COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Its important to note that they use cases to predict future hospital admissions.

They use a formula based on the hospitalisation rate which flexes depending on the age groups where cases occur. Later when people are vaccinated but still positive cases it will further flex as these people will be less likely to be hospitalised.

1000 cases a day means x hospitalisations. It means they don't have to wait the time between diagnosis and hospitalisations.

Potential hospitalisations and it depends on who the 1,000 are, one reason their projections are missing the mark.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Its important to note that they use cases to predict future hospital admissions.

They use a formula based on the hospitalisation rate which flexes depending on the age groups where cases occur. Later when people are vaccinated but still positive cases it will further flex as these people will be less likely to be hospitalised.

1000 cases a day means x hospitalisations. It means they don't have to wait the time between diagnosis and hospitalisations.

I suppose we are kind of making the same point. The variables/constants in that formula will obviously change when vaccines take effect. There's no way the formula they're using now will be applicable when >=70% of the population are vaccinated. Hopefully they won't even need a formula!

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Of course it depends. They do flex the formula based on what age groups are having levels of infection but that's not perfect.

My point was that cases importance as a measure for deciding on restrictions is partially due to the ability of the statisticians to predict future hospital (and icu) numbers from them.

As they rise yes, as they fall not so much. Government preference is for easing as soon as it can be done and the other factors kick in at that point.

Sweet.Science wrote: »

So if AZ are no longer going to over 65s and will arrive imminently , has it been decided where they are going ?

Whoever is next otherwise, probably Groups 4 & 6 first.

Widescreen wrote: »

In respect of expecting when to get the vaccine anyone speculate on what happens if you're just 64? And is it likely to be Astra Zeneca?

My guess is it's hard to know. Pfizer supplies and Moderna, in much smaller amounts, are more robust at present and AZ could still be low in April, when I reckon the under 65s will start.

titan18 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1357252721531830276

Bear with us apparently so to me it sounds like they've no clue.

No it means be patient!

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's in short supply

Why wasn't contingency planning in place?

Bit late putting a plan in place now

We can not afford anymore delays with the AZ shortfall

Anybody know how many vaccines per week we're getting delivered now?

We will be getting about 57k of az a week from the week of 8 February to the end of March. Probably less in early Feb and more in late March.

After how the first few weeks have gone I have 100% confidence in the vaccine committee to sort it all out

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Thanks

That seems awfully small total per week but all on supply side unfortunately

If we gat 57k and use 50k plus I’m ok with that

Anyone know if the AZ vaccine is suitable for adults with high risk medical conditions or will they be advised to take Pfizer/ Moderna?

Do we know for sure what our deliveries of AZ, Pfizer and Moderna are going to be over the next four months. Or even ballpark figures?

JDD wrote: »

Do we know for sure what our deliveries of AZ, Pfizer and Moderna are going to be over the next four months. Or even ballpark figures?

Next 4 months? Any specific reason for that time period.

I believe we know rather accurately what we will get in q1 ie the rest of February and March.

We also would have an idea what we will receive in q2 (ie April may June) but I don't think we know what will be received in specific months so if you say next 4 months you won't get an answer.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

With respect given the events of the past 10 years I HIGHLY highly doubt Ukraine would accept a Russian vaccine

We had somewhat of a dislike for the England who speak the same language as us and have a similar culture but we still bought their products, all sorts of products, including vaccines, by the boat load. Why would you think Ukrainians who have a similar culture and more or less speak the same language as Russians, have very similar tastes etc would be any different? It’s not personal, it’s political, you should try and separate the two. Other than fringe wackos on both sides the burning hatred you think exists between Russians and Ukrainians never actually materialised in reality.

Van.Bosch wrote: »

That’s ridiculous, the announcement was only made 24-48 hours ago. I’m glad they’re not coming up with a new plan in a rush. Sounds to me like they know it needs to change, know it’s urgent but want to do it right to gain most impact. Sounds good to me.

SHould have contingency plans in place. It's been pretty well rumoured/signposted for a week or two that AZ might not have been approved for over 65s and for a month or two, it was known that there was a lack of test data in that group so I think it's pretty bad not to have a contingency plan in place.