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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #5942
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,463 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    3063 positive swabs, 12.2% positivity on 25,114 tests.
    - Saturday, January 16th 2021


  • #5943
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Ironhead93 wrote: »
    To play devils advocate, the government were overly restrictive throughout the the summer when our cases were consistently double digits, same old 'next 2 weeks are critical blah blah' no matter where the numbers were. Many people were certainly irresponsible and socialised too much during the holiday season but you cannot realistically expect widespread compliance after NPHET continuously crying wolf and the public having lived more restrictively than anywhere in Europe for 9 months at that point.

    I think the government would have moved into level 5 in Jan regardless of what happened over Christmas, everyone I talked to expected a full lockdown looming and just wanted to make hay while possible. Point is the blame doesn't fall entirely on one side. You cannot stop human nature indefinitely pandemic or not, people will socialise it's inevitable.




    Nobody cried wolf. They simply advised what people needed to do and also warned what would happen if people did not do those things.
    Numbers were low when people followed that advice. When they didn't, the numbers shot up.



    To use your wolf analogy, suppose a wolf appears and the "expert" warns the farmer he needs to lock his sheep inside his shed at night. He does this every night. After 6 months he gets complacent and lazy. The expert is still warning him that the wolf is still out prowling every night and he needs to take precautions. Farmer doesn't bother his hole anymore and the wolf gets in and kills the sheep.



    Farmer blames the expert and says "well it's your fault because if I hadn't gotten bored doing it for 6 months when no sheep were killed then I might have done it last night".


  • #5944
    SuperRabbit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭SuperRabbit


    Carlowgirl wrote: »
    And I rang the HSE and they have no problem with me not self isolating. I said that if I was sharing a house with strangers I'd have to self isolate but spending all day with these people doesn't matter..


    self-isolating means locking yourself in your room and not coming out except to go to the toilet. You should limit your movements and contacts but you don't need to confine yourself in your room.. you can if you want though!

    Wait i just reread what you said EIGHT CASES in work,; they obviously all caught it off each other.. yeah you are a close contact you should stay in your room and they should have told you that :(

    But they wouldn't have tested you unless / until you have symptoms, they don't have the capacity to test close contacts at the moment


  • #5945
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    landofthetree wrote: »
    3063 positive swabs, 12.2% positivity on 25,114 tests.
    - Saturday, January 16th 2021

    Decent numbers. Lowest daily positivity rate since 27th December


  • #5946
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    Nobody cried wolf. They simply advised what people needed to do and also warned what would happen if people did not do those things.
    Numbers were low when people followed that advice. When they didn't, the numbers shot up.



    To use your wolf analogy, suppose a wolf appears and the "expert" warns the farmer he needs to lock his sheep inside his shed at night. He does this every night. After 6 months he gets complacent and lazy. The expert is still warning him that the wolf is still out prowling every night and he needs to take precautions. Farmer doesn't bother his hole anymore and the wolf gets in and kills the sheep.



    Farmer blames the expert and says "well it's your fault because if I hadn't gotten bored doing it for 6 months when no sheep were killed then I might have done it last night".

    You forgot the government undermining the expert in your example:

    NdQTPBC.jpg

    :pac:


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  • #5947
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    landofthetree wrote: »
    3063 positive swabs, 12.2% positivity on 25,114 tests.
    - Saturday, January 16th 2021
    One stat means nothing in isolation, but it's nice to see low positivity on high testing numbers.


  • #5948
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Drumpot wrote: »
    You forgot the government undermining the expert in your example:

    :pac:



    Well they do of course bear some responsibility. But
    Number 1. If someone doesn't understand the difference between politics and science, then there is probably a limited amount that you can do for them. The politicians had other people crying to them and trying to influence them as well as playing to their electorate to some degree
    Number 2. The government didn't tell people to go out and congregate at shopping centres or parties


  • #5949
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,057 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Carlowgirl wrote: »
    I am completely disillusioned with the HSE guidelines. There were eight cases in my work last week and I am not deemed a close contact. Obviously community transmission doesn't exist. Being in the same office as people doesn't matter or using the same bathrooms etc. Ifwe can only get covid from face to face contact or being in the same small space for two hours then why are the shops closed. It is a complete contradiction. I am probably carrying this disease now and cant get a test. It just baffles me. Shops closed cos running and out to get something will transmit virus, spend all day with 8 infect people won't transmit virus. I'm completely fed up now sacrificing spending time with family for a job that doesn't care about me.

    I follow a few of the public health doctors on twitter and they have been saying for a few weeks now that they don’t have resources to investigate and trace all outbreaks and are focussing on high risk environments like residential settings. If you’re a close contact it’s up to you to restrict your movements for 14 days after exposure. Hope you’ll be ok.


  • #5950
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Drumpot wrote: »
    You forgot the government undermining the expert in your example:

    NdQTPBC.jpg

    :pac:

    You forget the government has more than one narrow remit to deal with.
    Nphet has a narrow focus. Covid nothing more. The government has many other factors to contend with.


  • #5951
    Carlowgirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 296 ✭✭Carlowgirl


    SuperRabbit wrote: »
    I wouldn't say community transmission doesn't exist, there are way too many people who genuinely can't have gotten it any other way... but absolutely it's not as prevalent as untraced close contacts. The thing is we can see from other countries where they do lots of tracing and trace the origin of every case that yeah, community transmission is a thing

    There aren't enough tests for everyone at the moment, that's why the numbers have "plateaued", even if you were a close contact you wouldn't be tested.

    The HSE have advised that I am not a close contact because all though I am sharing space it's not for two hours at a time. I can't designate myself a close contact I have to go to work unless one of the people designate me a close contact. I am all for shops being closed in a bid to get this under control but it baffles me that on one hand they are staying stay home and on the other they are saying oh you can't get it unless it's face to face contact or sharing space for two continuous hours.


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  • #5952
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    You forget the government has more than one narrow remit to deal with.
    Nphet has a narrow focus. Covid nothing more. The government has many other factors to contend with.




    The unfortunate thing, and you can kinda see it on the thread, if the government pushed down really hard and the result was that there was only a small number of cases, then people would decry them and say that there was no need -> No more votes!


    So they are trying to aim for a mythical sweet spot in the middle. So that people can do some things, but that the resulting numbers will not overrun everything. And in aiming for that mythical sweet spot they need to be able to predict "ok, we're giving them this inch. How many miles are they going to run".


  • #5953
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    if the government pushed down really hard and the result was that there was only a small number of cases, then people would decry them and say that there was no need -> No more votes!

    Polls indicated that the public were on the side of harsher restrictions.
    It was only certain lobby groups that were appealing for relaxation of measures (i.e. opening for business)


  • #5954
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Polls indicated that the public were on the side of harsher restrictions.
    It was only certain lobby groups that were appealing for relaxation of measures (i.e. opening for business)




    The lobby groups, and those against restrictions, make louder noises.



    It is still visible in these threads. People virulently (pun intended) against the idea of lockdowns.


  • #5955
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,178 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    You forget the government has more than one narrow remit to deal with.
    Nphet has a narrow focus. Covid nothing more. The government has many other factors to contend with.

    I don't think that's necessarily true. The idea that health restrictions are always at odds with other issues like economic ones is debatable. And covid touches on every part of society as we can see, high cases inevitably lead to other medical treatments being suspended, businesses closed, schools closed etc.

    I think it's fairly simplistic to see these being closed as a result of restrictions and not a consequence of trying to protect health service while cases are so high.

    Would be interested to know how many businesses would have been happy to open for 3 weeks at Christmas and then be closed for at least 2/3 months in the new year for example.

    If we're ruling out zero covid, no reason why huge supression wasn't possible. We were there in the summer so opening when cases were so high at Christmas was always a massive risk.

    I think the balancing the economy all along unfortunately led to worst of both worlds, extended restrictions but not proper enforcing all along and then not really getting the benefit of the restrictions.

    Absolutely daft that basic things like PCR tests only brought in now and finally NI and Ireland on same page (except for flights from GB). Can't understand how that wasn't brought in sooner and shows complete lack of political leadership imo.


  • #5956
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Polls indicated that the public were on the side of harsher restrictions.
    It was only certain lobby groups that were appealing for relaxation of measures (i.e. opening for business)

    I saw a poll that stated that 67% were in favour of harsher restrictions. 37% which I assume contained a number of don’t ‘knows’ weren’t That’s a sizeable number who had no wish for harsher restrictions . I doubt they would have respected further restrictions at Christmas. It was a balancing act. Personally responsibility is a factor which seems to be dismissed by many in an attempt to attach blame to one specific entity.


  • #5957
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I don't think that's necessarily true. The idea that health restrictions are always at odds with other issues like economic ones is debatable. And covid touches on every part of society as we can see, high cases inevitably lead to other medical treatments being suspended, businesses closed, schools closed etc.

    I think it's fairly simplistic to see these being closed as a result of restrictions and not a consequence of trying to protect health service while cases are so high.

    Would be interested to know how many businesses would have been happy to open for 3 weeks at Christmas and then be closed for at least 2/3 months in the new year for example.

    If we're ruling out zero covid, no reason why huge supression wasn't possible. We were there in the summer so opening when cases were so high at Christmas was always a massive risk.

    I think the balancing the economy all along unfortunately led to worst of both worlds, extended restrictions but not proper enforcing all along and then not really getting the benefit of the restrictions.

    Absolutely daft that basic things like PCR tests only brought in now and finally NI and Ireland on same page (except for flights from GB). Can't understand how that wasn't brought in sooner and shows complete lack of political leadership imo.

    I have no idea what people thought was going to happen when before the pre Christmas six week lockdown ended various commentators including Leo V. was saying a January lockdown was going to happen.
    I still believe closing non essential retail 6 weeks before the busiest time of the year thus creating a narrow period of pent up demand was beyond stupid and one of the more ridiculous demands from Holohan.
    Did people have to go mad absolutely not but the environment and conditions were created by both government and Nphet.


  • #5958
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    You forget the government has more than one narrow remit to deal with.
    Nphet has a narrow focus. Covid nothing more. The government has many other factors to contend with.


    How do you think that is working out for them at the moment?

    In my humble opinion, their attempt to contend with the many other factors has failed badly and it is only the medical adivce and associated practical efforts (heroic healthcare efforts, vaccination programme) that are currently offering us any hope.

    The most important thing that the gov could do was to buy time to let the health side work through the issue... and they didn't do it. Now the other factors that had to be considered are screwed up anyway, but more people have paid for the attempt to balance the additional remit, with their lives.

    I know the gov has a part to play in vaccination programmes etc, but I can't give them too much credit for doing a bit of good when their other actions hurtle us backwards.


  • #5959
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    Once they think of lifting restrictions again and opening retail the same pent up pressure cooker will happen again
    They should consider opening click and collect for a few weeks first to avoid the surge of people in shops


  • #5960
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    You forget the government has more than one narrow remit to deal with.
    Nphet has a narrow focus. Covid nothing more. The government has many other factors to contend with.

    Having more then one parameter to manage doesn’t absolve the government of its responsibility for ramifications of the decisions they made/make.

    The message the government sent to the people particularly by the decision to lower restrictions (and hint at January lockdown) in the way they did has led us to where we are now. With leaky Leo pandering to certain crowds, he’s doing a lot of damage for his own benefit.

    The shock of Ireland’s numbers around the world as our rise in cases went off the charts was the result of how our government managed to balance things in December. Could we actually of managed December any worse?


  • #5961
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Carlowgirl wrote: »
    The HSE have advised that I am not a close contact because all though I am sharing space it's not for two hours at a time. I can't designate myself a close contact I have to go to work unless one of the people designate me a close contact. I am all for shops being closed in a bid to get this under control but it baffles me that on one hand they are staying stay home and on the other they are saying oh you can't get it unless it's face to face contact or sharing space for two continuous hours.
    Could you have been working from home? You mentioned that are working in an office building. I’d be more annoyed with your employer than at the HSE (unless your employer is the HSE!) if you could have been working from home.

    I get your frustration about the inconsistencies re shops not being open due to risk of transmission in that environment but should your office building have been open either? HSE/NPHET aren’t responsible for that particular decision to remain open if not one of their premises. (They are responsible for having many of their own admin staff in offices who could be at home but hampered in that themselves due to their antique IT.)

    Hopefully you were socially distanced and wearing a mask and so you are not a close contact. Of those eight, maybe they did not follow guidelines, were complacent or were socialising outside work. Of course, guidelines are not an absolute protection but not designating you as a close contact is consistent with the close contact definition in hospitals and other workplaces. Based on what you have posted, I think you would be considered a casual contact.


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  • #5962
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    How do you think that is working out for them at the moment?

    In my humble opinion, their attempt to contend with the many other factors has failed badly and it is only the medical adivce and associated practical efforts (heroic healthcare efforts, vaccination programme) that are currently offering us any hope.

    The most important thing that the gov could do was to buy time to let the health side work through the issue... and they didn't do it. Now the other factors that had to be considered are screwed up anyway, but more people have paid for the attempt to balance the additional remit, with their lives.

    I know the gov has a part to play in vaccination programmes etc, but I can't give them too much credit for doing a bit of good when their other actions hurtle us backwards.

    The March lockdown bought the health service a lot of time, how was it used?


  • #5963
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Having more then one parameter to manage doesn’t absolve the government of its responsibility for ramifications of the decisions they made/make.

    The message the government sent to the people particularly by the decision to lower restrictions (and hint at January lockdown) in the way they did has led us to where we are now. With leaky Leo pandering to certain crowds, he’s doing a lot of damage for his own benefit.

    The shock of Ireland’s numbers around the world as our rise in cases went off the charts was the result of how our government managed to balance things in December. Could we actually of managed December any worse?

    So Nphet or the populace bear no responsibility, just Micheal and Leo?


  • #5964
    Carlowgirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 296 ✭✭Carlowgirl


    majcos wrote: »
    Could you have been working from home? You mentioned that are working in an office building. I’d be more annoyed with your employer than at the HSE (unless your employer is the HSE!) if you could have been working from home.

    I get your frustration about the inconsistencies re shops not being open due to risk of transmission in that environment but should your office building have been open either? HSE/NPHET aren’t responsible for that particular decision to remain open if not one of their premises. (They are responsible for having many of their own admin staff in offices who could be at home but hampered in that themselves due to their antique IT.)

    Hopefully you were socially distanced and wearing a mask and so you are not a close contact. Of those eight, maybe they did not follow guidelines, were complacent or were socialising outside work. Of course, guidelines are not an absolute protection but not designating you as a close contact is consistent with the close contact definition in hospitals and other workplaces. Based on what you have posted, I think you would be considered a casual contact.

    Ya I get that I'm a casual contact but I'm a casual contact every day. I've never been offered the option to work at home. It just completely contradicts the community transmission advice


  • #5965
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    Once they think of lifting restrictions again and opening retail the same pent up pressure cooker will happen again
    They should consider opening click and collect for a few weeks first to avoid the surge of people in shops

    I have no idea where you live, but I live in the Midlands and anytime I was in my home town numbers in shops that I saw were controlled . Leaving shops open with longer opening hours if desired would have avoided crowding.
    The only tool government and Nphet seem to have in the tool box is a large hammer.


  • #5966
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    So Nphet or the populace bear no responsibility, just Micheal and Leo?

    As I’ve said, the government try to give the people what they want and December their prioritised giving the people what they wanted. As a society we are all responsible for December. NEPHET didn’t advise us to open up like we did. NEPHET didn’t tell us to socialise and celebrate Christmas, quite the opposite, but we didn’t listen. That’s where responsibility lies, on every one of us in some form.


  • #5967
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    I have no idea where you live, but I live in the Midlands and anytime I was in my home town numbers in shops that I saw were controlled . Leaving shops open with longer opening hours if desired would have avoided crowding.
    The only tool government and Nphet seem to have in the tool box is a large hammer.


    Within driving distance of three large shopping centres in Dublin
    They were jam packed and cafes in them full of shoppers . One had controls on the entrances but two of them absolutely no control of people entering from multiple entrances


  • #5968
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Falcarragh was heaving today


  • #5969
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,131 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Drumpot wrote: »
    As I’ve said, the government try to give the people what they want and December their prioritised giving the people what they wanted. As a society we are all responsible for December. NEPHET didn’t advise us to open up like we did. NEPHET didn’t tell us to socialise and celebrate Christmas, quite the opposite, but we didn’t listen. That’s where responsibility lies, on every one of us in some form.
    Actually NHPET recommended house visits earlier than the 18th December.


  • #5970
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Carlowgirl wrote: »
    Ya I get that I'm a casual contact but I'm a casual contact every day. I've never been offered the option to work at home. It just completely contradicts the community transmission advice
    It doesn’t contradict the community transmission advice/definition of close contacts if your workplace was following the guidelines in terms of spaced desks, wearing masks, etc.

    The close contact definition is the same in the community and in other workplaces. HCWs spend 13 hours day after day beside each other in areas of hospitals where they are not wearing full PPE but just face masks and trying to maintain distance when possible which is not often possible and they are not considered close contacts of each other if (actually more likely when) one of them later tests positive. Same applies to workers in factories etc.

    Maybe definition of close contact is wrong but what you are being told is the same in community. Shame you and all your colleagues weren’t working from home if it was possible. That is what is supposed to be happening at the moment.


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  • #5971
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Carlowgirl wrote: »
    Ya I get that I'm a casual contact but I'm a casual contact every day. I've never been offered the option to work at home. It just completely contradicts the community transmission advice




    Sorry. I misread your earlier post. For some reason I thought you were designated a close contact but not told to isolate.




    It's a tough one alright. If you are going to go in then just mask up and do your best and hope for the best. If you get any symptoms then ring your doc immediately. The employer should really be telling you to stay at home (paid) for a few days. They will suffer if you bring it in!


This discussion has been closed.
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