Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) Mod warning in OP 22/01

Theboinkmaster · 24-01-2021 08:36PM

khalessi wrote: »

Yes but they are not testing close contact therefore the numbers are not telling true story

I strongly disagree

Last Sunday was 2,946, Sunday before was 6,886...
1,378 is massive reduction we are well on our way again ðŸ¥³ðŸ¥³ðŸ¥³

We are making great progress because of the restrictions

km79 · 24-01-2021 08:36PM

billy_beckham wrote: »

Are you seriously equating opening schools with the opening of hospitality and non essential retail??

No
I am saying we shouldn’t rush to do things differently just as soon as what we are doing starts to work !

khalessi · 24-01-2021 08:37PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I strongly disagree

Last Sunday was 2,946, Sunday before was 6,886...
1,378 is massive reduction we are well on our way again &#55358;&#56691;&#55358;&#56691;&#55358;&#56691;

We are making great progress because of the restrictions

You can disagree all you want they are not testing close contacts

Locotastic · 24-01-2021 08:38PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

Is there any way to start a poll re school reopenings?
I propose bringing forward the mid term break by 1 week and reopening the 3rd week of February. That way it’s just one extra week of home schooling. That’s still 3 weeks away and if you look at 3 weeks ago, cases have dropped a lot.
Of course there so many variables and this situation is so fast moving - it’s hard to keep up.

Caveats - why did Mícheal Martin state on the radio yesterday that schools wouldn’t all be back before St Patrick’s day out of the blue? If the Government have new information on different variants - we should be levelled with a bit more. It’s hard to justify keeping schools closed indefinitely with cases falling to levels they’ve previously been open at.

Would make sense to bring mid term break forward now and see how things are in a weeks time. I'd rather it now than down the line, same with Easter tbh.

Michael Martin shouldn't have said it unless he was going to outline a clear plan, of course usual half leak communication which is stressful for everyone.

am_zarathustra · 24-01-2021 08:38PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Also GP friend of mine said that what the worldwide scientific community are afraid of is a mutation of the SA and one of the Brazilian variants. Said that in the worse case scenario none of the 4 vaccines either in production or in trials will cover that.

This is a numbers game too. The molecular clock will basically tick for every single single viral particle out there. It's not a coincidence these varients have appeared in areas where numbers were out of control, like Brazil and SA. Keeping numbers down makes varients less likely, while the vaccination program will take the number of viral particles circulating down reducing and eventually, hopefully, eliminating the chance of mutation.

So far the mutations are minor enough though, bind effeiciancy changes are normal enough, more like people with different colour hair than different species. Hard to know exactly how much a proofreading virus will alter by at this level in the worldwide community but probably best we don't find out.

CruelSummer · 24-01-2021 08:39PM

rainbowtrout wrote: »

Cases are falling, but numbers in ICU are high. That's the real problem. Having 10,000 cases a day would be grand if no one ended up in ICU.

The Times are reporting this evening that it's not likely that schools will be fully reopen until shortly before Easter. I had to google when Easter was this year - April 4th, so I would read that as just after St. Patrick's Day.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/most-children-may-not-return-to-classroom-until-close-to-easter-1.4466623

We should be informed, but we are not. Like everything else it will be last minute and half-assed. And I suspect Norma will not be making the decision, someone else will make the decision and she will be told what to say at the resulting press conference.

True, but hospitalisations are very high due to the reopening in December, Christmas plus U.K. variant. I’m hoping the hospital situation will stabilise soon - but it is a concern and needs to be in better shape before reopening.
We’re now and will be in Level 5+ until late Feb. Unless there’s something the UK have shared with Ireland re transmission rates in schools for B117 - I think a case could be made to reopen schools in Feb if our numbers were good.

Theboinkmaster · 24-01-2021 08:40PM

khalessi wrote: »

You can disagree all you want they are not testing close contacts

Yeah so what? The true story as you put it is there has been a massive reduction in infection rates the past 2 weeks.

Even when they resume testing close contacts we will easily be below 1,000 daily cases by mid Feb.

Icyseanfitz · 24-01-2021 08:42PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Yeah so what? The true story as you put it is there has been a massive reduction in infection rates the past 2 weeks.

Even when they resume testing close contacts we will easily be below 1,000 daily cases by mid Feb.

Here's hoping

CruelSummer · 24-01-2021 08:47PM

Although this article seems to suggest there isn’t a hope of it...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/most-children-may-not-return-to-classroom-until-close-to-easter-1.4466623?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Theboinkmaster · 24-01-2021 08:51PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

Although this article seems to suggest there isn’t a hope of it...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/most-children-may-not-return-to-classroom-until-close-to-easter-1.4466623?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Ah Irish media negative click bait!

If at 22 Feb we are testing close contacts and are at 500 cases a day I’d love to see what excuse the may have for special needs and primary schools not to be back. Hospital and ICU nos will be dropping by then also.

Bananaleaf · 24-01-2021 08:52PM

The truth is that nobody knows. I don't know, you don't know, your GP friend doesn't know and the government don't know.

That is not to say we can't all speculate and discuss it, but none of us know.

Maybe we will be back Feb 22. Case numbers are going down and that is great. Means nothing with or without contact tracing though. ICU numbers are being stubborn and this is what will drive the decision in my opinion. Let's see what happens in 4 weeks time.

khalessi · 24-01-2021 08:56PM

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Ah Irish media negative click bait!

If at 22 Feb we are testing close contacts and are at 500 cases a day I’d love to see what excuse the may have for special needs and primary schools not to be back. Hospital and ICU nos will be dropping by then also.

I dunno maybe the fact that this a more virulent strain and enchanced ppe needed and hospitals not under strain for a start hopefully achievable soon. MM certainly learnt something that made him decide schools were not coming back until March

Mrsmum · 24-01-2021 08:56PM

It's all a bit weird. The Government were always the ones pushing for schools to be open but now they seem to be the only ones talking about St Patrick's Day or even Easter, at a time when cases are speeding downwards. Do they know something we don't ??

Theboinkmaster · 24-01-2021 09:00PM

khalessi wrote: »

I dunno maybe the fact that this a more virulent strain and enchanced ppe needed and hospitals not under strain for a start hopefully achievable soon. MM certainly learnt something that made him decide schools were not coming back until March

You need to read that article again - he never said that. He said all children back then so suggested a phased re opening. I agree with that make sense. Plus all this talk on the new strain is completely unsupported by scientific evidence - it’s a bit coincidental everyone is hyped about these new strains the month after the country went absolutely mad for Christmas.

Obviously there’s a serious lag between cases and ICU nos but I do think we will see hospitals and ICU rates dropping in 3 weeks time.

Remember 3 weeks is a long time - 3 weeks ago we were reporting 6,000+ daily cases and now we are 1,400 or so.

Icyseanfitz · 24-01-2021 09:02PM

What they need to do is come out and give us a 4 week plan one way or the other, reassess after said 4 weeks. This wait and see what each day brings isn't good for anyone.

Theboinkmaster · 24-01-2021 09:03PM

Mrsmum wrote: »

It's all a bit weird. The Government were always the ones pushing for schools to be open but now they seem to be the only ones talking about St Patrick's Day or even Easter, at a time when cases are speeding downwards. Do they know something we don't ??

Could be playing simple politics to manage expectations and then look like absolute heroes when they open earlier. Taking advantage of current media negativity...

rainbowtrout · 24-01-2021 09:04PM

khalessi wrote: »

I dunno maybe the fact that this a more virulent strain and enchanced ppe needed and hospitals not under strain for a start hopefully achievable soon. MM certainly learnt something that made him decide schools were not coming back until March

Yes, they've been determined to keep schools open come hell or high water all along. So if he's able to turn around this week and say 'no, probably not until March' then there must be some reason for it. God knows, the government don't like teachers, if they thought they could reopen on Monday they would.

St.Spodo · 24-01-2021 09:09PM

It may be that there are too many unknowns regarding the new variant. Germany and Austria are making FFP2 masks mandatory in work, shops and public transport because it's believed the masks we've been using will be insufficient. For anyone who tuned in to the public health webinar for teachers and SNAs during the week and heard that the existing mitigation measures would be sufficient to deal with B117 variant, it must be noted that this is an interesting development.

Locotastic · 24-01-2021 09:20PM

rainbowtrout wrote: »

God knows, the government don't like teachers, if they thought they could reopen on Monday they would.

The government don't like teachers??

Is it not the profession to be found in high numbers across our government throughout the years?

In fact wasn't MM a teacher early on and Enda Kenny too.

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/tds-as-teachers-5008126-Feb2020/

Consistently been the largest professional background for TDs and senators apparently.

deiseindublin · 24-01-2021 09:30PM

History Queen wrote: »

The fact the SEC refused tobe part of the calculated grades fiasco from the off last year spoke volumes for me.

Supposedly SEC couldn't take part in CGs as their remit is to run/correct exams only. There were two people, or maybe three, seconded to CGs.

I would love LC to happen this year but my gut is that it probably won't, no matter what we're told this week. They can't tell us what they don't know.

Also can't tell us to give up at the end of January, to do what? So whether they believe it or not, I expect to be told "LC is happening but we have a Plan B", end of.

deiseindublin · 24-01-2021 09:33PM

Mrsmum wrote: »

Edit- I'm a bit unclear in your post, are you saying in your opinion, cg are the most likely option now ?

I'm not really making a call on CG or not, but I'd say they are more likely than exams.

I'm really saying LC kids can't win, if they go in, they're bringing CV home, if they don't go in, they're missing out on material for an exam, or teacher downgrading due to lack of engagement. No good choices, just various versions of sh*t ones.

jimmytwotimes 2013 · 24-01-2021 09:37PM

deiseindublin wrote: »

I'm not really making a call on CG or not, but I'd say they are more likely than exams.

I'm really saying LC kids can't win, if they go in, they're bringing CV home, if they don't go in, they're missing out on material for an exam, or teacher downgrading due to lack of engagement. No good choices, just various versions of sh*t ones.

Weren't we told not to take engagement online into consideration for CG? Lack of engagement may not have been student's fault was logic I think

C__MC · 24-01-2021 09:39PM

Bringing the mid term break would be logical but this government dosent do rational logic

Ideally given cases will drop in the next two weeks, 3rd and 6th years could be back in Mid Feb if not only 6th years

I really hope the government dont meander about but rather give a decent logical plan that is workable

jimmytwotimes 2013 · 24-01-2021 09:44PM

C__MC wrote: »

I really hope the government dont meander about but rather give a decent logical plan that is workable

Zero faith in them

deiseindublin · 24-01-2021 09:44PM

jimmytwotimes 2013 wrote: »

Weren't we told not to take engagement online into consideration for CG? Lack of engagement may not have been student's fault was logic I think

Yes, but if child A turns up every day when an equally adept Child B doesn't, I think 9 times out of 10 Child A will be given a higher PG from their teacher, even from a social point of view.

Now, it's anybody's guess how PGs and CGs correlate.

rainbowtrout · 24-01-2021 09:49PM

Locotastic wrote: »

The government don't like teachers??

Is it not the profession to be found in high numbers across our government throughout the years?

In fact wasn't MM a teacher early on and Enda Kenny too.

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/tds-as-teachers-5008126-Feb2020/

Consistently been the largest professional background for TDs and senators apparently.

Lots of teachers in government does not mean they treat the profession well.

rainbowtrout · 24-01-2021 09:50PM

jimmytwotimes 2013 wrote: »

Weren't we told not to take engagement online into consideration for CG? Lack of engagement may not have been student's fault was logic I think

Ya, it was basically what they had done up to March 12th.

wirelessdude01 · 24-01-2021 09:55PM

Mrsmum wrote: »

It's all a bit weird. The Government were always the ones pushing for schools to be open but now they seem to be the only ones talking about St Patrick's Day or even Easter, at a time when cases are speeding downwards. Do they know something we don't ??

I said this last week. I suspect that there is something that the government are aware of such is the sudden about turn in relation to schools and the pushing out of the dates that the journalists are being briefed off the record.

jimmytwotimes 2013 · 24-01-2021 10:00PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

I said this last week. I suspect that there is something that the government are aware of such is the sudden about turn in relation to schools and the pushing out of the dates that the journalists are being briefed off the record.

Something on infection rates with new varients is my guess

am_zarathustra · 24-01-2021 10:07PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

I said this last week. I suspect that there is something that the government are aware of such is the sudden about turn in relation to schools and the pushing out of the dates that the journalists are being briefed off the record.

More information on the mortality rates of the new british strain? They would have more info than they are letting I currently with the percentage they sequence so it wouldn't / shouldn't bee just the information released this week.

I wonder is there more info on either of the other strains? Maybe even outside of mortality, maybe more people need ventilation or extraordinary measures, that could be problematic. It does feel like a piece of the puzzle is missing but maybe the government really is this disconnected and shambolic

Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

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Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) Mod warning in OP 22/01