What exactly is happening with AstraZeneca?

astrofool

mick087 wrote: »

Stop scare mongering. Stop making it political.

This is about saving lives.
What i believe is this Oxford vaccine today at this moment in time is the way forward. Its cheap and easy to store.

If i was offered the Oxford vaccine today i would take it.

I don't believe I was scare mongering, I was presenting facts and figures, responding with "I believe" is not scientific. If the AZ vaccine comes back with data showing a strong response in older people, then older people should take it, if not, then younger people should take it, it's that simple. The UK don't know the answer to that question yet because the dataset is either too small, or doesn't exist.

micosoft

robinph wrote: »

True, but I don't think repeated messaging out from various national regulators saying it's not safe for group X is going to help with countering anti vaxers (even though that isn't what they are saying, just that they want more data first before approving). Could do with the more responsible sections of the media not generating the clickbaity headlines quite so much.

Change the headlines from "Country X refuses to use vaccine Y in group Z" to "Country X approves vaccine Y", then stick the details in about it being approved or not for group Z in the middle of the article where the anti vaxxers won't read because they will have got bored of reading by then.

Fair. And we have the challenge of explaining a complex matter to a public who want absolute certainty and a media need to create clickbait as their business model is now built on PUTTING THE ENTIRE STORY IN ALLCAPS IN THE HEADLINE BETWEEN SOCIAL ADVERTS FOR SOMEONE WHO DISCOVERED SOMETHING IN NAVAN BECAUSE THATS THEIR READERS ATTENTION SPAN*

We just need to avoid giving a hostage to fortune from those who will try to exploit this. It seems likely that Vaccination for Covid will become an annual thing so we ain't seen nothing yet - once Vaccine Nationalism is over we will face Vaccine insurrection...

*Possibly a strategy for Boards posts...

robinph

micosoft wrote: »

It seems likely that Vaccination for Covid will become an annual thing so we ain't seen nothing yet -

For a couple of years possibly, then they won't bother giving it to the generally healthy younger population. Then there will be a few years of them figuring out if they should give the standard flu jab first or second each autumn, then they will either figure out a combination jab or just not bother with whichever isn't expected to be a big deal that winter.

Most people won't need to worry about it until they are approaching pension age though.

ShineOn7

Aegir wrote: »

There is zero suggestion that the astra Zeneca vaccine is anything but safe. As safe, if not safer than the Pfizer one.

Why have, as far as memory serves, Germany, France, Switzerland and more said they're not giving it to over 70s?

What if you're aged 69, is it miraculously safer for you?

The AZ vaccine has been a messy bastárd for months now

is_that_so

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Why have, as far as memory serves, Germany, France, Switzerland and more said they're not giving it to over 70s?

What if you're aged 69, is it miraculously safer for you?

The AZ vaccine has been a messy bastárd for months now

It's not a safety issue, it's a lack of data on that older group. We'll need to see what comes out of the ongoing UK experiment for more data.

Sam Russell

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not a safety issue, it's a lack of data on that older group. We'll need to see what comes out of the ongoing UK experiment for more data.

But the UK 'experiment' will not produce the data required as it is not a randomised sample base trial, as required by the EMA and NDA.

It is a lucky break for the UK that their 'experiment' has not exploded in their face. Let us hope it does not give to the mutations seen in the UK, Brazil, and South Africa where AZ did field trials. Was AZ responsible for those?

ShineOn7

Sam Russell wrote: »

Let us hope it does not give to the mutations seen in the UK, Brazil, and South Africa where AZ did field trials. Was AZ responsible for those?

Wtf?

Are you saying AZ caused the new strains?

Sam Russell

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Wtf?

Are you saying AZ caused the new strains?

No, there is no indication of that whatsoever, other than coincidence.

I doubt very much that the were responsible, but there is always a risk of mutations with viruses and vaccines. The data they provided was incomplete which does not inspire confidence.

lillycakes2

Its annoying to keep hearing that one of the vaccines people will be gettign is less effective than one others are getting, why the hell cant more supplies of the pfizer/ moderna vaccine be secured as this is the bloody cure to this long drawn out horrendous pandemic................. Jeez, just sick of them going on about it in news, just give the bloody vaccine to the people and give them the best one

frozen3

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Wtf?

Are you saying AZ caused the new strains?

That's how all future variants will form?

Selective pressure through vaccinating the whole world will cause the virus to adapt or die and it will mutate to become vaccine resistant to survive?

AZ had trials in SA, UK, Brazil, India, Japan

They all have variant mutations of vaccine escape E484K, except India I believe

Japan is debateable as they says its the Brazilian mutation there

Do I think it's because of AZ, no I don't personally, but I'm not a scientist, but its some coincidence and from my experience in life, coincidences are rare

Some believe AZ's lacklustre immune response gave the virus the chance to mutate inside the host which mRNA didn't as it has a much stronger immune response, like when you dont finish your dose of antibiotics and some bacterial infection is left over

KrustyUCC

Pfizer don't have enough for everyone

I'll take any vaccine of the three that's offered to me

AZ is still an excellent vaccine and will help Ireland immeasurably when the bigger shipments start arriving

is_that_so

Sam Russell wrote: »

But the UK 'experiment' will not produce the data required as it is not a randomised sample base trial, as required by the EMA and NDA.

It is a lucky break for the UK that their 'experiment' has not exploded in their face. Let us hope it does not give to the mutations seen in the UK, Brazil, and South Africa where AZ did field trials. Was AZ responsible for those?

Yeah, I think they have been lucky but just sheer volumes of data may be good enough. The current concern is lack of data, not safety. The UK can provide that. The US trial data might make it clearer.

Morries Wigs

Government are going to look like right spanners when data reveals its perfectly fine for over 65s

Ficheall

frozen3 wrote: »

That's how all future variants will form?

Selective pressure through vaccinating the whole world will cause the virus to adapt or die and it will mutate to become vaccine resistant to survive?

AZ had trials in SA, UK, Brazil, India, Japan

They all have variant mutations of vaccine escape E484K, except India I believe

Japan is debateable as they says its the Brazilian mutation there

Do I think it's because of AZ, no I don't personally, but I'm not a scientist, but its some coincidence and from my experience in life, coincidences are rare

Some believe AZ's lacklustre immune response gave the virus the chance to mutate inside the host which mRNA didn't as it has a much stronger immune response, like when you dont finish your dose of antibiotics and some bacterial infection is left over

I can vouch for the bolded bit anyway.

is_that_so

Morries Wigs wrote: »

Government are going to look like right spanners when data reveals its perfectly fine for over 65s

No, they won't as we'll be long past them by that time and there is also the current supply issue. We'll have given two doses to a lot of them by the end of March. If there is any blame it's how the Oxford trial was run. Absolutely solid on protocols but sample demographics not wide enough and then there was that dosing SNAFU.

Pete_Cavan

Morries Wigs wrote: »

Government are going to look like right spanners when data reveals its perfectly fine for over 65s

Not at all. It's called the prudence principle and it is right to apply it here. If you take a risk and get away with it, it doesn't automatically mean taking the risk was the right thing to do.

Sam Russell

is_that_so wrote: »

No, they won't as we'll be long past them by that time. If there is any blame it's how the Oxford trial was run. Absolutely solid on protocols but sample demographics not wide enough and then there was that dosing SNAFU.

How much experience have AZ in trials of vaccines or is this their first one?

Did the race to be first Covid vaccine give rise to short cuts being taken as evidenced by the different dose size at different sites? That certainly caused a bit of a wobble.

is_that_so

Sam Russell wrote: »

How much experience have AZ in trials of vaccines or is this their first one?

Did the race to be first Covid vaccine give rise to short cuts being taken as evidenced by the different dose size at different sites? That certainly caused a bit of a wobble.

Oxford did the UK one via the Jenner Institute, not sure about the other sites. I think it's AZ's first production run of vaccines.

micosoft

Sam Russell wrote: »

But the UK 'experiment' will not produce the data required as it is not a randomised sample base trial, as required by the EMA and NDA.

It is a lucky break for the UK that their 'experiment' has not exploded in their face. Let us hope it does not give to the mutations seen in the UK, Brazil, and South Africa where AZ did field trials. Was AZ responsible for those?

It is. Like all of these things it's risk/benefit. And in the case of the UK after making a mess of containment the risk/benefit tilted towards making a gamble. It's not over though. What happens if there is a unknown reaction in several months to AZ? I hope not but for the sake of three weeks... it was too much of a gamble for the EU buying on behalf of 27 countries most of whom were doing a better job.

monkeybutter

frozen3 wrote: »

That's how all future variants will form?

Selective pressure through vaccinating the whole world will cause the virus to adapt or die and it will mutate to become vaccine resistant to survive?

AZ had trials in SA, UK, Brazil, India, Japan

They all have variant mutations of vaccine escape E484K, except India I believe

Japan is debateable as they says its the Brazilian mutation there

Do I think it's because of AZ, no I don't personally, but I'm not a scientist, but its some coincidence and from my experience in life, coincidences are rare

Some believe AZ's lacklustre immune response gave the virus the chance to mutate inside the host which mRNA didn't as it has a much stronger immune response, like when you dont finish your dose of antibiotics and some bacterial infection is left over

I see you did your own research on this matter

brickster69

Morries Wigs wrote: »

Government are going to look like right spanners when data reveals its perfectly fine for over 65s

Imagine what Macron is going to look like.

PCeeeee

robinph wrote: »

True, but I don't think repeated messaging out from various national regulators saying it's not safe for group X is going to help with countering anti vaxers.

They're not saying it's not safe. They're saying there's no evidence it's safe.

Its an important distinction. The job of the regulatory body is to acess the data provided to see if it demonstrates safety.

runawaybishop

lillycakes2 wrote: »

Its annoying to keep hearing that one of the vaccines people will be gettign is less effective than one others are getting, why the hell cant more supplies of the pfizer/ moderna vaccine be secured as this is the bloody cure to this long drawn out horrendous pandemic................. Jeez, just sick of them going on about it in news, just give the bloody vaccine to the people and give them the best one

Some may be less effective than others at stopping you getting the disease, but all of them effectively eliminate severe cases that require hospitalisation.

lillycakes2

runawaybishop wrote: »

Some may be less effective than others at stopping you getting the disease, but all of them effectively eliminate severe cases that require hospitalisation.

Yes , so the vulnerable people e.g. over 70's , people with risk factors should be given the one which will ultimately stop them from contracting the illness

astrofool

PCeeeee wrote: »

They're not saying it's not safe. They're saying there's no evidence it's safe.

Its an important distinction. The job of the regulatory body is to acess the data provided to see if it demonstrates safety.

NO

There is no issue with the safety of the vaccine. The AZ vaccine is absolutely and unequivocally safe.

There is an issue with missing data on the efficacy in the older age groups.

If the efficacy in older age groups is > 50% AND there is no serious symptoms developed for the other %, then it will be given to the older age group as well, we will find this out from the UK fairly soon (we don't need a control in this case).

This data is currently missing, the UK made the decision based on emergency approval, and good results in the lab with samples from older age groups.

There is also no cut off for how the immune system reacts, so a 69 year old could have a much worse immune response than an 80 year old, what matters is what happens on average, and then incorporate a safety margin, where you can be confident that the average 69 year old has a high confidence level of generating a strong immune response. People who come back with the "why not X - 1" don't have a good understanding of how these decisions get made.

robinph

PCeeeee wrote: »

They're not saying it's not safe. They're saying there's no evidence it's safe.

Its an important distinction. The job of the regulatory body is to acess the data provided to see if it demonstrates safety.

I know that's what the regulators are saying.

The comment way in relation to click bait headlines saying other things for the purpose of the scaring people.

PCeeeee

astrofool wrote: »

NO

There is no issue with the safety of the vaccine. The AZ vaccine is absolutely and unequivocally safe.

There is an issue with missing data on the efficacy in the older age groups.

If the efficacy in older age groups is > 50% AND there is no serious symptoms developed for the other %, then it will be given to the older age group as well, we will find this out from the UK fairly soon (we don't need a control in this case).

This data is currently missing, the UK made the decision based on emergency approval, and good results in the lab with samples from older age groups.

There is also no cut off for how the immune system reacts, so a 69 year old could have a much worse immune response than an 80 year old, what matters is what happens on average, and then incorporate a safety margin, where you can be confident that the average 69 year old has a high confidence level of generating a strong immune response. People who come back with the "why not X - 1" don't have a good understanding of how these decisions get made.

Sorry Astro you're quite correct.

Natterjack from Kerry

brickster69 wrote: »

Imagine what Macron is going to look like.

Still pretty fine for someone of 67 I'd say.

brickster69

Natterjack from Kerry wrote: »

Still pretty fine for someone of 67 I'd say.

Easy when you can get all the injections you want. :pac:

NeuralNetwork

Morries Wigs wrote: »

Government are going to look like right spanners when data reveals its perfectly fine for over 65s

The issue is quite simply the data isn't yet there to support the claim. If that data comes, the policy will change fairly quickly.

The government can only really deal with scientific facts on this kind of thing and the facts are simply that there's a gap in the available data for that age group.

Would you rather the government made complex technical decisions based on whims and political pressure? Or, would you rather they stuck to dealing with facts?

All it means is the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines will be targeted towards those age groups and the AstraZeneca vaccine will go to younger people. It doesn't really change anything much beyond that.