Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

It's hard to know what the right way to go is right now but I'm siding with more severe restrictions. The level 5 got us down to around 200 cases in six weeks. We have higher numbers now so it might take longer to get that far. We went up pretty quickly again after we relaxed restrictions too.
I think I'd be up for a more severe lockdown like last April/May in the hope we could get the numbers down to double digits and not have to have restrictions again as we might have enough people vaccinated before it gets a chance to get out of hand again.
I think I'd prefer that to rolling level 5 restrictions every six or so weeks.

Arghus wrote: »

What's even more doubly astonishing is that a lot of the same people will rage against restrictions and attempts to suppress the disease on the grounds that they're thinking about the people not receiving treatment in hospital - and they completely miss the point that if you don't suppress the disease in the community first and foremost there's even less chance of non-Covid care continuing and less chance of non-Covid patients receiving the level of care required. The complete illogic of that argument is always frustrating to read. People who require hospital treatment aren't helped by increasing levels of Covid.

And some of them - not all, but some - downplay rising case numbers and hospital admittences as being only to do with outbreaks in hospitals, which is false to begin with, but is equally galling because that's then used to justify a blithe attitude towards the levels of risk for the general puplic and to downplay the seriousness of the situation and to rail against the efforts to suppress the disease.

Less restrictions, equals more Covid, which equals less hospital treatments and patient care across the board.

You seem to be living in 2020 - 2021 is vaccines, a real game changer. What we need to do until then is to get and hold the numbers at a far lower number. That I reckon is in and around 200-300 cases a day.

jackboy wrote: »

Yes, unless the numbers are down close to 50 a day before that. Once we get anywhere near paddy’s day there will be panic that party time will cause another spike so pressure will be on to extend lockdown till after that.

They wont aim for 50 cases a day as they know now that is impossible with schools open. Last level 5 lockdown showed that.

Jaded Walker wrote: »

It's hard to know what the right way to go is right now but I'm siding with more severe restrictions. The level 5 got us down to around 200 cases in six weeks. We have higher numbers now so it might take longer to get that far. We went up pretty quickly again after we relaxed restrictions too.
I think I'd be up for a more severe lockdown like last April/May in the hope we could get the numbers down to double digits and not have to have restrictions again as we might have enough people vaccinated before it gets a chance to get out of hand again.
I think I'd prefer that to rolling level 5 restrictions every six or so weeks.

Level 3 actually got us down to about 400 very fast and Level 5 did the rest.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I don’t see hospitality opening until March at least but would expect that retail will be closed for 6 weeks. Much will depend on vaccination availability and roll out.

Some posters don't seem to be taking this into account at all. Once we get sufficient supplies we should start to see some indicators, even from February.

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

When you read hospital admission in the context of covid. The obvious interpretation is that people have presented to hospital with covid symptoms and were admitted because they required hospitalisation due to said symptoms. But this is not the case.

From what she understands, the term admission does not necessarily mean someone has presented with covid symptoms. Nor does it mean someone has just presented to hospital for the first time. They may already be in the hospital or returning for follow up. And they have tested positive without any complaints of covid like symptoms. A lot are asymptomatic. Of course some are presenting specifically with covid like symptoms. But a lot are not. For example, there are 2 covid admissions in her hospital but the reported figures are much higher. That is 2 specifically admitted with breathing difficulties etc. Similarly, her understanding of discharge does not necessarily mean the person has left the hospital. They are just no longer counted as a covid patient in hospital. They may be physically discharged or they may be moved back to a non covid ward for the original purpose of hospital admittance.

The reporting of admissions and hospitalizations is confusing and multi factored for the reasons you've mentioned, but I think dismissing or downplaying the number of people in hospital with Covid, just because they dont have the classic Covid symptoms is a bit misplaced.

Unless you've seen these patients scans and blood work you dont know what effect Covid is having on all these patients. They have blood clotting problems, increased inflammatory markers, cardiac problems. Whether they were admitted for Covid or caught it in the hospital, it can still contribute to their illness and requires extra resources to treat them.

Seems harsh to always close down barbers/hairdressers when they seem so low risk.

RandomViewer wrote: »

Even with the vaccine you could still be a carrier, there'll only be 100k or so vaccinated by February so not a hope, June or July at earliest

You're looking at current supplies and a plan that has barely started, based on those supplies. Moderna will be approved next week and Oxford in the next while, two months at worst. That should up our weekly supply to 100K+.

is_that_so wrote: »

You seem to be living in 2020 - 2021 is vaccines, a real game changer. What we need to do until then is to get and hold the numbers at a far lower number. That I reckon is in and around 200-300 cases a day.

Yes, I am aware of the vaccines - but it isn't going to solve our problem immediately. You seem to be living in some space where our immediate short term problems are magically over.

We'll still have to deal with this wave and the aftermath. Vaccines are not going to change things this week, this month, next month, even possibly until well into March at the earliest. And that might be optimistic, I haven't seen a single poster on here mention the possibility that the current wave might slow down or complicate our best laid plans for vaccination.

Vaccination is our eventual ticket out of this mess, but this current, rapidly worsening, situation still has to be dealt with.

Back in November/ early December whenever NPHET warned people that there was still a need for people to be cautious going forward and there was was a real risk of a third wave pointing out in here that they were 100% correct - which they were - was like swimming against a tsunami of reactive nonsense - endless posts about how Tony was out to ruin the country and destroy people's craic over Christmas for no reason and also endless posts about why were they so negative when a vaccine was around the corner.

Looks like 0 day and 7 day tests for close contacts have been scrapped for 1 test on day 5.

landofthetree wrote: »

Seems harsh to always close down barbers/hairdressers when they seem so low risk.

Are schools not the 3rd biggest driver on that list?

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Are schools not the 3rd biggest driver on that list?

No schools are safe;);)