Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

niallo27 wrote: »

But how do you know they were non-complyers, I would say most cases were from Christmas drinks and dinner and so forth which were all within restrictions at the time.

I know non-compilers who come into close contact with dozens of people a week, my manager is one. i tend to assume it's that sort of lifestyle that is spreading it, rather than the person who goes to visit their parents with all the windows open and masks on for Xmas. I could be completely wrong, who knows?

Wouldn't that have been an idea? Open everything up for the end of November and beginning of December but then allow people to quarantine for two weeks by having a level 5 right for 2 weeks up until the 25th? People had to go to work every day and then went right from work on the 21st to their parents house on the 25th

This thread seems to have lost the plot slightly...
Here are some reasons to remain calm and rational:
- Level 5 didn’t properly commence until New Years Eve, 3 days ago. I’ve seen very high compliance since in my area. People are taking this seriously and it should be given a chance to work
- Vaccination programme starts tomorrow properly. Ireland will do ok with it in the end, as we always do. It’ll just take us awhile to get there.
- Schools are off all next week and children & families have a chance to isolate. This will greatly limit transmission after many were mixing over Christmas.

A lot of the compliers often tend not to be compliant at all.

quartz1 wrote: »

So as I understand it now we can't test enough never mind count them ......that's not very reassuring . I presume the data been unavailable makes it somewhat difficult for NPHET to say Schools are safe.

The real number that counts is the hospital numbers.

lukas8888 wrote: »

Speaking to my neighbour earlier today told me his mother is due to be vaccinated next week,she has slight dementia but he is reluctant to give consent.
Her age 92...

That's one way to know he is in her will

hotmail.com wrote: »

The real number that counts is the hospital numbers.

Saving myself time by quoting myself instead of answering.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I do agree that these are important numbers and they look bad.

For decision makers they suck because the lag is too high.

I believe one of the nphet guys described it once as being 7-10 days between a lot of cases and their associated hospitalisation.

So for a decision making point of view (with tests on close contacts stopped) we are

Infection 5-14 days to symptoms
1-2 days to test
1-2 days to positive result
7-10 days to hospitalisation

So in a worst case scenario it's about a month from infection to hospitalisation.

That's too long for decision making so instead they look at cases (presumably swabs now) when making their decisions.

Similar to the introduction of a Tier 4 level of restrictions in Britain just before Christmas, is is time for our own government to add a Level 6 to the existing framework, with whatever additional restrictions they decide to announce during the coming days?

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I think we need to put all this in context. Level 5 restrictions were introduced last week. We should see those having an impact soon. The vaccine will likely be rolled out to nursing homes etc so we probably wont see the same high death rate we seen in the first wave.

I think the biggest worry is hospitals being under pressure over the next 2-3 weeks but don't forget the flu isn't around this year so it quiet normal for hospitals to be overrun in January. Dozens of people waiting on trolleys etc. It is bad but we are likely to be at the peak next week. Then it will fall back.

Untrue .
Crowded and busy yes .
No beds for people .
People sitting on chairs waiting for trolleys waiting for a bed.
Not with an infectious disease rampant infecting staff and healthcare workers ( some would get flu, yes, but not to the extent that people are catching Covid ) for which there is no preventative other than PPE and isolation.
Covid and busy A&E s and overcrowded hospitals do not coexist at all .
Most years there might be one ward with flu patients in any given hospital , not half the hospital .
Patients admitted are overwhelmingly sicker than with flu as this affects multiple body systems at a rapid pace once one us sick enough to be admitted.
And what happens when there aren't any spaces left for Covid patients ?
General admissions get cancelled ..operations ..appointments ..treatments .
Please do not conflate this with other years , it is patently not the same .

landofthetree wrote: »

People are too optimistic with talk of summer.


It will be summer 2022 the earliest. Even I'm probably being optimistic with that prediction.

Why?, unless the vaccines don't work? By July we should have 70% of pop vaccinated.

Unless it mutates beyond the efficacy of vaccines. I'd say in 8 months time (even less) no more restrictions etc.. IMO

Indo saying an automatic test for symptomatic people won't be guaranteed as system can't cope.

Steve012 wrote: »

Why?, unless the vaccines don't work? By July we should have 70% of pop vaccinated.

Unless it mutates beyond the efficacy of vaccines. I'd say in 8 months time (even less) no more restrictions etc.. IMO

August bank holiday weekend the wet pubs will be open, fact.

CruelSummer wrote: »

This thread seems to have lost the plot slightly...
Here are some reasons to remain calm and rational:
- Level 5 didn’t properly commence until New Years Eve, 3 days ago. I’ve seen very high compliance since in my area. People are taking this seriously and it should be given a chance to work
- Vaccination programme starts tomorrow properly. Ireland will do ok with it in the end, as we always do. It’ll just take us awhile to get there.
- Schools are off all next week and children & families have a chance to isolate. This will greatly limit transmission after many were mixing over Christmas.

I'd feel a lot calmer if everything remained shut for (at least) another week.
That would give time to
a) flush the Christmas minglers out either with symptoms or 2 weeks of relatively low contacts.
b) give the level 5 restrictions room and time to work without (almost) everybody rushing back to work tomorrow.