Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

bb1234567 · 14-12-2020 02:43PM

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181128115045.htm
Study found that only 12% of the adult American population was considered to be in 'optimal' cardiometabolic health. Might be why USA is seeing so many deaths.But I wonder would Ireland and UK be dramatically different?

harr · 14-12-2020 02:44PM

brisan wrote: »

Whenever Tony and the Government return to work after the Christmas break
EDIT
It will take a few days after that for the facts and case numbers to tabulated and the concernometer to be ramped up

They Probably will stick to the 6th of January and straight back into a level 5

ACitizenErased · 14-12-2020 02:47PM

harr wrote: »

They Probably will stick to the 6th of January and straight back into a level 5

Why don't we wait and see what happens before making 'probably' predictions?

brisan · 14-12-2020 02:51PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Why don't we wait and see what happens before making 'probably' predictions?

A question was asked about what will happen in the future
Since no definitive answer can be given probably is the best answer that can be given
To me that is better than posters giving their opinions and claiming them as fact

harr · 14-12-2020 02:52PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Why don't we wait and see what happens before making 'probably' predictions?

It’s only a prediction.. it could go anyway before then, nobody knows what way numbers will be come January.

ACitizenErased · 14-12-2020 02:53PM

brisan wrote: »

A question was asked about what will happen in the future
Since no definitive answer can be given probably is the best answer that can be given
To me that is better than posters giving their opinions and claiming them as fact

I prefer the use of 'I think' versus a definitive 'probably' to be honest but that's just me

polesheep · 14-12-2020 02:56PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181128115045.htm
Study found that only 12% of the adult American population was considered to be in 'optimal' cardiometabolic health. Might be why USA is seeing so many deaths.But I wonder would Ireland and UK be dramatically different?

It's the elephant in the room over there. (No pun intended). We're on the way there but I think we have a bit to go yet. I'd love to see it reversed.

lukas8888 · 14-12-2020 03:01PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I prefer the use of 'I think' versus a definitive 'probably' to be honest but that's just me

Or how about a possible rather than a probable.

TonyMaloney · 14-12-2020 03:22PM

I'm certain we're going to see a dramatic rise in cases leading us to another lockdown.
Our current Christmas strategy is nuts. We're throwing away all that was so hard earned back in November.

You can see it in the google mobility report for Ireland
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-12-07_IE_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

Retail & hospitality are almost back to normal levels (-10%).
Public transport is increasingly being used again, down only 41% from normal levels.
People are increasingly returning to their workplace, despite the work from home request.

This current level 3 experience is nothing like the experience we had with it the first time around, and that's the problem with the "we know level 3 works" mantra that's being doing the rounds. It doesn't necessarily work at all. It requires strict adherence to the restrictions. Apart from closing some pubs, very little is actually enforced by the state right now.

Another wave and a subsequent lockdown are nailed on

ACitizenErased · 14-12-2020 03:36PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm certain we're going to see a dramatic rise in cases leading us to another lockdown.
Our current Christmas strategy is nuts. We're throwing away all that was so hard earned back in November.

You can see it in the google mobility report for Ireland
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-12-07_IE_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

Retail & hospitality are almost back to normal levels (-10%).
Public transport is increasingly being used again, down only 41% from normal levels.
People are increasingly returning to their workplace, despite the work from home request.

This current level 3 experience is nothing like the experience we had with it the first time around, and that's the problem with the "we know level 3 works" mantra that's being doing the rounds. It doesn't necessarily work at all. It requires strict adherence to the restrictions. Apart from closing some pubs, very little is actually enforced by the state right now.

Another wave and a subsequent lockdown are nailed on

* in your opinion

Derek Zoolander · 14-12-2020 03:40PM

seamus wrote: »

They seem to have gotten a handle on their cases around the same time that we did, went into a flatline again like we did, but about two weeks ago saw another surge.

Since we know this infection tends to follow roughly the same patterns within regions, that would explain why we've been having trouble getting our numbers any lower.

But it equally begs the question of why Netherlands saw their numbers rise when we didn't.

Having a brief look at their measures, it seems like the big difference is (as one would expect), social contacts, especially at home. Dutch people have been permitted to have 3 visitors in their home daily (with no limit on child visitors) since 17th November, and indoor groups of up to 30 (events and stuff).

So while our restrictions on informal socialising seem draconian, they also seem to be working.

Aside from that, can we take a moment to appreciate the clarity and simplicity of the Dutch Covid Dashboard: https://coronadashboard.government.nl/

They stopped growth and the curve may have looked reasonably similar both absolute values are important too - they never got below 4000 new cases per day. With that level being the bottom in terms of new cases you can argue that any loosening would just cause significant growth again - their positivity rate I believe was never below 5% either.... so I'm not sure you can compare us to them in any way

brisan · 14-12-2020 03:40PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm certain we're going to see a dramatic rise in cases leading us to another lockdown.
Our current Christmas strategy is nuts. We're throwing away all that was so hard earned back in November.

You can see it in the google mobility report for Ireland
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-12-07_IE_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

Retail & hospitality are almost back to normal levels (-10%).
Public transport is increasingly being used again, down only 41% from normal levels.
People are increasingly returning to their workplace, despite the work from home request.

This current level 3 experience is nothing like the experience we had with it the first time around, and that's the problem with the "we know level 3 works" mantra that's being doing the rounds. It doesn't necessarily work at all. It requires strict adherence to the restrictions. Apart from closing some pubs, very little is actually enforced by the state right now.

Another wave and a subsequent lockdown are nailed on

Do you honestly think people were going to abide by restrictions over the Christmas
Retail would have been decimated if not allowed open for Christmas
Hospitality would have been decimated as well
A lot of these businesses would have closed for good without a December opening and some will still fail
In St Stephens green shopping centre yesterday and a few empty units ,as there is everywhere
We will be figuring the economic impact of this pandemic long after the medical battle has been won
The Government knew all this
So did Holohan but he chose to ignore it

hmmm · 14-12-2020 03:45PM

seamus wrote: »

Dutch people have been permitted to have 3 visitors in their home daily (with no limit on child visitors) since 17th November, and indoor groups of up to 30 (events and stuff).

Maybe I'm reading their guidelines wrong, but they seem to allow 30 to meet indoors and 4 to meet outdoors. Which sounds daft (as I say, maybe I am reading it wrong).

Has there been even a single super-spread event anywhere in the world tied back to an outdoor meeting, even mass demonstrations? Whereas indoors we have lots of examples.

It's obvious at this stage that the thing spreads effectively in indoor, poorly ventilated spaces - no matter how far apart you are. We know that some people are going to meet family at Christmas no matter how many appeals there are, the least our government could do is tell them to meet outside if possible - or we'll have lots of spread in the new year.

Eod100 · 14-12-2020 03:57PM

Netherlands follows Germany in having restrictions from now until January. Talk of London having more restrictions too. Hopefully cases remain stable here over next few weeks.

I think government are committed until not having restrictions until January at the earliest (unless things change drastically) so hopefully things remain static or decrease ideally.

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1338492704561516544

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55301192

yourdeadwright · 14-12-2020 04:02PM

brisan wrote: »

Do you honestly think people were going to abide by restrictions over the Christmas
Retail would have been decimated if not allowed open for Christmas
Hospitality would have been decimated as well
A lot of these businesses would have closed for good without a December opening and some will still fail
In St Stephens green shopping centre yesterday and a few empty units ,as there is everywhere
We will be figuring the economic impact of this pandemic long after the medical battle has been won
The Government knew all this
So did Holohan but he chose to ignore it

It's Tony's job to ignore it ,
People don't seem to understand his job is about what is best for health of the nation , its the government's job to take that advice and then plan it around the economy .

The government have given Tony and co more leash and more air time than they ever should have had but its on purpose so the people hold any resentment against them and not Leo and lads, Who in the end of the day have the final call ,

igCorcaigh · 14-12-2020 04:04PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Talk of London having more restrictions too.

Tier 3 restrictions for London from tomorrow night. Just announced.

political analyst · 14-12-2020 04:05PM

How do the manufacturers of the disposable masks worn by the public ensure that the materials that they use to make the masks don't run out? Surely, the materials are not infinite resources.

stargazer 68 · 14-12-2020 04:07PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Netherlands follows Germany in having restrictions from now until January. Talk of London having more restrictions too. Hopefully cases remain stable here over next few weeks.

I think government are committed until not having restrictions until January at the earliest (unless things change drastically) so hopefully things remain static or decrease ideally.

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1338492704561516544

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55301192

Looks like Cyprus too. Cant find any links but I have friends there who have said they are in lockdown from tomorrow

14-12-2020 04:12PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I'm certain we're going to see a dramatic rise in cases leading us to another lockdown.
Our current Christmas strategy is nuts. We're throwing away all that was so hard earned back in November.

You can see it in the google mobility report for Ireland
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-12-07_IE_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf

Retail & hospitality are almost back to normal levels (-10%).
Public transport is increasingly being used again, down only 41% from normal levels.
People are increasingly returning to their workplace, despite the work from home request.

This current level 3 experience is nothing like the experience we had with it the first time around, and that's the problem with the "we know level 3 works" mantra that's being doing the rounds. It doesn't necessarily work at all. It requires strict adherence to the restrictions. Apart from closing some pubs, very little is actually enforced by the state right now.

Another wave and a subsequent lockdown are nailed on

Sounds like you want to stay in lockdown... to avoid further lockdown...

Seamai · 14-12-2020 04:19PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Netherlands follows Germany in having restrictions from now until January. Talk of London having more restrictions too. Hopefully cases remain stable here over next few weeks.

I think government are committed until not having restrictions until January at the earliest (unless things change drastically) so hopefully things remain static or decrease ideally.

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1338492704561516544

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55301192

Sounds pretty draconian, to all those chanting that we here had the strictest and longest lockdowns, no we didn't, this is what it looks like and I've no doubt more countries will follow. Let's just hope that the timing of our level 5 has bought us enough wriggle room to have some semblance of normality over Christmas.

rovers_runner · 14-12-2020 04:21PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Netherlands follows Germany in having restrictions from now until January. Talk of London having more restrictions too. Hopefully cases remain stable here over next few weeks.

I think government are committed until not having restrictions until January at the earliest (unless things change drastically) so hopefully things remain static or decrease ideally.

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1338492704561516544

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55301192

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1338492704561516544

I'd say that sex worker is delighted to get a break though, they must be wrecked.....

Stheno · 14-12-2020 04:21PM

Seamai wrote: »

Sounds pretty draconian, to all those chanting that we here had the strictest and longest lockdowns, no we didn't, this is what it looks like and I've no doubt more countries will follow. Let's just hope that the timing of our level 5 has bought us enough wriggle room to have some semblance of normality over Christmas.

London tier three is less severe than our level 5
Germany are going to level five and shutting schools

fly_agaric · 14-12-2020 04:24PM

political analyst wrote: »

How do the manufacturers of the disposable masks worn by the public ensure that the materials that they use to make the masks don't run out? Surely, the materials are not infinite resources.

Plastics. As long as there is enough oil (and coal) the material will not run out (and even then perhaps renewable plant based plastics could be used).

(I think) what is needed for making polymers is the "heavy" fraction of oil - more common and less valuable than the light fractions used for making good fuels.

So the limits are those of world's refining industry and chemical/plastics plants.

edit: I suppose there's alot less plastic required for manufacture of a disposable mask than you'd find in a single piece of "fast" fashion.
Wonder how it balances out?...there must be a large reduction in empty, wasteful purchases of clothes etc. in rich countries with bricks + mortar shops being closed or restricted in operation for so much of the year in many cities.

Seamai · 14-12-2020 04:39PM

Stheno wrote: »

London tier three is less severe than our level 5
Germany are going to level five and shutting schools

I'm afraid you missed my point. I didn't mention London. I was referring to the measures over the Christmas period in the Netherlands, Germany and also Italy. Our restrictions were never strictly enforced and with 11 days to Christmas we might find ourselves in the enviable position of having a bit more freedom over the holidays than many of our European neighbours.

iamwhoiam · 14-12-2020 04:40PM

Seamai wrote: »

I'm afraid you missed my point. I didn't mention London. I was referring to the measures over the Christmas period in the Netherlands, Germany and also Italy. Our restrictions were never strictly enforced and with 11 days to Christmas we might find ourselves in the enviable position of having a bit more freedom over the holidays than many of our European neighbours.

Germany are allowed visitors to your home on 25th snd 26th .

blowitupref · 14-12-2020 04:44PM

Seamai wrote: »

I'm afraid you missed my point. I didn't mention London. I was referring to the measures over the Christmas period in the Netherlands, Germany and also Italy. Our restrictions were never strictly enforced and with 11 days to Christmas we might find ourselves in the enviable position of having a bit more freedom over the holidays than many of our European neighbours.

14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100 000

Italy 428.3
Netherlands 546.7
Germany 341.1

We are currently 80.4

igCorcaigh · 14-12-2020 04:44PM

Seamai wrote: »

I'm afraid you missed my point. I didn't mention London. I was referring to the measures over the Christmas period in the Netherlands, Germany and also Italy. Our restrictions were never strictly enforced and with 11 days to Christmas we might find ourselves in the enviable position of having a bit more freedom over the holidays than many of our European neighbours.

I'm inclined to think that we relaxed our restrictions too early, allowing enough time for cases to build in the community before people travel home to see their families for Christmas (bear in mind the time lag between new infections and test results).

Always the pessimist!

Seamai · 14-12-2020 04:45PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Germany are allowed visitors to your home on 25th snd 26th .

We're not going to have shops and restaurants closed starting 10 days before Christmas, pretty drastic in my books. Can you imagine the reaction if that were to happen here?

igCorcaigh · 14-12-2020 04:47PM

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1338510322311835650?s=19

caveat emptor · 14-12-2020 04:49PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1338510322311835650?s=19

Yeah just saw that. Doesn't sound good.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1338511057204244481?s=20

He added: "We have identified a new variant of coronavirus which may be associated with the faster spread in South East England.

"It is growing faster than existing variants, with over 1,000 cases."

There are over 60 areas affected, and similar strains have been identified in other countries, he said.

The World Health Organsiation and Public Health England are continuing to look into the new killer strain.

It comes hours after Boris Johnson led a "Covid O" meeting to agree the measures, which will close pubs and restaurants.

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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