2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Smiley11

No offence lads but you should really set up a private argument thread between yourselves. I've resorted to scrolling through pages & pages of 28k/7k posts which have produced absolutely nothing definitive for all of the rambling.

The only reason I'm still following is that occasionally, something interesting pops up & of course, I have a vested interest in the property market presently. The reality for every single poster here is that not one of us can predict the future. There is no property genius here (& I'm not implying that any of you purport to be one) but please give it up with the arguments over nothing. Maybe you came up with some interesting "fact" while I was scrolling, but I doubt it.
I'm sure most reading here would love to read anything interesting you have to say but a few here have lost the run of themselves with sniping. Pointless. All we want to do is buy or sell a house in an insane market. Snipe amongst yourselves & more power to you if you choose to do so.

I am pretty sure that comments here are created by number of PA who play "independend opinion " here.Same names,same opinions.Time to close this "discussion" because the only point here Buy Property Now because it will be more expensive after.The prices will Up because demand is high and supply is low.Same songs every day from 2019.

Smiley11

I'm not isolating any particular person but the way the thread has gone recently isn't helpful to anybody. Its killing the thread & only that I really want to buy a house this year, I'd be gone. Hands up, desperation is me clinging here.

I'm certainly not independent or unbiased but something has to give here because its quite toxic & pointless. Seems to be a lot of muscle flexing in "Prove it", "Show it", "Where did you find that data?". Give it a rest lads, you're never going to win this thread, none of us will. Its impossible.

It would just be nice to see people whose names we don't recognise contribute but honestly the way its gone has to be unbelievably off-putting to genuinely interested posters. I'd say they must look at the last 50 pages & run for the hills! I'm genuinely saying please start a thread amongst yourselves because a lot of us have a long slog ahead & have no interest in what you seem to deem important.

PommieBast

Smiley11 wrote: »

I'm certainly not independent or unbiased but something has to give here because its quite toxic & pointless. Seems to be a lot of muscle flexing in "Prove it", "Show it", "Where did you find that data?". Give it a rest lads, you're never going to win this thread, none of us will. Its impossible.

The 2020 thread ended much the same. More or less an argument between people wishing for either 2007 or 2011 prices. Was a seperate thread much more specific to those actually buying/selling but I left that one when I pulled out of my most recent Sale Agreed and forget its name.

Smiley11

I was on the 2020 thread too unfortunately but I just feel a lot of us here have had a hard year, whether we've succeeded in buying/selling or not. I'm on the more specific thread also but they're all of interest to me in our current predicament.

The chest pounding is just a waste of everybodys time. These guys could easily set up a thread amongst themselves & pound to their hearts content without the rest of us having to wade through the aforementioned. I never want to see 28k/7k figures ever again...unless theres a conclusive point to it all. I nearly broke my thumb with the furious scrolling.

Why did you pull out of your Sale Agreed if you don't mind my asking? I'm not asking for a lot of detail but genuinely interested as I've seen a few houses come back on the market in the last couple of weeks in Cork, not the house I want of course but c'est la vie!

Timing belt

I calculated some data to see what affordability looked like at a county level.

The logic I used was:
- I found the median wage for the area, for people renting privately from the 2016 census
- I got the Average house price was taken from Geo-directory 2020 Q4 report
- I then assumed that a couple were both on the median wage and worked out how much of a deposit and mortgage they would need to buy an average priced house in the area.
- I then calculated what % of the max mortgage that the couple could take out based on the CBI rules (3.5 x salary)
- I then calculated what a mortgage repayment would be on a 30yr mortgage @ 3% and included the average rent as per daft 2020 Q3 report.

The results were as follows:
Median Salary Average house price Deposit Mortgage Required % of Max mortgage Mortgage Repayment Monthly Rent
Wicklow 40,024 € 381,441 101,275 280,166 100% 1,181 1,489
Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown 67,696 € 596,976 123,104 473,872 100% 1,998 2,223
Fingal 49,337 € 406,458 81,292 325,166 94% 1,371 1,749
Dublin City 52,344 € 427,638 85,528 342,110 93% 1,442 2,035
South Dublin 47,549 € 365,392 73,078 292,314 88% 1,232 1,834
Galway City 42,631 € 318,744 63,749 254,995 85% 1,075 1,363
Kildare 44,224 € 318,744 63,749 254,995 82% 1,075 1,415
Galway County 35,903 € 257,864 51,573 206,291 82% 870 937
Cork City 40,661 € 290,943 58,189 232,754 82% 981 1,443
Meath 41,759 € 291,372 58,274 233,098 80% 983 1,393
Cork County 39,647 € 272,845 54,569 218,276 79% 920 1,057
Louth 33,484 € 226,631 45,326 181,305 77% 764 1,294
Wexford 31,140 € 201,607 40,321 161,286 74% 680 896
Limerick 34,899 € 219,596 43,919 175,677 72% 741 943
Waterford 32,666 € 205,501 41,100 164,401 72% 693 990
Kerry 31,410 € 195,409 39,082 156,327 71% 659 898
Kilkenny 37,004 € 224,366 44,873 179,493 69% 757 1,033
Clare 34,146 € 194,943 38,989 155,954 65% 658 900
Carlow 33,536 € 187,861 37,572 150,289 64% 634 864
Westmeath 34,815 € 194,420 38,884 155,536 64% 656 1,048
Laois 34,409 € 189,944 37,989 151,955 63% 641 1,030
Donegal 26,411 € 144,945 28,989 115,956 63% 489 655
Offaly 34,407 € 175,231 35,046 140,185 58% 591 974
Tipperary 32,760 € 165,369 33,074 132,295 58% 558 874
Monaghan 33,590 € 168,980 33,796 135,184 57% 570 1,393
Mayo 31,317 € 148,525 29,705 118,820 54% 501 744
Sligo 32,397 € 152,305 30,461 121,844 54% 514 785
Cavan 32,735 € 153,359 30,672 122,687 54% 517 769
Leitrim 27,930 € 126,316 25,263 101,053 52% 426 610
Roscommon 31,182 € 128,920 25,784 103,136 47% 435 728
Longford 30,743 € 122,989 24,598 98,391 46% 415 764



The one thing that stood out for me when looking at the data was that you can really see how WFH give's people a lot more options especially if they stay on a city wage.

Anyway I thought it was interesting so decided to share..

Cyrus

The one thing hopefully everyone can agree on is that in the context of over 2m is that 7k is statistically insignificant.

I doubt geo directory gave it 1 percent of the thought that some of you have.

If there are way more properties than we think then I’m sure we will see the number of available properties for sale (which is what really matters ) increase over the coming months/ years .

Zenify

Smiley11 wrote: »

its quite toxic & pointless. Seems to be a lot of muscle flexing in "Prove it", "Show it", "Where did you find that data?".

You hit the nail on the head here. I feel the same way. I've stopped reading the form many times because of this. I scroll through the arguments looking for a few good links relating to property news etc.

Toxic is the best word to describe it.

hometruths

I am clearly the guiltiest culprit on this, and understand it's tedious to wade through pages of tit for tat. Apologies.

There are a number of posters. two or three in particular, on here who, for whatever reason, try and contradict posts based on sound reasoning using spurious arguments. This was a perfect example claiming a mathematically impossible scenario as an alternative valid explanation.

I just find it incredibly frustrating, and whilst it would obviously be simpler just to move on and let it pass, if you do so, these same posters then use it against you in the future to say:

"Oh you only see what you want to see in the data, you misrepresent that, you are spinning the numbers, you have no proof of that, we've called you out on this before, you have a history of this, you're a conspiracy theorist etc."

It's a no win situation. But I get that it clogs up the thread, apologies.

PropQueries

A quick round up of the main stories in the past week that may impact the property market this year:

1. We did indeed build over 20k new build residential units in 2020.

2. Councillors are investigating the premium price being paid by DCC for building residential units on their own land.

3. The LDA may be able to take land off councils to start building if latest proposals are passed.

4. A developer apparently is seeking up to c. €1m per apartment from DCC for social housing in the docklands.

5. A story for the rural posters. 47 vacant apartments were sold in Ballybofey.

6. For the bulls. TicTok is apparently looking at several office buildings in Dublin and has shortlisted 5 buildings including the sorting office that google pulled out of last year.

What caught my eye was: “The two other locations under consideration are currently occupied, but those tenants are preparing to leave, the person said.”.

So, which companies are preparing to leave enough office space in the city to accommodate up to twice the number of employees that TicTok is seeking office space for? Not giving the bulls everything

The last one is in the Irish Independent today (link below).

Link to Irish independent here: https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/tiktok-shortlists-five-dublin-sites-for-new-headquarters-40057880.html

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

I am clearly the guiltiest culprit on this, and understand it's tedious to wade through pages of tit for tat. Apologies.

There are a number of posters. two or three in particular, on here who, for whatever reason, try and contradict posts based on sound reasoning using spurious arguments. This was a perfect example claiming a mathematically impossible scenario as an alternative valid explanation.

I just find it incredibly frustrating, and whilst it would obviously be simpler just to move on and let it pass, if you do so, these same posters then use it against you in the future to say:

"Oh you only see what you want to see in the data, you misrepresent that, you are spinning the numbers, you have no proof of that, we've called you out on this before, you have a history of this, you're a conspiracy theorist etc."

It's a no win situation. But I get that it clogs up the thread, apologies.

February 29th. Simple.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

A quick round up of the main stories in the past week that may impact the property market this year:

1. We did indeed build over 20k new build residential units in 2020.

2. Councillors are investigating the premium price being paid by DCC for building residential units on their own land.

3. The LDA may be able to take land off councils to start building if latest proposals are passed.

4. A developer apparently is seeking up to c. €1m per apartment from DCC for social housing in the docklands.

5. A story for the rural posters. 47 vacant apartments were sold in Ballybofey.

6. For the bulls. TicTok is apparently looking at several office buildings in Dublin and has shortlisted 5 buildings including the sorting office that google pulled out of last year.

What caught my eye was: “The two other locations under consideration are currently occupied, but those tenants are preparing to leave, the person said.”.

So, which companies are preparing to leave enough office space in the city to accommodate up to twice the number of employees that TicTok is seeking office space for? Not giving the bulls everything

The last one is in the Irish Independent today (link below).

Link to Irish independent here: https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/tiktok-shortlists-five-dublin-sites-for-new-headquarters-40057880.html

Nice selective choice of headlines there. No bias at all.

You forgot at least two mentioning new job creation in MNCs, in, shock horror, Dublin.

PommieBast

Smiley11 wrote: »

Why did you pull out of your Sale Agreed if you don't mind my asking? I'm not asking for a lot of detail but genuinely interested as I've seen a few houses come back on the market in the last couple of weeks in Cork, not the house I want of course but c'est la vie!

Due to an interesting turn of events I ended up renting a temporary flat that was in the same apartment block, which meant I became aware of certain issues. Not killers in themselves but then the attitude of the seller made me decide that I did not want to do business with them.


In hindsight it quite likley would have been an outright bad deal, but that is based on things that have happened since.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I believe he operates it under licence but the state own the building. Is that ok?

Thanks

MacronvFrugals wrote:

The below in bold about land hoarding I hadn't realized this was the consensus?

Truly amazing that a government would implement policy that is so much stacked against the citizens of that country

Would an invading enemy think of it?

MacronvFrugals wrote:

UN says Ireland applies 'preferential tax laws' to vultures funds and it 'cannot continue'

Timing belt wrote:

I calculated some data to see what affordability looked like at a county level.

Excellent work again, would it be possible to post a spreadsheet

decreds

With the news of talks beginning on extending the PUP and then introduce a tax contributed based social welfare system thereafter, one does have to wonder how long this can will be kicked down the road.

The cynic in me see's 2021 being a total write off and further lockdowns into mid 2022 at least, with new builds slowly coming to surface while the country is locked down coupled with a large cohort of people reluctant to advertise their property due to the virus. It may not be an out there prediction to see an abundance of property hit the market when we eventually kiss lockdowns goodbye, whenever this happens is anyone guess but for me the main concern is will there be as much demand for said properties once the knock on economic effects impact the population.

Full disclosure, i plan to buy in around 18 months time so i have vested interest. While i don't think i will get burned if i bought then, i'm simply contemplating how the market could shift within the next couple of years.

hometruths

Not a David McWilliams fan but he hits the nail on the head with his observations, contrasting Germany where housing is regarded as a cost, and Ireland where it is regarded as an asset. When you think of housing as a cost it fosters an attitude in the majority that prices should be fair and reasonable. If you think of it as an asset it leads people to believe that capital appreciation is the goal:

The Germans start with income – people’s wages – as the foundational price in the economy and work backwards from there.

Contrast this with Ireland. Here, we start with the price of houses as the foundational price and work around that.

We construct all sorts of wheezes to maintain this lunacy, irrespective of the reality of people’s incomes. We engineer help-to-buy schemes, shared-equity arrangements, first-time buyers’ grants, various interest rate products, 30-year mortgages, and buy-now-pay-later options.

All of these are designed to put people into long-term debt and short-term penury, in order to validate already inflated house prices. The implicit message is: “Don’t worry we’ll keep prices up, so you can eventually sell on to a greater fool and trouser the capital gain.”

The problem is that the greater fool is your children and their children.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-a-solution-to-irish-house-price-silliness-1.4476967?localLinksEnabled=false

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

Excellent work again, would it be possible to post a spreadsheet

There you go

Idbatterim

decreds wrote: »

With the news of talks beginning on extending the PUP and then introduce a tax contributed based social welfare system thereafter, one does have to wonder how long this can will be kicked down the road.

The cynic in me see's 2021 being a total write off and further lockdowns into mid 2022 at least, with new builds slowly coming to surface while the country is locked down coupled with a large cohort of people reluctant to advertise their property due to the virus. It may not be an out there prediction to see an abundance of property hit the market when we eventually kiss lockdowns goodbye, whenever this happens is anyone guess but for me the main concern is will there be as much demand for said properties once the knock on economic effects impact the population.

Full disclosure, i plan to buy in around 18 months time so i have vested interest. While i don't think i will get burned if i bought then, i'm simply contemplating how the market could shift within the next couple of years.

Given there was the option of borrowing tens of billions to stave off reality, itwas probably delusional to expect an immediate economic collapse. Will that be the case in a year or two ? We know supply will be very low. Last time there was the emigration valve, which may be open again if **** hits the fan. Depends on what kind of spend you are looking at... are you current being ripped off paying marjetcrebt in dublin. Big difference between a ten percent drop on 200k and one million.

decreds

Idbatterim wrote: »

Given there was the option of borrowing tens of billions to stave off reality, itwas probably delusional to expect an immediate economic collapse. Will that be the case in a year or two ? We know supply will be very low. Last time there was the emigration valve, which may be open again if **** hits the fan. Depends on what kind of spend you are looking at... are you current being ripped off paying marjetcrebt in dublin. Big difference between a ten percent drop on 200k and one million.

Will supply be very low once we eventually come out successive lockdowns once and for all though? That's what my post was getting at.

Given properties are still being built and the vast majority of sellers have put off placing their property on the market (due to virus fears), if this lasts for another 2 years we could well have a slow drip feed of new houses to the market coupled with a sudden release of 2nd hand properties after the virus subsides. Supply may not be that low as we think when this is all said on done (provided it lasts longer than 2021).

Smiley11

PommieBast wrote: »

Due to an interesting turn of events I ended up renting a temporary flat that was in the same apartment block, which meant I became aware of certain issues. Not killers in themselves but then the attitude of the seller made me decide that I did not want to do business with them.


In hindsight it quite likley would have been an outright bad deal, but that is based on things that have happened since.

Sounds like you had a lucky escape! Its interesting to see properties re-emerge having been sale agreed over 6 months but I guess you never know whats going on in the background. I think its going to be an interesting couple of years in the property market but I definitely feel we're in the weaker position where we want to buy at the moment.

Good luck with your search & hope it goes really well for you!

Smiley11

decreds wrote: »

Will supply be very low once we eventually come out successive lockdowns once and for all though? That's what my post was getting at.

Given properties are still being built and the vast majority of sellers have put off placing their property on the market (due to virus fears), if this lasts for another 2 years we could well have a slow drip feed of new houses to the market coupled with a sudden release of 2nd hand properties after the virus subsides. Supply may not be that low as we think when this is all said on done (provided it lasts longer than 2021).

Very difficult to know what direction we're heading this year really. I know myself that I started off positive in January but the tediously slow roll out of vaccines seems to be a huge problem for the foreseeable. Retail & tourism are scuppered for the time being & I'm wondering what effect all of this will have in the long term. I'm hearing opinions that we could effectively be in lockdown until late summer which is so depressing & I really hope is untrue.

We're just at an age where we don't have the luxury of being able to wait a couple of years to buy & we certainly can't impose on our parents for much longer.

If the property market remains as stagnant as it is presently, the outlook is very bleak for 2021. I'd give anything for a surge in second hand homes coming onto the market but I can't see it happening any time soon. Hopefully things will pick up after March because there are so many people who need homes & the current situation has to be unsustainable for myriad reasons.

Idbatterim

decreds wrote: »

Will supply be very low once we eventually come out successive lockdowns once and for all though? That's what my post was getting at.

Given properties are still being built and the vast majority of sellers have put off placing their property on the market (due to virus fears), if this lasts for another 2 years we could well have a slow drip feed of new houses to the market coupled with a sudden release of 2nd hand properties after the virus subsides. Supply may not be that low as we think when this is all said on done (provided it lasts longer than 2021).

Nobody knows. You may have a bit of pent up supply, but they wont sell at big discounts, why would they. They dont do foreclosures here and nobody will be kicked out of their PPP... Everything to do with property is glacial. For example, a mate bought just a month of two after this virus hit, he got 2-3% off the asking , million euro ish house in south dublin. Many of the lads were saying, offer 15-20% less, it was delusional. Take a huge chunk off, something that might come to pass... we were dealing with the then and now, the here and now. Will there be large drops in the future, possibly, but like I say, it is now abundantly clear, how glacial things move in general.

I think you can take several factors in and make a good guess at what the best option is, but nobody can tell exactly the best option without a crystal ball...

No way can I see a 2008 like collapse again, when we saw eventually how strong the bounce back was. The government snakes, well lets just say, they wont politically get away with giving away apartment blocks and then buying them back for ten times the price a few years later...

the question is, will we get away with grazing the iceberg or are we going to hit it head on... Nobody knows and the latter option COULD lead to a decent drop, but you would be looking at troika etc state of bad to see those kind of falls in my opinion. Because in dublin, there are simply so many high paid private and government secure jobs, that if cuts are inflicted, will be mickey mouse token gesture cuts most likely...

so it really depends where and what budget you are looking at IMO...

decreds

Idbatterim wrote: »

Nobody knows. You may have a bit of pent up supply, but they wont sell at big discounts, why would they. They dont do foreclosures here and nobody will be kicked out of their PPP... Everything to do with property is glacial. For example, a mate bought just a month of two after this virus hit, he got 2-3% off the asking , million euro ish house in south dublin. Many of the lads were saying, offer 15-20% less, it was delusional. Take a huge chunk off, something that might come to pass... we were dealing with the then and now, the here and now. Will there be large drops in the future, possibly, but like I say, it is now abundantly clear, how glacial things move in general.

I think you can take several factors in and make a good guess at what the best option is, but nobody can tell exactly the best option without a crystal ball...

No way can I see a 2008 like collapse again, when we saw eventually how strong the bounce back was. The government snakes, well lets just say, they wont politically get away with giving away apartment blocks and then buying them back for ten times the price a few years later...

the question is, will we get away with grazing the iceberg or are we going to hit it head on... Nobody knows and the latter option COULD lead to a decent drop, but you would be looking at troika etc state of bad to see those kind of falls in my opinion. Because in dublin, there are simply so many high paid private and government secure jobs, that if cuts are inflicted, will be mickey mouse token gesture cuts most likely...

so it really depends where and what budget you are looking at IMO...

Valid points. I agree that it's unlikely we will see a massive crash, i would be shocked with a 20% drop but i can easily see a healthy 10-12% pullback within the next 5 years. Which, shouldn't really discourage most from buying as if it's a house you will be living in long term it shouldn't make much of a difference and there's no point worrying too much about it.

decreds

Smiley11 wrote: »

Very difficult to know what direction we're heading this year really. I know myself that I started off positive in January but the tediously slow roll out of vaccines seems to be a huge problem for the foreseeable. Retail & tourism are scuppered for the time being & I'm wondering what effect all of this will have in the long term. I'm hearing opinions that we could effectively be in lockdown until late summer which is so depressing & I really hope is untrue.

We're just at an age where we don't have the luxury of being able to wait a couple of years to buy & we certainly can't impose on our parents for much longer.

If the property market remains as stagnant as it is presently, the outlook is very bleak for 2021. I'd give anything for a surge in second hand homes coming onto the market but I can't see it happening any time soon. Hopefully things will pick up after March because there are so many people who need homes & the current situation has to be unsustainable for myriad reasons.

Not to be negative but I think we will be in and out of lockdowns for the whole year and if these vaccines don't produce decent results we could be in successive lockdowns for years worst case scenario.


It is disheartening to think about but people can only put life on hold for so long and there is a huge amount of people in the same boat as yourself so it will be interesting to see how this all materializes especially if we are in lockdowns for a couple of years.

Timing belt

decreds wrote: »

Valid points. I agree that it's unlikely we will see a massive crash, i would be shocked with a 20% drop but i can easily see a healthy 10-12% pullback within the next 5 years. Which, shouldn't really discourage most from buying as if it's a house you will be living in long term it shouldn't make much of a difference and there's no point worrying too much about it.

A 10% pullback over the next 5 years would be very healthy for the market as long as it is driven by more supply becoming available and not due to a change in economic circumstances that would impact employment.

Idbatterim

Timing belt wrote: »

A 10% pullback over the next 5 years would be very healthy for the market as long as it is driven by more supply becoming available and not due to a change in economic circumstances that would impact employment.

if it was ten percent max , at some unknown future point,absolutely no point in waiting IMO. certainly if you are paying market rent now...

Villa05

decreds wrote:

Valid points. I agree that it's unlikely we will see a massive crash, i would be shocked with a 20% drop but i can easily see a healthy 10-12% pullback within the next 5 years. Which, shouldn't really discourage most from buying as if it's a house you will be living in long term it shouldn't make much of a difference and there's no point worrying too much about it.

Current government policy will guarantee a crash. It is pure boom bust policy, when it happens is anyone's guess crystal ball stuff

The policies pursued are inflationary in an already very expensive market, so we are very much in how big can blow the bubble before it bursts phase.

Remember the entity driving it is up to its eyes in debt.

hometruths

Villa05 wrote: »

Current government policy will guarantee a crash. It is pure boom bust policy, when it happens is anyone's guess crystal ball stuff

The policies pursued are inflationary in an already very expensive market, so we are very much in how big can blow the bubble before it bursts phase.

Remember the entity driving it is up to its eyes in debt.

My latest guess is summer 2023 into 2024. Thinking being we will see significant pent up supply come on to the market as next election looms, and it will snowball as people start to worry about risk of SF winning election and forming a government with PBP.

Whether that is a crash or not depends on if pent up demand keeps up with pent up supply in the meantime.

Timing belt

Idbatterim wrote: »

if it was ten percent max , at some unknown future point,absolutely no point in waiting IMO. certainly if you are paying market rent now...

100% agree as a 10% drop on a FTB home is equivalent to 2 years rent.

seenn00J

Villa05 wrote: »

Current government policy will guarantee a crash. It is pure boom bust policy, when it happens is anyone's guess crystal ball stuff

The policies pursued are inflationary in an already very expensive market, so we are very much in how big can blow the bubble before it bursts phase.

Remember the entity driving it is up to its eyes in debt.

While money continues to be relentlessly devalued by the ECB, federal reserve, etc through "Stimulus" (money printing in other words) programs, interest rates will remain low and money will remain cheap - I really can't see tangible assets, especially the likes of property suffering from a crash in prices. Far more likely to see the dollar or euro crash than the property market. Especially considering this is the preferred approach of a lot of countries in dealing with any post-covid recession recovery.