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€25k invested in prize bonds
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dxhound2005 wrote: »Since our discussion about the reduced number of €50 prizes this month, I have been keeping an eye on the State Savings site. In the past they introduced changes on Sundays.
Among wholesale reductions to interest rates, the notional interest rate on Prize Bonds is coming down from 0.50% to 0.35%. The two €1m prizes are gone, but there are four new €250K prizes. The rest of the prize structure stays the same. We will see in February the effect on the number of €50 prizes.
https://www.statesavings.ie/prize-bonds
Was very surprised that this didn't happen on the October bank Holiday weekend. Long overdue, unfortunately.
I've taken a stab at the change in the number of €50 prizes, using the calculations from dub_nerd's spreadsheet on AAM, amended for the new prize structure. I have taken a baseline figure of €3,850,000,000 as the value of the total Prize Bond fund.
It looks to me as though the number of €50 prizes will reduced from 279,400 to 185,900, a reduction of 33.5%. So for every three €50 prizes you won in the recent past, you will stand to win two in the future. (These are approximations as the prize fund is based on the number of bonds outstanding and we can only guess at this number, but based on various posts by dxhound2005 I don't think it is too far from the mark).
||O L D||||N E W
Prize amount|Num per yr|Tot amt per yr|_______|Prize amount|Num per yr|Tot amt per yr
1,000,000|2|2,000,000||250,000|4|1,000,000
50,000|50|2,500,000||50,000|48|2,400,000
1,000|520|520,000||1,000|520|520,000
500|520|260,000||500|520|260,000
Tot large prizes:||5,280,000||Tot large prizes:||4,180,000
|O L D|||N E W
A. Total Prize Bond fund|3,850,000,000|_______|A. Total Prize Bond fund|3,850,000,000
B. Total Prize Bond return|0.5%||B. Total Prize Bond return|0.35%
C. Total large prizes (Table above)|5,280,000||C. Total large prizes (Table above)|4,180,000
D. Total prizes (A x
|19,250,000||D. Total prizes (A x |13,475,000
E. Total €50 prizes (D - C)|13,970,000||E. Total €50 prizes (D - C)|9,295,000
F. Number €50 prizes (E / 50)|279,400||F. Number €50 prizes (E / 50)|185,900
G. Avg return in €50 prizes only (E / A)|0.36%||G. Avg return in €50 prizes only (E / A)|0.24%
The saving to NTMA/The Exchequer is €5.8m per annum.
My expected outturn in 2020 was 18.36no. €50 prizes (€900). The actually result was better at 24no. €50 prizes (€1,200). My expectation for 2021 based on the the new structure is 12.22no. €50 prizes (for €600)
Now let's sit back and await an outpouring of unasked advice on what we really should be doing with our money (precious metals, crypto currencies, various small time oil exploration companies, chocolate biscuits, the descendants of Arkle and God knows what else)0 -
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I have re-run the numbers with the the baseline increased from €3.85m to the €4.1m stated in Charlie Weston's Independent article which vicwatson quoted. This increases the number of €50 prizes from the number I calculated previously. The revised numbers are as follows:
When compared to the .5% return previously offered, the number of €50 prizes will reduced from 304,400 to 203,400, a reduction of 33.2%. So for every three €50 prizes you won in the recent past, you will stand to win two in the future.
||O L D||||N E W
Prize amount|Num per yr|Tot amt per yr|_______|Prize amount|Num per yr|Tot amt per yr
1,000,000|2|2,000,000||250,000|4|1,000,000
50,000|50|2,500,000||50,000|48|2,400,000
1,000|520|520,000||1,000|520|520,000
500|520|260,000||500|520|260,000
Tot large prizes:||5,280,000||Tot large prizes:||4,180,000
|O L D|||N E W
A. Total Prize Bond fund|4,100,000,000|_______|A. Total Prize Bond fund|4,100,000,000
B. Total Prize Bond return|0.5%||B. Total Prize Bond return|0.35%
C. Total large prizes (Table above)|5,280,000||C. Total large prizes (Table above)|4,180,000
D. Total prizes (A x|20,500,000||D. Total prizes (A x |14,350,000
E. Total €50 prizes (D - C)|15,220,000||E. Total €50 prizes (D - C)|10,170,000
F. Number €50 prizes (E / 50)|304,400||F. Number €50 prizes (E / 50)|203,400
G. Avg return in €50 prizes only (E / A)|0.37%||G. Avg return in €50 prizes only (E / A)|0.25%
The saving to NTMA/The Exchequer is €6.15m per annum.
My expected outturn in 2020 was 18.36no. €50 prizes (€900). The actually result was better at 24no. €50 prizes (€1,200). My expectation for 2021 based on the the new structure is 12.55no. €50 prizes (approx €600)0 -
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Hibernicis wrote: »
Now let's sit back and await an outpouring of unasked advice on what we really should be doing with our money (precious metals, crypto currencies, various small time oil exploration companies, chocolate biscuits, the descendants of Arkle and God knows what else)
Well I bought Atlantic Resources, Eglington Oil and Gas, Conroy, and a few others back in the 1980's and I am still waiting for a return on my money.
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The notice in the Sunday Indodxhound2005 wrote: »Since our discussion about the reduced number of €50 prizes this month, I have been keeping an eye on the State Savings site. In the past they introduced changes on Sundays.
Among wholesale reductions to interest rates, the notional interest rate on Prize Bonds is coming down from 0.50% to 0.35%. The two €1m prizes are gone, but there are four new €250K prizes. The rest of the prize structure stays the same. We will see in February the effect on the number of €50 prizes.
https://www.statesavings.ie/prize-bondsState Savings NTMA
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