2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

An unintended consequence of the rent controls has been an increase in supply for sale:



Seems preferable to an increase in the number of vacant properties.

I would be more concerned with medium term consequences. Will regulation lead to a decrease in construction leading to shortages down the line, then back to square 1..?

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

Another article on the topic with no pay wall
"Some things in Berlin are grimly familiar – an acute housing shortage and a political system failing to resolve it. Berlin, like Dublin and the rest of Ireland, also has a strikingly low population density. "

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/anmeldung-5194958-Sep2020/

Grimly familiar indeed:

This is a war between settled Berliners and the young people from near and far who want to establish themselves.

Since the former by definition outnumber the latter at the ballot box, there is no motivation for politicians to reverse course. So, the more this damages Berlin’s economy, the more entrenched it becomes.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I would be more concerned with medium term consequences. Will regulation lead to a decrease in construction leading to shortages down the line, then back to square 1..?

For sure but the article suggests that the government to have an eye on the medium term:

City officials say the freeze was intended to give renters “breathing room” while Berlin seeks to increase construction to at least 20,000 new homes annually, more than four times the level in 2010. That goal is now in sight as developers in the city last year built 18,999 new homes.

I suspect the government would build the units themselves if they felt the need for it.

Point being they are OK with saying we need some short term pain here to fix longer term problems. Even acknowledging that seems to be better than the situation we're in.

MacronvFrugals

Isnt the fact that investors are running desperately to property for yields a symptom of a wider problem?

The 0% QE taps have made housing markets the world over miserable places, parasitic is a word that fits quite well...

JimmyVik

What we need are 6 - 8% interest rate again.
This low interest mortgage environment is the main reason for house prices being so high if you ask me.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

For sure but the article suggests that the government to have an eye on the medium term:



I suspect the government would build the units themselves if they felt the need for it.

Point being they are OK with saying we need some short term pain here to fix longer term problems. Even acknowledging that seems to be better than the situation we're in.

Strategic thinking by public servants. Who’d a thunk it? I presume they are accountable for their actions (or lack of)...

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Strategic thinking by public servants. Who’d a thunk it? I presume they are accountable for their actions (or lack of)...

Not as accountable as they used to be! (by their superiors)

Timing belt

JimmyVik wrote: »

What we need are 6 - 8% interest rate again.
This low interest mortgage environment is the main reason for house prices being so high if you ask me.

Rates have been falling for 30-40 years so even if they bring rates back to 0% it will crash the stock market, houses prices, companies with debt, governments with debt.... it wouldn't even be a car crash it would be a pile up on the motorway.

JimmyVik

Timing belt wrote: »

Rates have been falling for 30-40 years so even if they bring rates back to 0% it will crash the stock market, houses prices, companies with debt, governments with debt.... it wouldn't even be a car crash it would be a pile up on the motorway.

Credit for house buying is too cheap.

MacronvFrugals

Honest question, what would have happened if the FG/Lab government didn't invite REITs/Investors to Ireland?

I'm assuming mountains of empty properties and hundreds of thousands still in negative equity?

If so it was truly a Faustian bargain!

Timing belt

JimmyVik wrote: »

Credit for house buying is too cheap.

I agree but they can't change it without crashing everything.

Timing belt

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Honest question, what would have happened if the FG/Lab government didn't invite REITs/Investors to Ireland?

I'm assuming mountains of empty properties and hundreds of thousands still in negative equity?

Banks would have failed ECB stress tests and would have needed another bailout which would have been more tax rises and expenditure cuts. By offloading the debt to investors they got them to bailout the banks but at a cost.

MacronvFrugals

Timing belt wrote: »

Banks would have failed ECB stress tests and would have needed another bailout which would have been more tax rises and expenditure cuts. By offloading the debt to investors they got them to bailout the banks but at a cost.

Thanks Timing,

This combined with Draghi's "Whatever it takes" really did cause a free for all, does anyone else ever get the feeling we(EU) never truly recovered from 2008-2010?

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Rates have been falling for 30-40 years so even if they bring rates back to 0% it will crash the stock market, houses prices, companies with debt, governments with debt.... it wouldn't even be a car crash it would be a pile up on the motorway.

But isn't that how the west advanced over the past few hundred years i.e. creative destruction.

We now know that the central banks can print cash so maybe it's time to raise interest rates to 5% (inflation or no inflation) and get us back on track.

Let these zombie companies go bust. The central banks can then print money for a guaranteed income for all e.g. €200 per week. Enough to live miserably on, but enough to live but not enough to satisfy 95% of the population. This will get the west back on track again IMO.

hometruths

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Honest question, what would have happened if the FG/Lab government didn't invite REITs/Investors to Ireland?

I'm assuming mountains of empty properties and hundreds of thousands still in negative equity?

The idea that thousands of people needed to be rescued from negative equity/falling house prices is why we're in the mess we have today.

The best two cures for negative equity are give it time to recover, or if that is not an option, take the hit asap. Instead we tried to speed up the recovery time and tried to ensure that nobody had to take the pain.

If FG/Lab had pursued policies that accepted negative equity as unfortunate but necessary fall out of a housing boom and bust both the housing market and their own political capital would be in better shape now.

Timing belt

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Thanks Timing,

This combined with Draghi's "Whatever it takes" really did cause a free for all, does anyone else ever get the feeling we(EU) never truly recovered from 2008-2010?

It depends on what you define as recovered. Has the financial condition of the banks and insurance companies in Europe improved so it less likely that they go bust... yes because QE enabled them to rebuild their balance sheets cheaply.

Has it improved for the no the normal consumer... not really.. interest rates are lower and the banks have cash to lend but they can't find customers to lend to because they either already have to much debt or are outside the banks risks appetite. All this while asset prices rise making everything more unaffordable.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Clearly this is part of the conspiracy. Move him and give him a pay rise to keep him quiet. All in the public eye. Scandalous

Sometimes your posts are as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

The idea that thousands of people needed to be rescued from negative equity/falling house prices is why we're in the mess we have today.

The best two cures for negative equity are give it time to recover, or if that is not an option, take the hit asap. Instead we tried to speed up the recovery time and tried to ensure that nobody had to take the pain.

If FG/Lab had pursued policies that accepted negative equity as unfortunate but necessary fall out of a housing boom and bust both the housing market and their own political capital would be in better shape now.

I agree with you on this, just look at USA and how they did it...but you need to remember that if they took the 'hit asap' in Ireland it would have had a major impact on the banks which at the point in time were owned by the government. If someone in negative equity walks away it is the bank that is left holding the loss which means the government underwriting the debt at a time when they had the IMF on their backs.

MacronvFrugals

Dublin City Council is told to be ‘very careful’ when rezoning industrial land for housing

The council has surveyed the potential of underused industrial estates to provide land for housing. As part of the review of all low-intensity industrial areas, a number of industrial sites have already been rezoned for more intensive residential developments.

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/dublin-city-council-is-told-to-be-very-careful-when-rezoning-industrial-land-for-housing-e5690d67

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

But isn't that how the west advanced over the past few hundred years i.e. creative destruction.

We now know that the central banks can print cash so maybe it's time to raise interest rates to 5% (inflation or no inflation) and get us back on track.

Let these zombie companies go bust. The central banks can then print money for a guaranteed income for all e.g. €200 per week. Enough to live miserably on, but enough to live but not enough to satisfy 95% of the population. This will get the west back on track again IMO.

More than just Zombie companies would go bust.... you are taking about total sectors of the economy going bust and massive wealth destruction.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

I agree with you on this, just look at USA and how they did it...but you need to remember that if they took the 'hit asap' in Ireland it would have had a major impact on the banks which at the point in time were owned by the government. If someone in negative equity walks away it is the bank that is left holding the loss which means the government underwriting the debt at a time when they had the IMF on their backs.

You also need to remember that the losses at the banks/government level were realised anyway when they sold loan portfolios for cents in the euro.

What the government did was realise the losses by selling the loans, and then create an environment where the security for those loans could not be enforced, resulting in a decade of grossly misallocated capital.

If that capital had been reinvested and allocated efficiently we'd all be much better off.

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Dublin City Council is told to be ‘very careful’ when rezoning industrial land for housing




https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/dublin-city-council-is-told-to-be-very-careful-when-rezoning-industrial-land-for-housing-e5690d67

Did they give a reason on why they should be careful? If solving the supposed housing shortage really is their primary concern and they've already signaled they intend to use our public parks for housing, what do they really have to lose at this stage?

MacronvFrugals

schmittel wrote: »

The idea that thousands of people needed to be rescued from negative equity/falling house prices is why we're in the mess we have today.

The best two cures for negative equity are give it time to recover, or if that is not an option, take the hit asap. Instead we tried to speed up the recovery time and tried to ensure that nobody had to take the pain.

If FG/Lab had pursued policies that accepted negative equity as unfortunate but necessary fall out of a housing boom and bust both the housing market and their own political capital would be in better shape now.

The people (mostly young) that took the pain will deliver SF a majority very soon unless FF/FG sort housing out.

I'm early/mid 20s and there is a very odd wave of discontent among this age group its difficult to quantify

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The people (mostly young) that took the pain will deliver SF a majority very soon unless FF/FG sort housing out.

I'm early/mid 20s and there is a very odd wave of discontent among this age group its difficult to quantify

the people in early to mid 20s didnt take the pain though.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

Did they give a reason on why they should be careful? If solving the supposed housing shortage really is their primary concern and they've already signaled they intend to use our public parks for housing, what do they really have to lose at this stage?

It seems they're worried about speculation Props -

Dr Dáithí Downey, head of housing policy and research with Dublin City Council, said the council needed to proceed cautiously with further plans to rezone lands, however, to avoid speculation of land prices.

“We have to be very careful not to trigger any kind of major assetisation or any kind of major speculation on the land use that we have,” Downey told a public forum discussing the new Dublin City Development Plan last week.

hometruths

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The people (mostly young) that took the pain will deliver SF a majority very soon unless FF/FG sort housing out.

I'm early/mid 20s and there is a very odd wave of discontent among this age group its difficult to quantify

A few years ago I would have ranted and raved about this, soapboxed about how the young have short memories, and generally argued against the idea that you should vote SF.

But at this stage I completely understand and would probably think the same if I was your age!

It seems that, internally at least, FF may have sensed they way the wind is blowing:

Mr Ó Broin said on Tuesday morning: “It’s clear that there’s a shift in Fianna Fáil’s position in relation to Sinn Féin and I welcome that.” His remarks came on RTÉ Radio One’s Today with Claire Byrne Show. He also said that in his view the “crucial thing on the other side of the general election is are parties going to talk about doubling capital investment to deliver large volumes of social and affordable homes for working families”.

If true this is a welcome development. Nightmare scenario is FF and FG paint themselves into a corner re SF, then SF are biggest party in next election and their only option to form a government is with PBP etc. That is truly terrifying!

MacronvFrugals

schmittel wrote: »

But at this stage I completely understand and would probably think the same if I was your age!

It seems that, internally at least, FF may have sensed they way the wind is blowing:

I dont think its just internally anymore schmittel, from yesterday's Irish Times

FF TDs would not exclude Sinn Féin coalition after next election

While some party members expressed concerns about Sinn Féin’s policies, almost every Fianna Fáil TD who responded to queries from The Irish Times expressed a willingness to sit down with Sinn Féin after the next election.

Some TDs also said they believed the party made a mistake in not doing this after the 2020 general election.

Those who are open to the possibility include senior party members such as Jim O’Callaghan as well as Ministers of State Robert Troy and James Browne.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-f%C3%A9in-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483

hmmm

SF's plan to fill the place with council housing estates isn't the answer. We tried that before and it was a disaster, it's not going to be different this time.

What needs to happen is reform of the planning system, remove the influence of NIMBYs and other objectors, and build where people want to live. The demand is there, the supply isn't.

HansKroenke

PropQueries wrote: »

So there we go. We have the solution to the supposed lack of land problem for building houses in the city. It's called Phoenix Park

I think the better solution is to get rid of golf clubs inside the M50 and use that land for parks and housing / new villages within Dublin.

cnocbui

HansKroenke wrote: »

I think the better solution is to get rid of golf clubs inside the M50 and use that land for parks and housing / new villages within Dublin.

The furore I caused a year or so ago when I first suggested that. I was told to get lost.

Not to mention the utter incongruity of full blown farm backing onto DCU. Only in Ireland.