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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #1322
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Stheno wrote: »
    And contact tracers are having trouble getting people with UK numbers to answer their phonea
    Friend of mine was contacted a week after flying back from the US to say he'd been a close contact on the flight. He had already had it anyway, but it's too late at that stage anyway. Plus they don't contact the entire plane - only people seated within X rows. A lot of the contact tracing doesn't seem fit for purpose - though people not complying obviously doesn't help.


  • #1323
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Stheno wrote: »
    You'd probably need at least four tbh

    And I could see that then being extended until the nursing homes are vaccinated

    I don't know. There has to be an epidemiological sweet spot where a break in connections between humans does the largest amount to prevent on-going viral transfer and achieves the shortest amount of lockdown. I am not talking about eradication or even getting numbers down to May levels - let it still be in the hundreds but catch this growing wave now and lower viral spread. I thought contagiousness was 5 to 14 days approximately. If everyone (or as many as possible) stands stock still for 14 days surely one could hit that sweet spot with some degree of effectiveness?


  • #1324
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    It's been a week now since cases deviated from swabs in a big way.

    Confidence needs to be restored in testing capacity and reporting, Christmas or no Christmas.
    Many GPs are either not open are using locums over Xmas. As a result, many people who got positive swabs won't be officially reported to the HSE until yesterday/today.

    We may see a bad day or two this week over 2,500 cases.


  • #1325
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Shutting down "non essential retail" strikes me as really unfair. It puts lots of people out of work, and I have seen very little evidence both here & abroad it's where cases are occurring.

    On the other hand, if it is households mixing that's causing the problem then I'd personally be happy to see the 5k limit brought back. None of this happens with enforcement however, and that's been missing throughout this. €100 on-the spot fines would help.

    We're clearly going to see a huge surge. This surge is baked in, there's nothing we can do about this now. The problem is we're surrounded by infected people who are currently in the asymptomatic stage.

    If I was the government I'd probably say 2 weeks of the most extreme lockdown - 2km limit, no schools, Guards everywhere. At least by the end of the 2 weeks most of those who got infected at Christmas will be symptomatic and visible.


  • #1326
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    2 weeks might not be enough but 2 weeks of a lockdown like March would be seriously expensive for the exchequer

    A knowledgeable pal of mine told me the Irish economy has coped okay with all of this.


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  • #1327
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Friend of mine was contacted a week after flying back from the US to say he'd been a close contact on the flight. He had already had it anyway, but it's too late at that stage anyway. Plus they don't contact the entire plane - only people seated within X rows. A lot of the contact tracing doesn't seem fit for purpose - though people not complying obviously doesn't help.

    Proper contact tracing with the sort of numbers we've been having isn't really possible. Proper surveillance with current case loads would take hundreds or thousands of trained public health doctors, we've got nothing close to that.


  • #1328
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    A knowledgeable pal of mine told me the Irish economy has coped okay with all of this.

    Best to ask your knowledgeable pal again in 12 months.


  • #1329
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    hmmm wrote: »
    Shutting down "non essential retail" strikes me as really unfair. It puts lots of people out of work, and I have seen very little evidence both here & abroad it's where cases are occurring.

    On the other hand, if it is households mixing that's causing the problem then I'd personally be happy to see the 5k limit brought back. None of this happens with enforcement however, and that's been missing throughout this. €100 on-the spot fines would help.

    We're clearly going to see a huge surge. This surge is baked in, there's nothing we can do about this now. The problem is we're surrounded by infected people who are currently in the asymptomatic stage.

    If I was the government I'd probably say 2 weeks of the most extreme lockdown - 2km limit, no schools, Guards everywhere. At least by the end of the 2 weeks most of those who got infected at Christmas will be symptomatic and visible.

    Enforcement is the issue though


  • #1330
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,979 ✭✭✭growleaves


    If they can bring the lockdown right up to the beginning of next summer they can take credit for the summer sunshine. With low numbers in May, June, July, August we can all say "See I told you locking down Jan to April was necessary." Lol is there anything science can't do?


  • #1331
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    No, other places like NI fell for that thinking. Two weeks won't break the cycle.

    Northern Ireland has been terrible though. Like you I have reason to know it quite well. There was really shoddy mask wearing and social distancing and quite the sentiment of believing it all to be over blown. I was surprised at medical people I know there completely hand waving it. They have never really tried anything strict, except perhaps now that they are literally almost the worst place in the world for Covid. Just my observations personally (obviously), but it has been completely different north of the border.


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  • #1332
    FlubberJones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭FlubberJones


    If they want to shut down again and looking at this thread seems a lot of other people do too... They should do it properly, shut the schools and the non essentials and everything else they deem "causing a problem". Also ram home the 5km distance thing and fine people travelling for sh*tty reasons. One in all in, make EVERYONE miserable.


  • #1333
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,047 ✭✭✭✭fits


    I’d hope it will peak by the end of the week.

    Anecdotally I know but a lot of people changed plans for Christmas when they saw the way numbers were going.


  • #1334
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Friend of mine was contacted a week after flying back from the US to say he'd been a close contact on the flight. He had already had it anyway, but it's too late at that stage anyway. Plus they don't contact the entire plane - only people seated within X rows. A lot of the contact tracing doesn't seem fit for purpose - though people not complying obviously doesn't help.

    Good job he would have been restricting his movement for 14 days, as he was required to do, anyway.


  • #1335
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    fits wrote: »
    I’d hope it will peak by the end of the week.

    Anecdotally I know but a lot of people changed plans for Christmas when they saw the way numbers were going.

    Same here, we changed our plans last week

    Nothing major


  • #1336
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,137 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    hmmm wrote: »
    Shutting down "non essential retail" strikes me as really unfair. It puts lots of people out of work, and I have seen very little evidence both here & abroad it's where cases are occurring.

    On the other hand, if it is households mixing that's causing the problem then I'd personally be happy to see the 5k limit brought back. None of this happens with enforcement however, and that's been missing throughout this. €100 on-the spot fines would help.

    We're clearly going to see a huge surge. This surge is baked in, there's nothing we can do about this now. The problem is we're surrounded by infected people who are currently in the asymptomatic stage.

    If I was the government I'd probably say 2 weeks of the most extreme lockdown - 2km limit, no schools, Guards everywhere. At least by the end of the 2 weeks most of those who got infected at Christmas will be symptomatic and visible.

    Very hard to enforce 2km limit and most would not respect it anyway. Guards everywhere makes no difference when they have no power. Not disagreeing with the idea just impossible to implement without total buy in which is well lost now.


  • #1337
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,024 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    So does anyone know what capacity is left in hospitals at the moment?
    A poster yesterday said we had over 800 in hospitals with covid at the peak, what percentage where we at then?
    Hospital beds have been reduced now so how many beds does that leave us with now?


  • #1338
    jojofizzio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,287 ✭✭✭jojofizzio


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Northern Ireland has been terrible though. Like you I have reason to know it quite well. There was really shoddy mask wearing and social distancing and quite the sentiment of believing it all to be over blown. I was surprised at medical people I know there completely hand waving it. They have never really tried anything strict, except perhaps now that they are literally almost the worst place in the world for Covid. Just my observations personally (obviously), but it has been completely different north of the border.

    This^^^
    I couldn’t get over how laissez faire thery were north of the border as numbers climbed daily,the government just sat there and did SFA ...even in comparison to their lords and masters across the water,(who were ridiculously slow at reacting to spiralling numbers)they looked completely non-plussed by a rapidly-worsening situation....Wales and Scotland leaders at least appeared to react in some way to the changing situation....
    “An all-island approach” is what we keep hearing from our lot....fat chance given the carry-on north of the border to date


  • #1339
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    fits wrote: »
    I’d hope it will peak by the end of the week.

    Anecdotally I know but a lot of people changed plans for Christmas when they saw the way numbers were going.
    Christmas was a huge super-spreading event. People who get infected on Christmas day might not show symptoms for another 2 weeks. Many will be infectious already and not know it and are continuing to meet people, travel on public transport etc.

    I can't see it peaking by the end of this week - end of next week maybe, but that would only happen if the infectious people can be isolated. A 2 or 3 week timeout may be an option.


  • #1340
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Best to ask your knowledgeable pal again in 12 months.

    How is this any different to people saying “just wait 2 weeks” when hospital numbers take a jump?

    Heard the same in March about the economy, people saying there wouldn’t be enough money to fund a health service after the lockdown went from 3 to 5 weeks, every pub would be out of business, etc. I’m not saying there’s been no impact to the economy, but a lot like the predictions of bodies in the streets, we’re in a grand position considering the circumstances.


  • #1341
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    fits wrote: »
    I’d hope it will peak by the end of the week.

    Anecdotally I know but a lot of people changed plans for Christmas when they saw the way numbers were going.
    Even if they did, you're still realistically looking at the end of next week before numbers start to recover.

    Just batten down the hatches for the next 7-10 days and prepare for the storm.


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  • #1342
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,047 ✭✭✭✭fits


    hmmm wrote: »
    Christmas was a huge super-spreading event. People who get infected on Christmas day might not show symptoms for another 2 weeks. Many will be infectious already and not know it and are continuing to meet people, travel on public transport etc.

    I can't see it peaking by the end of this week - end of next week maybe, but that would only happen if the infectious people can be isolated. A 2 or 3 week timeout may be an option.

    Well we will see.

    I took a drive around county today. There’s no one out.


  • #1343
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 55,044 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    hmmm wrote: »
    Christmas was a huge super-spreading event. People who get infected on Christmas day might not show symptoms for another 2 weeks. Many will be infectious already and not know it and are continuing to meet people, travel on public transport etc.

    I can't see it peaking by the end of this week - end of next week maybe, but that would only happen if the infectious people can be isolated. A 2 or 3 week timeout may be an option.

    On average someone exposed on Christmas Day will start showing symptoms tomorrow and would be included in figures by the end of this week.

    That’s only the average of course, but we shouldn’t think that the surge from Christmas Day is going to be at 14 days.

    There will be people in the system already who were exposed on Christmas Day.


  • #1344
    mike8634
    Closed Accounts Posts: 87 ✭✭mike8634


    How many in the ICU out of our 5,000,000 population today?


  • #1345
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    mike8634 wrote: »
    How many in the ICU out of our 5,000,000 population today?

    40 I think


  • #1346
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,117 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    fits wrote: »
    I’d hope it will peak by the end of the week.

    Anecdotally I know but a lot of people changed plans for Christmas when they saw the way numbers were going.

    Many didn't though.

    I don't want to be annoying anyone but it has to be said, where are those posters who wanted everything opened up, that we didn't need the restrictions? That we just go about Christmas in the normal way?

    Warnings ignored, people not taking it seriously, telling us all to ignore advice.

    And now we have the results of that.

    We could have kept our restrictions tight and foregone Christmas for one year. Wasn't much to ask.


  • #1347
    weldoninhio
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Do elaborate? How do you feel people won't be able to return to normal? I presume there's some insight or evidence behind your statement rather than it just being a groundless little dig at the more wary on here?

    There'll be those who'll freak out if someone coughs or sneezes within 20ft of them


  • #1348
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,047 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Yes I honestly don’t think we missed out on much by not having a family dinner. We met outside a couple of times and it was fine. Had a lovely Xmas day here tbh. Tis all a bit bit Int now though.


  • #1349
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    We could have kept our restrictions tight and foregone Christmas for one year. Wasn't much to ask.
    it wouldn't have worked. People would have hosted each other in their homes instead.

    This was inevitable, the only question is about to what extent the lifting of restrictions exacerbated (or flattened) the growth in cases.


  • #1350
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    awec wrote: »
    On average someone exposed on Christmas Day will start showing symptoms tomorrow and would be included in figures by the end of this week.

    That’s only the average of course, but we shouldn’t think that the surge from Christmas Day is going to be at 14 days.

    There will be people in the system already who were exposed on Christmas Day.

    Good point. And the majority of people are 5/6 days, so we should see the effects of Xmas Eve/Xmas Day specifically very shortly one would think.


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  • #1351
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    How is this any different to people saying “just wait 2 weeks” when hospital numbers take a jump?

    Heard the same in March about the economy, people saying there wouldn’t be enough money to fund a health service after the lockdown went from 3 to 5 weeks, every pub would be out of business, etc. I’m not saying there’s been no impact to the economy, but a lot like the predictions of bodies in the streets, we’re in a grand position considering the circumstances.

    All borrowed money has to be paid back of course the interest rates are a factor, but you still need to make repayments which is money not available to spend on other things. Closing sectors of the economy without evidence to justify same is reactionary bs. I would be more impressed if those making that decision had ‘skin in the game ‘ so to speak.


This discussion has been closed.
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