FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Zogabomb · 31-01-2021 10:24PM

Daz_ wrote: »

And I thought this was supposed to be the technical model discussion forum ...

It's a Fantasy Island Model Discussion, AuntySnow has given his opinion on what he thinks in a few weeks time based on model runs!

Jizique · 31-01-2021 10:24PM

AuntySnow wrote: »

Right I've made my mind up on this
The solution has more tweaks to come in the same direction in my opinion
The trend seems to be forwards and backwards but momentum along the same road to the country eventually covered in minus 10s and 11's about mid fdbruaryish I'd expect maybe sooner
Less marginality with each brush with cold as they come,from here on , I would think before the main event(s)

Rising temperatures this week according to Siobhan

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2021 10:36PM

Always a good sign to see Met Eireann oblivious to the upcoming cold spell!! Watch them come kicking and screaming to our train of thought as the week goes on.
Almost more fun than seeing snow on the ground lol☺

Oneiric 3 · 31-01-2021 10:48PM

EC at day 10. Quite the spectacle to see almost the entire north American continent, along with the good part of the European continent, under cooler than average conditions at the same time.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-01-2021 10:49PM

Daz_ wrote: »

And I thought this was supposed to be the technical model discussion forum ...

Forecasting is not just looking at models. In fact, models are actually well down the order when it comes to forecasting and should only be used as a last check to refine what you think will happen based on knowledge, experience, etc.

munsterlegend · 31-01-2021 10:55PM

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Forecasting is not just looking at models. In fact, models are actually well down the order when it comes to forecasting and should only be used as a last check to refine what you think will happen based on knowledge, experience, etc.

Now you tell us..

TheMilkyPirate · 31-01-2021 10:56PM

18z has the low further west and weakening much faster

bazlers · 31-01-2021 10:59PM

A nation holds its breath!

munsterlegend · 31-01-2021 11:01PM

bazlers wrote: »

A nation holds its breath!

Gfs O’Leary against ECM Lung (I think) ...

Holy Duck · 31-01-2021 11:06PM

Are we there yet
Are we there yet
Are we there yet

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2021 11:09PM

Turning chilly by Saturday on latest GFS

gfs-1-138.png?18?18

TheMilkyPirate · 31-01-2021 11:11PM

GFS holds firm and is an upgrade on the 12z

TheMilkyPirate · 31-01-2021 11:14PM

Run of the week coming up from the pub run

Artane2002 · 31-01-2021 11:16PM

-12c uppers into eastern Northern Ireland, I don't think they'll make it further south though.

gfseuw-1-162.png?18

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2021 11:24PM

The 18z has been down the pub all day, probably a Leeds fan.

Artane2002 · 31-01-2021 11:25PM

surely it's going to be an outlier? it feels too good to be true and might be close to my personal definition of a beasterly! here it is at T192.

gfsnh-0-192.png?18

Edit: It actually brings widespread -12c uppers on Sunday, I somehow missed that! I want to wish for slightly lower thicknesses but maybe that's a bit cheeky!

TheMilkyPirate · 31-01-2021 11:26PM

T2Pauly · 31-01-2021 11:32PM

If these come to fruition will the Irish Sea snow machine be in full flow from Saturday ? Hoping we get buried ❄️ ❄️

bazlers · 31-01-2021 11:35PM

Artane2002 wrote: »

-12c uppers into eastern Northern Ireland, I don't think they'll make it further south though.

munsterlegend wrote: »

Gfs O’Leary against ECM Lung (I think) ...

Yes its there! ; ) exceeded expectations. Need it to hold steady now and ECM to be a good boy and do as we tell it..

munsterlegend · 31-01-2021 11:41PM

All go to bed happy to find that when we wake up the 00z runs have done a complete u-turn. We never learn!

bazlers · 31-01-2021 11:44PM

munsterlegend wrote: »

All go to bed happy to find that when we wake up the 00z runs have done a complete u-turn. We never learn!

Correct and we dry our tears and start all over again. Nice to see though.

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2021 11:48PM

Artane2002 wrote: »

-12c uppers into eastern Northern Ireland, I don't think they'll make it further south though.

Your spot on!! Remains -11 everywhere else!

Artane2002 · 31-01-2021 11:52PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Your spot on!! Remains -11 everywhere else!

the -11s around most of the country could be rounded down to -12c so I'd be happy to be wrong this one time

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2021 11:57PM

Still not convinced.
Burnt too many times and heights remain flimsy.
It could easily end up just dry and cold or Atlantic winning out.
The trend is our friend for now!!

Kunta Kinte · 31-01-2021 11:59PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Your spot on!! Remains -11 everywhere else!

Artane2002 wrote: »

the -11s around most of the country could be rounded down to -12c so I'd be happy to be wrong this one time

Where are you seeing the -11 uppers figure on that chart? Or is this an in joke?

Artane2002 · 01-02-2021 12:01AM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Still not convinced.
Burnt too many times and heights remain flimsy.
It could easily end up just dry and cold or Atlantic winning out.
The trend is our friend for now!!

I'm also unconvinced but surprisingly it's not a cold outlier! There are nine runs that go colder than the op, with perturbation 11 bringing -14.5c uppers and the mean is -8.4c at its lowest. it'll probably be back down to earth on the 0z though?

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

Where are you seeing the -11 uppers figure on that chart? Or is this an in joke?

I posted a chart from theweatheroutlook showing the -11/-12c uppers. it's at the top of the page if you're on the desktop website.

Kermit.de.frog · 01-02-2021 12:18AM

Setting up fairly nicely on ICON

01-02-2021 12:21AM

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Beautiful chart
A low heading SE for where the pesky iberian high used be
I suppose I don't have to tell anyone what a northeasterly in -10 to -12 uppers would do from Louth to waterford
Probably give them only few hour's to call friends in the next county inland warning them of what's coming before communications go down

Kermit.de.frog · 01-02-2021 12:52AM

oohhh I have the OP for the build up thread ready and a full explanation of how this will compare to Tom Crean's Antarctic expedition for the average Joe

Just need the ECM on board

Davaeo09 · 01-02-2021 01:08AM

The Irish sea would be balmy compared to those temps!
Snow machine on switch at the ready!

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST