FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

GFS 12z operational almost done and it's not good.

BLIZZARD7

GFS/P 12z gets close to but fails at delivering the mother of all easterlies, if that high could be centred just a bit further north, we would have sub -20c 850hpa air marching West across Europe towards us... they stall in Central Europe on this run





Given the Northern hemisphere synoptics on offer and the SSW in play, the potential for something great is there... makes for interesting viewing...

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7

The mean is lovely at +192 hrs too!

mcburns07

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS 12z operational almost done and it's not good.

Go on.....

brookers

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

GFS/P 12z gets close to but fails at delivering the mother of all easterlies, if that high could be centred just a bit further north, we would have sub -20c 850hpa air marching West across Europe towards us... they stall in Central Europe on this run





Given the Northern hemisphere synoptics on offer and the SSW in play, the potential for something great is there... makes for interesting viewing...

pity we home schooling, will miss out on snow days!!!

Arduach

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Oh I am sure one would spring up.

One what?! Go on, we want you to say it

Just joking

Arduach

brookers wrote: »

pity we home schooling, will miss out on snow days!!!

We won't jinx it.

As they old saying goes 'Dont count your chickens all in the one basket'

Kermit.de.frog

All depends on the shortwave to the north west just southeast of Greenland between day 5 and 6 and whether it catches a ride southeast and how...



Far from certain this will work out as we would like it to but we are on the right track.

Meteorite58

Wintry charts all right from the ECM, Jet taking a Southern route below Ireland having come down from a N to S direction and would look to pull down polar air, Greenland High set up and collapse of the Atlantic Ridge, much more open to wintry weather. Another couple of runs like this and gets more interesting for sure. Plenty of cold waiting in the wings.

prosaic

Call this thread Beast-enders. It always leaves you hanging, waiting for another episode.

TheMilkyPirate

18Z not a pretty sight shows how it can all go wrong. All hinges on those two lows South of Greenland. Hopefully the GFS will switch to the ECM outcome overnight

Gonzo

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

18Z not a pretty sight shows how it can all go wrong. All hinges on those two lows South of Greenland. Hopefully the GFS will switch to the ECM outcome overnight

it's even worse than the 12z so far, atlantic driven all the way to +258 hours. GFS is going to need major upgrades for tomorrow.

Artane2002

Gonzo wrote: »

it's even worse than the 12z so far, atlantic driven all the way to +258 hours. GFS is going to need major upgrades for tomorrow.

it's an awful run, I can't believe 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic merging together created that horror show!

Gonzo

Artane2002 wrote: »

it's an awful run, I can't believe 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic merging together created that horror show!

It's pretty much a full on flip back to total zonality. If the 6z continues this trend after 2 poor GFS runs in a row then this could be a bust unless the GFS has lost the plot. We shall know for sure when in the morning and see does the GEM and ECM also backtrack on the cold spell.

nacho libre

The para is initially messy but gets there in the end with a Greenland High.

TheMilkyPirate

Artane2002 wrote: »

it's an awful run, I can't believe 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic merging together created that horror show!

Keep those two apart and it's a different story altogether.

Not a bad days model watching to be fair both the UKMO and ECM very similar at +144. Let's see what tomorrow brings

Billcarson

Gonzo wrote: »

It's pretty much a full on flip back to total zonality. If the 6z continues this trend after 2 poor GFS runs in a row then this could be a bust unless the GFS has lost the plot. We shall know for sure when in the morning and see does the GEM and ECM also backtrack on the cold spell.

With the gfs is though sometimes it can be the first to see a cold spell. Then it drops the idea before coming back to it again. Hopefully that will be the case this time too.

TheMilkyPirate

GFS para on the other hand is much better.

Is the para soon to become the operational, did I read that somewhere?

pad199207

Artane2002 wrote: »

it's an awful run, I can't believe 2 areas of low pressure over the Atlantic merging together created that horror show!

I would give it till Friday to come back to the models. Time to let go of all this madness at the moment.

nacho libre

pad199207 wrote: »

I would give it till Friday to come back to the models. Time to let go of all this madness at the moment with the models.

A sensible suggestion, but it's too hard not to look.

sryanbruen

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

GFS para on the other hand is much better.

Is the para soon to become the operational, did I read that somewhere?

Yes but verification stats show it has had worse accuracy than the current operational run.

pad199207

nacho libre wrote: »

A sensible suggestion, but it's too hard not to look.

I know but every downgrade on a single run is starting to make the winter seem like it’s over every single time, which is pure madness. So time out for a while. :rolleyes:

YanSno

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the 18z. Upper air
observation balloons are sent around 2am and 2pm. For the 6z and 12z data input.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes but verification stats show it has had worse accuracy than the current operational run.

I thought as much when people were focusing on the old GFS. Still hopefully the para is right this time. I guess a lot maybe revealed in the morning if we see the ECM move towards the GFS. The ECM has better verification stats, but we have seen the GFS Trump( is it a bad word?) the ECM over the last month when it came to the last Cold Spell.

TheMilkyPirate

pad199207 wrote: »

I would give it till Friday to come back to the models. Time to let go of all this madness at the moment.

Ah but where's the fun in that, my favourite part of this hobby is model watching leading up to a potential cold spell.

It mostly leads to disappointment here in Ireland but that just makes the times it does come off even sweeter.

nacho libre

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Ah but where's the fun in that, my favourite part of this hobby is model watching leading up to a potential cold spell.

It mostly leads to disappointment here in Ireland but that just makes the times it does come off even sweeter.

Yes, and it's even more of a welcome distraction in these times.

Danno

nacho libre wrote: »

Nice to look at. Decent snow showers on that. None of this warm sector or marginality crap to contend with

Oh there will be warm sectors no doubt, but a -12c upper flow with a -7c warm sector makes no difference at all really. :cool:

Mount Vesuvius

Looks tasty for continuing Strat PV disruption, split on the way it seems And I like how the split is modelled, very tasty indeed, scandi anyone? ::D

https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1348784638668513280?s=19

nacho libre

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Looks tasty for continuing Strat PV disruption, split on the way it seems And I like how the split is modelled, very tasty indeed, scandi anyone? ::D

https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1348784638668513280?s=19

Thats good news alright. It would increase the odds for much of Februray being colder than normal.