Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

Renjit · 07-12-2020 04:15PM

snowstorm445 wrote: »

FFS

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/hundreds-ill-dead-due-unidentified-disease-india-74579553

Looks like contamination by chemical or heavy metals.

MerlinSouthDub · 07-12-2020 04:19PM

seamus wrote: »

2-2.5% might be about as low as we can go without a complete lockdown and with the North in such a mess. It's manageable, but it means that any hope of level 1 or 2 in January or Febraury next year can be put to sleep.

It seems most likely we'll go to level 3 (with restaurants closed) in Jan/Feb for a number of weeks. Then hopefully, we re-open again, vaccine roll-out is well underway and we never go backwards again. Based on the knowledge we now have over the past 3 months, it would seem mad and pointless to go to Level 5 ever again - it simply had very little impact versus level 3.

07-12-2020 04:22PM

seamus wrote: »

Influenza is less virulent than Covid and less likely to result in severe symptoms.

Actual cases of 'flu reported to the HSE are only done after a lab result, and I imagine basically nobody is getting tested for 'flu.

In other words, someone goes to the GP feeling crap, GP sends for a covid test, negative result, "go home and stay in bed and drink plenty of fluids". So nothing is reported to the HSE.

Older people restricting their movements will have a massive impact on the number of serious 'flu cases presenting themselves.

I can well believe that none have been reported, but that doesn't mean nobody has it.

Generally people only got tested for flu if sent to hospital. GP's do report rates of Influenza like illnesses which includes all. Would be interesting to see that trend

seamus · 07-12-2020 04:53PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Generally people only got tested for flu if sent to hospital. GP's do report rates of Influenza like illnesses which includes all. Would be interesting to see that trend

I wonder are they still reporting ILIs now though or have they suspended that?

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It seems most likely we'll go to level 3 (with restaurants closed) in Jan/Feb for a number of weeks. Then hopefully, we re-open again, vaccine roll-out is well underway and we never go backwards again. Based on the knowledge we now have over the past 3 months, it would seem mad and pointless to go to Level 5 ever again - it simply had very little impact versus level 3.

This my gut feeling based on nothing. We'll be in level 3 for at least all of January. We might see a form of level 3-lite into February and March which will allow outdoor dining (brr!) and group classes/training indoors. By the end of April we'll be knocking on the door of level 1, with a full end to all restrictions by mid-to-late Summer.

07-12-2020 04:56PM

seamus wrote: »

This my gut feeling based on nothing. We'll be in level 3 for at least all of January. We might see a form of level 3-lite into February and March which will allow outdoor dining (brr!) and group classes/training indoors. By the end of April we'll be knocking on the door of level 1, with a full end to all restrictions by mid-to-late Summer.

That’s what I think will happen. Given that the jury is very much still out on whether level 5 achieved anything over and above level 3 (but with much bigger economic impacts) I don’t think that there will be the appetite from government to go back there

Golfman64 · 07-12-2020 04:56PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It seems most likely we'll go to level 3 (with restaurants closed) in Jan/Feb for a number of weeks. Then hopefully, we re-open again, vaccine roll-out is well underway and we never go backwards again. Based on the knowledge we now have over the past 3 months, it would seem mad and pointless to go to Level 5 ever again - it simply had very little impact versus level 3.

Fully agree but we know that between the media and the NPHET, a more dramatic and economically destructive lockdown will be sought!

It has already started - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/major-increase-in-socialising-could-see-covid-cases-surge-nphet-warns-donnelly-1.4429787

NunianVonFuch · 07-12-2020 05:00PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It seems most likely we'll go to level 3 (with restaurants closed) in Jan/Feb for a number of weeks. Then hopefully, we re-open again, vaccine roll-out is well underway and we never go backwards again. Based on the knowledge we now have over the past 3 months, it would seem mad and pointless to go to Level 5 ever again - it simply had very little impact versus level 3.

Dublin was in level 3 for almost 5 weeks, about 3 on our own and 2 with the rest of the country. We never got our growth rate below 1 until just over a week into level 5.

So maybe Dublin Level 5 in Jan/Feb, whatever about the rest of the nation, they weren't in level 3 long enough to really tell. Knowledge and learnings keep being rolled out constantly in speeches and as justifications for opening up, in reality nothing new has really come out and been implemented about the virus since Ireland accepted masks could help reduce spread. Ventilation can help as well, but there's nothing enforcing anything from the Gov so it's an ignored learning for now.

07-12-2020 05:00PM

Golfman64 wrote: »

Fully agree but we know that between the media and the NPHET, a more dramatic and economically destructive lockdown will be sought!

It has already started - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/major-increase-in-socialising-could-see-covid-cases-surge-nphet-warns-donnelly-1.4429787

But at the same time they provide no evidence of the efficacy of level 5 against level 3 in keeping a lid on this. They’re just fixated on locking down. They have no nuance in their thinking whatsoever

igCorcaigh · 07-12-2020 05:07PM

Has there been any realistic projection of the timeframe for vaccination rollout?
As in, what cohorts of the population will be vaccinated at each time period in 2021?

Stheno · 07-12-2020 05:13PM

Golfman64 wrote: »

Fully agree but we know that between the media and the NPHET, a more dramatic and economically destructive lockdown will be sought!

It has already started - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/major-increase-in-socialising-could-see-covid-cases-surge-nphet-warns-donnelly-1.4429787

Rte say NPHET projecting both 600 cases and 1200 cases a day by the second week of January in the same article

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1207/1182835-covid19-coronavirus/

Stheno · 07-12-2020 05:14PM

NunianVonFuch wrote: »

Dublin was in level 3 for almost 5 weeks, about 3 on our own and 2 with the rest of the country. We never got our growth rate below 1 until just over a week into level 5.

So maybe Dublin Level 5 in Jan/Feb, whatever about the rest of the nation, they weren't in level 3 long enough to really tell. Knowledge and learnings keep being rolled out constantly in speeches and as justifications for opening up, in reality nothing new has really come out and been implemented about the virus since Ireland accepted masks could help reduce spread. Ventilation can help as well, but there's nothing enforcing anything from the Gov so it's an ignored learning for now.

Two weeks of national level 3 drove that decrease imo. Nothing to do with level 5

Stheno · 07-12-2020 05:15PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Has there been any realistic projection of the timeframe for vaccination rollout?
As in, what cohorts of the population will be vaccinated at each time period in 2021?

Nothing yet

Plan supposedly published by MM on Friday

seamus · 07-12-2020 05:16PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Has there been any realistic projection of the timeframe for vaccination rollout?
As in, what cohorts of the population will be vaccinated at each time period in 2021?

I dont think they've been that nuanced, merely projecting 80% or so coverage by September. Normality should come well before that though; once the majority of over-50s and HCWs are covered.

igCorcaigh · 07-12-2020 05:24PM

Thanks for the replies.

Another question (I have googled, but looking for Irish policy):
Can pregnant people get the vaccine?

Stheno · 07-12-2020 05:28PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Thanks for the replies.

Another question (I have googled, but looking for Irish policy):
Can pregnant people get the vaccine?

Not advised according to the indo until further testing is done

Neither pregnant nor planning to get pregnant within three months

Pregnant women

The National Immunisation Advisory Committee in the Republic will be the group who will decide who should and should not get the Covid-19 vaccine initially.

However, it is likely their guidelines will strongly mirror those of experts in the UK where the vaccine is being rolled out this week.

They have recommended that expectant mothers should not be offered it for now.

Although these are in a younger age group and would not be eligible for the vaccine until well into next year the advice is relevant to pregnant healthcare workers who will be among the first in line for the vaccine.

The UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation said so far there is a lack of evidence on the effect of the vaccine but said that more research will be carried out.

Women who are planning to get pregnant within three months will also be excluded.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/explainer-who-should-not-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-and-what-if-you-have-already-had-the-virus-39835097.html

Deenie78 · 07-12-2020 05:31PM

I have to say I was one of those people that trusted and believed in all of NPHET's advice in the first 2/3 of this pandemic their negativity and doom-mongering is really wearing me down. I was sure that they would be somewhat upbeat when the the good news started to come out around vaccines (I was practically giddy) but the gloom continued. I get that they have be be measured in what they say, but surely a balance can be sought to keep peoples hopes and spirits up - to let people know that it's all to play for if we keep on track, have a nice Christmas with some of the things you would normally do, but maybe not all of them, etc. etc.

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 05:33PM

Stheno wrote: »

Rte say NPHET projecting both 600 cases and 1200 cases a day by the second week of January in the same article

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1207/1182835-covid19-coronavirus/

NPHET and future numbers are a bit like our own fruitless stabs in the dark with daily swabs. This is the advance warning not to stray too far off the reservation or else. That's what they do these days.

Stheno · 07-12-2020 05:37PM

is_that_so wrote: »

NPHET and future numbers are a bit like our own fruitless stabs in the dark with daily swabs. This is the advance warning not to stray too far off the reservation or else. That's what they do these days.

True

I'm in the camp where ill eat out with my partner, and meet his son also once a week but won't be visiting anyone in their homes

I think they need to be much clearer to people that you can't do everything that is allowed though

is_that_so · 07-12-2020 05:39PM

Deenie78 wrote: »

I have to say I was one of those people that trusted and believed in all of NPHET's advice in the first 2/3 of this pandemic their negativity and doom-mongering is really wearing me down. I was sure that they would be somewhat upbeat when the the good news started to come out around vaccines (I was practically giddy) but the gloom continued. I get that they have be be measured in what they say, but surely a balance can be sought to keep peoples hopes and spirits up - to let people know that it's all to play for if we keep on track, have a nice Christmas with some of the things you would normally do, but maybe not all of them, etc. etc.

I just get the numbers from them now, not the lectures. The schoolmaster finger wagging is for those who might want to cut loose at Christmas and the damage they could do. As you say a bit of common sense about it and enjoy the season with the family while looking forward to 2021 with restrictions and vaccines!

Be right back · 07-12-2020 05:53PM

242 cases. No deaths reported.

KrustyUCC · 07-12-2020 05:54PM

242 cases
0 deaths

JP Liz V1 · 07-12-2020 05:54PM

Be right back wrote: »

242 cases. No deaths reported.

63% under 45

KrustyUCC · 07-12-2020 05:55PM

https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1336005874184314882

Stheno · 07-12-2020 05:55PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

242 cases
0 deaths

Monday tends to on the low side, right?

igCorcaigh · 07-12-2020 05:55PM

Stheno wrote: »

Not advised according to the indo until further testing is done

Neither pregnant nor planning to get pregnant within three months

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/explainer-who-should-not-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-and-what-if-you-have-already-had-the-virus-39835097.html

Oh wow, that is interesting.
So we do need herd immunity from the vaccine, around 70% uptake I think.

KrustyUCC · 07-12-2020 05:56PM

Stheno wrote: »

Monday tends to on the low side, right?

Yes usually

Wednesday then tends to be high

KrustyUCC · 07-12-2020 05:57PM

76 of today's cases are in Dublin, 27 in Donegal, 22 in Kilkenny, 16 in Galway, 14 in Louth, and the remaining 87 cases are spread across 18 other counties.

Gael23 · 07-12-2020 06:00PM

Don’t read to much into the pregnancy thing. This earning is given with all new drugs, they simply don’t have data to price it is or isn’t safe so advise against pregnancy given the doubt

igCorcaigh · 07-12-2020 06:03PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Don’t read to much into the pregnancy thing. This earning is given with all new drugs, they simply don’t have data to price it is or isn’t safe so advise against pregnancy given the doubt

Sure. But it does mean that we need sufficient immunity in the population via vaccination before we can return to normal.

CruelSummer · 07-12-2020 06:08PM

Dr Holohan is still ‘concerned’ while his worry metric is showing the population is ‘less concerned’. Oh dear, round & round we go on the merry go round. These press conferences should be disbanded and redone with Government and others present.

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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