Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

mrunsure · 24-01-2021 6:30pm

sondagefaux wrote: »

So these British pensioners are going to rent instead of buying?

If they use the money from selling a house in the UK to buy a house in Spain, that reduces their lump sum.

€32,000 per year over 5 years requires a lump sum of €160,000.

After that's used up, what are the requirements to gain permanent residency for non-EEA nationals?

As I said in my first post on this topic, only wealthier British pensioners will be able to retire to Spain from now on.

Certainly if they are on a budget renting would be advisable in the beginning. However it is not compulsory to spend the whole €32,000 each year. They just have to ensure that they have that amount (or whatever that has increased to in the following year) when they apply for the visa renewal. After the first year it only needs to be renewed every two years.

I would agree that moving to Spain is no longer available to the poorest Brits, but you don't necessarily have to be particularly wealthy. I would say the biggest impediment is to have health insurance with no co-payments, meaning that someone with pre-existing conditions may not be able to get insurance, no matter how wealthy you are. Such people would be advised to move to Ireland to acquire Irish nationality first.

I haven't seen any income requirements for permanent residency once you have been there for 5 years.

Seth Brundle · 24-01-2021 6:43pm

Seems the MD of Cheshire Cheese, Simon Spurrell, will be speaking to James O'Brien on his show tomorrow. I wonder will other food products become more vocal as a result. If not, I'd like to hear their thoughts on Simon's claim that "food producers in the UK cannot commercially afford to sell direct to the EU consumers"

https://twitter.com/SimonJSpurrell/status/1352996171392946176?s=19

https://twitter.com/SimonJSpurrell/status/1353012741401796608?s=19

prawnsambo · 24-01-2021 7:49pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Seems the MD of Cheshire Cheese, Simon Spurrell, will be speaking to James O'Brien on his show tomorrow. I wonder will other food products become more vocal as a result. If not, I'd like to hear their thoughts on Simon's claim that "food producers in the UK cannot commercially afford to sell direct to the EU consumers"

https://twitter.com/SimonJSpurrell/status/1352996171392946176?s=19

https://twitter.com/SimonJSpurrell/status/1353012741401796608?s=19

Isn't it the requirement for an SPS certificate for every consignment? So for every single EU customer who orders a block or two of cheese, there's an overhead that's probably significantly more than the cost of the product. If he sets up a warehouse/operation in (say) Ireland and ships large consignments to it for direct sale to EU states, the cost per item is considerably lower.

mrunsure · 24-01-2021 7:59pm

Is there some hope that the agreement will be changed to help such exporters?

There was some controversy about small retailers stopping shipping to the UK because of the new VAT system. But looking at this

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/norway-import-tax/

Norway introduced something similar last year. How is this different to the new UK system? Dutchbikebits.com still ship to Norway.

sondagefaux · 24-01-2021 8:03pm

mrunsure wrote: »

Certainly if they are on a budget renting would be advisable in the beginning. However it is not compulsory to spend the whole €32,000 each year. They just have to ensure that they have that amount (or whatever that has increased to in the following year) when they apply for the visa renewal. After the first year it only needs to be renewed every two years.

I would agree that moving to Spain is no longer available to the poorest Brits, but you don't necessarily have to be particularly wealthy. I would say the biggest impediment is to have health insurance with no co-payments, meaning that someone with pre-existing conditions may not be able to get insurance, no matter how wealthy you are. Such people would be advised to move to Ireland to acquire Irish nationality first.

I haven't seen any income requirements for permanent residency once you have been there for 5 years.

Five years in Ireland before you can apply for citizenship (3 years if married to an Irish citizen), plus a wait of six months to see if your application has been successful or not, with all the costs of living in Ireland, plus the costs of applying for naturalised citizenship (which can be withdrawn if you don't reside in the state for a sufficient period), plus the costs of moving from Britain to Ireland and then to Spain leads me to think your definition of "not particularly wealthy" and mine are very different...

I haven't seen any income requirements for permanent residency once you have been there for 5 years.

You have to provide evidence of health insurance and proof of adequate means.

https://torreviejatranslation.com/ultimate-guide-spanish-residency/

sondagefaux · 24-01-2021 8:05pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Isn't it the requirement for an SPS certificate for every consignment? So for every single EU customer who orders a block or two of cheese, there's an overhead that's probably significantly more than the cost of the product. If he sets up a warehouse/operation in (say) Ireland and ships large consignments to it for direct sale to EU states, the cost per item is considerably lower.

Precisely. The cost of the Export Health Certificate is the same whether it's issued for a consignment worth £25 or £25,000.

Nody · 24-01-2021 8:08pm

mrunsure wrote: »

Is there some hope that the agreement will be changed to help such exporters?

Sure if the Tories decides to align with EU regulation going forward; i.e. snowball chance in hell kind of thing.

There was some controversy about small retailers stopping shipping to the UK because of the new VAT system. But looking at this

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/norway-import-tax/

Norway introduced something similar last year. How is this different to the new UK system? Dutchbikebits.com still ship to Norway.

A) They most likely don't charge you for the pleasure of paying or reporting the tax (or require a specialist to do so) and

it's only for orders beyond 3000 NOK (290 EUR).

mrunsure · 24-01-2021 8:10pm

sondagefaux wrote: »

Five years in Ireland before you can apply for citizenship (3 years if married to an Irish citizen), plus a wait of six months to see if your application has been successful or not, with all the costs of living in Ireland, plus the costs of applying for naturalised citizenship (which can be withdrawn if you don't reside in the state for a sufficient period), plus the costs of moving from Britain to Ireland and then to Spain leads me to think your definition of "not particularly wealthy" and mine are very different...

Just to clarify, I was talking about someone who doesn't qualify for the visa because of pre-existing health conditions but who can nevertheless afford to move to Ireland.

Someone in that position is in a bit of a pickle, and their only option is to move to Ireland first. As you rightly point out, that requires money and time.

sondagefaux wrote: »

You have to provide evidence of health insurance and proof of adequate means.

https://torreviejatranslation.com/ultimate-guide-spanish-residency/

That page seems to describe the procedure for new residents, not those who are ready to apply for permanent residency after five years in Spain.

Seth Brundle · 24-01-2021 8:11pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Isn't it the requirement for an SPS certificate for every consignment? So for every single EU customer who orders a block or two of cheese, there's an overhead that's probably significantly more than the cost of the product. If he sets up a warehouse/operation in (say) Ireland and ships large consignments to it for direct sale to EU states, the cost per item is considerably lower.

Unless there is a company within the EU that can take customer orders and send out the product, then this isn't much of an option to small businesses.

mrunsure wrote: »

Is there some hope that the agreement will be changed to help such exporters?

Id say that there's not a hope.
The British government got what they wanted and the EU are unlikely to reopen discussions a month into the agreement.

Capt'n Midnight · 24-01-2021 8:16pm

mrunsure wrote: »

Is there some hope that the agreement will be changed to help such exporters?

There was some controversy about small retailers stopping shipping to the UK because of the new VAT system. But looking at this

https://www.lifeinnorway.net/norway-import-tax/

Norway introduced something similar last year. How is this different to the new UK system? Dutchbikebits.com still ship to Norway.

It's similar to the EU scheme that will come in later this year. Threshold for Norway looks like 50,000.00 Norwegian Kroner = 4,838.81 Euros

A simplified scheme, called VOEC (VAT On E-Commerce), will be established for sellers and online marketplaces that sell goods to Norwegian consumers. The VOEC scheme will be only for VAT, and only for goods with value less than NOK 3,000.

The key difference between the UK and the other European schemes is that for overseas sellers to the UK there is no threshold for VAT registration.

looksee · 24-01-2021 8:29pm

mrunsure wrote: »

So maybe someone approaching retirement can move to Ireland, get some kind of job, any job, leave that job after a few months then claim the Irish state pension? Could he even then move back to the UK if he wished and continue to get the Irish state pension whilst taking advantage of the lower cost of living in the UK?

In order to keep a state pension (non-contributory) you have to be resident in the state.

Capt'n Midnight · 24-01-2021 8:49pm

mrunsure wrote: »

Is there some hope that the agreement will be changed to help such exporters?

And what would the UK offer in return ?

The UK has a lower threshold in the opposite direction and didn't allow a delay because of Covid. So the UK has a lot of distance to move before it even begins to look like a level playing field.

The EU and UK are constricted by the Most Favoured Nation WTO clause.
And neither want to open their markets to third parties, and neither want to reopen negotiations. Especially since the EU hasn't ratified the agreement yet.

Bear in mind that the whole Brexit process is going from a position where the UK had equal access but at every stage swapped access for Sovereignty. But as usual in trade deals the bigger more powerful side gets the better part of the deal. Every round, every renegotiation will be on average slightly in favour to the EU.

And it's not just this matter, for example the UK were offered the visa for musicians on a quid pro quo but rejected it. I'd be shocked if new examples didn't keep popping up. There's the story of the kid on cannabis oil as a painkiller. EU rules meant he could get it on a Dutch prescription but can't now.

Turkey is not completely in the Customs Union but the UK rejected that option. Brexit from the UK side is either they didn't know or didn't care. Neither is excusable.

Reminder of Barniers Staircase Diagram.
PDF https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf

Slide presented by Michel Barnier, European Commission Chief
Negotiator, to the Heads of State and Government at the
European Council (Article 50) on 15 December 2017

mrunsure · 24-01-2021 9:02pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

And it's not just this matter, for example the UK were offered the visa for musicians on a quid pro quo but rejected it. I'd be shocked if new examples didn't keep popping up. There's the story of the kid on cannabis oil as a painkiller. EU rules meant he could get it on a Dutch prescription but can't now.

I saw the musicians visa issue but not the cannabis oil situation. I've just read up on that. That is unbelievable. Would moving to Ireland, at least temporarily, help in this situation? I would have thought it would be possible to crowdfund the expenses required for such a worthy cause for those who are unable to afford it.

sondagefaux · 24-01-2021 10:42pm

mrunsure wrote: »

Just to clarify, I was talking about someone who doesn't qualify for the visa because of pre-existing health conditions but who can nevertheless afford to move to Ireland.

Someone in that position is in a bit of a pickle, and their only option is to move to Ireland first. As you rightly point out, that requires money and time.

That page seems to describe the procedure for new residents, not those who are ready to apply for permanent residency after five years in Spain.

Read to the end of the page.

sondagefaux · 24-01-2021 10:57pm

Another blow to online sales.

Under EU rules, people in the UK who purchased from the rest of the EU had the transaction charges for the sellers (card merchants fees) capped.

Now Mastercard is upping its fees from 0.2% to 1.15% (debit cards) or 0.3% to 1.5% (credit cards) of the transaction value for online sales.

If companies in the EEA selling to UK customers online don't absorb these fees, they'll be passed on to consumers.

Just another little niggle to add to the pile.

PS: the rates of 1.15% and 1.5% for debit/credit card online transactions is capped for Mastercard and Visa products because of pressure from the EU. These caps expire in 5.5 years from the date that Mastercard and Visa set with the Commission's approval.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_19_2311

sondagefaux · 24-01-2021 11:01pm

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Seems the MD of Cheshire Cheese, Simon Spurrell, will be speaking to James O'Brien on his show tomorrow. I wonder will other food products become more vocal as a result. If not, I'd like to hear their thoughts on Simon's claim that "food producers in the UK cannot commercially afford to sell direct to the EU consumers"

https://twitter.com/SimonJSpurrell/status/1352996171392946176?s=19

https://twitter.com/SimonJSpurrell/status/1353012741401796608?s=19

If the foodstuff requires an Export Health Certificate or a Phytosanitary Certificate, the answer is 'Yes, you cannot sell to individual consumers in the EU from Britain and make a profit'.

embraer170 · 24-01-2021 11:18pm

sondagefaux wrote: »

If the foodstuff requires an Export Health Certificate or a Phytosanitary Certificate, the answer is 'Yes, you cannot sell to individual consumers in the EU from Britain and make a profit'.

You can sell from Britain as long as you have a distribution hub in the EU. With the latest card fees story, your online payments system better be in the EU too.

I expect we’ll be seeing a lot more do this over the coming months, with business small and large quietly moving investments outside the UK.

sondagefaux · 25-01-2021 12:06am

embraer170 wrote: »

You can sell from Britain as long as you have a distribution hub in the EU. With the latest card fees story, your online payments system better be in the EU too.

I expect we’ll be seeing a lot more do this over the coming months, with business small and large quietly moving investments outside the UK.

It's a two-way hit to trade. This 'card merchants' transaction fee increase will affect sellers in the UK and sellers in the EU, as will all the other difficulties, by 1st July at the latest when the UK starts fully implementing its SPS rules, and the new EU VAT rules for online sales begin.

Given the comparative sizes of the two markets, the UK will be hit worse than the EU.

listermint · 25-01-2021 12:06am

The wheels are falling off you'd have to believe . It's literally all coming to bear after the first month. I had thought once supplies start dwindling into February things would start to blow up and it's just successive bad news stories every week since January settled in.

Strazdas · 25-01-2021 1:08am

listermint wrote: »

The wheels are falling off you'd have to believe . It's literally all coming to bear after the first month. I had thought once supplies start dwindling into February things would start to blow up and it's just successive bad news stories every week since January settled in.

I would factor in that this is a genuinely terrible government which seems to hate business. It's a perfect storm - a disastrous idea (hard Brexit) coupled with a really bad / incompetent government.

Capt'n Midnight · 25-01-2021 1:16am

sondagefaux wrote: »

Another blow to online sales.

Under EU rules, people in the UK who purchased from the rest of the EU had the transaction charges for the sellers (card merchants fees) capped.

Now Mastercard is upping its fees from 0.2% to 1.15% (debit cards) or 0.3% to 1.5% (credit cards) of the transaction value for online sales.

But the UK is a strong independent country who don't need no EU ?

Next you'll be telling me the UK won't benefit from new EU consumer protections. Little costs but they add up over time.

Valve, owner of online PC gaming platform Steam, and five other publishers have been fined a total of €7.8m (£6.9m) for restricting cross-border sales of PC video games.

It's another one of the costs of Brexit

But hey, blue passports !

sondagefaux · 25-01-2021 1:18am

Forman & Field, the food company associated with Lance Forman, Brexit campaigner and former Brexit Party MEP, no longer delivers to the EU or Northern Ireland. I guess he's really committed to leaving the EU...

DELIVERY AREAS – SERVICES AVAILABLE
PLEASE NOTE: Deliveries to the E.U. and Northern Ireland are now on hold until further notice. Please contact us at info@formanandfield.com for further information.

https://www.formanandfield.com/about-us/delivery-areas-shipping-zones-and-surcharges/

Rain Ascending · 25-01-2021 3:05am

Enzokk wrote: »

So the current advice for companies struggling with red tape is to set up a new company within the EU.

Set up shop in Europe, government advisers tell Brexit-hit businesses

I feel sorry for those that will lose their job to colleagues in EU countries, but they had a chance to rule out this scenario and they still voted for it in 2019.

This particular article highlights the unresolved tension between the politics of Brexit and the business reality.

Clearly the advice given by the DIT officials was the correct one -- as others have pointed out in this thread, it's better that businesses survive, even if they have to shift investment from the UK to the EU.

The politics that Brexit has to be good in all dimensions, keep getting in the way. From the article in the Guardian, we have this gem:

The spokesperson from the Department for International Trade said: “This is not government policy, the Cabinet Office have issued clear guidance, available at gov.uk/transition, and we encourage all businesses to follow that guidance. We are ensuring all officials are properly conveying this information.”

I've poked around on that site, and sure enough, there is nothing that I can find on when a business should establish a presence within the EU or how to do it.

Contrast that with Enterprise Ireland's approach in the opposite direction. Some Irish SMEs face very similar problems selling into the GB market and need a presence there. (Indeed some Irish companies have already set up subsidiaries in the UK as a result of the Brexit vote.) And Enterprise Ireland? They've run a seminar on the topic with follow-up free (albeit short) consultation sessions for their clients!

So when reports emerge of Irish businesses having higher levels of awareness and preparedness for the "new" border arrangements with GB, as compared to their GB counterparts, it's not hard to see why. The contrast between the ideological trap the UK government finds itself in and the hard-nosed pragmatism of the Irish state is stark.

reslfj · 25-01-2021 4:19am

looksee wrote: »

In order to keep a state pension (non-contributory) you have to be resident in the state.

Not within the EU (and EEA/CH too, I think), you - as an EU/EEA/CH citizen - don't. As long as you stay within the EU or EEA/CH, the state, where you lived while working, will have to pay out your full pension (EU/SM rule)

Taxation is governed by non-EU bilateral double taxation agreements between the state where you qualified for state pension or saved for extra pension with tax incentives, and the state where you live as a pensioner.

State pensions, tax deferred pension savings often paid as annuities will by the DTA often be taxed in the country where you lived while working - but this must be checked for every relevant DTA.

E.G. Here in Denmark you will get 100% state pension, if you have lived here in 40 years between the age of 15 and state pension age - currently 67 years.
Otherwise you will receive a proportional reduced pension.
But then you will likely have a kind of state pension from the state where you lived. for the missing years.

Lars

mrunsure · 25-01-2021 9:13am

sondagefaux wrote: »

Read to the end of the page.

You'll have to show me. I have looked and looked but can't find it.

Liberalbrehon · 25-01-2021 9:26am

The ERG never cared about damage to business. No cost was too high to get out of the European court of Justice. Watch them roll back workers rights etc over next few years. If there are any workers left. Britain will be worse than it was in the 1970's.
The cost of UK to re-enter the EU will be sterling. Given the economic damage to people I don't think they will care, but the earliest that could happen will be 5 years. In the meantime, UK will slip down the pecking order, possibly out of the G7? Is that possible? If GDP falls enough I guess it could or they will be number 7 in that list.

breezy1985 · 25-01-2021 9:50am

Liberalbrehon wrote: »

The ERG never cared about damage to business. No cost was too high to get out of the European court of Justice. Watch them roll back workers rights etc over next few years. If there are any workers left. Britain will be worse than it was in the 1970's.
The cost of UK to re-enter the EU will be sterling. Given the economic damage to people I don't think they will care, but the earliest that could happen will be 5 years. In the meantime, UK will slip down the pecking order, possibly out of the G7? Is that possible? If GDP falls enough I guess it could or they will be number 7 in that list.

Losing sterling will be a huge sell to English people no matter how poor they are or how devalued it is. They have a big thing about how it used to be the "world" currency

As for G7 if Italy managed to hang on it must be a pretty hard league to get relegated from

mrunsure · 25-01-2021 9:51am

Liberalbrehon wrote: »

The ERG never cared about damage to business. No cost was too high to get out of the European court of Justice. Watch them roll back workers rights etc over next few years. If there are any workers left. Britain will be worse than it was in the 1970's.
The cost of UK to re-enter the EU will be sterling. Given the economic damage to people I don't think they will care, but the earliest that could happen will be 5 years. In the meantime, UK will slip down the pecking order, possibly out of the G7? Is that possible? If GDP falls enough I guess it could or they will be number 7 in that list.

The G7 already includes countries outside the top 7 largest economies. Italy is eighth and Canada is ninth. The UK economy is currently about 40% larger than Canada's. (Per capita the UK is 21st according to the IMF). Conversely, China and India are in the top 7 but are not in the G7.

Eric Cartman · 25-01-2021 11:05am

Liberalbrehon wrote: »

The ERG never cared about damage to business. No cost was too high to get out of the European court of Justice. Watch them roll back workers rights etc over next few years. If there are any workers left. Britain will be worse than it was in the 1970's.
The cost of UK to re-enter the EU will be sterling. Given the economic damage to people I don't think they will care, but the earliest that could happen will be 5 years. In the meantime, UK will slip down the pecking order, possibly out of the G7? Is that possible? If GDP falls enough I guess it could or they will be number 7 in that list.

I doubt there'll be much erosion of workers rights at all. I especially don't recall the 70s as a particularly dark point in British workers rights ?

Ive noticed a lot of supply issues with fruit and veg already. Id imagine theres other things I'm not seeing but warehouse stocks have to be running low now so February will start seeing the actual logistic issues.

[Deleted User] · 25-01-2021 11:59am

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I doubt there'll be much erosion of workers rights at all. I especially don't recall the 70s as a particularly dark point in British workers rights ?

The 1970s a time of powerful unions not afraid to flex their muscles at any time and a Labour government that kept on giving, until they couldn't and brought in the IMF.
Set up the stage perfectly for the Thatcher revolution, which allowed all the jobs to go east!

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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