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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #5972
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    We have a consistent trend and seem to have got a quicker handle on this surge better than our neighbors

    It will be interesting to see if we can crush the numbers into the hundreds or will we get stuck somewhere between 1000-1500 daily cases in February


  • #5973
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Colm Henry saying ''social distancing and restrictions in some form were likely for the rest of 2021 at least, until enough of the population could be vaccinated to grant general or herd immunity.''

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/further-year-of-covid-curbs-needed-to-protect-public-says-top-health-official-1.4460359


  • #5974
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Colm Henry saying ''social distancing and restrictions in some form were likely for the rest of 2021 at least, until enough of the population could be vaccinated to grant general or herd immunity.''

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/further-year-of-covid-curbs-needed-to-protect-public-says-top-health-official-1.4460359

    Get me to a beach on the costa for 3 months this summer so.

    I have a feeling after what happened around Christmas there is no hope for us this year.

    Government going to be excessively cautious and keep us locked up all year.


  • #5975
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    The March lockdown bought the health service a lot of time, how was it used?

    The health service (HSE) is also a function of government. When I speak of advice and heroic effort I am more talking of the footsoldiers rather than the generals.

    There are failures with in the health service executive, that also should have been addressed by Government, now and over many years previously.

    You can't argue both sides, in that the government didn't succeed in managing the situation because a critical function that they are responsible for, didn't perform as well as it should.

    Whatever the HSE does or doesn't do, is also part of their (Gov) responsibility.


  • #5976
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Good luck trying to keep the public onside for social distancing and restrictions once we have the nursing homes, hcw and those over 70 vaccinated


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  • #5977
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    Get me to a beach on the costa for 3 months this summer so.

    I have a feeling after what happened around Christmas there is no hope for us this year.

    Government going to be excessively cautious and keep us locked up all year.

    If the numbers a very low the government will give in to pressure. Its hard to justify a lockdown or severe restrictions if numbers are low.


  • #5978
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Good luck trying to keep the public onside for social distancing and restrictions once we have the nursing homes, hcw and those over 70 vaccinated

    Yeah. I think once that has happened we will he living with the restrictions we had over the summer.


  • #5979
    Sammy2012
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,319 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Carlowgirl wrote: »
    The HSE have advised that I am not a close contact because all though I am sharing space it's not for two hours at a time. I can't designate myself a close contact I have to go to work unless one of the people designate me a close contact. I am all for shops being closed in a bid to get this under control but it baffles me that on one hand they are staying stay home and on the other they are saying oh you can't get it unless it's face to face contact or sharing space for two continuous hours.

    2 hours?! What happened to 15 minutes?


  • #5980
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Good luck trying to keep the public onside for social distancing and restrictions once we have the nursing homes, hcw and those over 70 vaccinated

    At that stage, I can't blame people for wanting to get on with their lives.


  • #5981
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    Yeah. I think once that has happened we will he living with the restrictions we had over the summer.
    By September, there'll be very few restrictions. Pubs will be open by then, if not way sooner.

    There'll be a level of caution goin into next Winter; fear of the unknown. But unless there is any data to indicate that the vaccines aren't holding, there will be no plan to go into new phases of restrictions.


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  • #5982
    Lemonzero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26 ✭Lemonzero


    Passed by a dublin city playground today. Totally packed.Lots of groups of teenagers together as well.no comparison to first lockdown.dont know they are going to get the cases numbers way down.and thats before the variant is considered


  • #5983
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Good luck trying to keep the public onside for social distancing and restrictions once we have the nursing homes, hcw and those over 70 vaccinated

    I think people won't have much a say in terms of what restrictions are in place really, as will be government's call at the end of the day unless there's significant public opposition and even then no guarantee they'd change it as result of it.

    It's not like the virus will disappear overnight either once those groups are vaccinated so think messaging will be consistent. Like with all the measures so far, it will be people's personal decision whether they do or not I guess.


  • #5984
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Good luck trying to keep the public onside for social distancing and restrictions once we have the nursing homes, hcw and those over 70 vaccinated

    From rte
    NEWS  Brexit Covid-19 Ireland World Business Politics Nuacht RTÉ Investigates Programmes

    Concerns hospitality sector will not reopen until after Easter

    Updated / Saturday, 16 Jan 2021 15:41

    The current restrictions are due to be reviewed on 30 January

    By Mary Regan

    Political Reporter

    There is growing expectation that the re-opening of the hospitality sector will not begin until after Easter at the very earliest.

    Representatives from the hospitality sector met a number of Government ministers yesterday and were left with the sense that the easing of restrictions will take longer than previously expected.

    The current restrictions are due to be reviewed on 30 January and a sector-specific approach to reopening the economy is now favoured with the initial focus on construction followed by non-essential retail.

    The Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe, and Minister for Enterprise, Leo Varadkar, and Minister for Tourism, Catherine Martin, met with representatives from the hospitality and tourism sectors yesterday.

    While the ministers were careful not to give any specific timelines for reopening, representatives were left with no expectation that they will reopen at the end of March with many expecting a re-opening closer to the summer.

    Some 17% of the population is expected to be vaccinated by the end of March - including healthcare workers, care home residents and staff and people over 70.

    This figure would fall far short of what would be needed to reopen restaurants or pubs.


  • #5985
    RandomViewer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    If the numbers a very low the government will give in to pressure. Its hard to justify a lockdown or severe restrictions if numbers are low.

    But if the numbers are only low because of the restrictions and will rise rapidly if eased too soon, I think there would need to be a month or so of low numbers to even consider easing and even then maybe on a county by county case ,


  • #5986
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    seamus wrote: »
    By September, there'll be very few restrictions. Pubs will be open by then, if not way sooner.

    There'll be a level of caution goin into next Winter; fear of the unknown. But unless there is any data to indicate that the vaccines aren't holding, there will be no plan to go into new phases of restrictions.

    Henry seems to be associating with the herd immunity needed from vaccines. Say if we have 70% done by September it would be good going.

    But I wouldn't think it means the level of restrictions we have now, but couldn't see thousands being able to gather for gigs and matches before the Autumn at the earliest if not next year say.


  • #5987
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,449 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I think people won't have much a say in terms of what restrictions are in place really, as will be government's call at the end of the day unless there's significant public opposition and even then no guarantee they'd change it as result of it.

    It's not like the virus will disappear overnight either once those groups are vaccinated so think messaging will be consistent. Like with all the measures so far, it will be people's personal decision whether they do or not I guess.

    A little irresponsible though for Henry to come out with those comments when in reality he doesn't really know. Nobody really knows, he can have an opinion, we all can but doesn't mean its fact. With the vast vast majority of people vaccinated over the summer there'll be little appetite for restrictions, thats just the reality of it.


  • #5988
    Marty Bird
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Good luck trying to keep the public onside for social distancing and restrictions once we have the nursing homes, hcw and those over 70 vaccinated

    Exactly if all the high risk groups are done which its the most serious too why have restrictions on those that they have said from the beginning is only a mild dose and you won’t be in danger from it.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • #5989
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,978 ✭✭✭Russman


    I honestly think there’s a slightly misdirected take on getting “the vulnerable” vaccinated. Of course it’s absolutely the priority and will save lives, but 1 in 3 people in ICU is under 65 according to Ronan Glynn the other day. I really don’t think it will be a lightbulb moment as there’s every danger of numbers of younger people could potentially have the system under pressure if we opened up with only the vulnerable vaccinated.


  • #5990
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Stheno wrote: »
    From rte

    Varadkar mentioned he didn't see significant easing of restrictions until ICU figures were at least 50 or below. Say it's a case of once bitten, twice shy. And with vaccinations being rolled out and new variants they will probably be more cautious than before.


  • #5991
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    A little irresponsible though for Henry to come out with those comments when in reality he doesn't really know. Nobody really knows, he can have an opinion, we all can but doesn't mean its fact. With the vast vast majority of people vaccinated over the summer there'll be little appetite for restrictions, thats just reality.
    Underpromise and overdeliver ;)


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  • #5992
    Marty Bird
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Henry seems to be associating with the herd immunity needed from vaccines. Say if we have 70% done by September it would be good going.

    But I wouldn't think it means the level of restrictions we have now, but couldn't see thousands being able to gather for gigs and matches before the Autumn at the earliest if not next year say.

    According to the breakdown I’ve seen if all the high risk categories and HCWs and all those in high risk settings is 1.33 million if all are done no need to 70% to be vaccinated.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • #5993
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,449 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    seamus wrote: »
    Underpromise and overdeliver ;)

    A common theme in this country anyway


  • #5994
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    It is only 16 January and there is already a sense of fatigue out there this weekend.

    I think we have 4 weeks at very maximum where people will continue to comply with the spirit of getting numbers down.

    Beyond that, people will just not comply.


  • #5995
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Stheno wrote: »
    From rte

    Interesting but Easter is the 5th of April

    All those groups will be vaccinated by the end of March

    Whilst I can understand the government putting out holding info at the moment the 5th of April will mean restaurants and hospitality been closed for 3 months 2 weeks

    That will mean 3 months of general lockdown on the general public again

    Pressure will definitely come on the government at that stage especially with further lockdown fatigue setting in and better weather at that stage

    Reopening closer to Summer will not make sense economically


  • #5996
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    A little irresponsible though for Henry to come out with those comments when in reality he doesn't really know. Nobody really knows, he can have an opinion, we all can but doesn't mean its fact. With the vast vast majority of people vaccinated over the summer there'll be little appetite for restrictions, thats just the reality of it.

    I think it's probably a realistic long-term view from where we're at now. Lot of things could change between now and then and I'd expect the roll out of vaccines to be quicker in 2nd half of year especially with more vaccines approved and distributed.

    I don't think even with an optimistic timeframe vast majority will be vaccinated by summer but hopefully by autumn. I'm sure there won't be an appetite for restrictions but I'm not sure how much that will influence government and NPHET's decisions on it but who knows tbh. It's fairly early days so lot can change in few months.


  • #5997
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Marty Bird wrote: »
    According to the breakdown I’ve seen if all the high risk categories and HCWs and all those in high risk settings is 1.33 million if all are done no need to 70% to be vaccinated.

    At least 70% is estimated to be needed for herd immunity. It's not as easy as just vaccinating those most vulnerable to exposure unfortunately.


  • #5998
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    It is only 16 January and there is already a sense of fatigue out there this weekend.

    I think we have 4 weeks at very maximum where people will continue to comply with the spirit of getting numbers down.

    Beyond that, people will just not comply.

    I’m actually sensing the opposite based on some conference calls today. People seemed to be totally freaked out, disheartened and even depressed about what has happened.

    There was a sense, largely due to direct comparison with the U.K., that the vaccine rollout is far too slow and late. That the ball has been dropped badly on a whole load of issues and just a sense of depression from some people.

    A lot of businesses may not survive this wave.

    Two people told me they’re no longer really going out, even to the supermarket.

    I think we need to be aware of how disheartening what has just happened is. The light at the end of the tunnel seems further away and we have effectively reset the clock to April.

    A lot of people aren’t very happy about it. I think it could result in just disillusionment rather than rule breaking.

    Also there’s little or no confidence in the HSE, which is based on most people’s experience of interacting with it over the years. So that’s feeding into a lot of negativity.

    Throw in Brexit and the Magdalene / Mother & Baby Home scheme and the fact that Ireland’s coverage abroad was a mixture of plague island & misogyny and people trafficking, a lot of people just are quite down.


  • #5999
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Interesting but Easter is the 5th of April

    All those groups will be vaccinated by the end of March

    Whilst I can understand the government putting out holding info at the moment the 5th of April will mean restaurants and hospitality been closed for 3 months 2 weeks

    That will mean 3 months of general lockdown on the general public again

    Pressure will definitely come on the government at that stage especially with further lockdown fatigue setting in and better weather at that stage

    Reopening closer to Summer will not make sense economically

    I think it's as much about the level of cases as how many are vaccinated. Hopefully cases start to go down rapidly. I think as other posters have said it could well be a hope for the best, prepare for the worst messaging.

    All along it's been restrictions to X date then X comes and it's Y etc so that strategy probably not as effective as it once was. Maybe it's better to give a realistic timeframe and hopefully shoten than constantly extend it when dog's on the street know it will be too.


  • #6000
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Very fair point

    Realistic timeframe is the problem though

    Last time we were amongst the slowest in Europe to open up

    I don't think there will be much patience for a long drawn out opening up of society when the most vulnerable are vaccinated


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  • #6001
    Datacore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 178 ✭✭Datacore


    I’m not sure how it will pan out, but I’m already hearing friends of mine talking about emigrating as soon as it’s possible to and all sorts of stuff like this all over again.

    I’m not sure where to, but I think it’s just their default reaction to being frustrated with the status quo here.


This discussion has been closed.
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