2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

schmittel wrote: »

Tourism is not really supposed to be a big driver of domestic rents.

No but currently are properties that were used for short term rent now being used for long term. I could be wrong but wasnt there an increase in rentals available once the likes of AirBnb was no longer possible?

schmittel wrote: »

Yep, you're right - I just meant that if tourism is being relied upon to keep rents stable, it is weak fundamentals.

Landlords offering STLs for tourism in RPZs is illegal. If this was actually enforced we could see rents drop very quickly.

Ah no just countering props idea that we could see a 50% drop in rent in 2 years.

Construction sites to re-open on March 5, says Housing Minister

Construction sites will be allowed to re-open on March 5, Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien has said.

He said the closure of sites means the delay of the delivery of between 700 and 800 homes per month and he wants sites open again as soon as it is safe to do so.

He said the decision to close sites was not to do with a concern of the safety of sites, but more to do with the wider national effort to limit social contacts.

“We are working towards March 5, in terms opening up of the construction site sector, as it can be done safely. The provision of homes and housing is crucially important, essential, in my view,” he said.

This should help not further constrict supply


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40222511.html

PropQueries wrote: »

The article is very good. The writer points was that when you include corporation tax, the taxes on their workers salaries, VAT on their local purchases etc., that 40% of government revenues are dependent upon multinationals in Ireland and that the Government should be keeping a closer eye on the upcoming global tax changes and Biden, UK and EU looking to take these taxes and jobs back to their own countries.

You can read one article in the Sunday Times free by signing up.

Link to Sunday Times article here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cormac-lucey-white-house-has-its-finger-on-the-trigger-and-is-targeting-our-corporation-tax-take-vx7rh0zvr

Fair enough if you include the income tax from the people working for them and the tax take on their spending I could see how you might get to 40%, but that's not what the poster I replied to was saying. He said specifically that Ireland was totally reliant on corporation tax which is obviously not true.

Its worth pointing out without social transfers our poverty rate would be 42%


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/spotlight/arid-40213142.html

fliball123 wrote:

Could this be a game changer for the rental market? Just listening to P.Kenny talking about it on newstalk right now. 25% below market and long term contracts and only for people working.

From my time when I was renting, a good tenant could nearly always find a good landlord and together both would be happy with a significant discount on market rates.

I like the focus on people working for this scheme, but considering rents were 40% above 2007 peaks recently. I think we could do better or make this an income generator for the state to fund expansion

schmittel wrote:

Yep, you're right - I just meant that if tourism is being relied upon to keep rents stable, it is weak fundamentals.

IAmTheReign wrote:

Fair enough if you include the income tax from the people working for them and the tax take on their spending I could see how you might get to 40%, but that's not what the poster I replied to was saying. He said specifically that Ireland was totally reliant on corporation tax which is obviously not true.

We were not totally reliant on construction taxes in the noughties. Its the recurring spending that is implemented from these taxes that is the issue

Villa05 wrote: »

Tax is dodged by reits here, I'd doubt it very much if that is the case in Germany

What are the "populist" policies in the Irish housing market. I'm struggling to pinpoint one. Is it rent controls
Its quiet clear to most here that the private sector is dictating policy and their agenda is profit for them and risk to the state

No country should be any way reliant on construction. It is a sector that is byproduct of the economy not a driver of it

How difficult is it to plan for a supply demand balance when you have over 20 years notice of a person being born and at an age when they might have a housing need or 30 years when they might buy.
We know from income data that 50% of the population will struggle to buy/rent then we need to have alternatives to the private sector for that.

We are not trying to reinvent the wheel here

I rented in Germany for a few years.
Try staying in a rental and not paying your rent over there.
You wouldnt get away with it like in Ireland.
Less risk than for the property owner in Ireland.
In Ireland risk is a big part of the rent.

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its worth pointing out without social transfers our poverty rate would be 42%


https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/spotlight/arid-40213142.html

so ireland is basically a liberal welfare state with archaic housing policies.


im all for tax money being used wisely towards such programs to help those in need - however questions need to be asked (and answered) when people earning good income salaries cant even get on the property ladder due to lack of supply driving prices up.



For example - to deal with supply why cant people get planning permission for alternative housing such as shipping containers or log cabins etc. as a main residence if they own the land.



because the state doesnt want that? why not?



there is no creative thinking at all.

PropQueries wrote: »

What are the mechanisms available to landlords over there if a tenant doesn't pay their rent?

Loss 3 months rent worth deposit for the start.

JimmyVik wrote: »

I have an idea.
Id like to take a break and go on the dole for a few years.
Sick of paying tax through every orifice for the last 25 years.
But no, im not allowed to get the dole if I quit. Im like the slave that is getting the blood rung out of him to feed the people who do nothing.Let someone on the dole take my job, please. Let them pay the tax and i'll gladly swap that job for their dole at this point. Too much tax, from all directions.

Good luck on paying for rent (yes they do pay some no matter how small), food, electricity, gas, broadband, mobile phone, clothing, footwear, car, petrol, insurance, travel once a year to a wedding etc. on €203 a week.

Just out of curiosity. For the posters who seem to truly believe that giving up their job and being on the dole would make them better off, have they looked at their ESB/Gas bill after Christmas?

PropQueries wrote: »

Leo Varadkar last November called for “a grown-up conversation on increasing Employers' and Employees' PRSI to fund a reformed social insurance system, including income-linked unemployment benefits.”

...

There’s only property, pensions and inheritance taxes left to tax IMO

...

Link to RTÉ article on Leo calling for a grown-up conversation on PRSI hikes here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1123/1180017-low-pay-prsi/

Ireland already has the highest inheritance taxes in the world. Make them even higher, why not, comrade.

The_Conductor wrote: »

...

We are already signed up to continuous increases in carbon taxes- alongside a new road tax that is divorced from the notion of crucifying older cars while not making new cars pay their shares.

Income taxes may not increase- however, we urgently need a new band- and a broadening of the base to bring more people into the tax bands- including a tally of *all* income (the whole notion of exempt income, be it social welfare disbursements, subsidised housing or whatever- it all needs to be tallied and taxed). Until such time as the notion of a free-hand-out gets hit on the head for once and for all, we're going to be sunk.

Residential property tax- is a joker- its set at such an implausibly low level on the one hand, and the size of a dwelling has no input into the tax on the other hand. It makes perfect sense to thoroughly reform this- however, the whole notion of people living in rural mansions versus shoebox apartments in Dublin- also needs to be addressed in this one.

Its not just housing though- its across the board- we may have one of the great redistributive tax systems- however, its at the cost of a squeezed middle who are well capable of working far more productively, but who don't, because our penal rate of taxes and charges kicks in at an abnormally low level of circa 35k. We need to incentivise this group- its hard to motivate people when a majority of their marginal income is going straight to the government.

...

A lot of the discussions and changes that have to happen- are going to be terribly unpopular, and our gormless politicians have shown that they don't have the gonads to look beyond the media and the court of public opinion. Frankly- its a foregone conclusion that they are going to fail on this.

While I agree with you about the necessity to broaden the tax base, I vehemently disagree about raising property taxes. My local council is so well funded that in my village, they spent an absolute fortune ripping up perfectly good concrete sidewalks and replacing them with pavers. There is no way in hell I see any need to raise property taxes by 400-500%. In other countries, property taxes such as you propose come with the provision of rubbish collection services and the like. They are not justified here.

I'd like to have a grown up conversation with Varadkar. This country already places a heavy tax burden on income tax payers, and not much on corporations. It's tax burden that is important, not whether the tax is called carbon, PRSI, Income, Inheritance, TV Licence, Insurance surcharge or whatever.

Irish governments only have one sort of grown-up conversation they want to have and that is how much more they can take, it's never about reforming the costs, it's always stuff like increasing staffing levels of Revenue so they can take more, never reducing staffing levels of the public service so they don't need to take more. It's never about government doing stuff to reduce the utterly ridiculous expensiveness of Irish society and it's disfunctions. The legal system; the cost of insurance - these are in the remit of the government to make vastly less costly, but don't - myriad other costs that the government imposes via requirements, such as BER certificates and a disfunctional 19th century property register system. Western Australia fixed that one about 30 years ago. In WA you can go cradle to grave without needing to hire a lawyer. Property transactions can be swift and an absolute breeze and low-cost, since you don't need a f'n lawyer!

This government stops people from buying cheaper generic meds from elsewhere in the EU and the government, or pharmacists, conspire to ensure they are effectively unavailable here. The health system is deliberatly configured to be slow, inefficient and costly - not being able to see a specialist without a referral, for example.

The Public Service is so fu*king bloated that they pay people to feel up incoming parcels in case someone tries to buy functional herbal medicines that are legal world-wide - then pays them to write you a snarky supercillious letter telling you you youv'e been a naughty girl/boy and not to do it again. So long as my taxes are paying for that sort of sh​it you can keep your not needed tax increases.

Meanwhile, my son has had an application for an Irish passport pending for 16 f'n months!!!!!! Greater efficiency is needed, not more money.

Ireland has the second highest paid public servants in the EU, and too many of them, that's what needs fixing, not more gouging to pay for them.

Dole - welfare is a grain in sand.. just over 1B. Peasants are worrying about the crumbs of kings table.
https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/

Villa05 wrote: »

How do we stop property being a leech on the economy?

Increase supply and limit market manipulation from everyone government/landlords/tenants & mortgage arrears.

What is it the worst that happens if we end up with to much supply.... surely it is better than a lack of supply as it gives options as long as it’s not controlled by a monopoly.

The_Conductor wrote: »

Strip pensions and children's payments (childrens benefit etc) out of the equation- and you still have a cool 10billion to go through to identify cuts.

Norway and other Nordic countries can afford generous social welfare systems- hell Norway holds over 200k per head of population in its sovereign wealth fund- Ireland, on the other hand- owes 54k per head of population (and rising).

If/when interest rates ever increase- we are so screwed. Even in this era of low interest rates- we still paid roughly 5.5 billion in interest on sovereign debt in 2020...........

We need to strip billions out of our expenditure, and identify new methods of taxing the Irish populace (and close loopholes that the wealthy like to exploit- including the 180 day rule etc).

I think that's already beginning to happen. It was reported in the FT today: USA "30-year bond yield rises to 2% on expectations that government support will fuel price rises".

How long more will investors be willing to lend to Ireland at 0%?