€25k invested in prize bonds

Agent Smyth

According to the Prize bonds "The value of the prize fund is recalculated at the end of every month, in line with the monthly net sales of Prize Bonds"

Todays draw has 4409 prizes which equates to a yearly PF of €15,588,800, which is .35% of €4,453,942,065

The draw on the 4th of Jan had 5745 prizes which equates to a PF of €20,162,400, which is .5% of €4,032,480,000

I'm not sure how the PB present the fund in their accounts but if they say there is more in the fund than the above figure then there should have been more prizes awarded*

* the usual T&Cs apply to my figures


Just looking at this again and I've only noticed the 420 odd growth in Jan of this year, am I correct with my figures????

dxhound2005

During the Live Line discussion, State Savings sent Joe Duffy a statement saying that the prize fund will be coming down from approx €20 million (the actual figure paid out in 2020 will have to wait for the Annual Report) to approximately €14 million. The reduction from 0.50% to 0.35% is 30%. 70% of €20m is €14m.

The fixed amount for big prizes was known at the start of the year, when they reduced the number of prizes in January. This was ahead of any public knowledge of the impending change. That fixed amount has to be taken into account each month when the number of €50 prizes is being recalculated.

Just for arguments sake, if there was some scandal in the morning and €2 billion was withdrawn in the next month, then all calculations would go out the window.

Saudades

pbwinner wrote: »

Winnings on 5th February 2021: €0
Last win 18th December 2020: €100
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €3150
2011: €75 x 4 = €300
2012: €75 x 6 = €450
2013: €50 x 12 = €600
2014: €50 x 9 = €450
2015: €50 x 5 = €250
2016: €50 x 5 = €250
2017: €50 x 4 = €200
2018: €50 x 2 = €100
2019: €50 x 6 = €300
2020: €50 x 5 = €250
2021: €0

10 year anniversary?

adox

Nothing for me again this week.

Last win was last October.

Agent Smyth

Okay so after dxhounds suggestion I came back from the shops this morning with a packet of Hamlet and did this
Fund value at the end of each month, the growth in each month for 2020 and then the fund value for the last 3 years

December €4,032,480,000 Growth (30,160,000)
November €4,062,640,000 Growth €44,200,000
October €4,018,440,000 Growth €44,204,000
September €3,974,240,000 Growth €33,280,000
August €3,940,960,000 Growth €35,880,000
July €3,905,080,000 Growth €24,960,000
June €3,880,120,000 Growth €39,520,000
May €3,840,600,000 Growth €45,240,000
April €3,795,360,000 Growth €46,280,000
March €3,749,080,000 Growth €50,200,000
February €3,698,880,000 Growth €16,880,000
January €3,682,000,000 Growth €27,040,000

2020 €4,032,480,000
2019 €3,654,960,000
2018 €3,404,320,000

In December 2020 there was a net reduction in the prize fund of €30,160,000 which IIRC is the second time this has happened since I started posting in this thread but I don't recall seeing any like the growth we had in January of this year €421,462,857 before or any where near it (if my figures are correct)

Hibernicis

Agent Smyth wrote: »

Okay so after dxhounds suggestion I came back from the shops this morning with a packet of Hamlet and did this
Fund value at the end of each month, the growth in each month for 2020 and then the fund value for the last 3 years

December €4,032,480,000 Growth (30,160,000)
November €4,062,640,000 Growth €44,200,000
October €4,018,440,000 Growth €44,204,000
September €3,974,240,000 Growth €33,280,000
August €3,940,960,000 Growth €35,880,000
July €3,905,080,000 Growth €24,960,000
June €3,880,120,000 Growth €39,520,000
May €3,840,600,000 Growth €45,240,000
April €3,795,360,000 Growth €46,280,000
March €3,749,080,000 Growth €50,200,000
February €3,698,880,000 Growth €16,880,000
January €3,682,000,000 Growth €27,040,000

2020 €4,032,480,000
2019 €3,654,960,000
2018 €3,404,320,000

In December 2020 there was a net reduction in the prize fund of €30,160,000 which IIRC is the second time this has happened since I started posting in this thread but I don't recall seeing any like the growth we had in January of this year €421,462,857 before or any where near it (if my figures are correct)

Hi AS
That is very interesting, thank you. May I please ask a few questions:

Did you calculate the monthly values, and if so was it by working back from the following month’s prize fund?
If not, what is the source of the monthly values ?
What’s the source for the January 2021 increase ?

Thank you

dxhound2005

There would have been a net increase in the fund in December, not a reduction. The number of €50 prizes were reduced in January, but this was State Savings having the knowledge that the impending reduction to the interest rate was coming. One month at 0.50% and eleven months at 0.35% would have been part of the calculations. But also the fixed amount for big prizes for the full year of 2021 would form part of the calculations.

Agent Smyth

Hi Hibernicis
Yes I used the prize fund from each month that is on the PB website and thanks to dxhound supplying the €50 prize numbers for the months that were missing,
I was able calculate the bond fund at the end of each month
I've no idea why the fund grew by such a large amount, the biggest IIRC was about 2 to 3 times the normal growth and I think that was around the time they put a limit on personal holdings
my own guess is it's either the PB people clearing a back log of unprocessed bond sales (probably an unlikely reason) or it's some sort of institutional buying like a pension fund or maybe an organisation trying to avoid negative interest rates on large cash deposits
We probably will never know but it's like a years growth and then some in one month

By any chance can any of the winners in the first draw of January and those of the first draw of February that reinvest their winnings post the numbers of the new bonds they received
I don't necessarily need the full number just the letters will do, I'm just trying to see my growth figure for January is correct, if I'm correct the should a big jump in the letters used??

tuisginideach

Sorry, I can't help - I take the money currently although I'm thinking of changing that to reinvestment.

Hibernicis

I can’t help either as I didn’t win anything in January !

I’m genuinely puzzled by the €4.4bn figure. Has the €4.4bn been published anywhere or is it a calculation ? Pension funds, companies and and other bodies corporate are no longer allowed to purchase prize bonds so that can’t be it. An increase of €421m in one month would require and extraordinary number of individuals investing large amounts (e.g. 1,684 individuals purchasing the maximum holding of €250k or the equivalent).

Charlie Weston in this article in the Indo states that the year end figure was €4.1bn (I think that this article was based on a press release from State Savings, though I am not certain).

I might play with the figures in a spreadsheet tonight (being a non smoker it’s the best I can do, not having access to fag packets and cigar boxes)

Hibernicis

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There would have been a net increase in the fund in January, not a reduction. The number of €50 prizes were reduced in January, but this was State Savings having the knowledge that the impending reduction to the interest rate was coming. One month at 0.50% and eleven months at 0.35% would have been part of the calculations. But also the fixed amount for big prizes for the full year of 2021 would form part of the calculations.

Surely they would have had to calculate the January prizes based on the old prize structure exclusively until the coming into force of the new prize structure on 5th February ?

Agent Smyth

Just went back over my notes and a quick search through the thread to see how my YE figures compare to the PB's accounts
On a side note reading some of my earlier post really made me cringe at times, what was I thinking if I was thinking at all
Anyhow for pig iron's sake here's my YE figures using the prizes fund in Jan of each year vs the PB's accounts

2020 €4,032,480,000

---

Not available yet
2019 €3,654,960,000

---

€3655.M
2018 €3,404,320,000

---

€3415.2M
2017 €3,169,800,000

---

€3170.1M
2016 €2,894,423,529

---

€2894.3M
2015 €2,442,816,000

---

€2481.M
2015 €2,176,368,000

---

€2176.4M

And I came across a figure I did for Oct 2011 €1,330,946,666

dxhound2005

The Annual Reports for years before 2015 are on Google. 2011 end of year says value of fund €1,448 million. Some of the earlier years will have to be dug out of the NTMA reports, not stand alone Prize Bonds reports.

It's easy to work out an approximate value of sales for current months, by taking the newest bond number to win a prize at the start and the end of the month. I figure that there were sales of €75 m in Dec 2020. So there is no way that the January €50 prizes should have gone down, unless the January calculation is connected to the overall annual calculation.

Asus X540L

I've been buying Prize Bonds since last April. I now have approx €8,175.

Have won two things since - Jack and Shít.

billyhead

For those who haven't won anything why don't you invest in the saving certs or bonds. You gain interest and give 7 days notice to withdraw at any time. The longer you leave the investment the better return.

Cal04

Can you tell us more billyhead, are there risks with them?

billyhead

The investment is guaranteed. See here https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.statesavings.ie/our-products&ved=2ahUKEwi59OjC7OHuAhWXSxUIHcTYBN0QFjACegQIDBAB&usg=AOvVaw02YKFDcBjcPzcooSpHUj7L&cshid=1613047066512

cruizer101

With the bonds there is no risk similar to prize bonds but at the same time the return isn't great.
The 10yr which is best gives 10% at the end of 10 years, equivalent to 0.96%AER.
However if you take your money out early you don't get the same rate, eg. after 7years you get 1% total not 0.96%*7.
If you compare to pbwinner further up thread who got 3,150 on 25k over 10 years that is ~12%, so is better than the bond.
You are not guaranteed that, but with enough prize bonds you should get something and might win big.
Is it the best investment you could make, maybe not, but its not a bad one either.

Asus X540L

billyhead wrote: »

The investment is guaranteed. See here https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.statesavings.ie/our-products&ved=2ahUKEwi59OjC7OHuAhWXSxUIHcTYBN0QFjACegQIDBAB&usg=AOvVaw02YKFDcBjcPzcooSpHUj7L&cshid=1613047066512

All state savings aren't really that good to be honest.

When my fixed term mortgage expires I'm pumping everything in there.

billyhead

cruizer101 wrote: »

With the bonds there is no risk similar to prize bonds but at the same time the return isn't great.
The 10yr which is best gives 10% at the end of 10 years, equivalent to 0.96%AER.
However if you take your money out early you don't get the same rate, eg. after 7years you get 1% total not 0.96%*7.
If you compare to pbwinner further up thread who got 3,150 on 25k over 10 years that is ~12%, so is better than the bond.
You are not guaranteed that, but with enough prize bonds you should get something and might win big.
Is it the best investment you could make, maybe not, but its not a bad one either.

It's better than having money rotting in an account in the bank. If you have say your mortgage paid off and are risk adverse i.e don't want to invest in stocks or shares it's a good investment i.e the 10 year solidarity bonds.

John arse

i've had bonds now for nearly ten years(max 180k at one stage) and firmly believe that some people on here are posting fake figures-beware,don't believe everything you read!

Bill Ponderosa

Asus X540L wrote: »

All state savings aren't really that good to be honest.

When my fixed term mortgage expires I'm pumping everything in there.

What's the best strategy here? Move onto variable and over pay and just land a lump sum?

dxhound2005

John arse wrote: »

i've had bonds now for nearly ten years(max 180k at one stage) and firmly believe that some people on here are posting fake figures-beware,don't believe everything you read!

If you can, go back to 01 August 2017 and see how much you won up to 31 January 2021. With average luck you would have made an annualised return of approximately 0.35%. Obviously take into account any changes to your holding during the period.

It is very possible to exceed the average. Even in one draw, bonds worth €17K can win three prizes. You can verify this on the map for the draw of 05 February 2021. I don't see any point in people making up lies. I certainly never did.


Prize Value Winning Prize Bond Location

€50.00 QP640999 Down
€50.00 QP642178 Down
€50.00 QP643601 Down

tuisginideach

Nor did I! Why would I, or anyone?

Hibernicis

Beats me why anybody would go to the trouble of doing it. I certainly haven't.

John arse

tuisginideach wrote: »

Nor did I! Why would I, or anyone?

yes well sorry about ruffling feathers but as a bond holder now for nearly ten years i understand how luck,chance and the law of averages work but when someone is consistently achieving returns of around 1% (three times the rate) and NEVER experiencing a dry spell or trough over many many years-i'm very very dubious.i imagine many people view this site as research before investment so therefore putting in 100k and expecting to win 20 times and then actually returning 5 wins(the average) is very misleading i think (on average 10k will win once every two years don't forget.)maybe i'm wrong and this individual is very very fortunate but the lack of a dry spell of any kind says a lot i think.in answer to your question i can only assume this individual has a vested interest in the sale of prize bonds.just don't want people to be misled.could be wrong if so apologies but,,,,,

dxhound2005

John arse wrote: »

yes well sorry about ruffling feathers but as a bond holder now for nearly ten years i understand how luck,chance and the law of averages work but when someone is consistently achieving returns of around 1% (three times the rate) and NEVER experiencing a dry spell or trough over many many years-i'm very very dubious.i imagine many people view this site as research before investment so therefore putting in 100k and expecting to win 20 times and then actually returning 5 wins(the average) is very misleading i think (on average 10k will win once every two years don't forget.)maybe i'm wrong and this individual is very very fortunate but the lack of a dry spell of any kind says a lot i think.in answer to your question i can only assume this individual has a vested interest in the sale of prize bonds.just don't want people to be misled.could be wrong if so apologies but,,,,,

Here are the notional interest rates which applied over the years.

2000 2.75%.
2004 2.4%
Sept 2007 3%.
Jan 2012 2.25%
June 2012 1.75%.
Dec 2013 1.6%
Nov 2014 1.25%.
July 2016 0.85%.
Aug 2017 0.5%.

Feb 2021 0.35%.

You did not give enough information to work with, but I don't see why someone would not have achieved 1% or more at times. I read the thread regularly, and I am certain that nobody ever claimed to have made anywhere near 1% annualised since August 2017. I made around 0.5% in two successive years, but that is hardly worth boasting about. What interest rate did you achieve since August 2017?

dxhound2005

Rather than edit the above post I will correct what I said here. There is a poster who has got well above the average since August 2017. But since they started posting 10 years ago when the rate was 3%, their overall return is 12.6%. Which would not encourage anyone to go into Prize Bonds.

Rulmeq

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Rather than edit the above post I will correct what I said here. There is a poster who has got well above the average since August 2017. But since they started posting 10 years ago when the rate was 3%, their overall return is 12.6%. Which would not encourage anyone to go into Prize Bonds.

It's a better return than the "more than 4billion profit" that NAMA got on €64 billion over 12 years. :rolleyes:

yabadabado

Asus X540L wrote: »

I've been buying Prize Bonds since last April. I now have approx €8,175.

Have won two things since - Jack and Shít.

If it's any consolation,I have 5 times that amount and I've won the same 2 things as you since March 2019.