Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

1…7677798182…330

Comments

  • #2342
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Downlinz wrote: »
    Positive Swabs
    2,867
    in the last 24 hours

    Positivity Rate
    16.4%
    in the last 24 hours

    Swabs Completed
    17,484
    in the last 24 hours

    7-day now over 10%, chart looks shocking. All indicators pointing to something we haven't seen so far I think. Capacity maxed out now.
    Paul Reid: " Test and trace can't keep up now, beyond any capacity you could have built"
    537641.png


  • #2343
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Capacity is now 25K on-island and an offshore contract for 2K more. New lab opening here soon. NPHET recommended that they should now test once on Day 5 for close contacts.


  • #2344
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    khalessi wrote: »
    Why dont they?

    Some of them may be repeat positive tests so they will be discounted


  • #2345
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Very high that
    Yeah and we are very close to hitting capacity of the testing system and as Reid says it's now down to behaviours.


  • #2346
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Testing of close contacts has changed to a test on day 5 following NPHET advice


  • Advertisement
  • #2347
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 55,029 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Testing of close contacts has changed to a test on day 5 following NPHET advice

    Since 5 days is the average incubation period, I am guessing that NPHET are hoping that a test on day 5 will catch most cases in close contacts.


  • #2348
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    awec wrote: »
    Since 5 days is the average incubation period, I am guessing that NPHET are hoping that a test on day 5 will catch most cases in close contacts.

    Yup, they're saying its the optimal time for a test appearently


  • #2349
    SpacialNeeds
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 203 ✭✭SpacialNeeds


    I'm sorry now to come careening back into the thread when I said I was out, but Colm Henry said it doesn't make sense to focus on Track and Trace because it only serves to distract from what needs to happen. And gave this stupid look.

    What the hell is that about.

    Is he trying to say that it's our fault the track and trace isn't working because we're not behaving?

    People I know who only met one person over Christmas and need to get a test can't and are just being told to isolate, thus their contacts aren't being traced either and cases are being missed at an unprecedented level.

    17% positivity indicates that the level of infection in the community is absolutely out of control. This is awful.


  • #2350
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,854 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Stheno wrote: »
    Apparently a lot of that may be patients who went home for Christmas and are now back

    Never knew this was a thing tbh

    This is not true .
    Where did you get this from ?


  • #2351
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,150 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    awec wrote: »
    Since 5 days is the average incubation period, I am guessing that NPHET are hoping that a test on day 5 will catch most cases in close contacts.

    I think it's about replacing the 2 tests to try to minimise workload of contact tracers arranging tests and swabbers doing the tests. But yeah guess that's probably why 5 day mark was picked alright.


  • Advertisement
  • #2352
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    SpacialNeeds wrote: »
    I'm sorry now to come careening back into the thread when I said I was out, but Colm Henry said it doesn't make sense to focus on Track and Trace because it only serves to distract from what needs to happen. And gave this stupid look.

    What the hell is that about.

    Is he trying to say that it's our fault the track and trace isn't working because we're not behaving?

    People I know who only met one person over Christmas and need to get a test can't and are just being told to isolate, thus their contacts aren't being traced either and cases are being missed at an unprecedented level.

    17% positivity indicates that the level of infection in the community is absolutely out of control. This is awful.
    It was an addition to Reid's point about us being near testing capacity and that we can't just keep expanding that. It's down to what people do, not the testing system. 17% is good news because it means we are finding a lot of cases. We should start to see that number ease reasonably soon.


  • #2353
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    This is not true .
    Where did you get this from ?

    Supposition on twitter which is why I said apparently and may in my post :)

    Delighted you got your vaccine btw


  • #2354
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I think it's about replacing the 2 tests to try to minimise workload of contact tracers arranging tests and swabbers doing the tests. But yeah guess that's probably why 5 day mark was picked alright.
    They said they get 15% in the earlier tests but only about 3% on Day 7.


  • #2355
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    At some point all capacities will max out if the R number is sustained at more than 1, the more above 1 it is the quicker that will happen.


  • #2356
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They said they get 15% in the earlier tests but only about 3% on Day 7.

    Loads of people were also not showing up for the second test


  • #2357
    SpacialNeeds
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 203 ✭✭SpacialNeeds


    is_that_so wrote: »
    It was an addition to Reid's point about us being near testing capacity and that we can't just keep expanding that. It's down to what people do, not the testing system.
    The testing system was never fit for purpose and that's part of the reason we haven't contained this. It is based on the idea that hopefully the spread won't get out of control if only the bare minimum is done to find cases. That's obviously not going to cut it and now we're all paying the price. With the exception of a tiny bit very noticeable minority, people are being responsible, adhering to the guidelines. Unfortunately that's not good enough if the tracking and trace has absolutely no idea where the risks are. Restaurants, cafes and bars, all the shops and salons open over Christmas. Every single one of them basically completely unsupervised as an area of transmission where untold numbers of people picked this up and brought it home.

    Although we have no idea. The opposite is as likely, based on the data they've managed to collect.

    Even though clearly they were massive contributors, at least the data doesn't show it. Let's just stick our heads back in the sand and pretend going out wherever we want without is all safe and lovely. So long as we're spending money who cares if one in every two hundred of us end up dead.


  • #2358
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,854 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Great news, glad to see its being used where its most needed. Second dose in a few weeks and you'll have a weight lifted off your shoulders.

    Do let us know if you get a fever or any of the other usuals after a vaccine

    On such a high probably won't come down enough to feel anything ;)

    I would be afraid to , tbh as the anti vaxx crowd would jump all over it !:)
    Usually get a ripper of a sore arm and a bit achy for a day or two after the flu jab so sort of expecting the same here .
    I am considered high risk, which was very difficult work wise, and as my husband is also after a cancer op this year, I have been very anxious to get this asap .
    Best news ever !
    Thanks for all the good wishes x


  • #2359
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Paul Reid: "Widespread community transmission"
    Colm Henry: "Positivity rates too high for mitigation of test and trace"
    Paul Reid: "15K to 25K you just can't build capacity to chase what's happening in the community"

    Sounds like it'll be overwhelmed in coming days. They are saying they need to prioritise other actions to get community transmission under control.


  • #2360
    Icyseanfitz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,532 ✭✭✭Icyseanfitz


    Those swab numbers are scary as hell, huge growth happening across the board.


  • #2361
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Good question put about vaccine roll-out.


  • Advertisement
  • #2362
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Sounds like it'll be overwhelmed in coming days. They are saying they need to prioritise other actions to get community transmission under control.

    People who test positive should be proactive and tell their close contacts anyway imo


  • #2363
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Yes, there are dickheads out there who just don't care and put everyone around them at risk but at the end of the day the crisis we are now going in to was not helped by the loosening of restrictions despite advice. The government has to own those decisions.

    All we can do now is hope the health service will cope under the increases in admissions and in to ICU.


  • #2364
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Sounds like it'll be overwhelmed in coming days. They are saying they need to prioritise other actions to get community transmission under control.

    https://twitter.com/amymorgangp/status/1344241302913896449?s=19


  • #2365
    Longing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Longing


    Cavan General Hospital is been overwhelmed with people just turning up in A&E. Colleague of mine said the amount of people waiting and been also told to go to there GP. Can't say if it Covid related.


  • #2366
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,854 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    SpacialNeeds wrote: »
    I'm sorry now to come careening back into the thread when I said I was out, but Colm Henry said it doesn't make sense to focus on Track and Trace because it only serves to distract from what needs to happen. And gave this stupid look.

    What the hell is that about.

    Is he trying to say that it's our fault the track and trace isn't working because we're not behaving?

    People I know who only met one person over Christmas and need to get a test can't and are just being told to isolate, thus their contacts aren't being traced either and cases are being missed at an unprecedented level.

    17% positivity indicates that the level of infection in the community is absolutely out of control. This is awful.

    But if they only met one person ,they just let that person know?
    Obviously with increasing numbers the track and trace system is under pressure .
    There isn't a never ending supply of people to do this or other jobs that will inevitably be overwhelmed with increasing numbers .
    Every country is under pressure and having to cut its cloth depending on numbers and resources.


  • #2367
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    SpacialNeeds wrote: »
    The testing system was never fit for purpose and that's part of the reason we haven't contained this. It is based on the idea that hopefully the spread won't get out of control if only the bare minimum is done to find cases. That's obviously not going to cut it and now we're all paying the price. With the exception of a tiny bit very noticeable minority, people are being responsible, adhering to the guidelines. Unfortunately that's not good enough if the tracking and trace has absolutely no idea where the risks are. Restaurants, cafes and bars, all the shops and salons open over Christmas. Every single one of them basically completely unsupervised as an area of transmission where untold numbers of people picked this up and brought it home.

    Although we have no idea. The opposite is as likely, based on the data they've managed to collect.

    Even though clearly they were massive contributors, at least the data doesn't show it. Let's just stick our heads back in the sand and pretend going out wherever we want without is all safe and lovely. So long as we're spending money who cares if one in every two hundred of us end up dead.

    We have people with close contacts of up to 30 and averaging 15-20. Contact tracing can't manage that long-term, people's behaviour will. Not sure what you imagine fit for purpose looks like. We can now do closer to 30,000 if we need.


  • #2368
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    R0 according to Henry is 1.8.


  • #2369
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    is_that_so wrote: »
    We have people with close contacts of up to 30 and averaging 15-20. Contact tracing can't manage that long-term, people's behaviour will. Not sure what you imagine fit for purpose looks like. We can now do closer to 30,000 if we need.

    Is it just me or do people think wtf when they see that amount of close contacts?


  • #2370
    SpacialNeeds
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 203 ✭✭SpacialNeeds


    is_that_so wrote: »
    We have people with close contacts of up to 30 and averaging 15-20. Contact tracing can't manage that long-term, people's behaviour will. Not sure what you imagine fit for purpose looks like. We can now do closer to 30,000 if we need.
    Technically so, with our alleged positive cases being around 1500 per day, the testing system should be able to handle an average of 15 contacts per person. They're plainly not doing that many though and looking for any way out of testing and tracing people.


  • Advertisement
  • #2371
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Stheno wrote: »
    Is it just me or do people think wtf when they see that amount of close contacts?
    No, that sounds like all the close contacts I've had since March!


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement