2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Timing belt

Hubertj wrote: »

Would falling prices not be positive? I would also like to see a survey of people who bought outside Dublin due to affordability. If prices decrease would they take opportunity to move back to Dublin to be closer to family, friends and Starbucks?

I think the majority of purchases would see a fall in prices as a positive. If it is a case that people WFH outside Dublin the first impact will probably be felt in the rental market.

You would need to see a drop in rents of about 30% for rent to be on par with a mortgage repayment (assuming 30 yrs @ 3%) so there should still be demand to buy for people wanting to live in Dublin and they may have more choices as supply comes online and return it to a more normally functioning housing market with the exception of DLR/Wicklow that will find it more difficult to sell at current prices as these areas have already maxed out on property prices.

Elsewhere in the country you will probably see a shortage of houses and strong increases in price as someone on a Dublin wage will be able to outbid someone on a local wage.

decreds

schmittel wrote: »

Who'd have thought it. Remote working more appealing to certain age groups, study finds

Two in every five - 40% - workers are happy to stay working from home post-Covid, according to a new study



I think we can assume that this almost 50% of would be WFHers are in the same age range as the bulk of would be FTBers.



If almost 50% of late 20s/30s workers want to WFH and 1 in 10 of all workers would like to leave larger urban centres, it would suggest that more than 1 in 10 of FTBers would like to leave larger urban centres.

If this survey is even close to representative that is a serious headwind for Dublin prices.

Fwiw, my company has offices in Belfast, Dublin and London.


I have been with the company years and know most of the people in the Dub office. There is roughly 90-100 in the Dub office with around 30 of them from the countryside (all under 35), around 25 of them have all moved back home and now that we have been given the green light with full time WFH the majority of them will now be purchasing outside of Dublin.


Colleagues in Belfast and London have reported similar patterns. It's a drop in the ocean but people in MNC have been WFH for years on a semi-regular basis, now that most of them are offering full time WFH we could see a huge amount of FTB opt out of Dublin.

hometruths

decreds wrote: »

Fwiw, my company has offices in Belfast, Dublin and London.


I have been with the company years and know most of the people in the Dub office. There is roughly 90-100 in the Dub office with around 30 of them from the countryside (all under 35), around 25 of them have all moved back home and now that we have been given the green light with full time WFH the majority of them will now be purchasing outside of Dublin.


Colleagues in Belfast and London have reported similar patterns. It's a drop in the ocean but people in MNC have been WFH for years on a semi-regular basis, now that most of them are offering full time WFH we could see a huge amount of FTB opt out of Dublin.

Makes sense. Given that FTBers for years have been opting out of Dublin in favour of affordability in Wicklow/Kildare/Meath without wide scale WFH, a larger number will clearly do so and look further afield still if they have the option to WFH.

PropQueries

This is a completely new initiative from DCC and I don't believe anyone could have foreseen this.

According to the Irish Times: "Dublin City Council to consider using public parks for Traveller housing schemes"

DCC also said "We will face opposition to proposals and we would welcome strong political leadership to support new development proposals brought before Councillors for approval."

I don't think anyone can now now seriously disagree with building social homes on Phoenix Park if this latest proposal goes through IMO. And, I'm not saying that in jest.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-to-consider-using-public-parks-for-traveller-housing-schemes-1.4479511

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

This is a completely new initiative from DCC and I don't believe anyone could have foreseen this.

According to the Irish Times: "Dublin City Council to consider using public parks for Traveller housing schemes"

DCC also said "We will face opposition to proposals and we would welcome strong political leadership to support new development proposals brought before Councillors for approval."

I don't think anyone can now now seriously disagree with building social homes on Phoenix Park if this latest proposal goes through IMO. And, I'm not saying that in jest.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-to-consider-using-public-parks-for-traveller-housing-schemes-1.4479511

Bit speechless reading that. Hubert's assessment of councillors IQ seems to be spot on.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

This is a completely new initiative from DCC and I don't believe anyone could have foreseen this.

According to the Irish Times: "Dublin City Council to consider using public parks for Traveller housing schemes"

DCC also said "We will face opposition to proposals and we would welcome strong political leadership to support new development proposals brought before Councillors for approval."

I don't think anyone can now now seriously disagree with building social homes on Phoenix Park if this latest proposal goes through IMO. And, I'm not saying that in jest.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-to-consider-using-public-parks-for-traveller-housing-schemes-1.4479511

It won't be the first time that they build on public parks. They built 50 odd houses on a public park in Clondalkin 2/3 years ago.

https://consult.sdublincoco.ie/en/consultation/part-8-proposed-new-rapid-build-social-housing-development-st-cuthberts-park-clondalkin

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

It won't be the first time that they build on public parks. They built 50 odd houses on a public park in Clondalkin 2/3 years ago.

https://consult.sdublincoco.ie/en/consultation/part-8-proposed-new-rapid-build-social-housing-development-st-cuthberts-park-clondalkin

So there we go. We have the solution to the supposed lack of land problem for building houses in the city. It's called Phoenix Park

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

So there we go. We have the solution to the supposed lack of land problem for building houses in the city. It's called Phoenix Park

That would be total madness... but where the council are involved you never know.... the only comfort I would get is that it would take 10 years to publish their plan and then another 10 years in court.... Burn through a few million euro in legal fees, consultants etc. and end up with noting and then blame each other for not delivering.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

This is a completely new initiative from DCC and I don't believe anyone could have foreseen this.

According to the Irish Times: "Dublin City Council to consider using public parks for Traveller housing schemes"

DCC also said "We will face opposition to proposals and we would welcome strong political leadership to support new development proposals brought before Councillors for approval."

I don't think anyone can now now seriously disagree with building social homes on Phoenix Park if this latest proposal goes through IMO. And, I'm not saying that in jest.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-to-consider-using-public-parks-for-traveller-housing-schemes-1.4479511

Buy some old clapped out barges, load the feckless freeloaders on the and tow them 2 km out into the Irish sea and anchor them. Send a supply vessel out once a week. There you go, problem solved the right way.

PropQueries

According to the Irish Times: “ESB plan to convert museum into luxury apartments criticised by city councillors”

Just like when RTÉ sold part of their site at Donnybrook for c. €100m back in 2017, isn’t this just another example of a state body using or selling what is state owned land (owned by me) for the exclusive benefit of relatively few ESB employees?

Shouldn’t the state just take this site for social housing purposes given that the ESB now have no interest in using it? The state will gladly take my front garden (actual real private property paid for by me) to build a bus route etc.

Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/heritage/esb-plan-to-convert-museum-into-luxury-apartments-criticised-by-city-councillors-1.4479543

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

You would need to see a drop in rents of about 30% for rent to be on par with a mortgage repayment (assuming 30 yrs @ 3%) so there should still be demand to buy for people wanting to live in Dublin and they may have more choices as supply comes online and return it to a more normally functioning housing market with the exception of DLR/Wicklow that will find it more difficult to sell at current prices as these areas have already maxed out on property prices.

Every bubble needs a decent hot air system to blow it up

schmittel wrote:

Bit speechless reading that. Hubert's assessment of councillors IQ seems to be spot on.

In fairness it always seems to be DCC that come out with these hair brained plans while the surrounding councils seem to be far more efficient and deliver affordable housing albeit in low numbers @ value for money for taxpayer

If this thread has proven anything. DCC should not be left to look after your back garden nevermind the centre of our capital city

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Every bubble needs a decent hot air system to blow it up




In fairness it always seems to be DCC that come out with these hair brained plans while the surrounding councils seem to be far more efficient and deliver affordable housing albeit in low numbers @ value for money for taxpayer

If this thread has proven anything. DCC should not be left to look after your back garden nevermind the centre of our capital city

I wouldn’t ldnt confine acts of stupidity and incompetence to Dublin City council.

PropQueries

Here's an interesting investment property for sale in Ahascragh, Co. Galway.

It was initially looking for €680,000 (price in the original brochure), then it was €490,000. Now it has dropped it's price to €390,000.

I does seem to show that noone knows how to value anything, propertywise, in Ireland anymore IMO

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/main-street-ahascragh-ballinasloe-galway/4257369

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I wouldn’t ldnt confine acts of stupidity and incompetence to Dublin City council.

Neither would I, but they appear to be putting severe pressure on the measuring scale

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Here's an interesting investment property for sale in Ahascragh, Co. Galway.

It was initially looking for €680,000 (price in the original brochure), then it was €490,000. Now it has dropped it's price to €390,000.

I does seem to show that noone knows how to value anything, propertywise, in Ireland anymore IMO

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/main-street-ahascragh-ballinasloe-galway/4257369

surely an investment property is valued in relation to its yield?

im not sure no one knows how to value anything any more, id argue more expensive stuff outside the more desirable areas is harder.

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

I does seem to show that noone knows how to value anything, propertywise, in Ireland anymore IMO

It's not that long ago when nearly one side of the main the main street in Charleville, co Cork sold for less than that at an allsop auction

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

This is a completely new initiative from DCC and I don't believe anyone could have foreseen this.

According to the Irish Times: "Dublin City Council to consider using public parks for Traveller housing schemes"

DCC also said "We will face opposition to proposals and we would welcome strong political leadership to support new development proposals brought before Councillors for approval."

I don't think anyone can now now seriously disagree with building social homes on Phoenix Park if this latest proposal goes through IMO. And, I'm not saying that in jest.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-to-consider-using-public-parks-for-traveller-housing-schemes-1.4479511

I doubt they will be putting halting sites in public parks.



But I have it on good authority from a friend in the know that they are looking to buy a site for sale in North Dublin (well a large house on about an acre of land), to move the halting site from the airport to. Some people who think that the house with a huge garden for sale beside them are going to be getting a lot of new neighbors, instead of one family moving in.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

surely an investment property is valued in relation to its yield?

im not sure no one knows how to value anything any more, id argue more expensive stuff outside the more desirable areas is harder.

Fully agree with that. And, that's where the state comes in relation to property valuations in Ireland. If the state aren't interested in renting a particular property, even in the cities, what's the potential yield and hence the valuations?

I think this explains all the empty new built apartments and houses in Dublin. If the state won't rent them or subsidise the rent through HAP etc., the demand simply isn't there for the rents they're seeking, so the potential yields and valuations are all out of whack IMO

The state should realise by now that they're the only real customer in town and should act accordingly in their negotiations IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Fully agree with that. And, that's where the state comes in relation to property valuations in Ireland. If the state aren't interested in renting a particular property, even in the cities, what's the potential yield and hence the valuations?

I think this explains all the empty new built apartments and houses in Dublin. If the state won't rent them or subsidise the rent through HAP etc., the demand simply isn't there for the rents they're seeking, so the potential yields and valuations are all out of whack IMO

The state should realise by now that they're the only real customer in town and should act accordingly in their negotiations IMO

Are there lots of empty new build houses in Dublin ?

Villa05

The senior public servant that repeatedly and strongly advised against the shared ownership scheme appears to be moving to the department of health


Just saying!

PropQueries

Villa05 wrote: »

The senior public servant that repeatedly and strongly advised against the shared ownership scheme appears to be moving to the department of health


Just saying!

Unfortunate as he was one of the few smart ones there IMO

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Not sure about the precise taxation position, but the article I linked yesterday highlights a notable difference.



The difference in government attitude and thus policy is why investors can get twice the yield in Ireland as they do in Germany.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-a-solution-to-irish-house-price-silliness-1.4476967?localLinksEnabled=false

This article is now free to read on David McWillliams's website.

One point he made that I thought was interesting was: "For example, when rents start rising in the German capital, the Berlin authorities impose rent controls. This sends a clear signal to everyone that the State will not tolerate rents that rise far above income – such rents serve only to enrich landowners while penalising everyone else."

Link to David McWilliams's article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/a-solution-to-irish-house-price-silliness/

Villa05

PropQueries wrote:

One point he made that I thought was interesting was: "For example, when rents start rising in the German capital, the Berlin authorities impose rent controls. This sends a clear signal to everyone that the State will not tolerate rents that rise far above income – such rents serve only to enrich landowners while penalising everyone else."

A simple no cost solution to affordabilty

Sends a signal to land speculators/hoarders as well.
A city's wealth is derived from its people not property. Policy should reflect that.

Taxpayers funds provide much of the infrastructure that allows cities to function, yet private funds can hold the taxpayer to ransom for affordable housing while they are the greatest beneficiary of taxpayer funded infrastructure

Organised theft

The Berlin rental market has been a complete mess over the last few years. Rent controls have no solved all their problems and they aren't going to.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/berlin-s-rent-cap-could-fall-victim-to-law-of-unintended-consequences-1.4411756
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/berlin-rent-freeze-cuts-prices-but-it-s-harder-to-find-a-flat

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

A simple no cost solution to affordabilty

Sends a signal to land speculators/hoarders as well.
A city's wealth is derived from its people not property. Policy should reflect that.

Taxpayers funds provide much of the infrastructure that allows cities to function, yet private funds can hold the taxpayer to ransom for affordable housing while they are the greatest beneficiary of taxpayer funded infrastructure

Organised theft

Yes further regulation and meddling in the market will fix things.

Villa05

Jabari Flabby Dice wrote:

The Berlin rental market has been a complete mess over the last few years. Rent controls have no solved all their problems and they aren't going to.

Money printing perhaps the cause, which Germans would be strongly against
Notable also that Germany opened up to the refugee crisis a number of years ago

The principle of the measures remain, keep land prices in check and it will be far easier to keep housing affordable

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

The senior public servant that repeatedly and strongly advised against the shared ownership scheme appears to be moving to the department of health


Just saying!

Clearly this is part of the conspiracy. Move him and give him a pay rise to keep him quiet. All in the public eye. Scandalous

PropQueries

Jabari Flabby Dice wrote: »

The Berlin rental market has been a complete mess over the last few years. Rent controls have no solved all their problems and they aren't going to.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/berlin-s-rent-cap-could-fall-victim-to-law-of-unintended-consequences-1.4411756
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/berlin-rent-freeze-cuts-prices-but-it-s-harder-to-find-a-flat

Nothing to do with Berlin privatising their social housing?

"Since 1991, Berlin has sold over 200,000 public homes. Most have since fallen into the hands of a few major corporate giants like Deutsche Wohnen, which alone owns around 110,000 units in the city."

People there should genuinely ask where all this money from the privatisation went. I've been to Berlin and it obviously didn't go into the city's infrastructure IMO

The common thread here appears to be that selling all the taxpayers assets to a few big investors to keep funding pay rises and pensions for a city's civil service isn't a good idea. If they sold them to the occupants at the time at least the city would have benefited somewhat IMO

Which begs the questions. The government and media here have been pushing the German model of housing for the past several years. It seems noone spotted what they really meant was privatisation of social housing to a few big investors and at significant long-term cost to the taxpayer. Looks like we were really sold a pup by both the state and Irish media IMO

Link to article here: https://citymonitor.ai/housing/affordable-housing/berliners-want-to-expropriate-250000-homes-heres-what-stands-in-their-way

Timing belt

Jabari Flabby Dice wrote: »

The Berlin rental market has been a complete mess over the last few years. Rent controls have no solved all their problems and they aren't going to.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/berlin-s-rent-cap-could-fall-victim-to-law-of-unintended-consequences-1.4411756
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/berlin-rent-freeze-cuts-prices-but-it-s-harder-to-find-a-flat

Another article on the topic with no pay wall
"Some things in Berlin are grimly familiar – an acute housing shortage and a political system failing to resolve it. Berlin, like Dublin and the rest of Ireland, also has a strikingly low population density. "

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/anmeldung-5194958-Sep2020/

hometruths

Jabari Flabby Dice wrote: »

The Berlin rental market has been a complete mess over the last few years. Rent controls have no solved all their problems and they aren't going to.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/berlin-s-rent-cap-could-fall-victim-to-law-of-unintended-consequences-1.4411756
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/berlin-rent-freeze-cuts-prices-but-it-s-harder-to-find-a-flat

An unintended consequence of the rent controls has been an increase in supply for sale:

In September, the number of Berlin homes for sale was up 13% from the year before, and the increase for those built before 2014 was 23%, ImmoScout reports. Traditionally, Berlin has been a city of tenants, with more than 80% of the population renting. If the trend of buying homes continues, that number will shift toward the national average of about half.

Seems preferable to an increase in the number of vacant properties.