FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

NMB

ECM looks ok?

Zogabomb

NMB wrote: »

ECM looks ok?

Day 9 looks so good to me, I want to go to Arklow to wake up @AuntySnow myself!

Edit: If I'm being picky, uppers could be better but if that played out, I'm sure they would follow!

bazlers

Yes ECM getting on board,
Thats an excellant sign. Time to unleash the frog soon....
Idgive it another couples days though but looking promising.

NMB

Downwelling well under way I’d say and 3 biggies in broad agreement- omg must remain calm. (Flippin Iberia)

Humberto Salazar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Everyone try to remain calm!

Yes, ECM is joining the party. Middle of next week, we'll need ski's to get anywhere...

icesnowfrost

Look at them uppers

bazlers

This is probably a very stupid thing to say considering any cold is about a week away...put if this cold spell does materialise it will be more than just a spell it will be quiet lengthy and add extra economic difficulties in this current climate (no pun intended)

But having said that this is a weather forum and we come here to enjoy it as such. So get excited people the rollercoaster is about to leave so jump on board.

icesnowfrost

Look at them uppers

Villain

Good morning and welcome to the ECM Rollercoaster, be warned if you get on at the top it can only go one way

igCorcaigh

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Look at them uppers

Rough guide to translate uppers to ground temp... subtract 8 to 10C?

sicknotexi

It's not time to be telling family and friends just yet but things looking promising. Some exciting week of model watching ahead though and I'm sure there will be ups and downs.

gerrybhoy

MT's forecast this morning gave me a tingle in my boxers

To paraphrase

What was looking as a 2-4 day 2nd cold spell is now looking like a week to two week

KingdomRushed

There certainly agreement now between the GFS and ECM to bring another cold snap in from next week. However I wouldn't count the chickens for a few more days. The potential is for snowier set ups than the last cold snap. Let's see how it evolves

Humberto Salazar

bazlers wrote: »

This is probably a very stupid thing to say considering any cold is about a week away...put if this cold spell does materialise it will be more than just a spell it will be quiet lengthy and add extra economic difficulties in this current climate (no pun intended)

But having said that this is a weather forum and we come here to enjoy it as such. So get excited people the rollercoaster is about to leave so jump on board.

Hell of a way to go before that, it just appears that the pieces are starting to knit together. As to the difficulties a possible severe spell will cause, well it's nature that determines it, not us nerdy weather geeks here. We just go with what's presented.

Humberto Salazar

sicknotexi wrote: »

It's not time to be telling family and friends just yet but things looking promising. Some exciting week of model watching ahead though and I'm sure there will be ups and downs.

No don't tell em yet, maybe hint at it coyly....

bazlers

I would actually change that up a bit, nothing is set in stone until all the models and Gaoth Laidir are in agreement.
Joking GL looking forward to your input.

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Rough guide to translate uppers to ground temp... subtract 8 to 10C?

At this time of the year, about 8c if its an easterly or north easterly as you're bringing cold thicknesses and a cold surface feed
Sub minus 10 850s could translate to ice days

Nqp15hhu

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Rough guide to translate uppers to ground temp... subtract 8 to 10C?

Depends on lapse rate. Could still be above freezing.

BLIZZARD7

A potentially historic cold spell showing across the model output this morning, caution needed due to it being well into FI still, but key developments are in the 120-144hr time frame at the moment... the SSW might just be doing it's job.

Nqp15hhu

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Depends on lapse rate. Could still be above freezing.

You can have sub zero at the surface with 850s of -3c if the surface air feed is cold enough
All theoretical but I'd be 100% confident if you had a week or more of some of the colder charts on offer lately,temps below zero all day would be achieved
Seen it many times in the 80s and of course in 2010

pauldry

Surely at worst its going to be a 2c to 5c cold event next week

However be cautious as there are a number of systems and high pressures areas needing to move where models are forecasting. Still a danger that this could all slide down the East.

pad199207

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

A potentially historic cold spell showing across the model output this morning, caution needed due to it being well into FI still, but key developments are in the 120-144hr time frame at the moment... the SSW might just be doing it's job.

Kermit must have given that mass

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

Surely at worst its going to be a 2c to 5c cold event next week

However be cautious as there are a number of systems and high pressures areas needing to move where models are forecasting. Still a danger that this could all slide down the East.

Don't know tbh as anything beyond 120 is theoretical
2 to 5c or nothing at all is the climatic form horse for every winter
The jury's out
Very cold air is very nearby so it wouldn't take much of a fluke for that to come a visiting would it?

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

A potentially historic cold spell showing across the model output this morning, caution needed due to it being well into FI still, but key developments are in the 120-144hr time frame at the moment... the SSW might just be doing it's job.

Billcarson could get his long awaited cold second half of January

The rollercoaster rages on.

Nqp15hhu

AuntySnow wrote: »

You can have sub zero at the surface with 850s of -3c if the surface air feed is cold enough
All theoretical but I'd be 100% confident if you had a week or more of some of the colder charts on offer lately,temps below zero all day would be achieved
Seen it many times in the 80s and of course in 2010

I am sure initially it would still be about 2-3c. It takes time for the cold air to filter down in these situations. The main reason is down to the Planetary Boundary Layer and the warmer ground.

When we had -8c 850hPa the other day we still managed a 2c high.

Nqp15hhu

pauldry wrote: »

Surely at worst its going to be a 2c to 5c cold event next week

However be cautious as there are a number of systems and high pressures areas needing to move where models are forecasting. Still a danger that this could all slide down the East.

I have a 4c high forecast for tomorrow. I would like something a little colder now to sustain low level snow.

John Hutton

As a layman, can I ask a sincere question. There are lots of (exciting/scary depending on your perspective) charts posted, immediately followed by a consensus opinion that the charts do not mean much at all and probably won't materialise. If this is the case, what is the point of these charts if they never/rarely materialise?

I'm not having a go at anyone here, obviously they have a point in the context of this thread and for discussion etc, but I mean why are they made in the first place?

bazlers

sryanbruen wrote: »

Billcarson could get his long awaited cold second half of January

The rollercoaster rages on.

Hi Sryanbruen, the SPV flipped westerly yesterday although quiet weak. Do you know if there will be further warmings soon?

TheMilkyPirate

John Hutton wrote: »

As a layman, can I ask a sincere question. There are lots of (exciting/scary depending on your perspective) charts posted, immediately followed by a consensus opinion that the charts do not mean much at all and probably won't materialise. If this is the case, what is the point of these charts if they never/rarely materialise?

I'm not having a go at anyone here, obviously they have a point in the context of this thread and for discussion etc, but I mean why are they made in the first place?

FI charts rarely do materialise exactly as shown but if you have cross model agreement on a trend for a few days you can usually start to take a bit more notice.

Nqp15hhu

John Hutton wrote: »

As a layman, can I ask a sincere question. There are lots of (exciting/scary depending on your perspective) charts posted, immediately followed by a consensus opinion that the charts do not mean much at all and probably won't materialise. If this is the case, what is the point of these charts if they never/rarely materialise?

I'm not having a go at anyone here, obviously they have a point in the context of this thread and for discussion etc, but I mean why are they made in the first place?

The charts represent one possible outcome. You need to look at the mean chart (average of all outcomes) to see where the model is in terms of reality.

I find that the GFS produces cold charts, mild charts, only to finally bring the cold charts back a few days before it occurs.

There may be some sort of cold spell with this, it may end up being shorter/milder or it could intensify.