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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #3182
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    prunudo wrote: »
    I'm still confused with the sudden rate in hospital admissions. I can it is happening but it doesn't tie in with overly high case numbers 10-14 days ago.

    hospital admissions are the best real indicator of what way this thing is going. case numbers can be affected by all sorts of things, christmas lag, lot of people not showing for tests, hiding symptoms, etc.


  • #3183
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Deleted User wrote: »
    That chart is noisy to read. Might be clearer to show a single line with the difference in admissions vs discharges for each day. Net increase in hospital numbers, will plot above and below zero.

    sure, but google an example of what you mean and post it here so I don't waste my time


  • #3184
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    ;)

    Hi!

    I've been looking for someone to share this concern with. For friendship, or maybe more.

    I keep saying it's too soon to be seeing the numbers we're seeing. And it's getting no traction.
    Either we missed a ****load of cases weeks ago, or the hospitalisation rate has jumped.

    Maybe a combination of both. Younger people partying and mixing before Christmas and then having contact with older relatives in the period before and now during Christmas.
    Older people letting their guard down.


  • #3185
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    froog wrote: »
    hospital admissions are the best real indicator of what way this thing is going. case numbers can be affected by all sorts of things, christmas lag, lot of people not showing for tests, hiding symptoms, etc.

    I think even admissions can get a bit fuzzy when they start debating about who gets in.
    There is really **** all pure data. Christmas ****ed up the swabs, and everything is murky but obviously ****ed right now.

    I don't know what you'd base a projection on now. It's all nonsense.


  • #3186
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Golfwidow wrote: »
    GP sent family member with sore throat for a test. The others were close contacts. They were sent for testing by HSE. Two of them only registered positive after their second test ... and they had isolated from each other once the first positive case was known. Their first test was 2 days after diagnosis of first positive case whereas the second test was 8 days after diagnosis of the first positive case.

    Maybe the new HSE policy of only testing in day 5 makes sense.


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  • #3187
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Nothing wrong with the message, but insulting all and sundry in how you say it is not exactly helping.
    I'm lost.. Are you saying Tony was insulting, or is it in reference to something else which I've missed?


  • #3188
    Golfwidow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 ✭✭Golfwidow


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Maybe the new HSE policy of only testing in day 5 makes sense.

    Yes, I think so. I just hope that most close contacts would have the responsibility to isolate/restrict movements while waiting for that test.


  • #3189
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Ficheall wrote: »
    I'm lost.. Are you saying Tony was insulting, or is it in reference to something else which I've missed?

    There have been a few testy exchanges today/this evening even with posters who are broadly like minded.

    So while the messaging is not without merit.......

    to be fair to Tony he graciously apologised.


  • #3190
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Ficheall wrote: »
    I'm lost.. Are you saying Tony was insulting, or is it in reference to something else which I've missed?

    I might have accused everyone who's seen a pub in the last year of being a nazi.

    I was in a bad mood.


  • #3191
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    sure, but google an example of what you mean and post it here so I don't waste my time

    Actually no need, I suppose what I'm asking for is an abstraction of the hospitalisations charts.

    537726.png


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  • #3192
    MOR316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,243 ✭✭✭MOR316


    Stheno wrote: »
    No. Why should I? Tony spends half his time posting graphs with no explanation

    If I did that in work I'd be crucified

    Which Tony are we talking about here?


  • #3193
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Actually no need, I suppose what I'm asking for is an abstraction of the hospitalisations charts.

    That's essentially showing admissions minus discharges

    Not pretty.
    Basically, on the way up a peak like this there's no way discharges can keep up.


  • #3194
    William Faithful Deer
    Posts: 0 ✭ William Faithful Deer


    Happydays2020 wrote: »
    Interesting that Alan Kelly is proposing that there is a daily update on the numbers vaccinated. I think that is an excellent idea in terms of showing people there is hope but also keeping the pressure on the HSE to actually deliver.

    To be fair I would have thought that presenting that metric should be standard and there is nothing exceptional about the suggestion.

    There needs to be some sort of KPI so we can monitor progress against as we gear up towards normality.


  • #3195
    rob316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,670 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Gyms are absolutely ****ed financially, January is there bread and butter for sign ups. I was speaking to a friend who co-owns a gym last week and he said it's a bridge too far if there is another lockdown, they don't see themselves opening again.


  • #3196
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I think even admissions can get a bit fuzzy when they start debating about who gets in.
    There is really **** all pure data. Christmas ****ed up the swabs, and everything is murky but obviously ****ed right now.

    I don't know what you'd base a projection on now. It's all nonsense.

    they don't put you in hospital if you just tested positive for covid, you go there if you are quite sick and need treatment. the dramatic increase in covid admissions is alarming to say the least.


  • #3197
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    That's essentially showing admissions minus discharges

    Yeah, so no need for a custom single series chart to combine admissions and discharges.


  • #3198
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    prunudo wrote: »
    I'm still confused with the sudden rate in hospital admissions. I can see it is happening but it doesn't tie in with overly high case numbers 10-14 days ago.
    Average time to onset of symptoms is 5 days, not 10-14 days. Test not necessarily done on day 1 of infection or day 1 of symptoms. Positive swab could be taken when patient is already at day 3, 4, 5 and even higher of illness.

    It is not the case that positive swab result is confirmed on day 1 after infection and then fourteen days later patient becomes symptomatic and is admitted. Infection occurs and onset of symptoms, if occur, can happen anywhere as little as three days after infection. Testing might not be done until already many days after infection.

    Admission to hospital could happen same day as positive swab or day or two or week or even more later.


  • #3199
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Kallie Future Marinade wrote: »
    To be fair I would have thought that presenting that metric should be standard and there is nothing exceptional about the suggestion.

    There needs to be some sort of KPI so we can monitor progress against as we gear up towards normality.

    I agree. It needs to happen on my view.


  • #3200
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    rob316 wrote: »
    Gyms are absolutely ****ed financially, January is there bread and butter for sign ups.

    Yikes, didn't think of that.

    I've been that guy several years that signs up in Jan and isn't seen again beyond mid Feb. Generally prefer outdoors when the evenings lengthen. I did go back to one gym around October but my membership card didn't work going in - "we changed those over 6 months ago!".


  • #3201
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,399 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    That's essentially showing admissions minus discharges

    Not pretty.
    Basically, on the way up a peak like this there's no way discharges can keep up.

    Back in mid December we had ~200 in hospitals and then just after Christmas Day we've seen a surge of admissions like back in March. However, back in March we were starting from zero. This time, it's starting from a higher point (200ish), but stands to reason those 200 will eventually be discharged, so I'd expect discharges to be much higher/more frequent than March/April.


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  • #3202
    oldtimeyfella
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 382 ✭✭oldtimeyfella


    rob316 wrote: »
    Gyms are absolutely ****ed financially, January is there bread and butter for sign ups. I was speaking to a friend who co-owns a gym last week and he said it's a bridge too far if there is another lockdown, they don't see themselves opening again.


    "Non essential business is non essential, more at 11!"


  • #3203
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    rob316 wrote: »
    Gyms are absolutely ****ed financially, January is there bread and butter for sign ups. I was speaking to a friend who co-owns a gym last week and he said it's a bridge too far if there is another lockdown, they don't see themselves opening again.

    I think alot of businesses will be the same. I hope we get an end soon. I hope the vaccines give sterilising immunity. We need something good for 2021.


  • #3204
    Renjit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    rob316 wrote: »
    Gyms are absolutely ****ed financially, January is there bread and butter for sign ups. I was speaking to a friend who co-owns a gym last week and he said it's a bridge too far if there is another lockdown, they don't see themselves opening again.

    Big players will survive but local businesses will be hit worst with no buffer remaining. It's a great opportunity for big players to wipe the competition out without doing much. Acquisitions to follow at throwaway prices.


  • #3205
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Anyone bother getting antibody tests that feels they had symptoms over last few months?


  • #3206
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    I was thinking, if UK is ahead of the game on vaccinations and we start to see significant numbers in NI protected, that will hopefully see some positives for border counties, as an indirect result.


  • #3207
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Back in mid December we had ~200 in hospitals and then just after Christmas Day we've seen a surge of admissions like back in March. However, back in March we were starting from zero. This time, it's starting from a higher point (200ish), but stands to reason those 200 will eventually be discharged, so I'd expect discharges to be much higher/more frequent than March/April.

    If you blink twice then I'd be sending you home with a clean bill.


  • #3208
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    WoollyRedHat wrote: »
    I was thinking, if UK is ahead of the game on vaccinations and we start to see significant numbers in NI protected, that will hopefully see some positives for border counties, as an indirect result.

    That would be a positive outcome. Unfortunately it seems that the flow is quite negative currently.


  • #3209
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Back in mid December we had ~200 in hospitals and then just after Christmas Day we've seen a surge of admissions like back in March. However, back in March we were starting from zero. This time, it's starting from a higher point (200ish), but stands to reason those 200 will eventually be discharged, so I'd expect discharges to be much higher/more frequent than March/April.

    Was it really zero back in March or was it the case that there was undiagnosed Covid already in the hospital system?


  • #3210
    Psychedelic Hedgehog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 489 ✭✭Psychedelic Hedgehog


    For definite there was undiagnosed covid cases in hospitals. I'm convinced my wife was one of those.


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  • #3211
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,648 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Amirani wrote: »
    Older people infected in the past 3-7 days are likely candidates for hospitalisation.

    It doesn't take you 14 days for you to get sick enough to be hospitalised. Look at the famous cases like Trump, Boris etc. It's a few days.
    Boris showed symptoms on March 26th and tested positive on March 27th. He wasn't admitted to hospital until April 5th, 9 days after showing symptoms and God knows how long after getting infected.

    Trump is a different story. Most of what happened with him doesn't add up. He spent 3 days in hospital yet was given 2 theraputics which are normally given to people with severe covid-19 or in intensive care.


This discussion has been closed.
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