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Covid 19 Part XXXI-187,554 ROI (2,970 deaths) 100,319 NI (1,730 deaths)(24/01)Read OP

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  • #2102
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,937 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    seamus wrote: »
    I wouldn't bet the house on it; there are many factors that influence changes in virus spread, but there's no good reason to believe that this time should be any different to the others.

    I think the UK variant, if it does become predominant, will prolong this phase.


  • #2103
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,997 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Army being drafted in to help with the vaccination programme, AstraZennica seeking approval next week. Hopes that approval will be granted within a month. Some more good news if approval granted.

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/You

    Great news !


  • #2104
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Russman wrote: »
    The question is, can we open up at 300 cases per day or is there a sweet spot that cases need to be below to avoid immediate exponential growth again ?
    By the time we get there, the game will have changed. Some of the most vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated and the weather will be improving. December brought a rather unique social phenomenon that compounded the problem.

    Assuming people don't meet up in those kinds of numbers again, then level 3 (no indoor dining & minimal household mixing) should be sufficient. But once burned, twice shy. I can see the government trying to hold onto level 5 for as long as they think they can.

    There's a reasonable chance we will be able to reopen schools and construction and lift the 5km limit in early February, with other restrictions to be reviewed later in the month. Hospital numbers will determine a lot more than case numbers do.

    We're a long way off any certainty around that though.


  • #2105
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Russman wrote: »
    The question is, can we open up at 300 cases per day or is there a sweet spot that cases need to be below to avoid immediate exponential growth again ?

    I rellly doubt that we will start opening up in 6 weeks.

    My best guess would be that we might open schools in construction in late January or early February and then more of an opening up in mid March (with the death rate and hospital transmission rate cut by the vaccine).

    At that point we can slowly open up to somewhere around level 3+. With constant reminders to keep behaviour up. We don't want superspreading like Christmas again.

    Then restrictions can relax further when we get more vaccination done moving to level 3 in early April and level 2 in May.

    Then maybe mid summer we might push it out to level 1 and hold it there till some of the mass vaccination happens.

    That's my best guess. Who knows though.


  • #2106
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    Always_Running wrote: »
    Yesterday 28609 tests the day before 28368. Approaching 85k tests in 72 hours is incredible amount. I still wonder what was the true case count in the spring as testing was low compared to now.

    Given then fact that there was an extra 50 people in ICU compared to now id image its safe to say there were probably 3000-4000 cases at the peak


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  • #2107
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    seamus wrote: »
    By the time we get there, the game will have changed. Some of the most vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated and the weather will be improving. December brought a rather unique social phenomenon that compounded the problem.

    Assuming people don't meet up in those kinds of numbers again, then level 3 (no indoor dining & minimal household mixing) should be sufficient. But once burned, twice shy. I can see the government trying to hold onto level 5 for as long as they think they can.

    There's a reasonable chance we will be able to reopen schools and construction and lift the 5km limit in early February, with other restrictions to be reviewed later in the month. Hospital numbers will determine a lot more than case numbers do.

    We're a long way off any certainty around that though.


    Again i admire your optimism but no chance of reopening up in early Feb. We won't have near enough at risk groups vaccinated and zero of the general population by then. This is still a very serious illness for some people and we must remain cautious. Mid March and i'd be absolutely delighted if we can open up again by then.


  • #2108
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    Given then fact that there was an extra 50 people in ICU compared to now id image its safe to say there were probably 3000-4000 cases at the peak

    Surely they are doing a lot better at pre icu therapeutic intervention now so that people don't need icu as much.

    So if one in a hundred cases needed icu then one in five hundred might need icu now.

    Im not sure what they are doing therapeutically but surely they have learned something by now.


  • #2109
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    seamus wrote: »
    By the time we get there, the game will have changed. Some of the most vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated and the weather will be improving. December brought a rather unique social phenomenon that compounded the problem.

    Assuming people don't meet up in those kinds of numbers again, then level 3 (no indoor dining & minimal household mixing) should be sufficient. But once burned, twice shy. I can see the government trying to hold onto level 5 for as long as they think they can.

    There's a reasonable chance we will be able to reopen schools and construction and lift the 5km limit in early February, with other restrictions to be reviewed later in the month. Hospital numbers will determine a lot more than case numbers do.

    We're a long way off any certainty around that though.

    Theirs not a reasonable chance of that happening. Many need prolonged stays in hospital and ICU with Covid which seems to have been forgetting about. It will take weeks after this is over for healthcare to get back to normal. The government unlikely to take such risk very in 3 weeks


  • #2110
    iamwhoiam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    Given then fact that there was an extra 50 people in ICU compared to now id image its safe to say there were probably 3000-4000 cases at the peak

    The treatment for covid is a lot more advanced now and less people from the total hospital admission are needing ICU intervention


  • #2111
    Endintheclowns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 138 ✭✭Endintheclowns


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Shocking numbers in the UK. Deaths 1,300 or so, 68,000 today cases today which means the worst it yet to come. Hospitals about to be overhelmed which means the death rate will also rise and potentially people who need hospital for other treatment may also suffer. Very sad to see but we need to stop flights from the UK. The risks are too high which our own health system on its knees at the minute.

    We are circa 2 weeks behind them. I think by the looks of things out and about and the half arsed lockdown we are seeing at present im guessing we will see an additional raft of restriction measures introduced by the end of next week as deaths begin to spiral out of control. Looking like 15th to the 30th of this month is going to be very grim indeed. :(


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  • #2112
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    Again i admire your optimism but no chance of reopening up in early Feb. We won't have near enough at risk groups vaccinated and zero of the general population by then. This is still a very serious illness for some people and we must remain cautious. Mid March and i'd be absolutely delighted if we can open up again by then.

    Yeh, I would be surprised if children are back in school before March. If you even factor in that the worst of the hospitalizations are prob gonna happen between now and the end of January, even if positive cases are dramatically down, will they open up schools if hospitals are still stretched or only starting to recover from whatever the worst of the surge has thrown at them ?


  • #2113
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    I rellly doubt that we will start opening up in 6 weeks.

    My best guess would be that we might open schools in construction in late January or early February and then more of an opening up in mid March (with the death rate and hospital transmission rate cut by the vaccine).

    At that point we can slowly open up to somewhere around level 3+. With constant reminders to keep behaviour up. We don't want superspreading like Christmas again.

    Then restrictions can relax further when we get more vaccination done moving to level 3 in early April and level 2 in May.

    Then maybe mid summer we might push it out to level 1 and hold it there till some of the mass vaccination happens.

    That's my best guess. Who knows though.

    Id say mid February probably for where were last week with restrictions. I reckon we need to get down to about 1000 a day or so like we were when we locked down in October and our hospitals to be okish before reopening. Then maybe start to mid March for hairdressers and gyms and shops opening. Can't see restaurants open even outdoors til gone Easter


  • #2114
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,997 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    :(

    Yes.
    Viral load appears to be higher as people are presenting a few days earlier and sick.
    Scary in Dublin and Cork , and other cities also.

    On another note as per second comment... is this ACE's doctor friend who said there was no issue with surge capacity in CUH and Covid was a mild illness , back in September ?
    Be grand !


  • #2115
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Russman wrote: »
    The question is, can we open up at 300 cases per day or is there a sweet spot that cases need to be below to avoid immediate exponential growth again ?

    We cant open up with 300 cases again I'm afraid with the new variant. The R0 needs to be below 0.7. This is going to take a while. With what is likely to unfold in the next few weeks ,Id expect much more caution. None of us want this but we need to make logical decisions


  • #2116
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    wadacrack wrote: »
    We cant open up with 300 cases again I'm afraid with the new variant. The R0 needs to be below 0.7. This is going to take a while. With what is likely to unfold in the next few weeks ,Id expect much more caution. None of us want this but we need to make logical decisions
    It's a race with the vaccine now isn't it? We can't reopen without it.

    It looks like vaccine supplies will be tight at least until the end of February, but hopefully will begin to increase pretty rapidly after that (that's assuming Oxford and J&J are approved). I'd say it's going to be heads down at least until the end of March, but with lots of light on the horizon.


  • #2117
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    Endintheclowns wrote: »
    We are circa 2 weeks behind them. I think by the looks of things out and about and the half arsed lockdown we are seeing at present im guessing we will see an additional raft of restriction measures introduced by the end of next week as deaths begin to spiral out of control. Looking like 15th to the 30th of this month is going to be very grim indeed. :(

    I'm not so sure. How can you say this lockdown is half arse. Come tonight construction etc will be finished. I've seen this on the forum everytime, people being very negative. The government restrictions have worked in the past they will work now. We won't be as bad as the UK.


  • #2118
    titan18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,052 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    I'm not so sure. How can you say this lockdown is half arse. Come tonight construction etc will be finished. I've seen this on the forum everytime, people being very negative. The government restrictions have worked in the past they will work now. We won't be as bad as the UK.

    Lack of enforcement means it's half assed tbf.


  • #2119
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,459 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Yes.
    Viral load appears to be higher as people are presenting a few days earlier and sick.
    Scary in Dublin and Cork , and other cities also.

    On another note as per second comment... is this ACE's doctor friend who said there was no issue with surge capacity in CUH and Covid was a mild illness , back in September ?
    Be grand !

    Any genomic sequencing on these cases?


  • #2120
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    hmmm wrote: »
    It's a race with the vaccine now isn't it? We can't reopen without it.

    It looks like vaccine supplies will be tight at least until the end of February, but hopefully will begin to increase pretty rapidly after that (that's assuming Oxford and J&J are approved). I'd say it's going to be heads down at least until the end of March, but with lots of light on the horizon.

    Yea that seems more likely. Vaccines looking good as you say


  • #2121
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    wadacrack wrote: »
    We cant open up with 300 cases again I'm afraid with the new variant. The R0 needs to be below 0.7. This is going to take a while. With what is likely to unfold in the next few weeks ,Id expect much more caution. None of us want this but we need to make logical decisions

    Is there any rational argument on why our numbers will decline faster then they didnt during Oct - Dec (roughly 80% in 6 Weeks). If people say "schools closed", I would ask why the Authorities were saying they werent bad for spread if they would have such a massive impact on the spread. But even at that, how much does the supposed more contageous element and the time of year (worst period in terms of transmission) counter some of that?

    To get down to 300 from even a peak of 6000 is looking for a 95% reduction from Peak. Can we do that in 8 weeks ?

    I said it before but I would be pleasantly surprised if we are below 300 by the start of April unless there is some quick, dramatic shift in how our numbers decline for some reason.

    How that might play out with schools and other measures I dont know. I guess the state of our hospitals and health system by the end of Feb may play a massive role in that question.


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  • #2122
    screamer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,193 ✭✭✭screamer


    I also think we’re going to see plenty of COVID circulation till April when we come out of flu season- conditions that are equally perfect for COVID to thrive in.
    I’ve said this as far back as last summer, and I am honestly shocked when I hear things like the reason for the pup payment reduction which was set to be reduced feb 1st is that by then they expected COVID to be under control and that the economy could be reopened in a sustained way, like who is advising these politicians????? They have no clue hence I have no confidence.


  • #2123
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    titan18 wrote: »
    Lack of enforcement means it's half assed tbf.

    Yes but it works. It has worked. No point in hysteria. We are at the peak. Come next week the numbers will be signifantly lower then this week. Hospital numbers will soon start to fall back. The damage was done in December. We will pay for it the first half of January.


  • #2124
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Is there any rational argument on why our numbers will decline faster then they didnt during Oct - Dec (roughly 80% in 6 Weeks). If people say "schools closed", I would ask why the Authorities were saying they werent bad for spread if they would have such a massive impact on the spread. But even at that, how much does the supposed more contageous element and the time of year (worst period in terms of transmission) counter some of that?

    To get down to 300 from even a peak of 6000 is looking for a 95% reduction from Peak. Can we do that in 8 weeks ?

    I said it before but I would be pleasantly surprised if we are below 300 by the start of April unless there is some quick, dramatic shift in how our numbers decline for some reason.

    How that might play out with schools and other measures I dont know. I guess the state of our hospitals and health system by the end of Feb may play a massive role in that question.

    Im guessing here.

    October to December there was 17 people on busses every day when I was travelling (7am and 3:30pm). Now when I'm travelling my bus has at most 5 people on it.

    My bus journey takes 20 minutes (into and out of work). October to December it took 35 minutes.

    Less people are travelling. Behaviour is definitely different.

    I rellly hope things go faster. They might not. I'd be disappointed if it doesn't.


  • #2125
    screamer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,193 ✭✭✭screamer


    kilkenny31 wrote: »
    Yes but it works. It has worked. No point in hysteria. We are at the peak. Come next week the numbers will be signifantly lower then this week. Hospital numbers will soon start to fall back. The damage was done in December. We will pay for it the first half of January.

    And longer, because if we get numbers under control and lift restrictions the numbers will just do the same again, rocket. We’ll be kept under strict lockdown for a long time, say bye bye to paddy’s day, Easter if we’re lucky.


  • #2126
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Is there any rational argument on why our numbers will decline faster then they didnt during Oct - Dec (roughly 80% in 6 Weeks). If people say "schools closed", I would ask why the Authorities were saying they werent bad for spread if they would have such a massive impact on the spread. But even at that, how much does the supposed more contageous element and the time of year (worst period in terms of transmission) counter some of that?

    To get down to 300 from even a peak of 6000 is looking for a 95% reduction from Peak. Can we do that in 8 weeks ?

    I said it before but I would be pleasantly surprised if we are below 300 by the start of April unless there is some quick, dramatic shift in how our numbers decline for some reason.

    How that might play out with schools and other measures I dont know. I guess the state of our hospitals and health system by the end of Feb may play a massive role in that question.

    I don't think so in that time frame. I guess the number to look at will be hospitalizations and what percentage of vulnerable people will be vaccinated. Its quite difficult to predict what will happen with this new variant. Alot of unknowns but I think lockdown could work quite well


  • #2127
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Trinity professor Liam Townsend on radio talking about long covid , first study into effects of long covid. Approximately 2% have symptoms lasting more than 3 months, not necessarily dictated by or related to severity of original illness. Found very few examples of lung scarring on X rays so they don't think covid causes any irreversible damage to organs long term .
    Kings college UK to soon release study of millions of covid patients tracked for months.


  • #2128
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,997 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Russman wrote: »
    The question is, can we open up at 300 cases per day or is there a sweet spot that cases need to be below to avoid immediate exponential growth again ?

    Illness in the high numbers is realising now in hospital admissions and will continue for the next few weeks as those infected infected others.
    Then ICU admissions lag a few days behind before increasing but stay longer in ICU .
    These numbers are the ones which will determine how we open up and I and everyone I know are preparing ourselves for a long haul over the next month to six weeks maybe .
    No way the country should allow the risk of this happening AGAIN , which it will if we open up too soon , and vaccines being rolled out .
    Based on current numbers I am amazed that anyone is discussing " opening up" !
    The lower numbers of cases were predicted because despite high numbers if swabs , only symptomatic are now being tested and not close contacts.
    If we are getting figures of 6500 it is very likely that the numbers are at least 2 to 3 times that .
    I know most people know that and it is that they are trying to see some positivity in all this .
    Let's just get over this few weeks first .


  • #2129
    kilkenny31
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 701 ✭✭✭kilkenny31


    screamer wrote: »
    And longer, because if we get numbers under control and lift restrictions the numbers will just do the same again, rocket. We’ll be kept under strict lockdown for a long time, say bye bye to paddy’s day, Easter if we’re lucky.

    Agreed. My point is tho that people calling for more restrictions is ridiculous. Most people are at home. Just because you drive down the street and see 50 people out walking doesn't mean anything.


  • #2130
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,997 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Always_Running wrote: »
    Yesterday 28609 tests the day before 28368. Approaching 85k tests in 72 hours is incredible amount. I still wonder what was the true case count in the spring as testing was low compared to now.

    I think we are back to testing as per April now for the last week .


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  • #2131
    mohawk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭mohawk


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Is there any rational argument on why our numbers will decline faster then they didnt during Oct - Dec (roughly 80% in 6 Weeks). If people say "schools closed", I would ask why the Authorities were saying they werent bad for spread if they would have such a massive impact on the spread. But even at that, how much does the supposed more contageous element and the time of year (worst period in terms of transmission) counter some of that?

    To get down to 300 from even a peak of 6000 is looking for a 95% reduction from Peak. Can we do that in 8 weeks ?

    I said it before but I would be pleasantly surprised if we are below 300 by the start of April unless there is some quick, dramatic shift in how our numbers decline for some reason.

    How that might play out with schools and other measures I dont know. I guess the state of our hospitals and health system by the end of Feb may play a massive role in that question.

    It’s not just schools closed it’s also construction.

    There are numerous reasons why there could be a difference in the rate of decline in this wave compared to the last.
    Oct- Dec I don’t think many were properly sticking to restrictions such as household visits. This time the cases are so high that people do seem to be stopping household visits. Also people I know working in essential jobs and can’t work from home are having their shifts rearranged so that there is as few people onsite at a time as possible. So there are employers taking this wave seriously that didn’t take the last wave as serious.


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