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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #872
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Russman wrote: »
    Is that two today or just the scheduled one ?

    Just the one and it was brought forward due to brexit


  • #873
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Stheno wrote: »
    They will probably shut gyms, golf etc as well as non essential retail

    I wonder will they keep inter County travel banned? Can see the household visits ban also remaining

    It will be miserable

    There was a cabinet meeting this evening too

    Intercounty travel lasted 8 days this time from 18th - 26th

    Yes they will keep intercounty travel banned

    The only thing is will they go back to 5km or keep travel within the counties

    I'll bet 5km as NPHET will demand that


  • #874
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,025 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Szero wrote: »
    My girlfriend is a GP. She keeps talking about the soaring number of mental health cases she is seeing. There is a big mental health crisis out there.

    January and February can be bleak months at the best of times. Can only see the mental health crisis getting worse.

    There is one thing the government can do ... keep gyms open. Physical activity can cause chemical changes in the brain. These changes help to improve your mood. Exercise helps reduce stress and boosts your energy levels.

    There is a lot of speculation here about closing non-essential retail. If the government does take that step, I really hope they segregate the gym decision from the non-essential retail decision. i.e. close non-essential retail if they must but leave gyms open.

    These 2 restrictions do not need to go hand in hand.
    Dead right. However, certain groups are being sacrificed in the response to this pandemic. During the initial lockdown lots of people with cancer were sacrificed. Hospitality workers have been sacrificed throughout. People with mental health issues have also been sacrificed and that will continue to the end. This is intentional as broad restrictions are much much easier to apply than carefully thought out planned restrictions.


  • #875
    screamer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,193 ✭✭✭screamer


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Gyms are essential to exercise?

    They are for a certain social media, body conscious cohort. The rest of us just get out and walk in the fresh air and rain!


  • #876
    FlubberJones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭FlubberJones


    screamer wrote: »
    They are for a certain social media, body conscious cohort. The rest of us just get out and walk in the fresh air and rain!

    what an absolute load of bollox


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  • #877
    Avoation1091
    Closed Accounts Posts: 104 ✭✭Avoation1091


    MOR316 wrote: »
    They already decided to close gyms and retail next week, before Christmas.
    The lockdown will last until March 27th.

    Have it on good authority so I'll believe it

    When will this be announced? No offence but i wont be believing anything until its announced? We could all say we have on good authority!


  • #878
    irishguy1983
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,389 ✭✭✭irishguy1983


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    I think the North have moved to releasing information every 48 hours over the christmas.

    This is something I’d like to see....Maybe give us the weekends off or something...No issues with Tony or the government but feel we are in lockdown now and I’d like a break from all the messaging/updates every night...Maybe just do a Monday to a Friday - feels unnecessary...


  • #879
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Intercounty travel lasted 8 days this time from 18th - 26th

    Yes they will keep intercounty travel banned

    The only thing is will they go back to 5km or keep travel within the counties

    I'll bet 5km as NPHET will demand that

    I'm on nearly three weeks holidays at the moment

    I cannot wait to go back to work, it will give some structure to my day

    It must be rotten for people unable to work for weeks on end


  • #880
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Derek Zoolander wrote: »
    Those numbers indicate nearly 1000 admissions over 3 days - that doesn’t tally with the official data released - surely a typo on the spreadsheet

    Yeah, clearly an error there.

    However if you go into the hspc data the 15-24 bracket has seen two record breaking days of admissions back to back.
    However (again) this data does not seem to tally with what we're being served on https://covid-19.geohive.ie/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

    I'd be very interested to get to the bottom of this. Perhaps Spookwoman or someone with hospital chops can help?

    Here's the data source
    https://data.gov.ie/dataset/covidstatisticsprofilehpscirelandopendata1/resource/3a57f14e-9cd2-4d31-b458-a4db7b7a01a9


  • #881
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,977 ✭✭✭Russman


    I dunno, I can’t see them going full on with it yet tbh. Really can’t see them going anywhere near the type of restrictions we had last March. I know the medics may want it (and it may well be justified), but they’re probably dealing with a whole heap of vested interests in their ears, I just can’t see FF particularly, going with closing non essential retail.

    Obviously if hospitals do in fact, fill up, all bets are off.


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  • #882
    Spudman_20000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,215 ✭✭✭Spudman_20000


    screamer wrote: »
    They are for a certain social media, body conscious cohort. The rest of us just get out and walk in the fresh air and rain!

    Yes, because the only form of exercise is cardio. Comments like this are moronic. Do you know how difficult it is to build and maintain muscle. Walks are grand for my elderly mother.


  • #883
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Gyms are essential to exercise?

    No they very much are not

    You can exercise without a gym. People did throughout lockdown 2.0


  • #884
    RandomViewer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    No they very much are not

    You can exercise without a gym. People did throughout lockdown 2.0

    Bodybuilders cant get their fix, they'll be grand


  • #885
    statesaver
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,084 ✭✭✭statesaver


    screamer wrote: »
    They are for a certain social media, body conscious cohort. The rest of us just get out and walk in the fresh air and rain!

    And it's free. Going for a run in the cold of weather is wonderful.


  • #886
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Stheno wrote: »
    I'm on nearly three weeks holidays at the moment

    I cannot wait to go back to work, it will give some structure to my day

    It must be rotten for people unable to work for weeks on end

    Absolutely

    I know one publican very well

    She got 4 weeks open since March and wasn't allowed open at this lockdown

    She's lost a lot of money and had invested in facilities for social distancing etc

    God knows when she'll be allowed to open again or if she will have the money to do so

    Her daughter is based in Dublin with her family so hasn't got home as much this year

    Only so many walks somebody can go on

    Keeping her business shut also got rid of a social outlet for her


  • #887
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Panic over. Apologies. The HSE data is corrupt

    https://twitter.com/LouisWu1992/status/1343644532857057280?s=20


  • #888
    appledrop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,648 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Gyms are essential to exercise?

    No they are not. Now dont get me wrong important for some people for their mental health yes but not essential for exercise.

    I did an unreal work out yesterday.... hoovering the whole house!

    I'm not joking if its done properly its an unreal workout proven on BBC programme before.


  • #889
    fits
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,047 ✭✭✭✭fits


    I can tell you gyms would be quite deleterious to my own mental health anyway. Gimme a walk/run/cycle any day of the week.

    Anyway fact remains they are risky environments. I’ve been jumped in before for saying that but it doesn’t change a thing.


  • #890
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,650 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    appledrop wrote: »
    No they are not. Now dont get me wrong important for some people for their mental health yes but not essential for exercise.

    I did an unreal work out yesterday.... hoovering the whole house!

    I'm not joking if its done properly its an unreal workout proven on BBC programme before.

    Would hoovering really cut it for someone used to intense cardio workouts though lol


  • #891
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Michael was just in the radio saying the impact of closing non essential retail was low


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  • #892
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Spudman_20000 wrote: »
    Yes, because the only form of exercise is cardio. Comments like this are moronic. Do you know how difficult it is to build and maintain muscle. Walks are grand for my elderly mother.

    And the gym will reopen when This passes. You can do a lot of exercise without them!

    closing them makes sense. They are the perfect environment for the virus.


  • #893
    mike8634
    Closed Accounts Posts: 87 ✭✭mike8634


    appledrop wrote: »
    No they are not. Now dont get me wrong important for some people for their mental health yes but not essential for exercise.

    I did an unreal work out yesterday.... hoovering the whole house!

    I'm not joking if its done properly its an unreal workout proven on BBC programme before.

    If you got an unreal workout hoovering the house, then you ain't fit


  • #894
    cnnc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7 ✭cnnc


    I think there is some confusion about the 12.63% positive rate. The swabs data are based on *both* serial tests (i.e., regular testing of medical professionals and factory workers) and general community testing (i.e., people calling their GP and getting a test). There are usually about 45,000 serial tests done each week, with a positive rate of about 0.6% as of mid-December. The number of community tests varies considerably over time, recently rising to over 45,000 a week. Importantly, the positive rate on community tests is much higher at something like 7-8 per cent in mid-December.

    See the data on serial vs. community testing at the link below and notice also that the 7-day swab processing total was roughly 90,000 in mid-December, roughly matching the swab data.
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-and-tracing-update-23-december-2020.pdf

    If factory workers or some medical professionals have gone on their Christmas holidays and are not being tested, then the number of swabs taken will go down and the positive rate for swabs will go up.

    537419.JPG

    There are likely a lot of other factors at play too that pushed up swab processing right before Christmas Day and pushed it way down afterwards. Swab processors may have gone into overdrive to catch as many cases before Christmas Day as possible. Individuals may have come forward to get (potentially misplaced) peace of mind right before meeting family. Community testing may be down since the 25th as people ignore symptoms and/or fail to engage fulling with contact tracers. Alternatively, there may be issues in swab processing and/or contact tracing.

    The bottom line is that tracking the overall positive rate through the swabs data is very problematic. At a minimum, you should look for the positive rate of serial tests and community tests separately.


  • #895
    JTMan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,576 ✭✭✭JTMan


    Stheno wrote: »
    Michael was just in the radio saying the impact of closing non essential retail was low

    He's right. Risk and benefits need to be weighted up with making these decisions.

    Letting 200,000 people in retail loose their job and the mental health consequences (and other effects) is not worth it given the small effect it would have on cases.

    Proud that the government have made the right balanced decision on non-essential retail and gyms.


  • #896
    SpacialNeeds
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 203 ✭✭SpacialNeeds


    Stheno wrote: »
    Michael was just in the radio saying the impact of closing non essential retail was low
    Not if there are high levels of community transmission and a tracing system that's becoming overwhelmed, surely even a complete idiot like him knows that.


  • #897
    jackboy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,025 ✭✭✭jackboy


    JTMan wrote: »
    He's right. Risk and benefits need to be weighted up with making these decisions.

    Letting 200,000 people in retail loose their job and the mental health consequences (and other effects) is not worth it given the small effect it would have on cases.

    Proud that the government have made the right balanced decision on non-essential retail and gyms.

    Don’t be proud so fast. They are well able for u turns.


  • #898
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,648 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    It's important to consider where the sources of spread will be now after the rollback of easing of restrictions on the 24th. There will continue to be case growth in the next few weeks, but the majority of this will be down to people developing the disease now infecting the rest of their households. Closing retail/gyms/imposing 5km limits will not stop this. There was a similar effect in April and in October - the lag observed between restrictions and case growth slowdown/reversal. Some people have "mandatory contacts" - such as housemates/family that they will infect by virtue of living with them. But further restrictions will not stop these infections.

    Keeping gyms open on the basis of "mental health" while imposing a 5km restriction on exercise would be pathetic. Not everyone likes to exercise indoors in crowded areas with poor ventilation in the middle of winter - and completely ignores those that like to climb mountains/go to the coast which is much less conducive to viral spread than gyms. Some gyms make great efforts to stop the spread of the virus - but some are completely uncontrolled also.


  • #899
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    JTMan wrote: »
    He's right. Risk and benefits need to be weighted up with making these decisions.

    Letting 200,000 people in retail loose their job and the mental health consequences (and other effects) is not worth it given the small effect it would have on cases.

    Proud that the government have made the right balanced decision on non-essential retail and gyms.

    We will wait and see if that's the case

    Tony and NPHET will keep recommending they close non essential retail until the government give in


  • #900
    no.8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 817 ✭✭✭no.8


    fits wrote:
    I can tell you gyms would be quite deleterious to my own mental health anyway. Gimme a walk/run/cycle any day of the week.


    Thats great and likely hugely beneficial... but not much use if you're a swimmer. It's not a witch hunt, restrictions should be based on hard data not speculation or grievances


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  • #901
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    cnnc wrote: »
    I think there is some confusion about the 12.63% positive rate. The swabs data are based on *both* serial tests (i.e., regular testing of medical professionals and factory workers) and general community testing (i.e., people calling their GP and getting a test). There are usually about 45,000 serial tests done each week, with a positive rate of about 0.6% as of mid-December. The number of community tests varies considerably over time, recently rising to over 45,000 a week. Importantly, the positive rate on community tests is much higher at something like 7-8 per cent in mid-December.

    See the data on serial vs. community testing at the link below and notice also that the 7-day swab processing total was roughly 90,000 in mid-December, roughly matching the swab data.
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-and-tracing-update-23-december-2020.pdf

    If factory workers or some medical professionals have gone on their Christmas holidays and are not being tested, then the number of swabs taken will go down and the positive rate for swabs will go up.

    537419.JPG

    There are likely a lot of other factors at play too that pushed up swab processing right before Christmas Day and pushed it way down afterwards. Swab processors may have gone into overdrive to catch as many cases before Christmas Day as possible. Individuals may have come forward to get (potentially misplaced) peace of mind right before meeting family. Community testing may be down since the 25th as people ignore symptoms and/or fail to engage fulling with contact tracers. Alternatively, there may be issues in swab processing and/or contact tracing.

    The bottom line is that tracking the overall positive rate through the swabs data is very problematic. At a minimum, you should look for the positive rate of serial tests and community tests separately.

    Really interesting points, thanks.

    I think some of that data might be available to us. I'll have a rummage.


This discussion has been closed.
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