FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 11-01-2021 08:40PM

GFS 12z operational almost done and it's not good.

BLIZZARD7 · 11-01-2021 08:48PM

GFS/P 12z gets close to but fails at delivering the mother of all easterlies, if that high could be centred just a bit further north, we would have sub -20c 850hpa air marching West across Europe towards us... they stall in Central Europe on this run

gfs-0-312.png?12

Given the Northern hemisphere synoptics on offer and the SSW in play, the potential for something great is there... makes for interesting viewing...

nacho libre · 11-01-2021 08:51PM

89F93CF6-2203-45E0-8152-2863B5430CB4.png.850b4968ff645ca82d68b9d776c4a688.png

BLIZZARD7 · 11-01-2021 08:55PM

The mean is lovely at +192 hrs too!

mcburns07 · 11-01-2021 09:02PM

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS 12z operational almost done and it's not good.

Go on.....

brookers · 11-01-2021 09:09PM

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

GFS/P 12z gets close to but fails at delivering the mother of all easterlies, if that high could be centred just a bit further north, we would have sub -20c 850hpa air marching West across Europe towards us... they stall in Central Europe on this run

Given the Northern hemisphere synoptics on offer and the SSW in play, the potential for something great is there... makes for interesting viewing...

pity we home schooling, will miss out on snow days!!!

Arduach · 11-01-2021 09:38PM

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Oh I am sure one would spring up.

One what?! Go on, we want you to say it

Just joking

Arduach · 11-01-2021 09:40PM

brookers wrote: »

pity we home schooling, will miss out on snow days!!!

We won't jinx it.

As they old saying goes 'Dont count your chickens all in the one basket'

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2021 09:42PM

All depends on the shortwave to the north west just southeast of Greenland between day 5 and 6 and whether it catches a ride southeast and how...

Far from certain this will work out as we would like it to but we are on the right track.

Meteorite58 · 11-01-2021 10:05PM

Wintry charts all right from the ECM, Jet taking a Southern route below Ireland having come down from a N to S direction and would look to pull down polar air, Greenland High set up and collapse of the Atlantic Ridge, much more open to wintry weather. Another couple of runs like this and gets more interesting for sure. Plenty of cold waiting in the wings.

prosaic · 11-01-2021 10:31PM

Call this thread Beast-enders. It always leaves you hanging, waiting for another episode.

TheMilkyPirate · 11-01-2021 11:37PM

18Z not a pretty sight shows how it can all go wrong. All hinges on those two lows South of Greenland. Hopefully the GFS will switch to the ECM outcome overnight

Gonzo · 11-01-2021 11:40PM

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

18Z not a pretty sight shows how it can all go wrong. All hinges on those two lows South of Greenland. Hopefully the GFS will switch to the ECM outcome overnight

it's even worse than the 12z so far, atlantic driven all the way to +258 hours. GFS is going to need major upgrades for tomorrow.

Artane2002 · 11-01-2021 11:47PM

Gonzo wrote: »

it's even worse than the 12z so far, atlantic driven all the way to +258 hours. GFS is going to need major upgrades for tomorrow.

it's an awful run, I can't believe 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic merging together created that horror show!

Gonzo · 11-01-2021 11:50PM

Artane2002 wrote: »

it's an awful run, I can't believe 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic merging together created that horror show!

It's pretty much a full on flip back to total zonality. If the 6z continues this trend after 2 poor GFS runs in a row then this could be a bust unless the GFS has lost the plot. We shall know for sure when in the morning and see does the GEM and ECM also backtrack on the cold spell.

nacho libre · 11-01-2021 11:51PM

image.png.ff5ff97c6e7340ed37d58c2f7b9b534e.png

The para is initially messy but gets there in the end with a Greenland High.

TheMilkyPirate · 11-01-2021 11:55PM

Artane2002 wrote: »

it's an awful run, I can't believe 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic merging together created that horror show!

Keep those two apart and it's a different story altogether.

Not a bad days model watching to be fair both the UKMO and ECM very similar at +144. Let's see what tomorrow brings

Billcarson · 11-01-2021 11:59PM

Gonzo wrote: »

It's pretty much a full on flip back to total zonality. If the 6z continues this trend after 2 poor GFS runs in a row then this could be a bust unless the GFS has lost the plot. We shall know for sure when in the morning and see does the GEM and ECM also backtrack on the cold spell.

With the gfs is though sometimes it can be the first to see a cold spell. Then it drops the idea before coming back to it again. Hopefully that will be the case this time too.

TheMilkyPirate · 12-01-2021 12:05AM

GFS para on the other hand is much better.

Is the para soon to become the operational, did I read that somewhere?

pad199207 · 12-01-2021 12:07AM

Artane2002 wrote: »

it's an awful run, I can't believe 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic merging together created that horror show!

I would give it till Friday to come back to the models. Time to let go of all this madness at the moment.

nacho libre · 12-01-2021 12:10AM

pad199207 wrote: »

I would give it till Friday to come back to the models. Time to let go of all this madness at the moment with the models.

A sensible suggestion, but it's too hard not to look.

sryanbruen · 12-01-2021 12:12AM

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

GFS para on the other hand is much better.

Is the para soon to become the operational, did I read that somewhere?

Yes but verification stats show it has had worse accuracy than the current operational run.

pad199207 · 12-01-2021 12:14AM

nacho libre wrote: »

A sensible suggestion, but it's too hard not to look.

I know but every downgrade on a single run is starting to make the winter seem like it’s over every single time, which is pure madness. So time out for a while. :rolleyes:

YanSno · 12-01-2021 12:18AM

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the 18z. Upper air
observation balloons are sent around 2am and 2pm. For the 6z and 12z data input.

nacho libre · 12-01-2021 12:19AM

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes but verification stats show it has had worse accuracy than the current operational run.

I thought as much when people were focusing on the old GFS. Still hopefully the para is right this time. I guess a lot maybe revealed in the morning if we see the ECM move towards the GFS. The ECM has better verification stats, but we have seen the GFS Trump( is it a bad word?) the ECM over the last month when it came to the last Cold Spell.

TheMilkyPirate · 12-01-2021 12:25AM

pad199207 wrote: »

I would give it till Friday to come back to the models. Time to let go of all this madness at the moment.

Ah but where's the fun in that, my favourite part of this hobby is model watching leading up to a potential cold spell.

It mostly leads to disappointment here in Ireland but that just makes the times it does come off even sweeter.

nacho libre · 12-01-2021 12:27AM

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Ah but where's the fun in that, my favourite part of this hobby is model watching leading up to a potential cold spell.

It mostly leads to disappointment here in Ireland but that just makes the times it does come off even sweeter.

Yes, and it's even more of a welcome distraction in these times.

Danno · 12-01-2021 12:58AM

nacho libre wrote: »

Nice to look at. Decent snow showers on that. None of this warm sector or marginality crap to contend with

Oh there will be warm sectors no doubt, but a -12c upper flow with a -7c warm sector makes no difference at all really. :cool:

Mount Vesuvius · 12-01-2021 01:20AM

Looks tasty for continuing Strat PV disruption, split on the way it seems And I like how the split is modelled, very tasty indeed, scandi anyone? ::D

https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1348784638668513280?s=19

nacho libre · 12-01-2021 01:36AM

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Looks tasty for continuing Strat PV disruption, split on the way it seems And I like how the split is modelled, very tasty indeed, scandi anyone? ::D

https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1348784638668513280?s=19

Thats good news alright. It would increase the odds for much of Februray being colder than normal.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST