2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Cyrus · 08-02-2021 02:58PM

The_Conductor wrote: »

Strip pensions and children's payments (childrens benefit etc) out of the equation- and you still have a cool 10billion to go through to identify cuts.

Norway and other Nordic countries can afford generous social welfare systems- hell Norway holds over 200k per head of population in its sovereign wealth fund- Ireland, on the other hand- owes 54k per head of population (and rising).

If/when interest rates ever increase- we are so screwed. Even in this era of low interest rates- we still paid roughly 5.5 billion in interest on sovereign debt in 2020...........

We need to strip billions out of our expenditure, and identify new methods of taxing the Irish populace (and close loopholes that the wealthy like to exploit- including the 180 day rule etc).

we need to widen the tax base for sure, most of the income is derived from too few sources,

i think things like the 180 day rule is a red herring though, the super rich will always find a way around things or just relocate completely, there is much more lucrative and lower hanging fruit.

hometruths · 08-02-2021 03:04PM

Who'd have thought it. Remote working more appealing to certain age groups, study finds

Two in every five - 40% - workers are happy to stay working from home post-Covid, according to a new study

From the 1,000 people surveyed by Esri Ireland, there is a clear divide between age groups, with 63 per cent of people under the age of 24 and 75 per cent of people over 55 wanted to return to the office.

Meanwhile, almost half of the people in their late twenties and early thirties wanted to stay working from home.

I think we can assume that this almost 50% of would be WFHers are in the same age range as the bulk of would be FTBers.

The survey also found that one in 10 of workers would like to leave larger urban centres in favour of the countryside.

If almost 50% of late 20s/30s workers want to WFH and 1 in 10 of all workers would like to leave larger urban centres, it would suggest that more than 1 in 10 of FTBers would like to leave larger urban centres.

If this survey is even close to representative that is a serious headwind for Dublin prices.

PropQueries · 08-02-2021 03:14PM

Villa05 wrote: »

Is that realistic though
One dodges tax
The other may pay more than half in tax

What, if any, other prioduct/service has this level of tax inequality

Don't fall for the nonsense put out by the landlords on the unfair tax burden.

They would be paying 50% on any other income if they decided to work for a living. The tax on such passive investments should be much higher than on the income tax on people who actually work for a living or who actually work in their business full time e.g. a cafe owner.

Rent is basically free money for wealthy people who can afford to purchase an investment property for cash or if they borrowed to invest in an investment property, then they're speculators (gamblers?) and not real business people.

At least developers actually build something and create jobs etc.

A property investor/speculator does very very little and should be taxed accordingly if the state really does need the revenue IMO

Cyrus · 08-02-2021 03:15PM

schmittel wrote: »

Who'd have thought it. Remote working more appealing to certain age groups, study finds

Two in every five - 40% - workers are happy to stay working from home post-Covid, according to a new study

I think we can assume that this almost 50% of would be WFHers are in the same age range as the bulk of would be FTBers.

If almost 50% of late 20s/30s workers want to WFH and 1 in 10 of all workers would like to leave larger urban centres, it would suggest that more than 1 in 10 of FTBers would like to leave larger urban centres.

If this survey is even close to representative that is a serious headwind for Dublin prices.

what impact do you think this will have on prices in 2021 ?

hometruths · 08-02-2021 03:17PM

Cyrus wrote: »

what impact do you think this will have on prices in 2021 ?

I have no idea of the precise impact. All I know for sure is it won't be a positive impact.

cnocbui · 08-02-2021 03:19PM

schmittel wrote: »

Who'd have thought it. Remote working more appealing to certain age groups, study finds

Two in every five - 40% - workers are happy to stay working from home post-Covid, according to a new study

I think we can assume that this almost 50% of would be WFHers are in the same age range as the bulk of would be FTBers.

If almost 50% of late 20s/30s workers want to WFH and 1 in 10 of all workers would like to leave larger urban centres, it would suggest that more than 1 in 10 of FTBers would like to leave larger urban centres.

If this survey is even close to representative that is a serious headwind for Dublin prices.

I'm glad it's a one-off country mansion I am looking to sell then.

Cyrus · 08-02-2021 03:21PM

schmittel wrote: »

I have no idea of the precise impact. All I know for sure is it won't be a positive impact.

i didnt ask for a precise impact just your estimation, it would seem to me that if this does impact prices in urban locations it will be a longer term thing rather than over the next 10-11 months.

PropQueries · 08-02-2021 03:22PM

cnocbui wrote: »

I'm glad it's a one-off country mansion I am looking to sell then.

Unfortunately, there's c. 90,000+ other properties (not including c. 60,000 holiday homes) in the country at the moment that could also possibly be looking for buyers in the short-to-medium term if the latest GeoDirectory is to believed

P.S. I believe it

PropQueries · 08-02-2021 03:24PM

schmittel wrote: »

I have no idea of the precise impact. All I know for sure is it won't be a positive impact.

Well, as this plays out over the next several months, it will definitely impact on the buying decisions of people thinking of buying in the later months of 2021 IMO.

Cyrus · 08-02-2021 03:25PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Unfortunately, there's c. 90,000+ other properties (not including c. 60,000 holiday homes) in the country at the moment that could also possibly be looking for buyers in the short-to-medium term if the latest GeoDirectory is to believed

P.S. I believe it

lucky for him that people looking to buy houses tend to look at the ones actually available for sale

hometruths · 08-02-2021 03:26PM

Cyrus wrote: »

i didnt ask for a precise impact just your estimation, it would seem to me that if this does impact prices in urban locations it will be a longer term thing rather than over the next 10-11 months.

It is a current survey, if it is genuinely representative, it will be having an impact to some degree or another right now. The extent of that impact is impossible to measure.

Cyrus · 08-02-2021 03:26PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, as this plays out over the next several months, it will definitely impact on the buying decisions of people thinking of buying in the later months of 2021 IMO.

we shall see but i dont expect any material changes in property prices in 2021.

people will hardly be back in the office by the end of the year much less have a clear idea of what WFH they will be allowed to do (irrespective of what they want) into the future.

PropQueries · 08-02-2021 03:26PM

Cyrus wrote: »

lucky for him that people looking to buy houses tend to look at the ones actually available for sale

Depends on who owns them

Maybe they'll take their capital gains now and invest the proceeds at 2% in 30 year treasuries.

Cyrus · 08-02-2021 03:30PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Depends on who owns them Maybe they'll take their capital gains now and invest the proceeds at 2% in 30 year treasuries.

im sure we will see a flood of properties added to myhome and daft over the next few weeks as they flock to do this.

Hubertj · 08-02-2021 03:33PM

schmittel wrote: »

I have no idea of the precise impact. All I know for sure is it won't be a positive impact.

Would falling prices not be positive? I would also like to see a survey of people who bought outside Dublin due to affordability. If prices decrease would they take opportunity to move back to Dublin to be closer to family, friends and Starbucks?

cnocbui · 08-02-2021 03:34PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Unfortunately, there's c. 90,000+ other properties (not including c. 60,000 holiday homes) in the country at the moment that could also possibly be looking for buyers in the short-to-medium term if the latest GeoDirectory is to believed

P.S. I believe it

A month or so ago, someone in the currently buying/selling thread was complaining about the utter lack of good condition family home type houses in, or even near Cork. Curious, and somewhat sceptical, I took a look. Single figures. - low single figures.

I just took a peek on myhome.maxtax and there are 9 local to me; 4 if you discount the ones €499 K and above.

So, I don't think I will be sitting for 24 months, hoping for a sign of interest. Sorry to disappoint.

hometruths · 08-02-2021 03:36PM

Hubertj wrote: »

Would falling prices not be positive? I would also like to see a survey of people who bought outside Dublin due to affordability. If prices decrease would they take opportunity to move back to Dublin to be closer to family, friends and Starbucks?

I suppose it depends on your point of view. I get the impression there are many on here that think falling prices would not be a good thing.

I used the phrase meaning positive as in the impact will not be putting upward pressure on prices.

Cyrus · 08-02-2021 03:48PM

schmittel wrote: »

I suppose it depends on your point of view. I get the impression there are many on here that think falling prices would not be a good thing.

you are making the assumption that someone disagreeing with you thinks prices dropping is a bad thing.

its ok to have an opinion without a vested interest,

and so far the people of the opinion that prices arent dropping, or at least by any material amount have been on the correct side of the argument.

cnocbui · 08-02-2021 03:57PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Don't fall for the nonsense put out by the landlords on the unfair tax burden.

They would be paying 50% on any other income if they decided to work for a living. The tax on such passive investments should be much higher than on the income tax on people who actually work for a living or who actually work in their business full time e.g. a cafe owner.

Rent is basically free money for wealthy people who can afford to purchase an investment property for cash or if they borrowed to invest in an investment property, then they're speculators (gamblers?) and not real business people.

At least developers actually build something and create jobs etc.

A property investor/speculator does very very little and should be taxed accordingly if the state really does need the revenue IMO

Ireland is the way it is because so many think like you. A shining example of Irish socialsim.

One of the several reasons I wish to sell my property is to emigrate and get as far away from such thinking as possible.

Putting a moral slant on how people generate an income is a teflon coated slope. It's ok to allow a REIT to operate tax free, but tax any rich w*nker to death if they dare try the same thing. Tax the shit out of an individual who makes any money from trading shares, but tax a company that does the same thing, next to nothing. What, you still have enough money left to put in the bank? You filthy, dirty barsteward! Here's an appropriately named DIRT tax to teach you a lesson, you scum.

By all means keep this begrudgery driven mental faeces going, but don't be too surprised when you find your kid in need of a neurosurgeon and on a 16 month waiting list for a life saving operation, because for some strange reason, neurosurgeons seem to be in short supply.

I am dreaming of when I can catch a sweet whiff of kerosene in the air as I head for the exit.

hometruths · 08-02-2021 04:04PM

Cyrus wrote: »

you are making the assumption that someone disagreeing with you thinks prices dropping is a bad thing.

yes, that's the assumption I am making based on both the style and substance of their posts.

Cyrus wrote: »

its ok to have an opinion without a vested interest,

Yes, I get that. My opinion on the outlook for the property market and my vested interests in the property market are very different

JimmyVik · 08-02-2021 04:13PM

PropQueries wrote: »

Good luck on paying for rent (yes they do pay some no matter how small), food, electricity, gas, broadband, mobile phone, clothing, footwear, car, petrol, insurance, travel once a year to a wedding etc. on €203 a week.

Just out of curiosity. For the posters who seem to truly believe that giving up their job and being on the dole would make them better off, have they looked at their ESB/Gas bill after Christmas?

I believe I would be able to do all those things.
And I wouldnt even need them to pay my rent.
How about I get the choice as to whether or not i want to try it?

PropQueries · 08-02-2021 04:16PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Ireland is the way it is because so many think like you. A shining example of Irish socialsim.

One of the several reasons I wish to sell my property is to emigrate and get as far away from such thinking as possible.

Putting a moral slant on how people generate an income is a teflon coated slope. It's ok to allow a REIT to operate tax free, but tax any rich w*nker to death if they dare try the same thing. Tax the shit out of an individual who makes any money from trading shares, but tax a company that does the same thing, next to nothing. What, you still have enough money left to put in the bank? You filthy, dirty barsteward! Here's an appropriately named DIRT tax to teach you a lesson, you scum.

By all means keep this begrudgery driven mental faeces going, but don't be too surprised when you find your kid in need of a neurosurgeon and on a 16 month waiting list for a life saving operation, because for some strange reason, neurosurgeons seem to be in short supply.

I am dreaming of when I can catch a sweet whiff of kerosene in the air as I head for the exit.

I would guess I'm way more capitalist than yourself

REITS who build apartments are completely different to a passive investor in a property.

A cafe owner who works in his cafe is completely different to a passive property investor as well.

Taxation is an excellent way to direct the resources of the economy to where they would be best used, if implemented properly.

A property investor who buys a property built in e.g. 2004 to rent out is not contributing anything to the economy from my viewpoint. The house has already been built. Someone is already renting it.

Wouldn't it be better to "encourage" that potential property investor to invest in a local business or maybe even in a developer who wishes to build houses?

fliball123 · 08-02-2021 04:37PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I would guess I'm way more capitalist than yourself

REITS who build apartments are completely different to a passive investor in a property.

A cafe owner who works in his cafe is completely different to a passive property investor as well.

Taxation is an excellent way to direct the resources of the economy to where they would be best used, if implemented properly.

A property investor who buys a property built in e.g. 2004 to rent out is not contributing anything to the economy from my viewpoint. The house has already been built. Someone is already renting it.

Wouldn't it be better to "encourage" that potential property investor to invest in a local business or maybe even in a developer who wishes to build houses?

so the service of having someone housed is not contributing to the economy that person will still have to be housed.

cnocbui · 08-02-2021 04:41PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I would guess I'm way more capitalist than yourself

REITS who build apartments are completely different to a passive investor in a property.

A cafe owner who works in his cafe is completely different to a passive property investor as well.

Taxation is an excellent way to direct the resources of the economy to where they would be best used, if implemented properly.

A property investor who buys a property built in e.g. 2004 to rent out is not contributing anything to the economy from my viewpoint. The house has already been built. Someone is already renting it.

Wouldn't it be better to "encourage" that potential property investor to invest in a local business or maybe even in a developer who wishes to build houses?

You really do like to ignore home truths. It's been pointed out by me and others months ago, that REITS are buying finished developments, not commissioning their construction, thereby reducing retail supply. They bought most of the apartments constructed in Dublin in 2019. They provide demand, not impetus, and you know what, so does a rich individual who buys an investment property to rent out.

One good, the other bad? Socialism.

08-02-2021 04:43PM

I know four apartment blocks currently being built which were bought by Irish life to be rented out, bought before the building even started

mcsean2163 · 08-02-2021 05:24PM

cnocbui wrote: »

You really do like to ignore home truths. It's been pointed out by me and others months ago, that REITS are buying finished developments, not commissioning their construction, thereby reducing retail supply. They bought most of the apartments constructed in Dublin in 2019. They provide demand, not impetus, and you know what, so does a rich individual who buys an investment property to rent out.

One good, the other bad? Socialism.

The rich individual pays tax.

cnocbui · 08-02-2021 05:42PM

mcsean2163 wrote: »

The rich individual pays tax.

Not quite: The rich individual pays tax and underwrites the US based shareholders of Irish based US multinationals and helps them transition from being 0.01 percenters to being 0.001 percenters, via the taxes Ireland aids and abets those multinationals in avoiding.

Tim Cook under oath, before the US Senate, in reply to being asked how much tax Apple paid in Ireland on billions in earnings: '2.5%'

During its investigations, the subcommittee found that Apple considers three key subsidiaries, all based in Ireland, to have no tax jurisdiction at all. One of those Irish affiliates, Apple Sales International (ASI), reported sales income of $74bn over four years but paid hardly any tax. In 2011 ASI had pre-tax earnings of $22bn but paid just $10m in tax, a rate of 0.05%

The Irish government's response to the EU finding illegal state tax subsidisation and that Apple must pay it to the Irish government: 'no, no, we don't want that €13 Billion - we don't need it, we have a few million tax payers we fleece and if we let up now, the little feckers might get used to it!'

PropQueries · 08-02-2021 07:18PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Not quite: The rich individual pays tax and underwrites the US based shareholders of Irish based US multinationals and helps them transition from being 0.01 percenters to being 0.001 percenters, via the taxes Ireland aids and abets those multinationals in avoiding.

Tim Cook under oath, before the US Senate, in reply to being asked how much tax Apple paid in Ireland on billions in earnings: '2.5%'

The Irish government's response to the EU finding illegal state tax subsidisation and that Apple must pay it to the Irish government: 'no, no, we don't want that €13 Billion - we don't need it, we have a few million tax payers we fleece and if we let up now, the little feckers might get used to it!'

I think the difference is that Apple had a choice to set up here or not. Without our low taxes, they would have been better off setting up in the UK or other EU country i.e. nearer their market, much bigger concentration of potential workers nearby etc. The low taxes created jobs etc. which otherwise wouldn't be here. Local landlords also benefit from renting their properties to Apple employees etc.

But, if a farmer in Wicklow sells a site for c. €5m, then the only beneficiaries are the farmer, Germany and Switzerland i.e. He will possibly buy a BMW from the German car manufacturer and a chalet in Switzerland.

So, in my view, I have no problem with Apple paying zero tax, but I think that Wicklow farmer should definitely pay 90% tax on any value in excess of the agricultural value of that land. The excess value over the agricultural value was created by the local council when they signed off on the planning permission so the farmer contributed nothing to his new found wealth IMO

Cyrus · 08-02-2021 07:38PM

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the difference is that Apple had a choice to set up here or not. Without our low taxes, they would have been better off setting up in the UK or other EU country i.e. nearer their market, much bigger concentration of potential workers nearby etc. The low taxes created jobs etc. which otherwise wouldn't be here. Local landlords also benefit from renting their properties to Apple employees etc.

But, if a farmer in Wicklow sells a site for c. €5m, then the only beneficiaries are the farmer, Germany and Switzerland i.e. He will possibly buy a BMW from the German car manufacturer and a chalet in Switzerland.

So, in my view, I have no problem with Apple paying zero tax, but I think that Wicklow farmer should definitely pay 90% tax on any value in excess of the agricultural value of that land. The excess value over the agricultural value was created by the local council when they signed off on the planning permission so the farmer contributed nothing to his new found wealth IMO

You have removed the incentive for the farmer to sell the land now, making land more scarce pushing house prices up .

Timing belt · 08-02-2021 08:34PM

Hubertj wrote: »

I think risk is definitely a big factor. Links to a point I made this morning about RTB and enforcement of regulations. If landlord and tenant had more faith in system it would help overall.
If someone does sell their investment property where do they put their money though? In bank at 0 or negative? Sell and Sit on cash for 12-18 month then buy again?
Or invest elsewhere?

At the moment property provides the best risk/reward for an investor the other main options are the stock market and get a 2% dividend, Invest in gov bonds and get 2% on a 30year note. With both of these you have serious risks of loosing capital unless you are looking at holding a position till maturity or for a long period to enable the stock market to recover from any crash.

Maybe they could take copy Elon musk and invest in Bitcoin

Rent would need to drop up to 40% before the other investments were on a equal footing from a reward perspective IMO

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1