Schools closed until March/April? (part 4) **Mod warning in OP 22/01**

Sanjuro

am_zarathustra wrote: »

More information on the mortality rates of the new british strain? They would have more info than they are letting I currently with the percentage they sequence so it wouldn't / shouldn't bee just the information released this week.

I wonder is there more info on either of the other strains? Maybe even outside of mortality, maybe more people need ventilation or extraordinary measures, that could be problematic. It does feel like a piece of the puzzle is missing but maybe the government really is this disconnected and shambolic

Occam's Razor.

am_zarathustra

Sanjuro wrote: »

Occam's Razor.

:pac::D

Bananaleaf

It was reported by RTE that Paul Reid said those who are in ICU are needing to stay longer than before. I wonder if those are related to new variants and if so, does that mean that as well as them being more transmissible that they are also more aggressive. Does anyone know?

am_zarathustra

Bananaleaf wrote: »

It was reported by RTE that Paul Reid said those who are in ICU are needing to stay longer than before. I wonder if those are related to new variants and if so, does that mean that as well as them being more transmissible that they are also more aggressive. Does anyone know?

Hard to know, theres nothing solid I've seen so far on this but it'd be another few weeks before you'd have enough data.

Given the mutation allows better binding you'd imagine viral count will be higher, faster....that might lead to increased severity but immune systems don't always respond the way we think to viruses, much less predictable than bacteria. They may may have preliminary, unpublished results in britain, I'm sure they would privately share these with other countries in advance

Bananaleaf

am_zarathustra wrote: »

Hard to know, theres nothing solid I've seen so far on this but it'd be another few weeks before you'd have enough data.

Given the mutation allows better binding you'd imagine viral count will be higher, faster....that might lead to increased severity but immune systems don't always respond the way we think to viruses, much less predictable than bacteria. They may may have preliminary, unpublished results in britain, I'm sure they would privately share these with other countries in advance

Might explain the sudden decision by MM re: Paddy's day.

Wow. You know, I remember Coronavirus thread 1. I listened up on this from day 1, back when the whole thing was considered a conspiracy theroy in itself. I knew it had the potential to be bad and believed very early on in Feb 2020 that it would close the schools alright.

But never, ever did I believe for a single moment that we would still be dealing with this in Feb 2021. I thought the 'new normal' was a stupid phrase. This would never become normal. Not by any stretch. Yet here we are, in our new normal.

Before the break at Christmas I had to supervise a class for 5mins for a colleague. They were all working away so I just had to stand there. I stood there in the classroom and it must have been because I had nothing else to do but look, but for the first time since going back it dawned on me how changed everything had become. I was staring at these children. In masks. I almost burst into tears - not because I was sad, but just because of the emotional tension I've been carrying this whole time.

Made me think ... I know people are struggling mentally with it all now, but I wonder what we're all going to be like when we are out the other side and we actually have the time to stop and process it all.

Murple

Locotastic wrote: »

The government don't like teachers??

Is it not the profession to be found in high numbers across our government throughout the years?

In fact wasn't MM a teacher early on and Enda Kenny too.

https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/tds-as-teachers-5008126-Feb2020/

Consistently been the largest professional background for TDs and senators apparently.

MM taught for one year. Enda Kenny taught for 4.
Hardly stellar teaching careers.

KrustyUCC

Nope but Martins wife is a teacher as well

Once a teacher always a teacher

TTLF

Mrsmum wrote: »

It's all a bit weird. The Government were always the ones pushing for schools to be open but now they seem to be the only ones talking about St Patrick's Day or even Easter, at a time when cases are speeding downwards. Do they know something we don't ??

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

I said this last week. I suspect that there is something that the government are aware of such is the sudden about turn in relation to schools and the pushing out of the dates that the journalists are being briefed off the record.

If we look at the timeline last week regarding MM statement about March return, the day before or the same day (not too sure) the news reported that "MM and Boris would meet to discuss the new B117 variant which has overtaken the UK/Ire in the recent weeks. "

We've seen how the UK are miles ahead of knowing more about this strain than Ireland, so something in that discussion must've been said to MM to make him say that schools statement the next day, something we currently do not know is my guess.

I mean it would make sense, Bojo and MM go for a discussion on the new variant, lockdown in NI extended and rumours ours could last well into March, and then the school announcement that they wont be returning Feb 1st (very likely) nor will schools fully reopen by St.Patricks day.

As for when society reopens in an October scenario (schools open only) who's to say the new variant won't cause cases to rise quicker in hotspots. Schools whilst being controlled environments, aren't safer than any other part of the country/society. The new variant is more transmissible as it seems as of right now, not going to comment on it being "worse/more deadly" because that's something I'm not education on, or have any clue to it being true. But if the case were that it's worse off for adults (me being 18,) doesn't it seem unfair I have to put myself at a risk and have 90+ close contacts in school with the new variant considering I have an underlying health condition?

And for the record, social distancing most certainly is not taking place in my school, it's too small to do properly, they're trying their best but lunch times and break, playing basketball before afterschool study and PE have 0 social distancing, even some assembly's don't.

As they say, "It's harder to open a school than close one."

Qwertyminger

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Once a teacher always a teacher

You're possibly thinking of a dickhead.

In the case of that individual.

purifol0

Murple wrote: »

MM taught for one year. Enda Kenny taught for 4.
Hardly stellar teaching careers.

And yet Enda Kenny gets to claim a teachers pension on top of his other one!


Teachers in this country have it made.

Stateofyou

am_zarathustra wrote: »

This is a numbers game too. The molecular clock will basically tick for every single single viral particle out there. It's not a coincidence these varients have appeared in areas where numbers were out of control, like Brazil and SA. Keeping numbers down makes varients less likely, while the vaccination program will take the number of viral particles circulating down reducing and eventually, hopefully, eliminating the chance of mutation.

So far the mutations are minor enough though, bind effeiciancy changes are normal enough, more like people with different colour hair than different species. Hard to know exactly how much a proofreading virus will alter by at this level in the worldwide community but probably best we don't find out.

Not sure of the next few pages in discussion as I'm catching up, but was just after seeing that now CA has discovered a monster of a new variant, which caused their hospitals there to effectively collapse. It may be too mutated to be effective with previous antibodies/vaccines...the standard 'more reasearch needed' end to the article.

Spanish Eyes

Murple wrote: »

MM taught for one year. Enda Kenny taught for 4.
Hardly stellar teaching careers.

I read somewhere that many teachers stand for election because they can keep their Jobs open in the event that they lose their seats at any point. And they can continue paying into the pension scheme while in Office. I don’t know if that is still true, but someone might confirm or deny.

I’m obviously not a teacher, but did teach/train adults in a former life, which is a whole other ballgame!

Loafing Oaf

Qwertyminger wrote: »

You're possibly thinking of a dickhead.

In the case of that individual.

Darwin

Bananaleaf wrote: »

It was reported by RTE that Paul Reid said those who are in ICU are needing to stay longer than before. I wonder if those are related to new variants and if so, does that mean that as well as them being more transmissible that they are also more aggressive. Does anyone know?

It was reported on Channel 4 news during the week that the new UK variant has resulted in an increase in mortality rates of between 30 and 40 per cent.

am_zarathustra

Stateofyou wrote: »

Not sure of the next few pages in discussion as I'm catching up, but was just after seeing that now CA has discovered a monster of a new variant, which caused their hospitals there to effectively collapse. It may be too mutated to be effective with previous antibodies/vaccines...the standard 'more reasearch needed' end to the article.

The only saving grace of all this is we finally put the money needed to get mRna vaccines over the line, that technology has been knocking about a few years but the money just wasn't there. With those vaccines, so th biotech/pfizer you are just slotting a code into the receptor, any code really. If this vaccine doesn't work, sequence the varient (already done), isolate the target protein (a day or two), transform into the receptor and stabilise (few weeks). Biontech said about 6 weeks total to make a new vaccine basically. Ideally we don't want this, borders should be shut really. Keep varients where they are in the hopes that if any are resistant, two vaccines would only be necessary in small regions.

am_zarathustra

Darwin wrote: »

It was reported on Channel 4 news during the week that the new UK variant has resulted in an increase in mortality rates of between 30 and 40 per cent.

This was a small sample group. Odd in itself as they have more data......,

Bananaleaf

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Nope but Martins wife is a teacher as well

Once a teacher always a teacher

Ivan Yeats' wife is a teacher too and it didn't stop him sharpening his pitchfork every afternoon before he went on air

jimmytwotimes 2013

Bananaleaf wrote: »

Ivan Yeats' wife is a teacher too and it didn't stop him sharpening his pitchfork every afternoon before he went on air

They say whatever gets ratings

Claire Byrne was the same on Newstalk, slaughter the public sector during last crash but runs to RTÉ for the guaranteed gig and pension

wirelessdude01

Stateofyou wrote: »

Not sure of the next few pages in discussion as I'm catching up, but was just after seeing that now CA has discovered a monster of a new variant, which caused their hospitals there to effectively collapse. It may be too mutated to be effective with previous antibodies/vaccines...the standard 'more reasearch needed' end to the article.

California?

Bananaleaf

TTLF wrote: »

And for the record, social distancing most certainly is not taking place in my school, it's too small to do properly, they're trying their best but lunch times and break, playing basketball before afterschool study and PE have 0 social distancing, even some assembly's don't.

TTLF can I ask you a question?

As an adult who will be required to attend school if and when they do open, you, like us teachers, will have to attend.

However, unlike us teachers, you are not seated at a 2m distance from the others in class. You will have someone 1.1m to your left, your right, in front and behind you.

Unlike us teachers, you probably do not have the luxury of going to your car to have a socially distanced break and lunch.

And unlike us teachers, who have breaks in our teaching day, you are required to be within 1.1m of 4 other people ALL day and not necessarily the same 4 people when option classes are taken into consideration

How do you feel about that?

Also can I ask, have you found yourself in a position where someone who sits near you has been either diagnosed with C19 or been told they are a close contact. If so, how did that make you feel? If not, is it something that would bother you?

Thanks

Stateofyou

am_zarathustra wrote: »

The only saving grace of all this is we finally put the money needed to get mRna vaccines over the line, that technology has been knocking about a few years but the money just wasn't there. With those vaccines, so th biotech/pfizer you are just slotting a code into the receptor, any code really. If this vaccine doesn't work, sequence the varient (already done), isolate the target protein (a day or two), transform into the receptor and stabilise (few weeks). Biontech said about 6 weeks total to make a new vaccine basically. Ideally we don't want this, borders should be shut really. Keep varients where they are in the hopes that if any are resistant, two vaccines would only be necessary in small regions.

Sounds good, going to have to take your word for all that :pac:

What will they do about borders in the US states I wonder!

Stateofyou

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

California?

Yeah, sorry - have close family there years and very used to writing CA on all mail/packages/sending the address on to anyone looking :pac:

rainbowtrout

purifol0 wrote: »

And yet Enda Kenny gets to claim a teachers pension on top of his other one!


Teachers in this country have it made.

That day is gone, and he could only claim the pension if he continued to pay into it as a TD.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I read somewhere that many teachers stand for election because they can keep their Jobs open in the event that they lose their seats at any point. And they can continue paying into the pension scheme while in Office. I don’t know if that is still true, but someone might confirm or deny.

I’m obviously not a teacher, but did teach/train adults in a former life, which is a whole other ballgame!

That day is gone. A teacher can take a career break for up to 5 years but after that they either have to resign the job or return to the classroom. That applies whether they run for election, or head off travelling around the world.

Murple

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Nope but Martins wife is a teacher as well

Once a teacher always a teacher

And this time last year, Norma Foley was a teacher... yeah that has really worked in our favour.

Locotastic

rainbowtrout wrote: »

Lots of teachers in government does not mean they treat the profession well.

You'd think the opposite would be the case given that it's the most well-represented profession in our government.

Bananaleaf

Locotastic wrote: »

You'd think the opposite would be the case given that it's the most well-represented profession in our government.

You would. But, another way of looking at it is, what regard would you expect anyone to have for a job that they couldn't wait to get out of themselves?

Stateofyou

Norma did say she picked sides, didn't she? It came across badly if you ask me, as she has a duty to all in the education sector.

deiseindublin

It will be interesting to see if she's still on their side when it comes to paying for assessments, July provision, resources, equipment.....

I'd say talk is cheap.

TTLF

Bananaleaf wrote: »

TTLF can I ask you a question?

As an adult who will be required to attend school if and when they do open, you, like us teachers, will have to attend.

However, unlike us teachers, you are not seated at a 2m distance from the others in class. You will have someone 1.1m to your left, your right, in front and behind you.

Unlike us teachers, you probably do not have the luxury of going to your car to have a socially distanced break and lunch.

And unlike us teachers, who have breaks in our teaching day, you are required to be within 1.1m of 4 other people ALL day and not necessarily the same 4 people when option classes are taken into consideration

How do you feel about that?

Also can I ask, have you found yourself in a position where someone who sits near you has been either diagnosed with C19 or been told they are a close contact. If so, how did that make you feel? If not, is it something that would bother you?

Thanks

Initially, when C19 suppressed during the summer, I didn't think too much about anything, transmission was low, cases were low, I was able to go out and interact with people, I had to be more aware and cautious because of my heart condition, (Hypo plastic left heart syndrome if u wanna look it up out of curiosity :pac:) When school started, sure I have my doubts, curiosities, stresses, "is it safe me ME?" "Will I be okay?" and the answers never really felt clear. My school is smaller than most, 500 pupils total, currently my year is the biggest to go through the school at about 84 students, so you can imagine that's 20 surplus the usual class in a smaller built school. I'm not sure why we had more people, back when I started in 2015, but whatever not important. School has been relatively safe here for me, 3 cases in my school and thankfully none of them were in my year, as time goes on you come to realize you forget the virus existed, we have a 6th year "bridge" which is like our common room, fully packed with people chatting in the morning, evening and lunches, we need social interaction, we have classrooms but they're not fully used unless its big break. Then on-top of your comment about classrooms I'm in an additional classroom after school 4/5 times a week for afterschool studying for 2 1/2 hours. I have 9 classes a day, 40 mins each. So I'm roughly in a classroom for 6 hours out of the day, then add study, 8 1/2 with a total 40 min break in school, 30 after and 15 in between study.

I think it's safe to say, I have many, many many contacts. Do I feel okay with that? When school started, no way. Then over time, since nothing happened I just became more at ease, but that was then and this is now. Would I want to go back in as of right now? No. Online school sucks, but when there's a newer worse transmittable variant I have to really shelter myself. I haven't seen any of my friends faces (besides live class) since December. I refuse to see my GF because we both know it's too risky, I probably won't see her until late March or even April as it stands.


"Also can I ask, have you found yourself in a position where someone who sits near you has been either diagnosed with C19 or been told they are a close contact."

At this point, I've lost count how many times I've been a "close contact of a close contact." My neighbour had C19, I'm friends with his sister, then my friends brother got C19, some pupils in my year's family's got C19, sometimes even teachers have been out with suspected C19. My best friends mother had to be tested. Back in term 1 I was scared when that was in the back of my mind, I've never been tested and thankfully I'm not an immediate close contact so far, but if the B117 variant is a huge issue, what makes it safe for me to go in, but not my friend in college who's only 4 months older than me?

Even if schools have better cleaning techniques, or better control on the virus, 500 people in pupils alone in Dublin + Teachers/SNA's/Cleaners + more in a building the size of 2 long hallways and a Gym doesn't bode well. :pac:

Being a close contact of a close contact bothers me very much yes, I have enough health issues and hospitalisations to deal with. I'm very thankfully strong for someone with my condition, but I don't need scarring from C19 to make matters worse.

Also my friend currently has C19 as we speak but he seems to be okay. Shame too, I needed to pick up my new film camera I bought off him from his house to use over lockdown but I guess that's out the window until we return, whenever that is. :P

Tpcl20

Josepha Madigan took down the repost of Ciara Kelly's article.

That's the second time she's had to remove a very incendiary article she obviously hadn't read. Remember she shared another awful piece back before Christmas and had to take that down as well, can anyone recall what it was.

She's a live wire. By which I mean she's absolutely shocking, will probably end up killing people and should be permanently grounded.