The UK response - Part II - read OP

S.M.B. · 07-01-2021 06:06PM

Sudden Valley wrote: »

I think only New Zealand has successfully achieved a Zero Covid strategy every other country seems to achieve it only briefly in between the surges in numbers.
The UK seems to be suffering more than most due to government dithering on lockdowns but has got its vaccination programme appears to be spot on.

I guess I just fundamentally disagree that a zero covid strategy can only be deemed successful if it results in zero covid.

Back in the summer there was the analogy of testing targets and trying to get to mars but only reaching the moon. Would it be deemed a success? I think that analogy would be better applied to going beyond 12 months of merely flattening curves.

Professor Moriarty · 07-01-2021 06:13PM

Sudden Valley wrote: »

I think only New Zealand has successfully achieved a Zero Covid strategy every other country seems to achieve it only briefly in between the surges in numbers.
The UK seems to be suffering more than most due to government dithering on lockdowns but has got its vaccination programme appears to be spot on.

Yeah, I think that's where they went fundamentally wrong. Johnson afraid of unpopularity so he prevaricated instead of shutting the country down.

Joe_ Public · 07-01-2021 06:42PM

S.M.B. wrote: »

I guess I just fundamentally disagree that a zero covid strategy can only be deemed successful if it results in zero covid.

Back in the summer there was the analogy of testing targets and trying to get to mars but only reaching the moon. Would it be deemed a success? I think that analogy would be better applied to going beyond 12 months of merely flattening curves.

I agree entirely with what you are saying. But i think we have to question how effective a zero covid policy could be in places where the libertarian outlook holds such sway and where many still hold the likes of sweden up as an exemplar while countries who actually have dealt with it impressively get scant attention.

What those countries who have done well do best is expose the public health v economy argument the anti lockdown side has relentlessly pushed for the fallacy it has always been. The two were never in direct conflict at all and those who understood that have fared best while the half arsed measures introduced here and elsewhere extracted various levels of tolls.

07-01-2021 06:51PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I agree entirely with what you are saying. But i think we have to question how effective a zero covid policy could be in places where the libertarian outlook holds such sway and where many still hold the likes of sweden up as an exemplar while countries who actually have dealt with it impressively get scant attention.

What those countries who have done well do best is expose the public health v economy argument the anti lockdown side has relentlessly pushed for the fallacy it has always been. The two were never in direct conflict at all and those who understood that have fared best while the half arsed measures introduced here and elsewhere extracted various levels of tolls.

it isn't so much libertarian values, it more to do with people just taking our high level of civil liberties in europe for granted.

There have been protests about lockdowns all over europe and plenty of concerns about the covid ap and personal data. Now we have people raising concerns about forced vaccinations. The things required of people in Vietnam and South Korea just would not be tolerated in europe, it goes against everything we hold dear.

Dave0301 · 07-01-2021 07:08PM

Aegir wrote: »

it isn't so much libertarian values, it more to do with people just taking our high level of civil liberties in europe for granted.

There have been protests about lockdowns all over europe and plenty of concerns about the covid ap and personal data. Now we have people raising concerns about forced vaccinations. The things required of people in Vietnam and South Korea just would not be tolerated in europe, it goes against everything we hold dear.

I can't find the clip now, but I think it was around this time last year, or shortly after that a member of the WHO team that visited Wuhan said the same.

Essentially, that Western countries would struggle massively to control the spread as what China had done to stem the flow just wouldn't wash over here. To be fair that has been evident in USA, UK, Ireland and other EU countries.

07-01-2021 07:13PM

Dave0301 wrote: »

I can't find the clip now, but I think it was around this time last year, or shortly after that a member of the WHO team that visited Wuhan said the same.

Essentially, that Western countries would struggle massively to control the spread as what China had done to stem the flow just wouldn't wash over here. To be fair that has been evident in USA, UK, Ireland and other EU countries.

yes, oddly we take a dim view of being welded in to an apartment building

Joe_ Public · 07-01-2021 08:07PM

Aegir wrote: »

it isn't so much libertarian values, it more to do with people just taking our high level of civil liberties in europe for granted.

There have been protests about lockdowns all over europe and plenty of concerns about the covid ap and personal data. Now we have people raising concerns about forced vaccinations. The things required of people in Vietnam and South Korea just would not be tolerated in europe, it goes against everything we hold dear.

Yeah, like maybe there's some half way house between, say, South Koreas very strict quarantine policy on travellers and the casual laissez faire approach of many countries this side of the globe. Then again, if you're only going to be half assed about it, it's almost certainly going to fail regardless.

Like i said earlier, future generations can cast a cold eye back on all this, see how a country like south korea, facing challenges with strict measures, came through while never even imposing a full lockdown while others emerged with terrible suffering and hardship but relieved that their precious hard fought freedoms were all intact. They can weigh up the plusses and minuses of all the various approaches and decide for themselves which might offer the most effective model in the event of a future outbreak.

07-01-2021 08:16PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah, like maybe there's some half way house between, say, South Koreas very strict quarantine policy on travellers and the casual laissez faire approach of many countries this side of the globe. Then again, if you're only going to be half assed about it, it's almost certainly going to fail regardless.

Like i said earlier, future generations can cast a cold eye back on all this, see how a country like south korea, facing challenges with strict measures, came through while never even imposing a full lockdown while others emerged with terrible suffering and hardship but relieved that their precious hard fought freedoms were all intact. They can weigh up the plusses and minuses of all the various approaches and decide for themselves which might offer the most effective model in the event of a future outbreak.

I think the mad rush to get some sun during July and August should have been prevented.

Joe_ Public · 07-01-2021 08:25PM

Aegir wrote: »

I think the mad rush to get some sun during July and August should have been prevented.

Don't let boris catch you saying that, you'll be labelled Captain Hindsight.

S.M.B. · 07-01-2021 09:12PM

I don't think our fondness for civil liberties should be used as an excuse for not wanting to surpress the virus beyond a manageable level either. It somewhat implies that the only means of reducing it's prevalence is via methods that infringe on these liberties. There is no denying the task would be a lot more challenging in the UK compared to somewhere like SK but again that does not mean we wouldn't see major benefits from the extent to which we could succeed.

I just don't see how you could come up with a scheme such as Eat Out to Help Out, sending droves of people into communal indoor spaces, if your headline goal is complete suppression (not saying EOTHO is the sole reason for the position we are in but all these individual actions add up, endorsing International summer holidays is another as you guys mentioned).

Joe_ Public · 07-01-2021 10:07PM

Eat out to help out - or "scoff until you cough" as i recall it being unofficially described. Also that telegraph headline - go back to the office or face the sack. Or words to that effect. Pret a Manger just had to be saved above all else!

Being serious, though, if aegir is suggesting people were restricted from unnecessary foreign travel in the summer - as seems the case from his above post - then that is a very obvious curb on the basic fundamental right to travel and leave the state so we might be getting somewhere here.

07-01-2021 10:58PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Eat out to help out - or "scoff until you cough" as i recall it being unofficially described. Also that telegraph headline - go back to the office or face the sack. Or words to that effect. Pret a Manger just had to be saved above all else!

Being serious, though, if aegir is suggesting people were restricted from unnecessary foreign travel in the summer - as seems the case from his above post - then that is a very obvious curb on the basic fundamental right to travel and leave the state so we might be getting somewhere here.

I don’t think people should have been prevented from leaving the state, but I do think travel restrictions should have been implemented all over Europe.

Just making it a bit harder for people to travel would have helped.

Joe_ Public · 07-01-2021 11:19PM

Aegir wrote: »

I don’t think people should have been prevented from leaving the state, but I do think travel restrictions should have been implemented all over Europe.

Just making it a bit harder for people to travel would have helped.

You'd need to flesh that out a bit more i think. Just essential travel only or some recreational travel allowed too? Negative covid test obligatory i imagine. What about South Korean style mandatory quarantine or is that a step too far? How harder does it make it to travel when people are simply requested to self isolate upon return and "might" get a follow up call to check they're complying?

07-01-2021 11:38PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

You'd need to flesh that out a bit more i think. Just essential travel only or some recreational travel allowed too? Negative covid test obligatory i imagine. What about South Korean style mandatory quarantine or is that a step too far? How harder does it make it to travel when people are simply requested to self isolate upon return and "might" get a follow up call to check they're complying?

They should have scrapped the idea of safe places to go, just say that anyone who travels has to quarantine on return.

I can understand why it was frowned on, as many countries rely on summer travel, but it has had a big effect all over Europe.

Joe_ Public · 08-01-2021 12:17AM

Aegir wrote: »

They should have scrapped the idea of safe places to go, just say that anyone who travels has to quarantine on return.

I can understand why it was frowned on, as many countries rely on summer travel, but it has had a big effect all over Europe.

Ok, i can get that. I mean, that's how it is in south korea, new zealand and other places. Only difference in sk is they make damn sure you quarantine and that you get well looked after while you do. Would be interesting to know how many people returning from abroad here and in the uk actually fully comply with the regulations. We'll never know, i guess.

S.M.B. · 08-01-2021 12:55AM

I'd say the rate of compliance is absolutely shocking. That's just based on anecdotal evidence and my thoughts on the messaging on arrival though so I could be wrong.

The vaccine minister had a good laugh the other day when he was being quizzed about testing arrivals. I think he was correctly dismissing the idea that a single test after getting off a plane was some silver bullet but at the same time he was taking the concept of testing arrivals far too literally. It was not a good look.

Joe_ Public · 08-01-2021 01:17AM

S.M.B. wrote: »

I'd say the rate of compliance is absolutely shocking. That's just based on anecdotal evidence and my thoughts on the messaging on arrival though so I could be wrong.

The vaccine minister had a good laugh the other day when he was being quizzed about testing arrivals. I think he was correctly dismissing the idea that a single test after getting off a plane was some silver bullet but at the same time he was taking the concept of testing arrivals far too literally. It was not a good look.

The fact they're still only discussing about doing pre travel testing is a bit alarming, though. It just feels sometimes like these measures are being brought in after the horse has bolted. I think it was yvette cooper who pointed out yesterday that stopping flights from south africa was all very well, but that variant is all over europe now so not having restrictions from all those countries just defeats the purpose. She also said they were delaying the pre travel testing because the government wanted uk residents to be exempt from it. That kind of beggars belief really.

PommieBast · 08-01-2021 02:11AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

She also said they were delaying the pre travel testing because the government wanted uk residents to be exempt from it. That kind of beggars belief really.

Looking at the list prices for such tests it is plausible that the delay is to avoid yet another huge rush.

Joe_ Public · 08-01-2021 06:33AM

PommieBast wrote: »

Looking at the list prices for such tests it is plausible that the delay is to avoid yet another huge rush.

Don't know, but Yvette Cooper was responding to a piece that had appeared in the FT suggesting it was the product of a dispute between two government departments.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1346444984371847175?s=20

Peregrinus · 08-01-2021 07:13AM

PommieBast wrote: »

Looking at the list prices for such tests it is plausible that the delay is to avoid yet another huge rush.

Not really. This is a test that people arriving in the UK would need to get in the 2 days before arriving. So, they'd be getting it outside the UK, in the countries from which they were travelling. Doubt the UK government would be bothered at the thought of creating an increased demand for tests in other countries.

The issue seems to be whether all arrivals should have to produce a test, or whether UK citizens/residents would be exempt. From a medical point of view it makes little sense to exempt UK citizens or residents - the virus doesn't know or care about your migration status in UK law when it's thinking about whether to pitch camp in your lungs - but, politically, it may be difficult to exclude UK citizens and permanent residents from entering the UK.

S.M.B. · 08-01-2021 09:08AM

Looks like the correct decision has been made to apply it to all arrivals and not just non UK citizens.

I assume the isolation period is still necessary with the option to get a further test to reduce the period? Not sure if that service is still having major issues.

robinph · 08-01-2021 09:41AM

trixi001 wrote: »

Or how deaths are measured and recorded?

The UK is also doing mass testing in some areas - so asymptomatic people who have died of other causes, and would not normally have been tested for covid but who have tested +ve for covid (during the mass testing) in the last 28 days, will be recorded as a covid death

Comparing country by country stats is useless due to the number of variables. Pity there is not a standardized measurement used accross Europe.

We just need to consider our own position and how well our hospitals are doing without worrying about we compare globally

Please stop with this lie.

If someone has a positive test but dies falling off a ladder at home doing DIY during their isolation they will be recorded as having died due to falling off a ladder.

Equally if someone has a positive test, but dies 29 days later in hospital from Covid19 then it will be recorded as a covid death.

Covid19 still needs to be mentioned on the death certificate for it to be counted, just having had a positive result and then dying for some totally unrelated reason won't get included in the numbers.

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/12/behind-the-headlines-counting-covid-19-deaths/

bob mcbob · 08-01-2021 11:46AM

I am astounded by this - elderly patients in England refusing the German vaccine preferring to wait for the English one.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/patients-rejected-pfizer-vaccine-wait-oxford-jab-b740836.html

robinph · 08-01-2021 12:56PM

The GP surgery behind my house has just started vaccinations. Think they must have only started today, no queue yet although you need to be invited along. Guess they are just starting to call up people today to see who can make it along as whilst I was waiting in the queue for the pharmacy was only a couple of people who were more likely front line staff somewhere coming out with big grins on their faces(behind the masks) and the were not over 80s.

Was one 80 plus year old being wheeled in as I left though and overheard conversation with others in the queue suggested was for vaccine appointment.

Hopefully won't be too long before I get called in as part of the first round of non oldies.

A Dub in Glasgo · 08-01-2021 03:56PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

I am astounded by this - elderly patients in England refusing the German vaccine preferring to wait for the English one.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/patients-rejected-pfizer-vaccine-wait-oxford-jab-b740836.html

That is the natural by product of the Tory jingoistic / British nationalist approach to the vaccines

Positiveways · 08-01-2021 05:46PM

68,053 new cases of covid 19 along with very sadly 1,325 deaths recorded in the UK today. That latter figure is the highest recorded in the UK since the beginning of the pandemic. Very sad indeed and now with London declaring a major incident, due to increased covid cases and high hospitalizations, the situation there across the Irish Sea remains very volatile.

beggars_bush · 08-01-2021 06:01PM

We're two weeks away from this situation

Happy4all · 08-01-2021 06:20PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

We're two weeks away from this situation

I would be hopeful that we would see a greater awareness and a stay at home compliance here to avoid that.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 08-01-2021 06:24PM

Happy4all wrote: »

I would be hopeful that we would see a greater awareness and a stay at home compliance here to avoid that.

In terms of cases per caipita we are there or worse now.

They've been there longer so their hospitals are already overwhelmed.

We need a fall in cases or we will be there staying flat.

Happy4all · 08-01-2021 06:54PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

In terms of cases per caipita we are there or worse now.

They've been there longer so their hospitals are already overwhelmed.

We need a fall in cases or we will be there staying flat.[/QUOTE

Given that recent figures included a large backlog that we have been told was cleared yesterday, there should be reasonable hope of a drop in figures over the coming two weeks

The UK response - Part II - read OP

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