Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

redzerdrog · 07-02-2021 9:05pm

Saw nothing today that would worry me for al boum

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 10:29am

Slattsy wrote: »

You've dubbed me the Ante Post King (among other things :pac:) so he's what i have to date.

Singles:
Galvin 12/1 - NH Chase
Monkfish 10/1 - RSA
Delta Work 33/1 - Gold Cup (big price - i thought he ran well on Saturday)
Ballyadam 20/1 - Supreme and Ballymore

Multiples:
Galvin / Envoi Allen
Shishkin / Envoi Allen / Abacadabras
Shishkin / Abacadabras
Edited 03/11 to include:
Envoi Allen / Abacadabras
Envoi Allen / Shishkin (this a double i may top up again until the both inevitably become 6/4 shots)

I'm going to update this for full transparency. I cashed out both Ballyadam slips after he was stuffed over Christmas, probably should have kept one.
Tower Bridge; I've taken a lose on as i had him backed a few times.

Not sure if i have these listed somewhere else in the thread but here we go.

Hook Up 20/1 Mares novice hurdle
Saint Sam 14/1 (and 12/s) Boodles
Fakiera 14/1 AB (cashed out Ashdale Bob)
Kilcruit 10/1 Bumper
Gaillard Du Mesnil 8/1 Ballymore
Elimay 11/2 Mares Chase
Allaho 10/1 Ryanair
Chosen Mate/Entoucas both 25/1 Grand Annual

I'm really happy with them i must admit. Most prices have dropped dramatically.

Saint Sam wins the Boodle if he goes there. Which he will as he's been beaten twice by the fav and second fav, He's def their horse for it. Obviously the plan wasnt to place yesterday but i'm not sure how highly the handicapper will rate the winner even though it was a Grade 1. He just wins!!

Stevieluvsye · 08-02-2021 10:33am

Slattsy wrote: »

I'm going to update this for full transparency. I cashed out both Ballyadam slips after he was stuffed over Christmas, probably should have kept one.
Tower Bridge; I've taken a lose on as i had him backed a few times.

Not sure if i have these listed somewhere else in the thread but here we go.

Hook Up 20/1 Mares novice hurdle
Saint Sam 14/1 (and 12/s) Boodles
Fakiera 14/1 AB (cashed out Ashdale Bob)
Kilcruit 10/1 Bumper
Gaillard Du Mesnil 8/1 Ballymore
Elimay 11/2 Mares Chase
Allaho 10/1 Ryanair
Chosen Mate/Entoucas both 25/1 Grand Annual

I'm really happy with them i must admit. Most prices have dropped dramatically.

Saint Sam wins the Boodle if he goes there. Which we will as he's ben beaten twice by the fav and second fav, He's def their horse for it. Obviously the plan wasnt to place yesterday but i'm not sure how highly the handicapper will rate the winner even though it was a Grade 1. He just wins!!

If you are that confident, i'll take the 7/1 on offer this morning with PP. What do you think is SP will be however? (Saint Sam)

RivetingRoger · 08-02-2021 10:35am

A thought
Gordon has the 2 best horses in the triumph market
Gordon has no market leader in the Supreme unless it drys up considerably

Could we see Zanahiyr go the Supreme, and how far would he win it by?

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 10:36am

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

If you are that confident, i'll take the 7/1 on offer this morning with PP. What do you think is SP will be however? (Saint Sam)

Still 10s with Bet365. He'll go off 4/1 favourite with Townend on board.

Stevieluvsye · 08-02-2021 10:39am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

A thought
Gordon has the 2 best horses in the triumph market
Gordon has no market leader in the Supreme unless it drys up considerably

Could we see Zanahiyr go the Supreme, and how far would he win it by?

Zanahiyr is my banker along with Kilcruit for the week. Going to do a decent size double this morning.

Zanahiyr would take care of Appreciate it no problem but think he goes for Triumph

Hawkhead70 · 08-02-2021 12:03pm

A couple of sky bet specials available
Chacon pour soi & monkfish double @ 5/1

Chacon pour soi single 7/4

IAMAMORON · 08-02-2021 12:15pm

It was a great weekends racing, but I would be careful pouring on your fancies for the festival just yet.

It might be worthwhile doing an analysis of trials weekend and how those results transfer to the festival. I know it does not seem like it now, but in 5 weeks the ground will good/ good/soft ... expect improvement from novice hurdlers who don't like stodgy ground.

Trust me any value in the AP prices is now gone and gone for ever. You are better off holding out for decs now. In fact any change in AP is going to be purely hype driven now. So when Ruby Walsh tells a reporter that Elimay is an airplane and they considered the Arkle for her, expect a point off her price whilst the stooges start lumping. We are well into the silly season now for hype and bullshight.

For the record, last years DRF winners

Saturday
Latest Exhinition - beaten at Cheltenham
Chacun Por Soi - didn't travel
Notebook - unplaced Arkle
Eclair De Beufeu - placed grand annual
Honeysuckle - Won Mares Hurdle
Thosedaysaregone - placed coral cup
appreciatae It - beaten at Cheltenham
Sunday
Black Tears -placed Coral Cup
A Wave of the Sea - unplaced Triumph
Asterion Forlonge - 4th Supreme
TreacysEnniscorthy - didn't travel
Faugheen - beaten plate race
Delta Work - beaten Gold Cup
Glamorgan Duke - didn't travel
Darling Daughter - unplaced bumper.

Only one winner from last years Dublin festival went on to score at the festival. The only trend I am beginning to see is that the handicap winners all went on to do well at the festival, but invariably the graded winners did not follow up. Worth noting for anyone drooling over the weekends winners thinking it is all an easy game.

Stevieluvsye · 08-02-2021 12:24pm

Some good points above. I'll mention one horse before i make a point about WPM brigade. Surely Put the kettle on is overpriced @ 12's for the CC. I think it s unbeaten around cheltenham (might be wrong) Anyone agree?

OK, s i have been thinking about WPM brigade this morning. He stated at the xmas festival that he changed some of his methods to ensure they were all primed for xmas festival. Again, his horses were all in prime form at the weekend. Now in general i always tend to avoid Mullins horses until March/April when he cleans up.

I think it could be the opposite this year that his horses may not be at the same level they have shown in 6 weeks time. I am basing this only on a hunch but a strong hunch.

On the flipside, i think Big G will have a huge festival. I think the Morans in te past year have forked out a small fortune on some decent animals so a close eye will be kept also in the spring.

Anyway, i'm predicting 7+winners for him

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 12:29pm

What price Ireland to win the Prestbury Cup?

Pogue eile · 08-02-2021 12:44pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Still 10s with Bet365. He'll go off 4/1 favourite with Townend on board.

PP are NRNB which is a must if you are backing him, there has been no mention of going this race, we haven't seen the entries yet never mind the weights and it's Willie Mullins after all.

If he does go there, he will be weighted to the hilt having finished relatively close to the main players in the Triumph, and I can't think of a worse race for favourites that the Fred Winter/Boodles. 16 runnings of the race and 8 winners priced 20/1 or over and only 2 winning favourites.

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 1:07pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

PP are NRNB which is a must if you are backing him, there has been no mention of going this race, we haven't seen the entries yet never mind the weights and it's Willie Mullins after all.

If he does go there, he will be weighted to the hilt having finished relatively close to the main players in the Triumph, and I can't think of a worse race for favourites that the Fred Winter/Boodles. 16 runnings of the race and 8 winners priced 20/1 or over and only 2 winning favourites.

But where else is he going to go? I'm not backing him as 7/2 fav on the day.

He wont go the Triumph as he wont beat either of GE's, and Willie has French Aseel. He'll either go Boodle or simply skips Cheltenham. Weight isnt an issue - he'll have the best form (dont think Adagio or Duffle Coat will run) and is very likely to have a fair bit up his sleeve.

All my opinion of course, i've been wrong once before, but i think he rocks up in the Boodles

Pogue eile · 08-02-2021 1:47pm

Slattsy wrote: »

But where else is he going to go? I'm not backing him as 7/2 fav on the day.

He wont go the Triumph as he wont beat either of GE's, and Willie has French Aseel. He'll either go Boodle or simply skips Cheltenham. Weight isnt an issue - he'll have the best form (dont think Adagio or Duffle Coat will run) and is very likely to have a fair bit up his sleeve.

All my opinion of course, i've been wrong once before, but i think he rocks up in the Boodles

If he has a 'fair bit up his sleeve' then why is he not going to the Triumph?

Backing a WPM horse Ante Post that has multiple entries is a short cut to the poor house and especially in a race that is full of unexposed horses, he has been campaigned very strangely for something that the Boodles has been the plan.

Gordon Elliot has the pick of all the juveniles, what ever he sends here will be favourite on the day. You say that Saint Sam won't go here because Willie has French Aseel but then suggest Duffle Coat won't run here, even though he is Elliots 3rd string?

Saint Sam would have a great chance depending on his mark if he turns up here, but saying that 'he just wins' and advocating backing a horse AP or the sake of 3pts difference with NRNB is just bad advice.

Coneygree · 08-02-2021 1:48pm

Slattsy wrote: »

What price Ireland to win the Prestbury Cup?

I can't find a market but if anyway decent at all it would surely be banker of the festival.

Stevieluvsye · 08-02-2021 1:52pm

I emember reading an article about 15 years ago from a "pro punter" and he said the nap of the week is pretty much always backing that the ground would be declared good to soft. Said it pretty much covered his first day bets allowing for max stake on such market

Pogue eile · 08-02-2021 1:57pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I know it does not seem like it now, but in 5 weeks the ground will good/ good/soft ... expect improvement from novice hurdlers who don't like stodgy ground.

Trust me any value in the AP prices is now gone and gone for ever. You are better off holding out for decs now.

Why do you think the ground will be Good or Good/Soft? It has been Soft for the last two years and we have already had two meetings cancelled in Cheltenham this season because of rain?

No value at all? Don't agree with this at all, you talk about overhyped favourites etc. well if this is the case then by its very nature there has to be value elsewhere??

Pogue eile · 08-02-2021 1:58pm

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I emember reading an article about 15 years ago from a "pro punter" and he said the nap of the week is pretty much always backing that the ground would be declared good to soft. Said it pretty much covered his first day bets allowing for max stake on such market

See my post above, things change, even Claisse cant declare it as Good to Soft anymore and even when he did it was never really the case.

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 1:59pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

If he has a 'fair bit up his sleeve' then why is he not going to the Triumph?

Backing a WPM horse Ante Post that has multiple entries is a short cut to the poor house and especially in a race that is full of unexposed horses, he has been campaigned very strangely for something that the Boodles has been the plan.

Gordon Elliot has the pick of all the juveniles, what ever he sends here will be favourite on the day. You say that Saint Sam won't go here because Willie has French Aseel but then suggest Duffle Coat won't run here, even though he is Elliots 3rd string?

Saint Sam would have a great chance depending on his mark if he turns up here, but saying that 'he just wins' and advocating backing a horse AP or the sake of 3pts difference with NRNB is just bad advice.

Bolded is clearly pinch of salt stuff, its horse racing and most people here know my form. So i doubt anyone has gone out and taken out a 10k loan from the credit union on foot of this, so less of the amateur dramatics please.

Its ap betting of course there's a risk. I like an ap punt, its not a secret, and i've given my clear reasoning why i fancy it. You dont have to agree with me.

And fwiw i have a feeling Duffle Coat runs in the Triumph. Maybe his mark will dictate where he runs more so than Saint Sam.

krustydoyle · 08-02-2021 1:59pm

So lads.. I've 2 decent punts on Wide Receiver for the Ballymore and AB at good prices.. Feeling like I should cash out as its looking like they are going down the handicap route.. Any opinions??

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 2:00pm

Coneygree wrote: »

I can't find a market but if anyway decent at all it would surely be banker of the festival.

1/10 shot! Couldnt find a market either.

Pogue eile · 08-02-2021 2:00pm

Slattsy wrote: »

What price Ireland to win the Prestbury Cup?

Coneygree wrote: »

I can't find a market but if anyway decent at all it would surely be banker of the festival.

It was 4/7 last year, wont see a market for this until the week.

Be doing well to get 1/3 this year.

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 2:02pm

krustydoyle wrote: »

So lads.. I've 2 decent punts on Wide Receiver for the Ballymore and AB at good prices.. Feeling like I should cash out as its looking like they are going down the handicap route.. Any opinions??

He's their Martin Pipe horse by all accounts. I'd be cashing out.

hawaii501 · 08-02-2021 2:02pm

Its 2/7 on skybet at the moment...get the mortgage/rent on!!

Pogue eile · 08-02-2021 2:04pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Bolded is clearly pinch of salt stuff, its horse racing and most people here know my form. So i doubt anyone has gone out and taken out a 10k loan from the credit union on foot of this, so less of the amateur dramatics please.

Its ap betting of course there's a risk. I like an ap punt, its not a secret, and i've given my clear reasoning why i fancy it. You dont have to agree with me.

And fwiw i have a feeling Duffle Coat runs in the Triumph. Maybe his mark will dictate where he runs more so than Saint Sam.

Well already one relatively new poster has indicated they were going to back it owing to your bullish posts so I was simply pointing out the flaws, I do like the irony of you advising someone else to lay off the dramatics though, thank you, always good to start the week with a laugh!!

What mark are you willing to back him up to and what is your cut off to say he is too high in the handicap??

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 2:04pm

hawaii501 wrote: »

Its 2/7 on skybet at the moment...get the mortgage/rent on!!

Its short but it just comes in doesnt it?

Coneygree · 08-02-2021 2:11pm

hawaii501 wrote: »

Its 2/7 on skybet at the moment...get the mortgage/rent on!!

That's like backing Altior or Douvan to win their Arkles! Lump on!

Pogue eile · 08-02-2021 2:12pm

Slattsy wrote: »

He's their Martin Pipe horse by all accounts. I'd be cashing out.

Will he get in to the Martin Pipe? Rated 130 in Ireland and that was before yesterday, cutoff for the Martin Pipe is usually around 134-136. They're playing a dangerous game if that is the plan.

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 2:18pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

Well already one relatively new poster has indicated they were going to back it owing to your bullish posts so I was simply pointing out the flaws, I do like the irony of you advising someone else to lay off the dramatics though, thank you, always good to start the week with a laugh!!

What mark are you willing to back him up to and what is your cut off to say he is too high in the handicap??

I'll caveat all my posts going forward then shall I? "Back at your own financial risk and not on the advise of Slattsy" :rolleyes:

If a man wants to have a bet on a horse after my reasoning let him. (I'm assuming he's 18+!!)

It wont be me who decides he's too high in the handicap, Willie Mullins will do that

Slattsy · 08-02-2021 2:20pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

Will he get in to the Martin Pipe? Rated 130 in Ireland and that was before yesterday, cutoff for the Martin Pipe is usually around 134-136. They're playing a dangerous game if that is the plan.

No not at the moment, i dont think he was meant to finish near last yesterday. Unless he's injured they'll have to run him again.

Stevieluvsye · 08-02-2021 2:21pm

I'm hoping Mig or Slattsy hear about an Unsinkable Boxer horse very soon...................Jesus, 33's, 25's,16's

First time in my life i had over 1k punts in my hands. The pub i worked in alone must have taken minimum 50k off the local ladbrokes alone. Never forget that race

Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

Comments