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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #6152
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    growleaves wrote: »
    Families standing around together in the sea air... that really burns me up emotionally.

    According to rickety theory of causality #5167 they could be responsible for the occupation of as many as 3.7 ICU beds.

    Mod:

    Threadbanned

    Moderator: Current Affairs/IMHO, Soccer, Pro Wrestling



  • #6153
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    I agree, outside looks to be far safer. 20 x or something I've seen quoted, but transmission still does still occur - and especially when there is no social distancing or masks being used.

    The virus is rampant at the moment and there is a lot of uncertainty about the new variant, formite trasmission, thriving in cold temperatures, and frightening anecdotes of people catching it during very brief encounters.

    With all that in mind, it would be better if we all err on the side of caution, follow nephts advice, and keep to ourselves for the time being, at least for the next month or so.
    Agreed that we have to err on the side of caution with the new variant. I'm still suspicious of the claims that people get it after brief encounters however, there seems to be a lot of "I only met one friend briefly in their garden" which becomes "well I had a cup of tea inside because it started to rain, then I went to the bathroom, and then I picked up my teenager who was meeting her friends, I have no idea how I got infected in the garden but that must have been it" when you dig into the stories.

    The idea that some people have that everyone is literally going to stay indoors for months on end is bonkers. It's not realistic, even leaving aside the fact that in a city a large number of people do not have big gardens and so on.

    I'd prefer not to see people congregating outside either, but in my opinion there is an awful lot more spread happening indoors which gets ignored because we can't see it. The statistics also back this up - it's rare to find evidence of significant levels of outdoor transmission anywhere in the world (I'm not saying it's impossible, just less risk). It's a lot easier to say "shut the playgrounds" than it is to tackle the difficult problems of indoor transmission.


  • #6154
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    What is the positivity rate now?

    12.2% today


  • #6155
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    I wouldn't say it's bad, but it's disappointing considering the country has now come through more than a whole 14 day incubation cycle of what should be extremely limited opportunities to spread the disease.

    Even if there was a total lockdown, cases would still take longer than 14 days to ripple through households. We are far from a total lockdown and still far from the behaviour in April.

    Even with limited social encounters of which there still seems to be many and many thousands still going to work some of whom are unnecessarily doing so or being made do so by their employers, it will take a long time for the chains of transmission to be broken.

    Many of those who think they are obeying the guidelines still have more contacts than is absolutely essential at the moment.


  • #6156
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Datacore wrote: »
    What was the point of “advice” to people in the U.K.?
    They weren’t sitting around watching RTE or permanently tuned to Newstalk.

    Most of them likely paid no heed to a message that was mumbled into a debate in a bubble.

    I was just posting earlier that people I’m encountering on Zoom meetings etc aren’t even sure what Level 5 is. They weren’t aware there’s a stay at home mandate.

    One person seemed to think we were in Tier 3 “or something”.

    And someone else thought it was a 2km limit, but that you could meet people outdoors.

    If that’s how poorly understood messaging is here, they might as well have been posting on Boards and hoping that the message was heard loud and clear in England.

    If they didn’t want people to travel, they should have banned entry. Everything else is pointless waffle and I’m sick listening to it at this stage.

    You mean everyone wasn't glued to oireachtas TV? Had they watched it they would have gotten the wishy washy message......and promptly ignored it.



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  • #6157
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Stheno wrote: »
    12.2% today

    Thanks a mill. Just found it

    https://twitter.com/covid19dataie/status/1350459803756331012?s=21


  • #6158
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    majcos wrote: »
    Even if there was a total lockdown, cases would still take longer than 14 days to ripple through households. We are far from a total lockdown and still far from the behaviour in April.

    Even with limited social encounters of which there still seems to be many and many thousands still going to work some of whom are unnecessarily doing so or being made do so by their employers, it will take a long time for the chains of transmission to be broken.

    Many of those who think they are obeying the guidelines still have more contacts than is absolutely essential at the moment.
    We need a small army of Covid inspectors. It sounds awful to think about, but we need every business which is open to get a visit to be asked whether they can work from home, every car needs to be stopped and asked what they are doing.

    They could have spinning blades or tasers attached to them which are two metres wide to enforce social distancing outdoors.


  • #6159
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,041 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Just to put the case numbers in perspective,

    in 2020, we had 91,779 cases
    in 2021, we've had 77,921 cases, so it's possible we'll have more cases in January 2021 than we had in the entire 2020.

    (Obviously it's likely we missed more cases in 2020 than we've missed in 2021)


  • #6160
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,975 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    is_that_so wrote: »
    We should all be staying away from other people anyway.

    I agree but it is simplistic to say this.
    If a close contact is told to restrict by the HSE text but not tested, that person is out of the infection loop.
    However that person may be also positive and if asymptomatic will never know nor will those that he was close enough to infect know toretrict their movements .
    Some of these would still be going into a workplace or caring for vulnerable people .


  • #6161
    Lemonzero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26 ✭Lemonzero


    With the new varient(s), congregating in groups outdoors might have an increased risk because of the increased transmitability.

    On another point, should the social distance guidelines have been reviewed as a result of new varient? Does the 2 metre and 15 minute rule still apply and if not what are the new rules.

    Nepht continually saying that the same rules apply but do? Maybe it should be 5 minutes and not 15 before you are now a close contact? Maybe its less than 2 metres now? Dont think we are in the same playing field as before


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  • #6162
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    With an R0 of 0.5, you'd expect infection levels to drop about 50% every 14 days or so.

    Which is about 30% every 7 days. Our 7 day average this day last week was 6,258 cases.

    Today it's 4380.

    That is almost bang on a 30% drop.

    Which suggests the current R0 is about 0.5. And that's about as low as it can get without locking everyone in their homes.

    So stop curtain twitching. Stop tutting at people out and about, stop panicking that the world is on fire.

    As a population, we are beating this. We are sticking to the guidelines. It is working. Keep the head, keep the faith, and stay at home.


  • #6163
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Lemonzero wrote: »
    With the new varient(s), congregating in groups outdoors might have an increased risk because of the increased transmitability.

    On another point, should the social distance guidelines have been reviewed as a result of new varient? Does the 2 metre and 15 minute rule still apply and if not what are the new rules.

    Nepht continually saying that the same rules apply but do? Maybe it should be 5 minutes and not 15 before you are now a close contact? Maybe its less than 2 metres now? Dont think we are in the same playing field as bwfore
    We haven't been in that playing field for months now since we found out the virus was airborne. If you're in a poorly ventilated place it doesn't matter how far away you are from someone with the virus, you are at high risk. Multiple studies have proven this. It's poor risk communication from the government that people are still thinking "2 metres=safe".

    We still don't know whether there is any increased risk from outdoors transmission, although I've started wearing a mask when being approached by ignorant non-distancing joggers because of a higher chance of droplets and more deeply exhaled particles.


  • #6164
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    It was a terrible message , look at us best in Europe . Now have a ball and we will deal with it in January

    Look how that turned out

    That wasn’t the message from NPHET. They repeatedly cautioned people about Christmas gatherings. They warned that just because you could doesn’t mean you should. They warned that even though restaurants were open, that if you intended visiting family that you should quarantine/limit your contacts beforehand.

    I think many were under the illusion that if they behaved within the guidelines, that they would be immune. It is not just those who went to rowdy pubs and underground raves that spread Covid over Christmas. It was the cumulative effect of all those smaller seemingly careful gatherings at a time when cases in the community were not sufficiently suppressed.

    It was the son or daughter who went home from a shared house in Dublin to Mayo, the young nurse who visited her grandparents after a negative test and then tested positive 48 hours later, the person who had a quiet meal in a restaurant with three close friends who all then carried it back to their families, the siblings who visited each other, the grandparents who wanted to see their grandchildren, and the person who flew home from London when guidelines allowed them to do so.


  • #6165
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    majcos wrote: »
    That wasn’t the message from NPHET. They repeatedly cautioned people about Christmas gatherings. They warned that just because you could doesn’t mean you should. They warned that even though restaurants were open, that if you intended visiting family that you should quarantine/limit your contacts beforehand.

    I think many were under the illusion that if they behaved within the guidelines, that they would be immune. It is not just those who went to rowdy pubs and underground raves that spread Covid over Christmas. It was the cumulative effect of all those smaller seemingly careful gatherings at a time when cases in the community were not sufficiently suppressed.

    It was the son or daughter who went home from a shared house in Dublin to Mayo, the young nurse who visited her grandparents after a negative test and then tested positive 48 hours later, the person who had a quiet meal in a restaurant with three close friends who all then carried it back to their families, the siblings who visited each other, the grandparents who wanted to see their grandchildren, and the person who flew home from London when guidelines allowed them to do so.

    Oh yes I agree it wasn’t from NPHET . It was from Government who crowed we were the lowest in Europe and opened retail just in time to cause a surge into shops and then the same people went and had Christmas with family


  • #6166
    jd1983
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 186 ✭✭jd1983


    Ironhead93 wrote: »
    I'm still a little baffled how high the numbers have gotten, did we really have the least restricted Christmas in the world? (obviously excluding outliers like NZ AND AUS)

    Pent up demand due to having probably the most restrictive autumn in Europe. This also meant we had very little general immunity. We've basically implemented the opposite to a 'flatten the curve' strategy.


  • #6167
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    majcos wrote: »
    It was the son or daughter who went home from a shared house in Dublin to Mayo, the young nurse who visited her grandparents after a negative test and then tested positive 48 hours later, the person who had a quiet meal in a restaurant with three close friends who all then carried it back to their families, the siblings who visited each other, the grandparents who wanted to see their grandchildren, and the person who flew home from London when guidelines allowed them to do so.
    And in fairness to everyone, we know this virus spreads like wildfire in places with large numbers of people. You only have to look at the areas which are at the top of the charts to realise there was ****-acting going on. Look at Belmullet, Wexford, West Limerick and you see large-scale spread which was caused by a small number of events, and this all gets carried back into homes by who-ever was irresponsible enough to be at the source.

    Why are the people who attended these events not being prosecuted? I was delighted to see today that someone finally got fined for attending a house party, but that seemed to have been back in May. This is too slow.


  • #6168
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Carlowgirl wrote: »
    In my workplace everyone goes in ands it's perfectly OK to be inside crowded rooms. It's all OK if you've a mask on apparently. The virus will only transmit if youvare face to face for exactly 15 mins. 14:mins is OK but 15 and you'll get it. Also it know s if your not in the space for two hours. If it's 1 hour 59 mins your safe as a house. Sorry for my sarcasm but it just doesn't really make sense to me anymore I should invite my friends around for one hour 59 mins... Cos that's all OK...


    Only those who cannot work at home should be going in and even if wearing masks, crowded rooms are definitely not perfectly okay. Face to face contact should be extremely limited and distance maintained as much as possible even when wearing masks. Really does not sound like your workplace was/is safely interpreting and following the guidelines.


  • #6169
    SnuggyBear
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 965 ✭✭✭SnuggyBear


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Good luck trying to keep the public onside for social distancing and restrictions once we have the nursing homes, hcw and those over 70 vaccinated

    Aye, I can't wait to go on tinder and get a ride. Not waiting any longer than that


  • #6170
    Kunta Kinte
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 718 ✭✭✭Kunta Kinte


    mean gene wrote: »
    most people had a sh1t christmas and done fcuk all these numbers are nuts

    Clearly a lot of people did. No wonder the cases have sky rocketed the way they have.


  • #6171
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    seamus wrote: »
    Which is about 30% every 7 days. Our 7 day average this day last week was 6,258 cases.

    Today it's 4380.

    That is almost bang on a 30% drop.
    Was there not some backlog in that 6258?


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  • #6172
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,921 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    seamus wrote: »
    With an R0 of 0.5, you'd expect infection levels to drop about 50% every 14 days or so.

    Which is about 30% every 7 days. Our 7 day average this day last week was 6,258 cases.

    Today it's 4380.

    That is almost bang on a 30% drop.

    Which suggests the current R0 is about 0.5. And that's about as low as it can get without locking everyone in their homes.

    So stop curtain twitching. Stop tutting at people out and about, stop panicking that the world is on fire.

    As a population, we are beating this. We are sticking to the guidelines. It is working. Keep the head, keep the faith, and stay at home.

    By those maths we're still looking at around 1k cases a day 21 days from now


  • #6173
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    I dunno, all this back slapping. The CMO says the virus has taken root in every single part of the country" and that the levels of infection are still "far too high" Cmo


  • #6174
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,975 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Stheno wrote: »
    That wasn't really the message in fairness

    There was advice for people not to fly into the country which was ignored by 150k people
    There was advice to self isolate if you did travel

    And there was advice to limit your contacts prior to visiting family for Christmas as well

    All at the last minute. A few days before Christmas when that ship had sailed , if you'll pardon the pun .


  • #6175
    DebDynamite
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,727 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    Family member works in a privately run nursing home. They got tested late last week and got vaccinated this week. 9 residents tested positive and 3 sadly died. A few workers tested positive as well. The had no outbreaks until now. Sad that it was only a few days before they got vaccinated. They don’t get sick pay either which is an absolute disgrace.


  • #6176
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    All at the last minute. A few days before Christmas when that ship had sailed , if you'll pardon the pun .

    I don't remember that being the case at all

    It was clear to me well before Christmas that I could choose to eat out or have visitors to my house/ visit others

    Flights were banned very close to Christmas yes


  • #6177
    manofwisdom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭manofwisdom


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    I dunno, all this back slapping. The CMO says the virus has taken root in every single part of the country" and that the levels of infection are still "far too high" Cmo

    One of his objectives is to not allow any complacency set in. Good progress has been made this week in the terms of a decrease in cases and positive swabs compared to the week before but we need a number of weeks of progress to suppress this virus.


  • #6178
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,144 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    By those maths we're still looking at around 1k cases a day 21 days from now

    It's actually closer to 1500. He seems to have ignored compounding in reverse.

    Also, the R0 is a nothing like 0.5 at the moment.


  • #6179
    AlekSmart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,004 ✭✭✭✭AlekSmart


    hmmm wrote: »
    We haven't been in that playing field for months now since we found out the virus was airborne. If you're in a poorly ventilated place it doesn't matter how far away you are from someone with the virus, you are at high risk. Multiple studies have proven this. It's poor risk communication from the government that people are still thinking "2 metres=safe".

    We still don't know whether there is any increased risk from outdoors transmission, although I've started wearing a mask when being approached by ignorant non-distancing joggers because of a higher chance of droplets and more deeply exhaled particles.

    Are there any "studies" about those Covid positives who did not require Hospitalization,or indeed even require a Doctors visit...

    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

    169,170 Confirmed Cases...1,848 Hospital cases...

    Is there anybody referencing the other 167,322 to see how they're gettin on....as in,are they working an stuff ?

    https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/managing-coronavirus-at-home/treat-symptoms-at-home.html
    There is no specific treatment for COVID-19 (coronavirus). But many of the symptoms of COVID-19 can be treated at home. About 80% of people can recover at home and without needing to go to hospital.

    On a broader scale,it seems the World Population is roaring ahead Covid or not !

    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

    Births outstripping deaths by c.2.5 to 1

    Population growth annual...3,355,000 approx.

    We appear to have a bit to go before we experience extinction.

    Oh well....With so much information being peddled,one can sometimes experience overload ?


    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    Charles Mackay (1812-1889)



  • #6180
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Stheno wrote: »
    It was clear to me well before Christmas that I could choose to eat out or have visitors to my house/ visit others

    You've said this a few times, but are you sure that was the actual advice?

    I can't find anything that suggests we should do one or the other for the month of December.


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  • #6181
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    You've said this a few times, but are you sure that was the actual advice?

    I can't find anything that suggests we should do one or the other for the month of December.

    It was the NPHET advice in the letter they sent, that wither you could open hospitality or allow household mixing

    Then throughout December there were regular updates telling people to limit socialising if they were going home/visiting for Christmas


This discussion has been closed.
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