What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

ek motor · 08-02-2021 12:57PM

tesla1989 wrote: »

That trial they had was in young people, mean age of 31 and they had mild to moderate symptoms which is what you expect from young people, mild and moderate for a 31 year old might not be mild for a 61 or 71 year old, could easily be severe, they suspended rollout to get data on older people and plan next move.

They'll probably do like us and give pfizer to older people, it's a spanner in the works for them.

Mild to moderate means not in hospital, that can still be very severe and have long lasting disabling effects, I woouldn't be so quick to blow it off like you did either.

Guardian is saying today that oxford covid vaccine is 10% effective against South African variant, with very little efficiency against mild and moderate symptoms - they hope (no data yet) is that it is efficient against severe cases and death, not still prevents like you have claimed.

So effectively the AZ jab is useless against the SA variant in younger people?

08-02-2021 01:26PM

tesla1989 wrote: »

That trial they had was in young people, mean age of 31 and they had mild to moderate symptoms which is what you expect from young people, mild and moderate for a 31 year old might not be mild for a 61 or 71 year old, could easily be severe, they suspended rollout to get data on older people and plan next move.

They'll probably do like us and give pfizer to older people, it's a spanner in the works for them.

Has the Pfizer one been tested on the SA variant yet?

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 01:38PM

Aegir wrote: »

Has the Pfizer one been tested on the SA variant yet?

I'm not sure.

Pfizer I believe are saying it is, but it's not had a large 2000 people trial like SA did with the AZ vaccine against that variant as far as I know

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 01:45PM

ek motor wrote: »

So effectively the AZ jab is useless against the SA variant in younger people?

It looks that way, doesn't it

2000 people in the trial were young and they don't tend to get very sick

It was a waste of time that trial, what results were they expecting, they were never going to be many very sick people or deaths in it with that group.

It's a bit like having a 2000 people trial for an Alzheimer's vaccine in 30 year olds, none of the 30 year olds get Alzheimer's and then you say the vaccine is effective at stopping Alzheimer's. Ahh but 30 year olds don't tend to get Alzheimer's, you test it in 80 year olds.

That was the AZ trial.

robinph · 08-02-2021 01:45PM

ek motor wrote: »

So effectively the AZ jab is useless against the SA variant in younger people?

Possibly, but only if you rate the survey of 8 out of 10 cats saying they prefer Whiskers (survey based on putting a bowl of gravel and bowl of Whiskers infront of 4 cats), or the ones on hair/ makeup products on TV where if you look at the bottom of the screen is says they asked 76 women whose favourite brand was X if their favourite brand was X.

The "study" in SA was very limited in numbers and who they selected and the authors said that it wasn't really enough to draw anything from, and doesn't match with bigger studies done on the similar vaccines from other manufacturers. So all that can be said is that they need to do a bigger and better study.

robinph · 08-02-2021 01:53PM

tesla1989 wrote: »

I'm not sure.

Pfizer I believe are saying it is, but it's not had a large 2000 people trial like SA did with the AZ vaccine against that variant as far as I know

2000 people surely doesn't count as a large trial, that only give you 1000 people even getting the vaccine potentially. Although I think they were actually looking at the number of doses and if one or two was more effective, so could have been 1000 getting one and 1000 getting 2, rather than 1000 getting the measles vaccine instead.

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 01:59PM

robinph wrote: »

The "study" in SA was very limited in numbers and who they selected and the authors said that it wasn't really enough to draw anything from, and doesn't match with bigger studies done on the similar vaccines from other manufacturers. So all that can be said is that they need to do a bigger and better study.

The study/trial was rubbish, but has anyone else done a trial of 2000+ people with SA variant, I don't think anyone other manufacture has?

Pfizer and Moderna didn't have trials in SA so wouldn't have had many SA variants in there trial's, variant wasn't even around then anyway.

J&J and Novavax had a few SA variants in Trial, but mess less than 2000 people I believe

I can't see too many pharma companies signing up for large mass trials against SA variant, big risk of bad results

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 02:01PM

robinph wrote: »

2000 people surely doesn't count as a large trial, that only give you 1000 people even getting the vaccine potentially. Although I think they were actually looking at the number of doses and if one or two was more effective, so could have been 1000 getting one and 1000 getting 2, rather than 1000 getting the measles vaccine instead.

It was a crap trial and small, but it's bigger than anyone else have done against SA variant?

How many had that variant in other manufacturers trials?

Wasn't as big as 2000?

Pete_Cavan · 08-02-2021 02:04PM

Open to correction here but aren't the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines a different type of vaccine altogether to AZ and are more likely to be effective against variants?

robinph · 08-02-2021 02:18PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Open to correction here but aren't the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines a different type of vaccine altogether to AZ and are more likely to be effective against variants?

Pfizer and Moderna are the mRNA ones.
Oxford, Sputnik, Jansen (J&J) are viral vector.
Novovax is subunit(?).
Valneva is whole virus.

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-vaccine-uk/

Not sure if one type is better against variants or not, just that it happens the Oxford one potentially doesn't work with the South Africa variation. Could be the Pfizer one doesn't work against a different variation and another against yet another variation.

McGiver · 08-02-2021 02:27PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Open to correction here but aren't the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines a different type of vaccine altogether to AZ and are more likely to be effective against variants?

Yes, they are mRNA which is way more efficacious for variants for both Biontech and Moderna (some 20% more). CureVac is also mRNA.

J&J is a similar tech as AZ (viral vector), but has been tested in global trial including SA variant with 57% efficacy vs 72% efficacy in the US. Overall global efficacy was 66% percent.

Novavax is yet another type - protein based vaccine - it hasn't been globally trialled yet, UK trial was 89% efficacy. So hard to tell if it is going to be less efficacious than viral vector (JJ or AZ).

AZ seems to be around 50% efficacious mark or below with the SA variant.

The mRNA really is a huge progress, yes they are costlier but they are really efficacious and can be modified quickly for new variants. What's more important is that they are meant to be used for oncology and now with the experience with huge production for Covid the hope is that the next step will be mass application for cancer treatment.

McGiver · 08-02-2021 02:30PM

Tyrone212 wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55975052

South Africa has put its roll-out of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine on hold after a study showed "disappointing" results against its new Covid variant.

Here is more coverage on the issues:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-south-african-variant/2021/02/07/e82127f8-6948-11eb-a66e-e27046e9e898_story.html

Perhaps South Africa should consider only using mRNA because HIV positive covid patients may generate another escape route for new variants if such a weak vaccine as the AZ is used - that's what I understand from experts. I'm not a virologist though.

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 02:32PM

McGiver wrote: »

Yes, they are mRNA which is way more efficacious for variants for both Biontech and Moderna (some 20% more). CureVac is also mRNA.

J&J is a similar tech as AZ (viral vector), but has been tested in global trial including SA variant with 57% efficacy vs 72% efficacy in the US. Overall global efficacy was 66% percent.

Novavax is yet another type - protein based vaccine - it hasn't been globally trialled yet, UK trial was 89% efficacy. So hard to tell if it is going to be less efficacious than viral vector (JJ or AZ).

AZ seems to be around 50% efficacious mark or below with the SA variant.

The mRNA really is a huge progress, yes they are costlier but they are really efficacious and can be modified quickly for new variants. What's more important is that they are meant to be used for oncology and now with the experience with huge production for Covid the hope is that the next step will be mass application for cancer treatment.

What data are you basing those efficacy numbers against SA variant on?

How many in each trial had SA variant?

monkeybutter · 08-02-2021 02:34PM

McGiver wrote: »

Here is more coverage on the issues:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-south-african-variant/2021/02/07/e82127f8-6948-11eb-a66e-e27046e9e898_story.html

South Africa should be really only using mRNA because HIV positive covid patients may generate another escape route for new variants if such a weak vaccine as the AZ is used - that's what I understand from experts. I'm not a virologist though.

you certainly aren't a virologist that is for certain and no one is saying what you are

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 02:34PM

McGiver wrote: »

Here is more coverage on the issues:

South Africa should be really only using mRNA because HIV positive covid patients may generate another escape route for new variants if such a weak vaccine as the AZ is used - that's what I understand from experts. I'm not a virologist though.

What data on mRNA vs SA variant do you have to advise them to use only mRNA in SA?

Trial data? How many in trial?

McGiver · 08-02-2021 02:35PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

you certainly aren't a virologist that is for certain and no one is saying what you are

And your point is?

McGiver · 08-02-2021 02:41PM

tesla1989 wrote: »

What data on mRNA vs SA variant do you have to advise them to use only mRNA in SA?

Trial data? How many in trial?

Not much data available, but here are the statements.
https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-puresults-study-showing-covid-19

Some data is here but nothing on efficacy:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.07.425740v1

monkeybutter · 08-02-2021 02:47PM

McGiver wrote: »

And your point is?

stop repeating the same thing over and over with no basis for it

McGiver · 08-02-2021 02:48PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

stop repeating the same thing over and over with no basis for it

Like what exactly? What is your point exactly? :pac:

monkeybutter · 08-02-2021 02:49PM

McGiver wrote: »

Like what exactly? What is your point exactly? :pac:

you are posting baseless lies over and over

McGiver · 08-02-2021 02:50PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

stop repeating the same thing over and over with no basis for it

You're on a discussion forum, so discuss points instead of telling people to stop discussing. That's for the mods.

monkeybutter · 08-02-2021 02:51PM

McGiver wrote: »

You're on a discussion forum, so discuss points instead of telling people to stop discussing. That's for the mods.

no i am calling out your lies, you keep repeating that same things

McGiver · 08-02-2021 02:53PM

tesla1989 wrote: »

What data on mRNA vs SA variant do you have to advise them to use only mRNA in SA?

Trial data? How many in trial?

Washington Post claim:

The Oxford vaccine looked very promising until November, with about 75 percent effectiveness — in line with its performance in other trials. But once the mutated B.1.351 variant became dominant, its protective abilities were severely eroded, at least against mild and moderate disease.

In contrast, vaccine trials from Novavax and Johnson & Johnson have shown that vaccines don’t work as well against B.1.351, but they do still work, with 50 to 60 percent efficacy.

Not sure what data is the first paragraph based on.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/astrazeneca-oxford-vaccine-south-african-variant/2021/02/07/e82127f8-6948-11eb-a66e-e27046e9e898_story.html

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 02:58PM

McGiver wrote: »

Not much data available, but here are the statements.

Some data is here but nothing on efficacy:

McGiver nothing in that data suggests mRNA is inferior to other vectors and that SA should only use mRNA

Until data becomes available I would refrain on giving out medical advice

McGiver · 08-02-2021 03:18PM

tesla1989 wrote: »

McGiver nothing in that data suggests mRNA is inferior to other vectors and that SA should only use mRNA

Until data becomes available I would refrain on giving out medical advice

I'm not giving any medical advice...

McGiver · 08-02-2021 03:19PM

tesla1989 wrote: »

McGiver nothing in that data suggests mRNA is inferior to other vectors and that SA should only use mRNA

Until data becomes available I would refrain on giving out medical advice

You meant superior? I've edited my post, obviously I thought that nobody takes "medical advice" based on a discussion forum on boards.
Are you a virologist?

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 03:25PM

McGiver wrote: »

I'm not giving any medical advice...

McGiver wrote: »

South Africa should be really only using mRNA

As good as

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 03:27PM

McGiver wrote: »

You meant superior? I've edited my post, obviously I thought that nobody takes "medical advice" based on a discussion forum on boards.
Are you a virologist?

I'm not

I'm an engineer

McGiver · 08-02-2021 03:31PM

tesla1989 wrote: »

I'm not

I'm an engineer

Good man so. I've edited my post, happy?

tesla1989 · 08-02-2021 03:40PM

McGiver wrote: »

Good man so. I've edited my post, happy?

Good stuff, I respect that.

On the SA variant, until they all the run trials in the thousands against variants like SA with the 484 deletion it's inconclusive which vaccine is best. AZ had the most data and it's check mate 484 deletion virus so far, others wiill have more data soon I presume.

What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

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