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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #3782
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Happy new year to everyone, can’t believe we’ve been banging on for 30 threads since the start of 2020 with plenty of disagreements :D

    Highlights of the year:
    - Clayton Hotel Pearse Street
    - First case
    - Will they won’t they cancel the parade
    - Paddy’s Day Speech
    - 40,000 tests cancelled
    - Social distancing will be over in a month
    - Social distancing will never end
    - Cleaning your shopping
    - American tourists
    - meat plants and LOKdown
    - NPHET repeatedly blaming various groups
    - 2nd lockdown debate
    - vaccine news - it works, approved, arrival


    Gotta say though, it seems like there’s a nice balance in the thread these days with actual discussion and analysis and even those on both extreme ends of the spectrum still mostly managing to explain what they’re talking about ;)

    Here’s to another year, a hopefully a far better one, with the vaccine thread becoming more popular than the general one.


  • #3783
    Golfman64
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 314 ✭✭Golfman64


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    I was identified as a close contact yesterday. I booked my test with the HSE yesterday. Will I now not be getting a test?

    I think today we have officially reached some level of crisis. If tracking and tracing is collapsing, the virus is transmitting untethered throughout communities. Everything we have tried to avoid is imminently possible if we don’t get our act together as a nation.

    If you are a close contact, you must restrict your movements for 14 days irrespective of whether you have a test, I believe.


  • #3784
    D.Q
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,054 ✭✭✭D.Q


    Level 6 is when we all lift Tony up and throw him in the sea.


  • #3785
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,648 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    These are the Christmas Day positives.

    It can only go down from here. Opportunities for community transmission have vanished. Keep the schools closed for an extra week and let this complete mess flush it’s way through the system


  • #3786
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,219 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    Okay thanks for that giveitholly. I'm a bit concerned because I have an underlying condition but I have a secret weapon in case I can't get tested that will tell me ahead of time whether I need medical attention. Might look into getting a private test as well.

    Well if you show any symptoms at all or concerned one bit don't be afraid to contact your GP,He/She should hopefully be able to help you out


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  • #3787
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,862 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    xhomelezz wrote: »
    At this stage, and before it's just lame excuse. Schools and childcare should be open for frontline workers, kids in troubles etc. Just like other countries did. For the rest there should've been plan in action coming from DOE.

    Is there any.....NOPE

    That would upset Norma's extended holiday.
    This should have been set up since the original lockdown .
    It was the one thing the Brits got right in March.

    And to add , maybe vaccinate all those SNAs and teachers who have to return to teach and look after these children so other essential frontline workers can continue working . Not fair to be leaving them so late, especially SNAs.


  • #3788
    Gadgetman496
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,454 ✭✭✭Gadgetman496


    HSE confirms close contacts without symptoms will no longer be referred for testing as system overwhelmed.

    "Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid."



  • #3789
    Ironhead93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 60 ✭✭Ironhead93


    Anyone hazard a guess when restrictions might be eased? Even into a level 5 minus? My guess is mid-late Feb


  • #3790
    AutoTuning
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭AutoTuning


    Fundamentally we just don't have the national or political will to do what Australia and NZ did. We're too frightened to upset Northern Ireland. We were too frightened to upset EU freedom of movement, which ended anyway regardless and we wouldn't even consider stopping incoming US traffic at the start of the pandemic.

    We hummed and hawed about masks for months and months and there was no real national resistance to using them. It was more like there was peer pressure as you'd end up the only person in a supermarket with one on. I remember telling people from other countries about the situation with masks here and they were absolutely shocked that it was so lax. The UK was the same. It was like they were afraid of an issue that was only happening in the US - aggressive anti-masker conspiracy theorists. We have a few of them but they're hardly widespread.

    Then we've had loads of people with the "Aragh! Sure it is grand!" attitude who've been going off on house visits and having parties and in sheebens and younger lots who don't give a ****

    I've an elderly relative who lives in an area of Dublin which has quite gentrified and hipsterised and full of cafes. She won't go out anymore as anytime she does the footpath has been full of people sitting drinking coffees or having pints. So, she's now terrified to set foot outside in case she gets covid and hasn't been outside her door for months. Nobody moves them. Nobody intervenes. It just keeps happening over and over for months.

    Unfortunately, we just aren't going to get a handle on this. Nor is most of Western Europe, the UK nor the US because unfortunately we're short sighted morons who can't or won't do it.

    If the vaccines don't work quickly enough, we are headed into a situation that will just be ruinous in the medium term.

    There's no point even trying to debate it. People don't want to know. They won't do it and they will tell you you're mad if you suggest something like cooling it over Christmas rather than going around and pretending like nothing's wrong.

    We can't just keep driving the number down to 'relatively low' numbers and then letting it swing back again to high numbers over and over. That's all any of the EU countries or the UK have been doing for the last 9 months.

    Sorry for being depressing, but I'm just fed up with the whole thing. Nobody seems to be prepared to actually deal with this. It's like watching managed decline.


  • #3791
    mirrorwall14
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    khalessi wrote: »
    DUring the last lockdown many schools got permission to conitinue providing meals for kids and some dropped the meals sd to their doors.

    Yeah a close relative is a young teacher teaching in a school and was one of those delivering meals. In his case it was actually very good for him to see the sheer poverty in stark reality. Oh he knew about it academically but there’s a difference when you are up close and personal with some of those kids home lives


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  • #3792
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    The_Brood wrote: »
    Still waiting for someone to explain Europe's cowardice and why we did not just close everything down bar actually life-essential necessities for 3 weeks to completely eliminate the virus and return life back to normal? What was required was men with guns outside doors, men with guns on the borders. Complain and cry to me all you want about your rights for 3 weeks, when the alternative is this year-long hell of lockdowns and restrictions? Whoever prefers 1 year+ of lockdowns over 3 weeks of house arrest is completely off their heads and hasn't seen the true suffering of these restrictions. Yet Europe has firmly chosen the former. I do not get it. I really do not.

    Ah come on no need for guns at borders. I said weeks ago though travel should have been stopped to all but vital front line services and food essentials at our border with the North and at all air and sea ports.

    It's too late now the damage has been done.


  • #3793
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    AutoTuning wrote: »
    Fundamentally we just don't have the national or political will to do what Australia and NZ did. We're too frightened to upset Northern Ireland. We were too frightened to upset EU freedom of movement, which ended anyway regardless and we wouldn't even consider stopping incoming US traffic at the start of the pandemic.

    We hummed and hawed about masks for months and months and there was no real national resistance to using them. It was more like there was peer pressure as you'd end up the only person in a supermarket with one on. I remember telling people from other countries about the situation with masks here and they were absolutely shocked that it was so lax. The UK was the same. It was like they were afraid of an issue that was only happening in the US - aggressive anti-masker conspiracy theorists. We have a few of them but they're hardly widespread.

    Then we've had loads of people with the "Aragh! Sure it is grand!" attitude who've been going off on house visits and having parties and in sheebens and younger lots who don't give a ****

    I've an elderly relative who lives in an area of Dublin which has quite gentrified and hipsterised and full of cafes. She won't go out anymore as anytime she does the footpath has been full of people sitting drinking coffees or having pints. So, she's now terrified to set foot outside in case she gets covid and hasn't been outside her door for months. Nobody moves them. Nobody intervenes. It just keeps happening over and over for months.

    Unfortunately, we just aren't going to get a handle on this. Nor is most of Western Europe, the UK nor the US because unfortunately we're short sighted morons who can't or won't do it.

    If the vaccines don't work quickly enough, we are headed into a situation that will just be ruinous in the medium term.

    There's no point even trying to debate it. People don't want to know. They won't do it and they will tell you you're mad if you suggest something like cooling it over Christmas rather than going around and pretending like nothing's wrong.

    We can't just keep driving the number down to 'relatively low' numbers and then letting it swing back again to high numbers over and over. That's all any of the EU countries or the UK have been doing for the last 9 months.

    Everyone needs to calm down a bit. The numbers tonight are horrifying, yes. The fact that are track and trace system has collapsed isn't great either. But the vaccine is going to be rolled out with military precision, and as more vaccines are approved by the EU, the rate at which they are rolled out will increase as well. Before the calm we must endure the storm.


  • #3794
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    What's the likelihood of being identified as positive if you are a close contact? Like 12% or something? So on paper the odds are in my favour.

    Anyone?


  • #3795
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    Anyone?

    It be higher risk now as positivity rates are now so high.

    It really depends how close you were to the positive person, for how long etc.

    Did you have a maskless conversation within 2 metres for over 15 minutes? If so your risk is high if they were shedding virus then.


  • #3796
    AutoTuning
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭AutoTuning


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    Everyone needs to calm down a bit. The numbers tonight are horrifying, yes. The fact that are track and trace system has collapsed isn't great either. But the vaccine is going to be rolled out with military precision, and as more vaccines are approved by the EU, the rate at which they are rolled out will increase as well. Before the calm we must endure the storm.

    I'll believe it when I see it. So far I see the EMA moving along far slower than other regulators, the HSE not having the infrastructure in place to start the damn programme on time and the supply chain's not looking wide or deep enough to be able to meet the demand.

    I think we're risking a lot of people assuming that vaccines will save the day by next week and just letting the whole thing slip into chaos and I suspect that's what's going on in the UK right now.

    How exactly are you supposed to "calm down" ? It's not just going to magically go away because we're all calmed down if people keep behaving like it's not there.


  • #3797
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,065 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40199421.html
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #3798
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    It be higher risk now as positivity rates are now so high.

    It really depends how close you were to the positive person, for how long etc.

    Did you have a maskless conversation within 2 metres for over 15 minutes? If so your risk is high if they were shedding virus then.

    It was well over fifteen minutes but I was more than two meters away. Without a mask. Just hoping I get away with it. What a way to the end the year.


  • #3799
    Ohmeha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,176 ✭✭✭Ohmeha


    National deaths and new case numbers/averages/percentages since December 1st

    Obviously numbers now completely unreliable with unreported cases clogged up in backlogs and close contact positive cases now going to be missed in January so I won't put these up for the next while until reliable daily numbers are announced again

    Day Month Date Year Deaths Weekly 7 Day Av ROI Cases Weekly 5 Day Av 5 Day % 7 Day Av 7 Day % 14 Day Av 14 Day %
    Tuesday December 1st 2020 18 44 6.29 269 1,927 264.60 -5.50% 275.29 -15.41% 300.36 -28.32%
    Wednesday December 2nd 2020 5 43 6.14 270 1,928 277.40 7.69% 275.43 -11.07% 292.57 -29.39%
    Thursday December 3rd 2020 6 46 6.57 183 1,776 265.40 3.75% 253.71 -14.37% 275.00 -31.73%
    Friday December 4th 2020 6 45 6.43 265 1,835 258.60 -4.36% 262.14 -5.90% 270.36 -30.80%
    Saturday December 5th 2020 13 51 7.29 456 2,048 288.60 3.89% 292.57 10.76% 278.36 -28.61%
    Sunday December 6th 2020 0 49 7.00 301 2,050 295.00 11.49% 292.86 12.02% 277.14 -25.88%
    Monday December 7th 2020 0 48 6.86 242 1,986 289.40 4.33% 283.71 5.41% 276.43 -25.82%
    Tuesday December 8th 2020 1 31 4.43 215 1,932 295.80 11.45% 276.00 0.26% 275.64 -25.40%
    Wednesday December 9th 2020 5 31 4.43 227 1,889 288.20 11.45% 269.86 -2.02% 272.64 -24.86%
    Thursday December 10th 2020 15 40 5.71 310 2,016 259.00 -10.26% 288.00 13.51% 270.86 -24.46%
    Friday December 11th 2020 3 37 5.29 313 2,064 261.40 -11.39% 294.86 12.48% 278.50 -17.81%
    Saturday December 12th 2020 3 27 3.86 248 1,856 262.60 -9.26% 265.14 -9.37% 278.86 -13.84%
    Sunday December 13th 2020 1 28 4.00 429 1,984 305.40 3.25% 283.43 -3.22% 288.14 -9.39%
    Monday December 14th 2020 2 30 4.29 264 2,006 312.80 8.54% 286.57 1.01% 285.14 -7.21%
    Tuesday December 15th 2020 8 37 5.29 329 2,120 316.60 22.24% 302.86 9.73% 289.43 -3.64%
    Wednesday December 16th 2020 6 38 5.43 431 2,324 340.20 30.15% 332.00 23.03% 300.93 2.86%
    Thursday December 17th 2020 3 26 3.71 484 2,498 387.40 47.52% 356.86 23.91% 322.43 17.25%
    Friday December 18th 2020 6 29 4.14 582 2,767 418.00 36.87% 395.29 34.06% 345.07 27.64%
    Saturday December 19th 2020 5 31 4.43 527 3,046 470.60 50.45% 435.14 64.12% 350.14 25.79%
    Sunday December 20th 2020 4 34 4.86 764 3,381 557.60 76.12% 483.00 70.41% 383.21 38.27%
    Monday December 21st 2020 0 32 4.57 727 3,844 616.80 81.31% 549.14 91.63% 417.86 51.16%
    Tuesday December 22nd 2020 13 37 5.29 970 4,485 714.00 84.31% 640.71 111.56% 471.79 71.16%
    Wednesday December 23rd 2020 13 44 6.29 938 4,992 785.20 87.85% 713.14 114.80% 522.57 91.67%
    Thursday December 24th 2020 8 49 7.00 922 5,430 864.20 83.64% 775.71 117.37% 566.29 109.07%
    Friday December 25th 2020 2 45 6.43 1,025 5,873 916.40 64.35% 839.00 112.25% 617.14 121.60%
    Saturday December 26th 2020 6 46 6.57 1,296 6,642 1,030.20 67.02% 948.86 118.06% 692.00 148.16%
    Sunday December 27th 2020 4 46 6.57 744 6,622 985.00 37.96% 946.00 95.86% 714.50 147.97%
    Monday December 28th 2020 1 47 6.71 765 6,660 950.40 21.04% 951.43 73.26% 750.29 163.13%
    Tuesday December 29th 2020 9 43 6.14 1,546 7,236 1,075.20 24.42% 1,033.71 61.34% 837.21 189.26%
    Wednesday December 30th 2020 13 43 6.14 1,718 8,016 1,213.80 32.45% 1,145.14 60.58% 929.14 208.76%
    Thursday December 31st 2020 12 47 6.71 1,620 8,714 1,278.60 24.11% 1,244.86 60.48% 1,010.29 213.34%


  • #3800
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,065 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    4,000 backlog, how is that, has our testing fceked up again
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #3801
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,065 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    490 in hospitals with 42 in ICU
    https://forumofgames.com/




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  • #3802
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    AutoTuning wrote: »
    I'll believe it when I see it. So far I see the EMA moving along far slower than other regulators, the HSE not having the infrastructure in place to start the damn programme on time and the supply chain's not looking wide or deep enough to be able to meet the demand.

    I think we're risking a lot of people assuming that vaccines will save the day by next week and just letting the whole thing slip into chaos and I suspect that's what's going on in the UK right now.

    Well imo that's verging on cynicism. I was very impressed by the vaccine rollout pdfs the HSE unveiled a few weeks ago. I would suggest giving them a google if you have time.


  • #3803
    Just Saying
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 306 ✭✭Just Saying


    marno21 wrote: »
    These are the Christmas Day positives.

    It can only go down from here. Opportunities for community transmission have vanished. Keep the schools closed for an extra week and let this complete mess flush it’s way through the system

    Seriously???

    The cases will only come down when the R goes below 1 which is unlikely for quite a while.The positivity rate when only those with symptoms are tested is surely heading for 25% or more.The numbers of close contacts per case is over 6..Exponential growth is out of control.Household guidelines are being ignored by vast numbers.Hospital and ICU numbers are spiralling yet you think closing the schools will flush the cases through the system???

    Quite bizarre.


  • #3804
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    It was well over fifteen minutes but I was more than two meters away. Without a mask. Just hoping I get away with it. What a way to the end the year.

    Covid can spread beyond two meters.


  • #3805
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,187 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    Ironhead93 wrote: »
    Anyone hazard a guess when restrictions might be eased? Even into a level 5 minus? My guess is mid-late Feb


    I think that's far too optimistic, more like mid March to have a hope of going to Level 4. The vaccination of those in nursing homes and frontline medical staff will ease the pressure on the health system.


  • #3806
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    4,000 backlog, how is that, has our testing fceked up again

    The test and trace system has basically collapsed. The figures are more or less worthless now. It could be northwards of 5k tomorrow alone god knows what by next week


  • #3807
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Covid can spread beyond two meters.

    But with a substantially lower risk of that happening


  • #3808
    AutoTuning
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭AutoTuning


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    Well imo that's verging on cynicism. I was very impressed by the vaccine rollout pdfs the HSE unveiled a few weeks ago. I would suggest giving them a google if you have time.

    I'm highly cynical about the HSE. Every experience I have had with them in recent years has been a fiasco. I have basically zero confidence in them and that is based on my experience, not some irrational cynicism.

    Until I see the vaccines actually rolling out at some degree of pace, I am not going to take some rosey view of an organisation that couldn't organise a p*** up in a brewery.

    I have private health insurance not because I am a snob, but because I don't trust the HSE. It's as simple as that.


  • #3809
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,097 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Something has gone seriously wrong with both the testing, track and trace and modeling in the last week. Were the test centres short staffed for Christmas? Did the public not go for tests as they wanted to wait till after Christmas? Were the demographics older and therefore more hospitalisations.
    I think something more complex happened than simply blaming socialising and a so called new strain. The swab numbers today are crazy but it also makes me wonder how were there so many infectious people on Christmas day without realising they were ill. And where in turn had they been the week before that they became infected themselves.


  • #3810
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    I think that's far too optimistic, more like mid March to have a hope of going to Level 4. The vaccination of those in nursing homes and frontline medical staff will ease the pressure on the health system.

    I would be surprised if non-essential retail remains closed beyond 15 Feb tbh.

    Obviously dining etc wont be happening until April/May


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  • #3811
    gally74
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    4,000 backlog, how is that, has our testing fceked up again

    Sounds like an excel issue


This discussion has been closed.
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