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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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Comments

  • #5732
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,031 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Cases exploding but with lower hospitalisations as all the vulnerable have been vaccinated is a VERY different scenario

    And of course has a very different weighting when set aside the social and long term public health costs of the restrictions

    Wrong. If we keep things open with cases exploding the sheer numbers of infected people will overrun the hospitals regardless of whether the vulnerable are vaccinated or not. It’s a numbers game.


  • #5733
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    All UK travel corridors to close from Monday to keep out new variants
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-all-uk-travel-corridors-to-close-from-monday-in-face-of-new-coronavirus-variants-12188891

    If you just read the first paragraph of the article it will do wonders for your comprehension


  • #5734
    one armed dwarf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 929 ✭✭✭one armed dwarf


    Datacore wrote: »
    The virus cases multiply exponentially, so very quickly systems become swamped.

    Look at what happened in the USA and they have a lot of ICU capacity, on paper anyway. It once the cases peaked their hospitals were quite quickly swamped.

    If you’ve 2X a small number, it’s still a small number. It’s like saying you’re going to be better at stopping a flood because you’ve 3 sand bags while someone else as 1 sandbag. If it’s the width of the Shannon, it’s all a bit of an irrelevance.

    This is such a basic and easy to understand fact that it's hard to know whether or not the people in the 'relaxation' thread are just ignoring it on purpose to deflect responsibility elsewhere. We're taught about exponents at secondary school, it's not calculus.

    Like if we doubled our capacity, how much time would that really buy us if the r0 number was through the roof? The growth rate is the problem.


  • #5735
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    The UK is looking towards Easter to have all the vulnerable vaccinated, Schools are likely to remain closed until then with exams already cancelled.

    France has introduced curfews from 6 pm, Germany similar, and talks of April being the likely date for restrictions to be removed.

    yet some people think Ireland is in a better position?


  • #5736
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    jackboy wrote: »
    Wrong. If we keep things open with cases exploding the sheer numbers of infected people will overrun the hospitals regardless of whether the vulnerable are vaccinated or not. It’s a numbers game.

    Well, I don’t agree with you. I’m certainly going to enjoy my summer

    I guess we will see in the UK. They’ll have vulnerable people and over 60s, maybe even over 50s, done in March, and the opening up will start. So we’ll see how the balance shifts


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  • #5737
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Stheno wrote: »
    If you just read the first paragraph of the article it will do wonders for your comprehension


    So you think the UK isn't tightening up their measures for those travelling into the country? Do you think it's going to be business as normal?


  • #5738
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    So you think the UK isn't tightening up their measures for those travelling into the country? Do you think it's going to be business as normal?

    Have you read the article behind the headline?


  • #5739
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Stheno wrote: »
    Have you read the article behind the headline?

    Yes, do you have a point?


  • #5740
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Well, I don’t agree with you

    I guess we will see in the UK. They’ll have vulnerable people and over 60s, maybe even over 50s, done in March, and the opening up will start. So we’ll see how the balance shifts

    How many non vulnerable cases a day do you think we can handle?

    1 thousand? 5 thousand? 10 thousand? Infinity?

    By handle I mean handle with the hse able to do non covid care. Our experience so far is that non covid care starts to stop around 30-50 people in icu and 300-500 hospital beds occupied.

    This may change if we dont have to worry about infected staff.

    My guess is that if the vulnerable and the health care workers are vaccinated we can see 1500-2000 cases a day as a comfortable level.


  • #5741
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Yes, do you have a point?

    Did you miss the line where they say all travellers into the UK must have a negative test before flying and then isolate for a period after arrival?

    So people can fly into the UK

    Similar thing as is coming into place for here


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  • #5742
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,131 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    The UK is looking towards Easter to have all the vulnerable vaccinated, Schools are likely to remain closed until then with exams already cancelled.

    France has introduced curfews from 6 pm, Germany similar, and talks of April being the likely date for restrictions to be removed.

    yet some people think Ireland is in a better position?

    Will schools even open back up this side of the summer in the UK?

    Feeling could be the same here. Once we hit march they will think what's the point at this stage as only 3 months out from the summer and Easter taking up 2 weeks of that.


  • #5743
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    If only we had tried a different way, along with Europe, Uk etc. if there had been any other way to approach this!!! Like fooking Australia, New Zealand did ten bloody months ago, this sh1tehow would not be where it is now. 10 months later getting with the program, hopefully we follow soon.
    I’ve family in Oz, nieces and nephews went back to school (currently enjoying summer hols), seeing friends and same with parents.
    I dont give a sh1te if they aren’t near countries like we are, it bloody worked. Yet now after almost a year countries wil finally wake up and do it. Would have worked out cheaper likely in the long run, let alone the health benefits for all.


  • #5744
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    pc7 wrote: »
    If only we had tried a different way, along with Europe, Uk etc. if there had been any other way to approach this!!! Like fooking Australia, New Zealand did ten bloody months ago, this sh1tehow would not be where it is now. 10 months later getting with the program, hopefully we follow soon.
    I’ve family in Oz, nieces and nephews went back to school (currently enjoying summer hols), seeing friends and same with parents.
    I dont give a sh1te if they aren’t near countries like we are, it bloody worked. Yet now after almost a year countries wil finally wake up and do it. Would have worked out cheaper likely in the long run, let alone the health benefits for all.



    And round we go again!


  • #5745
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Stheno wrote: »
    Did you miss the line where they say all travellers into the UK must have a negative test before flying and then isolate for a period after arrival?

    So people can fly into the UK

    Similar thing as is coming into place for here

    So you agree it's tougher measures then?

    You also ignore the headline,

    UK travel corridors to close from Monday to keep out new variants

    people will also have to immediately self-isolate on arrival for 10 days unless they have a negative test after five days.

    Sensible measures, and enough to either ensure safer travel into the UK or put people off traveling into the UK.

    Not no signs of things getting better though is it?


  • #5746
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    And round we go again!

    Indeed, how many threads on boards later, I think I was posting in the very first thread!! I really have had enough, the Irish and European response really has been poor and I don’t believe history will judge them well. As for northern Ireland and all the bullsh1t been spouted about borders and boll1x it could have been dealt with if the will was there.


  • #5747
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    How many non vulnerable cases a day do you think we can handle?

    1 thousand? 5 thousand? 10 thousand? Infinity?

    By handle I mean handle with the hse able to do non covid care. Our experience so far is that non covid care starts to stop around 30-50 people in icu and 300-500 hospital beds occupied.

    This may change if we dont have to worry about infected staff.

    My guess is that if the vulnerable and the health care workers are vaccinated we can see 1500-2000 cases a day as a comfortable level.

    I’m including health care workers when I refer to vaccinations of the vulnerable. SAGE think hospital load will fall 90% at this point and so, yes, we can handle numbers like that or even higher


  • #5748
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    pc7 wrote: »
    If only we had tried a different way, along with Europe, Uk etc. if there had been any other way to approach this!!! Like fooking Australia, New Zealand did ten bloody months ago, this sh1tehow would not be where it is now. 10 months later getting with the program, hopefully we follow soon.
    I’ve family in Oz, nieces and nephews went back to school (currently enjoying summer hols), seeing friends and same with parents.
    I dont give a sh1te if they aren’t near countries like we are, it bloody worked. Yet now after almost a year countries wil finally wake up and do it. Would have worked out cheaper likely in the long run, let alone the health benefits for all.

    Australia and NZ are not massively dependent on Roll on Roll off freight, and accompanied freight to keep their food supplies going, due to the distances involved, all their freight is coming in on container ships, to make that transition here would be a massive upheaval that the systems are not geared up for, there would be massive shortages of all manner of things in a very short timescale if the borders were sealed in Europe.

    The transition to all container traffic in and out of Ireland would overwhelm the systems at the ports, there's nowhere near enough berths or handling systems to suddenly massively increase the load, and most of the distribution points around the country would not be able for having significant numbers of containers held at them for loading, changes that significant would require huge investment, and take at least 12 months to put into place.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • #5749
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,031 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I’m including health care workers when I refer to vaccinations of the vulnerable. SAGE think hospital load will fall 90% at this point and so, yes, we can handle numbers like that

    Numbers like that cannot be achieved without lockdown. It’s pretty much impossible to have a level of restrictions that will give you a certain stabilised level of infections.


  • #5750
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    jackboy wrote: »
    Numbers like that cannot be achieved without lockdown. It’s pretty much impossible to have a level of restrictions that will give you a certain stabilised level of infections.

    No one thinks we are going to go into free for all, but level 2 or 3 will be sufficient. If SAGE are right and hospital admissions drop by 90% then there is no reason to ever again go above a 3 when the vulnerable have their shots


  • #5751
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    Hope they're all happy now.

    Gob****es.

    And shows its not a minority ruining it for everyone else.

    It's a sizeable portion of people.

    Too polite a word for them. It's pure wankery behaviour from a bunch of C U Next Tuesdays.,.


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  • #5752
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,031 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Deleted User wrote: »
    No one thinks we are going to go into free for all, but level 2 or 3 will be sufficient. If SAGE are right and hospital admissions drop by 90% then there is no reason to ever again go above a 3 when the vulnerable have their shots

    I do agree with this. An enforced level 3 after the vulnerable are vaccinated would have a decent chance of being sustainable.


  • #5753
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    Irish Steve wrote: »
    Australia and NZ are not massively dependent on Roll on Roll off freight, and accompanied freight to keep their food supplies going, due to the distances involved, all their freight is coming in on container ships, to make that transition here would be a massive upheaval that the systems are not geared up for, there would be massive shortages of all manner of things in a very short timescale if the borders were sealed in Europe.

    The transition to all container traffic in and out of Ireland would overwhelm the systems at the ports, there's nowhere near enough berths or handling systems to suddenly massively increase the load, and most of the distribution points around the country would not be able for having significant numbers of containers held at them for loading, changes that significant would require huge investment, and take at least 12 months to put into place.

    The Spanish variant came from travel, not from freight. If they wanted to dissuade travel they could have made made quarantine mandatory not scouts honour. Yes people may have tried circumvent rules and go through Belfast etc. but it’s better than what we did which was nothing.
    I’ve no row with anyone on boards, I’m fed up, annoyed and sad for families including mine who stuck to rules, Jesus I didn’t get to go to one of my grandparents funerals, I watched it online. We’ve a shower of spoofers on in the Dail, only thinking of themselves and getting re-elected. Not one is putting the country first.

    Rant over! ;) off to pour a large glass of wine


  • #5754
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    growleaves wrote: »
    Put that glass down. Wine is non-essential, citizen

    And I tell you, any of the assh0les saying ban alcohol, I will then riot!!! But with a mask.


  • #5755
    SuperRabbit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭SuperRabbit


    How exactly are Brazilians supposed to self-isolate? Yes, some of them are working as programmers for Google and can self isolate in a 5 star hotel if they like, but most of the Brazilian population are working in minimum wage jobs they are massively overqualified for (you aren't allowed to work in a profession on a student visa) and living in communal spaces, 20-40 people per apartment before the pandemic (I'm sure that's much better and less crowded now though).

    Still, how do you self-isolate when you are living in a flat with 10 other people and one bathroom and half of them are essential workers; working in supermarkets, in health care, delivering food, not allowed to stay home in level 5.

    If they are ordering all recently arrived Brazilians to self-isolate for 2 weeks I hope they are offering them hotel rooms, or that's not going to work.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0115/1190073-brazil-covid-variant/


  • #5756
    mcburns07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,404 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    pc7 wrote: »
    Indeed, how many threads on boards later, I think I was posting in the very first thread!! I really have had enough, the Irish and European response really has been poor and I don’t believe history will judge them well. As for northern Ireland and all the bullsh1t been spouted about borders and boll1x it could have been dealt with if the will was there.

    And North America, and South America. and India, and Russia,

    Only a handful have countries have managed to make a decent job of managing it. Ask yourself why that is.


  • #5757
    SuperRabbit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭SuperRabbit


    jackboy wrote: »
    I do agree with this. An enforced level 3 after the vulnerable are vaccinated would have a decent chance of being sustainable.


    level 3 without indoor dining seemed to keep the cases steady without the new variant, will it still work with the new variant?


  • #5758
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,031 ✭✭✭jackboy


    SuperRabbit wrote: »
    level 3 without indoor dining seemed to keep the cases steady without the new variant, will it still work with the new variant?

    Hard to know. We have never tried an enforced level 3.


  • #5759
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    SuperRabbit wrote: »
    level 3 without indoor dining seemed to keep the cases steady without the new variant, will it still work with the new variant?

    Tier 3 in the UK means pubs, restaurants are shut. No household mixing.
    Things like non essential retail and gyms remain open.

    That didn't work in parts of the UK, and it's credited to their new variant.


  • #5760
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,667 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    pc7 wrote: »
    If only we had tried a different way, along with Europe, Uk etc. if there had been any other way to approach this!!! Like fooking Australia, New Zealand did ten bloody months ago, this sh1tehow would not be where it is now. 10 months later getting with the program, hopefully we follow soon.
    I’ve family in Oz, nieces and nephews went back to school (currently enjoying summer hols), seeing friends and same with parents.
    I dont give a sh1te if they aren’t near countries like we are, it bloody worked. Yet now after almost a year countries wil finally wake up and do it. Would have worked out cheaper likely in the long run, let alone the health benefits for all.

    Yes its great to be in aus and nz. Not so great if you ever want to leave or see family abroad again, or if you're a citizen or resident trying to get back. They are in trouble if the vaccine doesn't actually stop transmission. They can never open up normally and keep covid out and stop it spreading if that is the case. It could be that the rest of the world is done with covid while Australia and nz are continually trying to control outbreaks due to lack of immunity in the population. I reckon we won't know what the best approach to this was for a couple of years.


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  • #5761
    ginoginelli
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,332 ✭✭✭ginoginelli


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    Yes its great to be in aus and nz. Not so great if you ever want to leave or see family abroad again, or if you're a citizen or resident trying to get back. They are in trouble if the vaccine doesn't actually stop transmission. They can never open up normally and keep covid out and stop it spreading if that is the case. It could be that the rest of the world is done with covid while Australia and nz are continually trying to control outbreaks due to lack of immunity in the population. I reckon we won't know what the best approach to this was for a couple of years.

    Oh ffs, what a load of rubbish.


This discussion has been closed.
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