Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's what I'm asking about, so it seems that the initial hospitalisation rate of 5ish % (of those with a positive test) still seems to stand in this time of relatively adequate testing. Or make it 4ish to be conservative. It's still a big indicator of future hospital services pressure, as the virus seems to be moving through large population centres now.

To be honest it seems much higher right now.

Obviously hospitalisations follow cases by a number of weeks, but in the last two days we've seen very large numbers admitted to hospital. 31 and 39 respectively.
I hope to god that it's down to some weird christmas thing with the hospitals, because a couple of weeks ago we were only getting 300-400 odd cases a day.

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It does seem around double of what could be expected, hopefully in and out quickly as a precaution. Plenty free beds at the moment.

If you were running a hospital during a pandemic would you be loose with who you admit?

majcos wrote: »

HSE operations report 28/12 as of 8pm

Covid cases hospitalised 385 - increase from 297 on 26/12
(No report published on 27/12)

ICU confirmed Covid cases 30 increase from 23 on 26/12
1 death in ICUs last 24 hours
Confirmed Covid cases ventilated 16 - increase from 11 on 26/12
Available ICU beds 55

So are these the very latest figures, and yet to be updated on the geohive site?
https://covid-19.geohive.ie/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

Just reading the Twitter thread on the SA variant that was posted a few pages back. It seems like there some doubt on whether the vaccines will protect against this strain? I hope it does, 2021 needs to be better!

Lollipop95 wrote: »

Just reading the Twitter thread on the SA variant that was posted a few pages back. It seems like there some doubt on whether the vaccines will protect against this strain? I hope it does, 2021 needs to be better!

Most of the experts have said it will likely work on the new strain but it isn't fully confirmed yet. The danger is that they don't know how far away it is from a vaccine escape and the more we allow it to spread the higher chance of those mutations happening. There is a fairly clear answer at the end of this BBC article.

Will the vaccines work against the new variant?

Almost certainly yes, or at least for now.

All three leading vaccines develop an immune response against the existing spike, which is why the question comes up.

Vaccines train the immune system to attack several different parts of the virus, so even though part of the spike has mutated, the vaccines should still work.

"But if we let it add more mutations, then you start worrying," said Prof Gupta.

"This virus is potentially on a pathway for vaccine escape, it has taken the first couple of steps towards that."

Vaccine escape happens when the virus changes so it dodges the full effect of the vaccine and continues to infect people.

This may be the most concerning element of what is happening with the virus.

This variant is just the latest to show the virus is continuing to adapt as it infects more and more of us.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE Operations report

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/coronavirus-daily-operations-updates.html

Miserable reading, but thanks all the same.

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

It is precisely this kind of cautiousness that has helped steer us away from the situations that the UK has experienced. Exponential growth doesn't seem to be something that people understand that well and how quickly things can escalate and how much you are always teetering on the edge.

Still missing the point, on a like for like basis Englands population is eleven times ours,today their covid hospital patients are something like fifty five times ours.My only point is notwithstanding our limited ICU and general hospital capacity we are a long way from being over run.Hopefully exponential growth like that will never materialize.

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Sure. Difficult to separate out those figures. Still, I think that scenario would be very much the minority, I'm not sure?

Difficult indeed, the distinction is rarely made. Admission/Discharge/Hospitilsation etc data is often messy.

Between the 13th Nov to the 13th Dec there were 219 hospital acquired infections. In the same period there were 366 'new admissions' logged. Again, the HSE and CMO frequently interchange terminology here at times. I'm guessing to validate it you'd have to check for a cumulative increase in the daily ops each day in that period (this number is definitely inclusive of new admissions + hospital acquired (or something else??), as the last two days the hospital case increase has been higher than the new admission figures of 31 and 39). You should come out at 585 if the 219 and 366 are unique to one another in terms of data.

I'd debate 37% being a minority. Definitely by definition but a little under 40%...a sizeable proportion nonetheless.

EDIT: Out of my own curiosity (insanity?) I just opened each daily op report, starting with the 13th November to the 13th December.

Using 'Total Confirmed Cases (past 24 hours) for that 13th-13th period:
Using 8am - 8am window - 485
Using 2pm - 2pm window - 393
Using 8pm - 8pm window - 455

Quite a bit of variance there, don't know why 2pm-2pm is so weird, they are all 24 hour periods so you'd imagine they'd overlap eventually and be close enough? Either way, can't seem to get near 585 cases so again the whole hospital acquired vs new admissions is a messy picture. The 219 were reported from acute hospitals so perhaps these were pulled from more than the standard 29 acute hospitals in the daily ops. Honestly, hard to tell.

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Just learning from the input here, I'm not a professional in the area, just aware that we have historically very low occupancy now, maybe because of such a low flu season, but we should heed the warnings from England's hospitals today.

But I'm not a hospital manager, just some guy on the internet!

with that sort of attitude you'll never manage a hospital

I think I could figure out how to get the data and hospitalisation rate, but I'm a bottle and a half in

lukas8888 wrote: »

Your right about one thing, it is acting differently in many parts of the world.

Yeah, but in no parts of the world has it flipped from exhibiting exponential to linear growth.
Mathematically speaking, it's highly unlikely we have a new strain that works on different maths.

But then I'm neither a mathematician nor a hospital manager, so what would I know

TonyMaloney wrote: »

So are these the very latest figures, and yet to be updated on the geohive site?
https://covid-19.geohive.ie/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

360 in hospital on Covid hub refers to figure at 8am this morning.

The operations reports that I posted about gives figures at 8am, 2pm and 8pm.

The figure for hospitalisations in my post is as of 8pm tally this evening and compared with 8pm tally on December 26th.

majcos wrote: »

360 in hospital on Covid hub refers to figure at 8am this morning.

The operations reports that I posted about gives figures at 8am, 2pm and 8pm.

The figure for hospitalisations in my post is as of 8pm tally this evening and compared with 8pm tally on December 26th.

thanks

so we're seeing three days of unsustainable (or at least really difficult) admissions?
Any sense that this might be a christmas thing? Like, could people have been putting it off and trying to get through christmas?

that sounds silly now that I've typed it out

just my rough idea if you read spookwomans chart for the rural main county hospitals down the country ...and look at the daily numbers of positives... and hospital cases... and ICU cases you might get a better idea of the numbers ending up in hospital and ICU and how long for. It is easier to see the time lags and also potential longer stays versus short stays versus sadly the death numbers. Caveat a major city might have an outbreak on a ward of high risk people... but we normally get to hear about them aswell as nursing homes. With a little extra local knowledge you get to hear also of difficult cases and if they are transferred and those who pass away. Take into account density of major towns aswell.

And did nobody go home to leitrim etc for Christmas? Very low postives per the last fourteen day average somebody posted?