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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • I found this:



    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-facts/how-many-british-citizens-live-in-the-eu/

    Surely, the citizens of some other nation have more citizens in other EU countries than this?

    I suppose it's a mark of how farcical this whole project is that the government telling firms to set up in the EU is barely newsworthy.
    It's worth remembering that many of the UK born in Ireland are either second generation Irish from GB or are from NI, the number of English, Scots & Welsh who have no Irish ancestry is far smaller.
    Those in France & Spain are mostly retired and that they were retiring to those places long before the FOM came into being, so the earlier retirees had to apply for residency, so I would expect future retirees would have to do the same.
    It won't stop them going, unless the Spanish town don't want their money.




  • mrunsure wrote: »
    Where are the Irish living?

    Dunno. UK mostly I would imagine. Australia and the US would have large cohorts as well.




  • Dunno. UK mostly I would imagine. Australia and the US would have large cohorts as well.

    None of those concern EU free movement. There seem to be quite a few Irish in other EU countries on this thread. Are they exceptional?




  • mrunsure wrote: »
    None of those concern EU free movement. There seem to be quite a few Irish in other EU countries on this thread. Are they exceptional?

    Of course they are. They have learnt a foreign language - quite an achievement by Irish standards.




  • Irish here living in The Netherlands! Many of us here.


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  • Dunno how long this is free to read so read it soon :)

    https://www.ft.com/content/cc6b0d9a-d8cc-4ddb-8c57-726df018c10e

    If it doesn't come up as 'free' then google search "Inside the Brexit deal: the agreement and the aftermath" and it should be free then.
    It's a great read.

    I like the comments on such FT Brexit articles, as the handful of Leavers are at least able to articulate their position beyond WW2 and hating the French as per Mail/Express comments.




  • yer man! wrote: »
    Irish here living in The Netherlands! Many of us here.

    Seems to be quite a decent amount in Austria too, all things considered. There's even an Irish run cafe around the corner from us that do a proper curry chip, which was a great taste of home over the summer, before it all shut down again!




  • Seems to be quite a decent amount in Austria too, all things considered. There's even an Irish run cafe around the corner from us that do a proper curry chip, which was a great taste of home over the summer, before it all shut down again!

    I would love more irish run foodie places here. There's only british ones where I am which are grand but because of brexit they're all having to stock irish meat products instead of union jack laden packaging alternative so win for Ireland i guess.




  • yer man! wrote: »
    I would love more irish run foodie places here. There's only british ones where I am which are grand but because of brexit they're all having to stock irish meat products instead of union jack laden packaging alternative so win for Ireland i guess.

    I noticed the same, the British food shop in Vienna has begun to stock Barry's tea and a few other things (like Tayto's, on a very rare occassion). There has been a noticeable increase in Irish butter and cheese in regular supermarkets, usually Kerrygold itself, or Kerrygold rebadged in Germany. Also Irish beef and smoked salmon. Again, not huge amounts, but I do see to be noticing it more.

    What was noticeable is the decline in products from British companies in the supermarkets. There was never a large demand for them, but for example Sharwoods would have been the only way to get naan bread and poppadoms in regular supermarkets (obviously the Asian food shops are well stocked). The past couple of weeks all that semi-fresh kind of stuff has completely disappeared. I thought it was just me, but a few others from work noticed similar. It probably isn't worth importing for the relatively small number of consumers. When everything begins to reopen again I'm going to be very interested in whether the few shops that stock English language magazines maintain that part of the business. The magazines were always incredibly marked up (Empire magazine would be around 13 quid, whereas I think it's about 7/8 in Ireland?) and I would presume demand will disappear amongst the few people that bought them if there's any increase in price.




  • Actually I just remembered the last time Lidl here ran a "Best of British" special offer earlier this year-pretty much all the fresh meat was actually Irish now, crumbed ham and everything. It was great!


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  • I'd guess the advice to set up in the EU isn't official advice, probably just a functionary who'd heard enough sob stories about export issues and decided to tell the businesses how they could get around it.

    Presumably it would actually work for Cheshire Cheese Man.
    Instead of sending £50 boxes that each require a £180 cert, send a weekly/monthly truck with a £15K block of cheese that still only requires one £180 certificate to a warehouse in Hamlet-de-France. Then as foreign orders come in send the details to Hamlet-de-France every day and get them to break it down to smaller product for sending to the EU customers.

    I think it works. Albeit he suddenly doesn't need quite as many staff in the UK and is instead employing French people to do the cutting, wrapping and posting, and these employees pay income tax to the French revenue. And all the VAT would also be paid to the French revenue.

    That's literally what he's going to do, and similarly for some of the businesses in this article:
    Moss has moved fast, and in the past fortnight has settled on a two-part strategy. In the short term, to keep his customers happy, he will pay the VAT bills himself, writing big cheques every week. But as he can’t afford to do that for long, he has decided to establish his own company in the EU – Horizon Europe – in the Netherlands. He has identified a site and hopes it will be ready for use in six weeks. But he knows it will mean downsizing at home and laying people off.

    “If I have got to recruit two people in Holland, and let two people go here, that hurts,” he says. “I have been in touch with other companies in the last week that have exactly the same issues. It will be affecting thousands of companies.”

    Moss is, indeed, far from alone. Geoffrey Betts is managing director of Stewart Superior, a company in Marlow, Buckinghamshire, which deals in office supplies. He too has decided to set up a new company in the Netherlands, for the same reasons. “When the government said it had secured free trade it was obvious it was nothing of the sort,” says Betts.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/a-brexit-nightmare-the-british-businesses-being-pushed-to-breaking-point
    To save his business he will now have to switch a £1m investment he was planning to make in a new distribution centre in Macclesfield to the EU, with the loss of 20 jobs and tax revenue to the UK.

    “It is a real shame because that means I’m now going to invest in France, provide French employment, and then contribute to the EU tax system, which was pretty much going against the whole reason that we were meant to be leaving.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/cheshire-cheesemaker-says-business-left-with-250000-brexit-hole

    BTW, he voted Remain.




  • Of course they are. They have learnt a foreign language - quite an achievement by Irish standards.

    100% of Irish people speak a foreign language.




  • dolanbaker wrote: »
    It's worth remembering that many of the UK born in Ireland are either second generation Irish from GB or are from NI, the number of English, Scots & Welsh who have no Irish ancestry is far smaller.
    Those in France & Spain are mostly retired and that they were retiring to those places long before the FOM came into being, so the earlier retirees had to apply for residency, so I would expect future retirees would have to do the same.
    It won't stop them going, unless the Spanish town don't want their money.

    A British pensioner couple who want to retire to Spain will have to prove a combined pension income of about €32,000, a figure which increases annually, and is set by central government, not local town councils.

    In addition, they will have to show proof of health insurance and provide police records.

    Given the miserable nature of British state pensions, and given the percentage of British people who have criminal convictions, it's a safe bet that only wealthier Brits will be able to afford to retire to Spain from now on.
    The full basic State Pension is £134.25 per week. There are ways you can increase your State Pension up to or above the full amount. You may have to pay tax on your State Pension. To get information about your State Pension, contact the Pension Service.

    https://www.gov.uk/state-pension/what-youll-get
    There are over 11 million people with a criminal record.
    There are approximately 735,000 people with unspent convictions.

    33 per cent of males born in 1953 had been convicted in England and Wales by 2006 of at least one standard list offence before the age of 53 (Standard list offences include all indictable and triable-either-way offences and certain summary offences). Just over half of these had been convicted on only one occasion. 85% were convicted before they were 30 years old.

    9 per cent of females born in 1953 had been convicted of at least one standard list offence before the age of 53. Three-quarters of these had been convicted on only one occasion.

    https://www.unlock.org.uk/policy-issues/key-facts/

    See also: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44207104




  • Basically it is a fulfilment centre. He sends a truck over filed with his £25 boxes, and one cert, and the centre then sends them out as requested.

    He needn't even own the centre. It could be operated by a logistics company like Amazon.

    He will own it. And it will mean a £1 million investment creating 20 jobs will go to France instead of the UK.
    To save his business he will now have to switch a £1m investment he was planning to make in a new distribution centre in Macclesfield to the EU, with the loss of 20 jobs and tax revenue to the UK.

    ...

    Spurrell’s Cheshire cheese company in Macclesfield and Hartington Creamery in Derbyshire turn over more than £4.3m a year and employ 25 people, and he planned to double staff numbers with a new fulfilment centre in March.

    “I would be looking to employ another 20 people on top of the 25 we have now,” he said. “So, a substantial investment which we now have to review. I am still shell shocked by what has happened.”

    Spurrell said he voted remain but had come to accept Brexit. “I am a positive person and always make the best of a bad situation and we thought, ‘Right, well let’s get used to this, let’s go with it. Let’s take on Europe from the UK,’ and that’s what we tried to do until 4 January when it was just every parcel was coming back,” he said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/23/cheshire-cheesemaker-says-business-left-with-250000-brexit-hole




  • Article in the Sunday Times shows majority in polls want independence in Scotland, UI in NI.

    'UK national identity disintegrating'

    link





  • Cheese and stuff I get but it does seem kinda mad that small businesses dealing in office supplies and packaging would need to be in the export market.
    Not saying they shouldn't go for it but just surprised there is a market for it




  • A British pensioner couple who want to retire to Spain will have to prove a combined pension income of about €32,000, a figure which increases annually, and is set by central government, not local town councils.

    In addition, they will have to show proof of health insurance and provide police records.

    Given the miserable nature of British state pensions, and given the percentage of British people who have criminal convictions, it's a safe bet that only wealthier Brits will be able to afford to retire to Spain from now on.

    I had no idea that criminal records are so prevalent. What proportion of Irish people have criminal records?

    The financial requirements are not too onerous for most Brits. Most people contemplating such a move would have enough money after selling their house.

    There has been a lot of fuss in the British media about how British pensioners have had it so good, enjoying the so-called "triple lock". Given your surprise at the level of the British state pension, I assumed that the Irish one is much better. So I checked. For someone with 30 years contributions, the Irish state pension looks like €223.20.

    https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/older_and_retired_people/state_pension_contributory.html

    Given that contributions earned in the UK (and in the EU) can be considered, would someone who has only worked in the UK get the full Irish state pension if they retired to Ireland?

    As for health insurance, don't people moving from one EU country to another have to obtain heath insurance anyway, at least to start with? Even if you move from the EEA to Ireland you have to have sickness insurance:
    Have enough resources and sickness insurance to ensure that you do not become a burden on the social services of Ireland

    https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/moving_to_ireland/rights_of_residence_in_ireland/residence_rights_eu_national.html




  • Could they not just set up in Ireland for shorter supply chains or are they looking to cut delivery costs to bigger continental markets?
    That's crazy talk.

    Why would they want to setup here in an English speaking common-law country with a broadly similar culture where existing staff have the right to work and live and collect pensions and vote ?

    Yes they would be much better off firing off the existing staff and starting afresh and getting to know all the new bureaucracy, tax and legal systems with new-hires they don't know.

    For perishable products yes they would need to setup near the main markets.

    Cheese matures so not exactly perishable and we are major exporters so no problem find refrigerated containers to join as a partial load. Transport costs are high here though for parcels.

    Then again when I used to get secondhand books from the UK they were posted from Sweden, and I used Parcelwizard in NI. There are lots of anomalies like AnPost treating NI as National but it's International if go the other way.




  • Dunno. UK mostly I would imagine. Australia and the US would have large cohorts as well.

    There's a lot in the EU - there's an estimated 30k in each of France, Germany and Spain.




  • I'm not sure of UK pensioners retiring to Spain are allowed to include in their annual income the cost of their private health insurance, plus there's also the risk of further GBP depreciation.


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  • mrunsure wrote: »
    I had no idea that criminal records are so prevalent.
    When you consider that each and every speeding ticket is technically crime that is recorded against you , it's not that surprising.




  • dolanbaker wrote: »
    When you consider that each and every speeding ticket is technically crime that is recorded against you , it's not that surprising.

    They are not counted as a criminal record




  • mrunsure wrote: »
    Given that contributions earned in the UK (and in the EU) can be considered, would someone who has only worked in the UK get the full Irish state pension if they retired to Ireland?

    No I don't think they can. Any contributions from another state can be considered but your last contribution needs to have been in Ireland so they would have to work here for at least a little bit to transfer UK contributions.

    Ive looked into getting mine sent over but maybe pensions are different




  • They are not counted as a criminal record
    In and of themselves Fixed Penalty notices are probably OK.
    But failing to turn up in court or not paying them may be a different matter. I can't find a link but I seem to remember at least one person who wasn't able to re-nationalise to get their UK passport back again after escalating unpaid parking fines or was it considered that they "are a persistent offender"

    PDF https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923656/good-character-guidance-v2.0-gov-uk.pdf
    A fine counts as a criminal conviction and forms part of someone’s criminal record.
    Fines must be declared and may result in refusal if received within the last three
    years. Failure to declare may result in an application being refused on the grounds of
    deception. See Deception and Dishonesty.

    Even where a person does not have a fine within the last 3 years, you may still
    conclude that a person is not of good character, and therefore refuse an application,
    if they have received multiple disposals of this kind that show a pattern of offending

    ...
    However, multiple fixed penalty notices over a short period of time could
    demonstrate a disregard for the law and therefore demonstrate that someone is not
    of good character.

    ...
    Even where a person does not have a caution, warning or reprimand within the last 3
    years, an application may still be refused if the person has received multiple
    disposals of this kind that show a pattern of offending.




  • breezy1985 wrote: »
    No I don't think they can. Any contributions from another state can be considered but your last contribution needs to have been in Ireland so they would have to work here for at least a little bit to transfer UK contributions.

    Ive looked into getting mine sent over but maybe pensions are different

    So maybe someone approaching retirement can move to Ireland, get some kind of job, any job, leave that job after a few months then claim the Irish state pension? Could he even then move back to the UK if he wished and continue to get the Irish state pension whilst taking advantage of the lower cost of living in the UK?




  • mrunsure wrote: »
    So maybe someone approaching retirement can move to Ireland, get some kind of job, any job, leave that job after a few months then claim the Irish state pension? Could he even then move back to the UK if he wished and continue to get the Irish state pension whilst taking advantage of the lower cost of living in the UK?

    I don't know about the second bit. I was looking to do it in case i need stamps for anything but I'm 40 years off a pension so didn't check




  • breezy1985 wrote: »
    Cheese and stuff I get but it does seem kinda mad that small businesses dealing in office supplies and packaging would need to be in the export market.
    Not saying they shouldn't go for it but just surprised there is a market for it

    There's a market for eveything. Without investigating, it's hard to know how niche this business is.




  • mrunsure wrote: »
    I had no idea that criminal records are so prevalent. What proportion of Irish people have criminal records?

    No idea. Irrelevant in this context anyway as this requirement is for non-EEA citizens.

    EEA citizens, Irish included, are not covered by this requirement.
    The financial requirements are not too onerous for most Brits. Most people contemplating such a move would have enough money after selling their house.

    No, the requirement is for ongoing pension income, not lump sums from house sales, or redundancy payments or cashing in a pension or whatever other source.
    There has been a lot of fuss in the British media about how British pensioners have had it so good, enjoying the so-called "triple lock". Given your surprise at the level of the British state pension, I assumed that the Irish one is much better. So I checked. For someone with 30 years contributions, the Irish state pension looks like €223.20.

    https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/social_welfare/social_welfare_payments/older_and_retired_people/state_pension_contributory.html

    Given that contributions earned in the UK (and in the EU) can be considered, would someone who has only worked in the UK get the full Irish state pension if they retired to Ireland?

    No idea. Not relevant to my post. There is no minimum income requirement in Spain for EEA pensioners.
    As for health insurance, don't people moving from one EU country to another have to obtain heath insurance anyway, at least to start with? Even if you move from the EEA to Ireland you to have sickness insurance:


    https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/moving_to_ireland/rights_of_residence_in_ireland/residence_rights_eu_national.html

    Social security contributions to state healthcare is counted for this purpose.

    The EU Commission argued this in respect of National Insurance contributions in the UK and the NHS.

    EEA pensioners in Spain have full access to Spain's Sistema Nacional de Salud on the same basis as Spanish pensioners in Spain.

    From 2017:
    The Spanish health system guarantees emergency care to everyone, even if they are not EU citizens. This will not change after Brexit.

    Yet the legal rights to non-emergency healthcare of people who are not EU nationals in Spain depends on their residency entitlements and their association with some kind of health insurance. A 2003 Spanish law (significantly amended in 2012) sets out who is covered by the Sistema Nacional de Salud, the Spanish NHS.

    At the moment, UK citizens living in Spain are able to show permanent residency entitlement by reference to their EU citizenship, and to secure medical treatment as if they were Spanish by virtue of having paid UK tax and national insurance.

    Like Spanish citizens, pensioners with annual incomes of over €100,000 pay 60% of prescription charges, capped at €60 a month, with lower co-payments (the amount that a patient contributes to the cost of their prescriptions) and lower caps for less wealthy pensioners.

    Even if they have not paid tax and national insurance anywhere else, these UK pensioners are still covered by the Spanish NHS if their income is below a certain threshold, as are Spanish nationals, and other foreigners who are authorised to reside in Spain.

    It is currently very easy for British citizens in Spain to enforce their EU law rights, and administrative formalities are relatively light: that’s the whole point of the EU’s reciprocal healthcare system.
    http://siid.group.shef.ac.uk/blog/what-a-no-dealoners-in-spain/




  • No, the requirements are for ongooing pension income, not for a lump sum from a house sale

    I've looked into the practicalities for the "non lucrative visa" and a lump sum to cover one year's expenses is accepted. It doesn't have to be a regular monthly income. So if you sell a house for, for example £200,000, that would be more than enough to meet the income requirement. Clearly you still have to have enough money to meet the requirement when it comes to renew the visa. After 5 years you can get permanent residency and you no longer need this visa.


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  • mrunsure wrote: »
    I've looked into the practicalities for the "non lucrative visa" and a lump sum to cover one year's expenses is accepted. It doesn't have to be a regular monthly income. So if you sell a house for, for example £200,000, that would be more than enough to meet the income requirement. Clearly you still have to have enough money to meet the requirement when it comes to renew the visa. After 5 years you can get permanent residency and you no longer need this visa.

    So these British pensioners are going to rent instead of buying?

    If they use the money from selling a house in the UK to buy a house in Spain, that reduces their lump sum.

    €32,000 per year over 5 years requires a lump sum of €160,000.

    After that's used up, what are the requirements to gain permanent residency for non-EEA nationals?

    As I said in my first post on this topic, only wealthier British pensioners will be able to retire to Spain from now on.


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