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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #8942
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    titan18 wrote: »
    I disagree. Once we're under 5-600 cases a day, positivity rates on tests are under 5% and hospitals and ICU are back in control, I see no reason why they can't open. Hospitality is a different issue and they'll need to be very careful in reopening that but the others imo don't contribute to spread in any large way.

    I think the thinking seems to be it's the movements so parents waiting outside school gates, construction workers getting lifts together in cars or buses and not necessarily wearing masks etc. If community cases are high greater risk if this increasing spread.


  • #8943
    Coybig_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭Coybig_


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    So this must be made up then

    Dying Young: The Health Care Workers in Their 20s Killed by COVID-19


    The people referred to in this article are massively obese and would be categorised as vulnerable. That is one of the primary reasons for Americas huge death rate.

    Here in Ireland we have had 105,407 cases among people aged 44 and younger. 22 deaths. That is a fatality rate of .0002% of confirmed cases in that age group, these people have more of a chance of dying in a car accident than from Covid.


  • #8944
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    zuutroy wrote: »
    Schools not expected to fully re-open before Paddy's Day. Right, wtf is going on, because that's entirely disproportionate looking at how the numbers are reducing.

    Look what happened in Denmark and now Portugal. The new variant makes opening up vastly more risky.


  • #8945
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    Trick question for you.

    How would you feel if it turned out that the U.S. didnt have any or any noticeable excess deaths in 2020?

    I would say that there wasn't a pandemic of note occurring given the amount that it is known to have spread around the US. What's the catch?


  • #8946
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    So this must be made up then

    Dying Young: The Health Care Workers in Their 20s Killed by COVID-19

    It seems to be disproportionately fatal to black and Asian minority ethnic groups for whatever reason.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/why-are-people-from-bame-groups-dying-disproportionately-of-covid-19

    That article suggests it’s because “ The black population, where the discrepancy appears to be greatest, is particularly afflicted with hypertension. Diabetes is three-fold higher in this ethnic group. Both of those conditions will increase your risk of death once you’ve got Covid. The added problem is that these conditions occur at a younger age in people of black descent”


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  • #8947
    Indestructable
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,378 ✭✭✭Indestructable


    There seems to be a concerted effort to drive everybody in the country into a mental health crisis. The relentless negativity, doom and depressing news being driven by the likes of RTE and some others is borderline criminal. We need positivity, but now Stephen Donnelly is on Twitter of all places saying how the vaccine schedule suffered a major setback.

    Yes, realism is important but it's hard to weed out fact from opinion with everything being thrown around at the moment.


  • #8948
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I think the thinking seems to be it's the movements so parents waiting outside school gates, construction workers getting lifts together in cars or buses and not necessarily wearing masks etc. If community cases are high greater risk if this increasing spread.

    I'd argue it's not high when it's under 5-600 though and without opening hospitality I don't think it'd increase much from it (I still think it'd decrease with those open tbh).

    Based on last year when we get into the warmer months you'll have loads out in parks hanging out together and doing takeaway pints and coffees which is about the same risk if not more as 3 or 4 people sitting apart in an hairdressers wearing masks tbh.


  • #8949
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,204 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Coybig_ wrote: »
    The people referred to in this article are massively obese and would be categorised as vulnerable. That is one of the primary reasons for Americas huge death rate.

    Here in Ireland we have had 105,407 cases among people aged 44 and younger. 22 deaths. That is a fatality rate of .0002% of confirmed cases in that age group, these people have more of a chance of dying in a car accident than from Covid.

    It's 0.02% actually. When working out the percentage, you forgot to multiply by 100.


  • #8950
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    titan18 wrote: »
    I'd argue it's not high when it's under 5-600 though and without opening hospitality I don't think it'd increase much from it (I still think it'd decrease with those open tbh).

    Based on last year when we get into the warmer months you'll have loads out in parks hanging out together and doing takeaway pints and coffees which is about the same risk if not more as 3 or 4 people sitting apart in an hairdressers wearing masks tbh.

    I think with cases getting so high lately 500-600 cases a day may not seem like a lot of cases but it still is.

    The main difference with the summer was that cases were in single digits nationally and can't see us getting there for some time.


  • #8951
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Indestructable wrote: »
    There seems to be a concerted effort to drive everybody in the country into a mental health crisis. The relentless negativity, doom and depressing news being driven by the likes of RTE and some others is borderline criminal. We need positivity, but now Stephen Donnelly is on Twitter of all places saying how the vaccine schedule suffered a major setback.

    Yes, realism is important but it's hard to weed out fact from opinion with everything being thrown around at the moment.
    Fact : there is a meeting next week with AstraZeneca about it. In the context of that what Donnelly said is this is likely a setback but we'll see next week exactly how much.


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  • #8952
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    zuutroy wrote: »
    Schools not expected to fully re-open before Paddy's Day. Right, wtf is going on, because that's entirely disproportionate looking at how the numbers are reducing.

    What's the threshold in your opinion? Can we say put the dates aside?


    What criteria are needed before schools open in your opinion?

    I've seen suggestions of reopening contact testing and 1000 cases a day? I've seen 600 cases a day suggested. I've seen 50 in icu suggested (for any relaxation of current measures).

    Given that icu lags hospitalisation which lags diagnosis which lags infections I am almost certain we won't see 50 in icu by St Patrick's.

    There would be some hope mid to late February after we reopen testing for close contacts of confirmed cases if the target is around 1000 cases.


  • #8953
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Coybig_ wrote: »
    The people referred to in this article are massively obese and would be categorised as vulnerable. That is one of the primary reasons for Americas huge death rate.

    Here in Ireland we have had 105,407 cases among people aged 44 and younger. 22 deaths. That is a fatality rate of .0002% of confirmed cases in that age group, these people have more of a chance of dying in a car accident than from Covid.

    I think I read somewhere a BMI above 30 was an enormous factor in requirement of ICU treatment


  • #8954
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    This is a very interesting interview with the German virologist Christian Drosten.
    It covers just about every topic mentioned here in the last few hours

    https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-virologist-christian-drosten-i-am-quite-apprehensive-about-what-might-otherwise-happen-in-spring-and-summer-a-f22c0495-5257-426e-bddc-c6082d6434d5-amp?__twitter_impression=true


  • #8955
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,865 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Coybig_ wrote: »
    The people referred to in this article are massively obese and would be categorised as vulnerable. That is one of the primary reasons for Americas huge death rate.

    Here in Ireland we have had 105,407 cases among people aged 44 and younger. 22 deaths. That is a fatality rate of .0002% of confirmed cases in that age group, these people have more of a chance of dying in a car accident than from Covid.

    Atlantic Dawn said young people are not impacted at alll


  • #8956
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Atlantic Dawn said young people are not impacted at alll

    Atlantic Dawn referenced school age kids

    The link you posted was referring to obese HCW’s


  • #8957
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I think with cases getting so high lately 500-600 cases a day may not seem like a lot of cases but it still is.

    The main difference with the summer was that cases were in single digits nationally and can't see us getting there for some time.

    People were doing the above in April and May where I live and I'd expect them to do it again from March really on when the evenings get longer and brighter. Any good weather at all and you will have people out drinking outdoors.

    Hard to keep places locked down if you're not stopping it and I don't really see the data on spread in places like hairdressers, gyms and shops, and assuming capacity limits in all of those and wearing masks in hairdressers and shops, I'd imagine the impact is very little.


  • #8958
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1352968515268063233?s=21

    That says a lot about why hospital numbers remain stubbornly high

    Disappointed in MM talking about restrictions til June which has been taken out of context to mean current restrictions til June. For all this hype about the new variant, our case numbers are coming down just as quick as in the first lockdown with more stuff open and it being winter which provides a better environment for viral transmission.

    At the current rate, we’ll be at 250 cases or so by the end of February. No need for this harsh lockdown by then


  • #8959
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Probably posted already. Looks like some form of mandatory quarantine being considered. Will act as a deterrent at the very least. https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1352926959597187073?s=19


  • #8960
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Atlantic Dawn said young people are not impacted at alll

    I think when people say young people are not affected it's more so that they are not affected to the degree that restrictions are justified or necessary for the sake of their health at all. Yes there'll be some young people who will die when you have a pandemic spreading at such pace globally with probably hundreds of millions of young people infected by now worldwide but they are and always will be exceptions to the rule and are not the ones we are to worry about and have restrictions in place for.


  • #8961
    zuutroy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭zuutroy


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    What's the threshold in your opinion? Can we say put the dates aside?


    What criteria are needed before schools open in your opinion?

    I've seen suggestions of reopening contact testing and 1000 cases a day? I've seen 600 cases a day suggested. I've seen 50 in icu suggested (for any relaxation of current measures).

    Given that icu lags hospitalisation which lags diagnosis which lags infections I am almost certain we won't see 50 in icu by St Patrick's.

    There would be some hope mid to late February after we reopen testing for close contacts of confirmed cases if the target is around 1000 cases.

    I think once contact testing is happening again, positivity is low to mid single figures and case numbers are less than 1000 and still falling then opening schools shouldn't throw things back into chaos. Level 5 with schools and construction open caused an 80% reduction in cases in one month in Oct/Nov.
    If we're already on a downward trajectory, then even allowing for increased transmissibility of new variants it's hard to imagine the R-number being brought above 1 by schools.


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  • #8962
    thelad95
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,812 ✭✭✭thelad95


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Just a point on your claim of public buy in, there would be no need for fines then if there was such buy in or threats of a fine. Also one year is now a legacy?

    There will always be a cohort of selfish pricks who will do as they please anyway. My point still stands, there was very little objection to increased restrictions after Christmas, in fact many were again willing the government to do so while they dithered.

    Yes, one year is a legacy, how is it fair to expect Leaving Cert students to sit the exams given the likelihood that schools are probably not going to open this side of St. Patrick's Day? Schools were never a safe environment. That was just nonsense peddled by the government because before Christmas, schools staying open was absolutely sacro-sanct. That's gone out the window now.


  • #8963
    Str8outtaWuhan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 968 ✭✭✭Str8outtaWuhan


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Probably posted already. Looks like some form of mandatory quarantine being considered. Will act as a deterrent at the very least. https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1352926959597187073?s=19

    So who pays for this?


  • #8964
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    titan18 wrote: »
    People were doing the above in April and May where I live and I'd expect them to do it again from March really on when the evenings get longer and brighter. Any good weather at all and you will have people out drinking outdoors.

    Hard to keep places locked down if you're not stopping it and I don't really see the data on spread in places like hairdressers, gyms and shops, and assuming capacity limits in all of those and wearing masks in hairdressers and shops, I'd imagine the impact is very little.

    Ah yeah people will alright. Was more thinking restrictions won't be eased as much as they were in summer if cases are as high as 500-600 say. It comes back to community cases being high, I don't think there will be much appetite from NPHET or government to ease restrictions until we've got the current cases under control. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong though!


  • #8965
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,448 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »
    So who pays for this?

    Well the simple answer will be just get the PCR test and you'll be fine wont have to mandatory quarantine. Seems to be more to be seen to be doing something which ultimately won't have that much of an impact


  • #8966
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »
    So who pays for this?

    The visitor potentially importing the infection?


  • #8967
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,175 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Str8outtaWuhan wrote: »
    So who pays for this?

    In other places it's the passengers themselves so presume it would be same here. But detail light at the moment.


  • #8968
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    thelad95 wrote: »
    There will always be a cohort of selfish pricks who will do as they please anyway. My point still stands, there was very little objection to increased restrictions after Christmas, in fact many were again willing the government to do so while they dithered.

    Yes, one year is a legacy, how is it fair to expect Leaving Cert students to sit the exams given the likelihood that schools are probably not going to open this side of St. Patrick's Day? Schools were never a safe environment. That was just nonsense peddled by the government because before Christmas, schools staying open was absolutely sacro-sanct. That's gone out the window now.

    The narrative was never that schools were safe, it was they were safer there is a difference. Again one year is not a legacy . Your point doesn’t stand if it did there would be no need for fines. Also it was mooted before we left restrictions in November/December that restrictions would be imposed again in January. People were aware what was going to happen after Christmas which I believe lead to the cases we now have.
    Your ‘selfish pr*ck ‘ comment is the usual nonsense I read here seeking to blame others for a respiratory virus.


  • #8969
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,865 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Atlantic Dawn referenced school age kids

    They didn't specify 'young people' was referring exclusively to under 18s and were replying to a post about the potential for hospitals to fill up with 'younger people'.


  • #8970
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Ah yeah people will alright. Was more thinking restrictions won't be eased as much as they were in summer if cases are as high as 500-600 say. It comes back to community cases being high, I don't think there will be much appetite from NPHET or government to ease restrictions until we've got the current cases under control. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong though!

    I think they'll be getting serious pressure from the public to do so.

    For example lockdown 1 where we likely had very similar case numbers, we were reopening things about 2-3 months later, and now whilst this one isn't as much of a lockdown, I think things will have had to go very wrong for us to not be sub 500 by March, and for our hospitals and ICU to be back in control. Considering a lot of spread is in hospitals ATM and within homes due to the after effects of Christmas spread, I'd hope it'll really fall off over the next 5-6 weeks.

    Hospitality will be a different animal and I can't see any reopening before Easter, even for outdoor dining, but I'd hope other items will reopen that don't contribute as much to the spread.


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  • #8971
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    This is a very interesting interview with the German virologist Christian Drosten.
    It covers just about every topic mentioned here in the last few hours

    https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-virologist-christian-drosten-i-am-quite-apprehensive-about-what-might-otherwise-happen-in-spring-and-summer-a-f22c0495-5257-426e-bddc-c6082d6434d5-amp?__twitter_impression=true
    DER SPIEGEL: Do you think that the so-called Zero-COVID strategy, the goal of sinking the number of new infections to zero, is the right way forward?

    Drosten: I do think it would be possible with a significant effort. The virus, of course, would continue to flare up, just as we have seen in China and Australia. But it would absolutely be worthwhile to at least identify zero new infections as a target. Primarily because I am quite apprehensive about what might otherwise happen in the spring and summer.

    DER SPIEGEL: What do you mean?

    Drosten: Once the elderly and maybe part of the risk groups have been vaccinated, there will be immense economic, social, political and perhaps also legal pressure to end the corona measures. And then, huge numbers of people will become infected within just a short amount of time, more than we can even imagine at the moment. We won't have 20,000 or 30,000 new cases a day, but up to 100,000 in a worst-case scenario. It will, of course, be primarily younger people who are less likely than older people to have severe symptoms, but when a huge number of younger people get infected, then the intensive care units will fill up anyway and a lot of people will die. Just that it will be younger people. We can cushion this terrible scenario somewhat by pushing the numbers way down now.

    DER SPIEGEL: Can we be confident that case numbers will begin to drop in spring as temperatures rise?

    Drosten: I don't think so. The fact that we had such a relaxed summer in 2020 likely had to do with the fact that our case numbers remained below a critical threshold in the spring. But that's not the case any longer. I am afraid that it will be more like in Spain, where case numbers climbed rapidly again after the lockdown was lifted, even though it was quite hot. In South Africa, too, where it is currently summer, case numbers are at a high level.

    The numbers of cases that remain after a lockdown to reseed are a very important consideration. In May 2020 we had numbers in the 20s and 30s when we opened up. And those very low numbers were maintained because of the low initial seeding.


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