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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #7742
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Well, it means at least 9/10 over four days. Could be 18/20. Maybe 90/100. The point is that the numerator is problematically closer to the denominator. What is a "true stat" in your mind?

    It means nothing unless she gives the number of referrals.
    A true stat would be the number of referrals and the number of referrals that were positive.
    It would be no different than me saying 90% of people I know didn't have a positive test.
    I can't provide statistical evidence to prove my statement.
    Neither has she.


  • #7743
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    ZX7R wrote: »
    It means nothing unless she gives the number of referrals.
    A true stat would be the number of referrals and the number of referrals that were positive.
    It would be no different than me saying 90% of people I know didn't have a positive test.
    I can't provide statistical evidence to prove my statement.
    Neither has she.
    So saying 18 out of 20 is "statistical evidence" but 90% is not..? :confused:


  • #7744
    smurfjed
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,644 ✭✭✭✭smurfjed


    Mars Bar wrote: »
    Ireland's problem is there's not enough fear. Here (UAE) there's a fine for nearly everything. Abu Dhabi is doubly strict. I'm in quarantine with a GPS tracker on me after international travel. If I didn't present for the tracker then I'd have been slapped with a 12,500euro fine. I can bé fined 500 Euro for not presenting for my follow up PCR on my 8th day of quarantine.
    And yet even with those restrictions and the early implementation of the Sinovac vaccine, the UAE numbers are staying constantly in the 1500-2000 daily range. Any idea why?


  • #7745
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,090 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Listening to the radio on the way to work earlier it feels like the hysteria is worse than March. People texting in calling for curfews and closing down so many jobs. You'd swear construction workers are going around having covid tea breaks to spread the virus.
    Yes numbers are high, but a bit of calm is needed. Plenty of jobs can be done with adequate social distancing and following guidelines. I think some people won't be happy till everyone is confined to their houses 24/7.
    For the vast majority this is not a serious illness, coming to work i was fearing the apocalypse but after a few hours I'm reminded, life goes whether we are glued to the latest figures or this thread.


  • #7746
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Ficheall wrote: »
    So saying 18 out of 20 is "statistical evidence" but 90% is not..? :confused:

    We don't know her referral numbers,
    Same dr reported a 150% in referrals in the summer, turned out she referred 5 extra people that day.
    When she shows her referrals with the number of positives and ,then I will believe her statement because that is all it is a statement


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  • #7747
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    prunudo wrote: »
    Listening to the radio on the way to work earlier it feels like the hysteria is worse than March. People texting in calling for curfews and closing down so many jobs. You'd swear construction workers are going around having covid tea breaks to spread the virus.
    Yes numbers are high, but a bit of calm is needed. Plenty of jobs can be done with adequate social distancing and following guidelines. I think some people won't be happy till everyone is confined to their houses 24/7.
    For the vast majority this is not a serious illness, coming to work i was fearing the apocalypse but after a few hours I'm reminded, life goes whether we are glued to the latest figures or this thread.

    You didn’t need to listen to the radio this morning, several pages from yesterday contained the same hysteria.


  • #7748
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    seamus wrote: »
    We're at a different stage than Germany, there's no real comparison yet.

    Germany are panicking because a strong improvement in numbers following their lockdown appears to have stalled around October levels, which is the equivalent of 1,000 cases/day for us.

    We're two weeks behind them, so we won't know until the 18th or so whether we see the same stalling effect, or if we will pull back to where we were in late Novembr.

    So let's just wait until it get's really bad and make a move then.

    Like the lad who jumped off the skyscraper and half way down shouted "i'm fine im fine".


  • #7749
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Infections with Sars-CoV-2 also tend to be milder in those with recent common cold coronavirus.

    Reinfections over time will eventually see Sars-CoV-2 becoming the 5th common cold coronavirus. The vaccine will accelerate the process

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.08.415703v1

    That idea was disproven in this study unfortunately. It found no causal link between common cold coronaviruses and the severity of infection from COVID-19. It did suggest that severity may be instead be influenced by prior exposure to various random antigens.

    I do agree with you on your second point. As more people become immune Sars-CoV-2 will become one of the many respiratory viruses we deal with already.


  • #7750
    rob316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,669 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Widescreen wrote: »
    They should be creative with schools. try and get the exam year students back at least so they don't miss out on proper exams like last years pupils did.

    Also ensure all students are properly schooled online and that they are not roaming the streets causing more spread than if they were at school.

    And special needs schools, I can't tell you the damage the first lockdown has done to my son's progress. He has regressed massively. Teachers aren't contending with 30 kids in a room, they have 6 kids and 2 SNA's.
    Not a hope the unions will allow some of their members go in and not others though.


  • #7751
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Mumbai on their way for Zero Covid. It can be done. Its a city with lots of pverty and densely populated at 18m. Less excuses more action needed

    https://twitter.com/mybmc/status/1345772395626262531


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  • #7752
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    ZX7R wrote: »
    We don't know her referral numbers,
    Same dr reported a 150% in referrals in the summer, turned out she referred 5 extra people that day.
    When she shows her referrals with the number of positives and ,then I will believe her statement because that is all it is a statement
    But saying 18 out of 20 is still just a statement? It's more info, yes, but it's not any extra proof, not any better "evidence", and not any "truer" a statistic..


  • #7753
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,090 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    You didn’t need to listen to the radio this morning, several pages from yesterday contained the same hysteria.

    I agree, and I read them, but I'd usually take what is said on boards with a pinch of salt, certainty never felt like its a true representation of society from either side of the discussion.
    But when you have Pat Kenny reading out sensationalist texts, and one sided may I add, suddenly a larger percentage of the population hears the views and wild notions start getting traction and some opinion poll tells government the Irish people favour curfew. Crazy times.


  • #7754
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,393 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Ficheall wrote: »
    But saying 18 out of 20 is still just a statement? It's more info, yes, but it's not any extra proof, not any better "evidence", and not any "truer" a statistic..

    If you want to take her statement at face value so be it.
    It is not a stat


  • #7755
    shmeee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,377 ✭✭✭✭shmeee


    Theboinkmaster wrote: »
    if schools close they absolutely should close construction also.

    Why?

    That sector from what I've seen and heard is one of the safest to prevent the spread of Covid on any sites. Easier get out of Mountjoy above as get into some of the sites around the country without strict protocols in place.

    As for a classroom, that's a different league altogether.


  • #7756
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Mumbai on their way for Zero Covid. It can be done. Its a city with lots of pverty and densely populated at 18m. Less excuses more action needed

    https://twitter.com/mybmc/status/1345772395626262531

    But but but the border something something.


  • #7757
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    prunudo wrote: »
    I agree, and I read them, but I'd usuallytake what is said on boards with a pinch of salt, certainty never felt like its a true representationof societyfrom either side of the discussion.
    But when you have Pat Kenny reading out sensationalist texts, and one sided may I add, suddenly a larger percentage of the population hears the views and wild notions start getting traction and some opinion poll tells government the Irish people favour curfew. Crazy times.

    What do you make of proposition of hospital staff having to cancel treatments and potentially not be able to treat people with heart attacks in a timely manner by months end, do you believe they are being hysterical or are scaremongering? Or could it be we are facing a health crisis that will result in unnecessary deaths.

    Some of the discourse is eerily similar in the run-up to the crash, in terms of level of denial.


  • #7758
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    That hospitalisation curve is more of a straight line at this stage.

    538251.png


  • #7759
    AutoTuning
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭AutoTuning


    It’s worse as the crash was only money.


  • #7760
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    prunudo wrote: »
    I agree, and I read them, but I'd usually take what is said on boards with a pinch of salt, certainty never felt like its a true representation of society from either side of the discussion.
    But when you have Pat Kenny reading out sensationalist texts, and one sided may I add, suddenly a larger percentage of the population hears the views and wild notions start getting traction and some opinion poll tells government the Irish people favour curfew. Crazy times.

    We have the highest incidence rate on the planet. Our hospitals are in deep, deep trouble.
    It's completely understandable that people are anxious.


  • #7761
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,090 ✭✭✭prunudo


    WoollyRedHat wrote: »
    What do you make of proposition of hospital staff having to cancel treatments and potentially not be able to treat people with heart attacks by months end, do you believe they are being hysterical or are scaremongering?

    Some of the discourse is eerily similar in the run-up to the crash, in terms of level of denial.

    And what benefit is keeping me at home, on €350 welfare payment when i can easily work within guidelines.
    As I said I understand numbers are high but calling for the closure of sectors that are abiding by guidelines is very easy to say, even more so by those who can contuine to work from home on full payment.


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  • #7762
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    WoollyRedHat wrote: »
    What do you make of proposition of hospital staff having to cancel treatments and potentially not be able to treat people with heart attacks in a timely manner by months end, do you believe they are being hysterical or are scaremongering? Or could it be we are facing a health crisis that will result in unnecessary deaths.

    Some of the discourse is eerily similar in the run-up to the crash, in terms of level of denial.

    The schools was another one. We were told as fact they would reopen.

    Then when it was pushed out we were told can't happen, they are opening, life goes on.

    Now that it looks like they'll be pushed out further, no one remembers ever asserting facts.


  • #7763
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    AutoTuning wrote: »
    It’s worse as the crash was only money.

    I was moreso trying to compare it by way of mindset. Despite all the indicators, some people refused to believe we were about to face an economic crash and when it did happen, the goalposts were inevitably moved and reasons for it occuring downplayed.


  • #7764
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    ZX7R wrote: »
    If you want to take her statement at face value so be it.
    It is not a stat
    I'm curious as to what your definition of a "stat" is. If you were saying that she hasn't provided proof by giving copies of the referrals and the results, I could understand where you were coming from, but saying 90% is not a statistic but 18/20 is is incorrect. 18/20 is more informative, yes, but both are still statistics.


  • #7765
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Hardyn wrote: »
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.08.415703v1

    That idea was disproven in this study unfortunately. It found no causal link between common cold coronaviruses and the severity of infection from COVID-19. It did suggest that severity may be instead be influenced by prior exposure to various random antigens.

    I do agree with you on your second point. As more people become immune Sars-CoV-2 will become one of the many respiratory viruses we deal with already.

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/common-cold-coronaviruses-tied-to-less-severe-covid-19-cases-68146

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6512/89

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.22.308965v1


  • #7766
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    I'd bring in a rule that if anyone is caught transgressing restrictions, they go to the back of the vaccination queue, regardless of age or condition.

    Also anyone refusing the vaccine is banned from getting any HSE treatment if the knobheads do then catch Covid.

    Might make a few think twice before screwing it up for everyone.


  • #7767
    AutoTuning
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭AutoTuning


    WoollyRedHat wrote: »
    I was moreso trying to compare it by way of mindset. Despite all the indicators, some people refused to believe we were about to face an economic crash and when it did happen, the goalposts were inevitably moved and reasons for it occuring downplayed.

    The big difference then was the government was also playing it down until the IMF arrived and we were then into a period of utter humiliation and over reaction in the other extreme.

    This time the government and media are being very facts based and prudent. The denial is a bubble online and in the general public, with a very large degree of mostly American overspill.


  • #7768
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Mumbai on their way for Zero Covid. It can be done. Its a city with lots of pverty and densely populated at 18m. Less excuses more action needed

    https://twitter.com/mybmc/status/1345772395626262531

    Is that official policy or a bit like the loons in ISAG here?


  • #7769
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    That hospitalisation curve is more of a straight line at this stage.

    538251.png

    Absolutely nuts graph that.


  • #7770
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    prunudo wrote: »
    And what benefit is keeping me at home, on €350 welfare payment when i can easily work within guidelines.
    As I said I understand numbers are high but calling for the closure of sectors that are abiding by guidelines is very easy to say, even more so by those who can contuine to work from home on full payment.

    Can't really comment on that when I don't know what sector you're in.


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  • #7771
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ElJeffe wrote: »
    I'd bring in a rule that if anyone is caught transgressing restrictions, they go to the back of the vaccination queue, regardless of age or condition.

    Also anyone refusing the vaccine is banned from getting any HSE treatment if the knobheads do then catch Covid.

    Might make a few think twice before screwing it up for everyone.

    Do you dream of Fascism?


This discussion has been closed.
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