OT, but I've never really understood why Wexford is slightly sneered at. Wexford Town seems very nice to me. Am I missing anything?

i know wexford very well, and wexford town itself is ok as rural towns go, but even small dublin suburbs like blackrock or dalkey have more going on in terms of restaurants, eateries etc than wexford town, and the rest of the town's in the county (maybe im doing gorey a disservice havent been there in a while) are on their knees.

Cyrus · 10-02-2021 11:04AM

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe you believe so.

believe it or not, not everyone has the same utter disdain as you do for the city centre.

Greenlights16 · 10-02-2021 11:07AM

Agree with poster above.

Dublin has most definitely NOT a whole pile of things to do, most are weather reliant which is hilarious considering the climate we live in.

What this pandemic has showed us is that once you take the pub and restaurant culture away from Dublin, most notably the pubs, it’s sucked the life out of it completely.

People are much more in love with coastal areas and countryside villages around the country now, and as the poster above has said, this is going to be for the long term because of the reality of permanent WFH.

A worker in donegal or cork will be able to drive / commute upto the big corporate Dublin office 1/2 days a week to show their face/be nice to team mates you don’t even like/collaborate and work from their beautiful home away from the kip of a Dublin office.

As much as our own government want to try and keep everything in Dublin, this juggernaut is not going to stop. All for the better. The country will develop much more as a whole

DataDude · 10-02-2021 11:09AM

schmittel wrote: »

Nobody is saying everybody living in the city is dying to get out!

It's that undoubtedly a greater number of people will look to buy outside Dublin than otherwise would have done so if it were not for Covid/WFH.

This will be driven mainly by affordability, not because they hate Dublin.

If 10% of FTBers who would have bought in Dublin decide to buy else where combined with 10% of renters in Dublin decide to rent elsewhere, it will have a huge effect on Dublin prices.

But obviously Dublin will always be the most popular and the most expensive place to buy property in the country.

This! Dublin will always have a premium - we are not all crazy's suggesting the time of Leitrim has come and it will soon pass Goatstown in prices. Of course some people will always want to stay in Dublin. But I'm surprised the idea that people (particularly those starting families) may start to weight up the pro's and cons of the 5 bed in Maynooth with a garden vs the 3 bed-semi D in SCD through a slightly different lens - Echoing the comment of another poster, I too have heard so so many people discuss this over the last year.

I'd be interested to know, of those saying absolutely no way WFH will make much difference at all to where people choose to live, how many already own their own home in Dublin and can't relate to the struggle of two young workers earning €45k each with two young children trying to make their way in Dublin!

The thing that makes me believe it will be impactful is, most "change" has opposing forces acting and it can be hard aggregate those to work out the net effect. On this one, I cannot see how more WFH could encourage someone who previously wasn't living in the city to now do so (although perhaps others might have theories on this). It is a fact that some will choose to move further afield. As it's a one directional shift, the only question is how big a shift and how soon!

Cyrus · 10-02-2021 11:10AM

Greenlights16 wrote: »

A

A worker in donegal or cork will be able to drive / commute upto the big corporate Dublin office 1/2 days a week to show their face/be nice to team mates you don’t even like/collaborate and work from their beautiful home away from the kip of a Dublin office.

i feel sorry for all of you that seem to hate your co workers so much and where you work. Life is too short, you spend more of your time at work than anywhere else, move job.

Oh and you can have a beautiful home in dublin too, you dont need to live off the side of a cliff in conemara

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1