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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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  • Options
    #2252
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    PommieBast wrote: »
    From memory even Threshold has admitted that the number one cause of homelessness is landlords selling up. Pretty ironic given that they actively encourage the sort of tenant militancy that is driving LL's to stampede for the exit.


    Or as in my case. Frighten me away from buying an investment property.
    Myself and my brother were all gung ho to buy investment property and then we researched it and the legislation is a killer. As is how often it changes.
    We decided not to buy investment property in Ireland. We have had one in Spain for many years and it works out very well. So instead of one in Ireland we are currently looking at another in Spain. Ireland is just the enemy of the residential property investor.


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    #2253
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    I would say not if you have deep pockets. Problems seem to rare (not that we accurate stats on it) and if you can weather a year or two of a property not earning, and repairs that could be massive, but usually aren't. It still has a decent return, if you don't pay too much and the rent is worthwhile.


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    #2254
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    beauf wrote: »
    I would say not if you have deep pockets. Problems seem to rare (not that we accurate stats on it) and if you can weather a year or two of a property not earning, and repairs that could be massive, but usually aren't. It still has a decent return, if you don't pay too much and the rent is worthwhile.


    Big problem is what legislation they feel like enacting at any given time.
    There is no stability whatsoever. The only thing you can depend on is that they are going to keep picking on the residential investor and things will get worse for them, not better. You dont play a game where they keep changing the rules against you.


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    #2255
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    There again you have a landlord /agency renting out an apartment with no electricity and telling the tenant they have to pay the reconnection fee
    Landlords like that should get a heavy no questions asked fine

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=115415045#post115415045


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    #2256
    jr1942
    Closed Accounts Posts: 45 ✭jr1942


    brisan wrote: »
    There again you have a landlord /agency renting out an apartment with no electricity and telling the tenant they have to pay the reconnection fee
    Landlords like that should get a heavy no questions asked fine

    Or one great landlord such as this one?
    ... vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058134742

    Or ie mine who tried to increase rent for 20% few months ago with 10 days notice, after already paying top end price.
    And no, I am not talking about an odd 'scumbag' type of person but a landlord with very high education and top tier job well familiar with regulations - actually to make things funnier guy works in a related audit role for things like this, hasn't stopped him of trying to do so.

    Shall we continue?
    90% of landlords are absolute parasites of society no doubt about it.
    Being a "good" landlord, not working/contributing to society, but picking up rent obviously falls into this criteria as well.


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    #2257
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    jr1942 wrote: »
    Or one great landlord such as this one?
    ... vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058134742

    Or ie mine who tried to increase rent for 20% few months ago with 10 days notice, after already paying top end price.
    And no, I am not talking about an odd 'scumbag' type of person but a landlord with very high education and top tier job well familiar with regulations - actually to make things funnier guy works in a related audit role for things like this, hasn't stopped him of trying to do so.

    Shall we continue?
    90% of landlords are absolute parasites of society no doubt about it.
    Being a "good" landlord, not working/contributing to society, but picking up rent obviously falls into this criteria as well.


    No need to worry, there wont too many left going forward anyway.
    Reits will concentrate on apartments in cities, so im guessing renting apartments will still be easy enough, maybe expensive though. I see a day though when there is a severe shortage of houses to rent for families.


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    #2258
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Though I know this article is not about accommodation, it probably will have an indirect effect on it. Microsoft are the first tech company that I have read (there may be others) who have stated that employees currently wfh will be returning to their offices when Government rules are lifted, along with 200 new employees.

    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.rte.ie/amp/1179829/

    Weird they have stated the opposite only a few weeks back.

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote-work-from-home-covid-19-coronavirus


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    #2259
    timetogo1
    Registered Users Posts: 847 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    Weird they have stated the opposite only a few weeks back.

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote-work-from-home-covid-19-coronavirus

    That's not saying the opposite. The article you quoted says employees will be able to work from home for less than 50% of their week.

    My company is similar. We expect the office space to be reduced and we will be working from home much more but we don't have the option of working 100% at home when life goes back to normal.


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    #2260
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    timetogo1 wrote: »
    That's not saying the opposite. The article you quoted says employees will be able to work from home for less than 50% of their week.

    My company is similar. We expect the office space to be reduced and we will be working from home much more but we don't have the option of working 100% at home when life goes back to normal.

    No part of the option is fully remote with approval.
    Microsoft will now allow employees to work from home freely for less than 50 percent of their working week, or for managers to approve permanent remote work.


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    #2261
    rightmove
    Registered Users Posts: 992 ✭✭✭rightmove


    jr1942 wrote: »
    Or one great landlord such as this one?
    ... vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058134742

    Or ie mine who tried to increase rent for 20% few months ago with 10 days notice, after already paying top end price.
    And no, I am not talking about an odd 'scumbag' type of person but a landlord with very high education and top tier job well familiar with regulations - actually to make things funnier guy works in a related audit role for things like this, hasn't stopped him of trying to do so.

    Shall we continue?
    90% of landlords are absolute parasites of society no doubt about it.
    Being a "good" landlord, not working/contributing to society, but picking up rent obviously falls into this criteria as well.

    seriously what are you dribbling on about. RTB is there just for tenants and funded by landlord. 90% ...wow I love the use of "facts"...


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    #2262
    jr1942
    Closed Accounts Posts: 45 ✭jr1942


    rightmove wrote: »
    seriously what are you dribbling on about. RTB is there just for tenants and funded by landlord. 90% ...wow I love the use of "facts"...

    I would have said 100% but wanted to stay truthful to UB40's One in ten song.
    Which goes:

    I am the one in ten
    A number on a list
    I am the one in ten
    Even though I don't exist
    Nobody Knows me
    Even though I'm always there
    A statistic, a reminder
    Of a world that doesn't care


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    #2263
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    jr1942 wrote: »
    I would have said ....

    If you don't like them don't use them. End of problem.


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    #2264
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    jr1942, please read the forum charter before posting again.

    Do not reply to this post.


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    #2265
    Manion
    Registered Users Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭Manion


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    No part of the option is fully remote with approval.

    I think WFH will open up a world of options for people, even if it is only 50% of the time. Only needing to be in the office 10 days a month opens up intercity commuting as an option for example. It's all about the marginal person, the person who will either not rent in Dublin or rent in an area of Dublin suburbs with the right WFH options. The company I work for has gone from a very restrictive working from home policy to something that is very liberal. I don't think it's in the best interest of the company I work for but employee attitudes have changed and it's now seen as a more reasonable expectation. The real question will be, where will people want to live and do our city centers have enough to attract people who aren't otherwise forced to live there.


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    #2266
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 942 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Manion wrote: »
    I think WFH will open up a world of options for people, even if it is only 50% of the time. Only needing to be in the office 10 days a month opens up intercity commuting as an option for example. It's all about the marginal person, the person who will either not rent in Dublin or rent in an area of Dublin suburbs with the right WFH options. The company I work for has gone from a very restrictive working from home policy to something that is very liberal. I don't think it's in the best interest of the company I work for but employee attitudes have changed and it's now seen as a more reasonable expectation. The real question will be, where will people want to live and do our city centers have enough to attract people who aren't otherwise forced to live there.

    That is the great unknown for me. I think a number of people who have been priced out of Dublin will decide on moving to the likes of Carlow and stomach the trip to Dublin twice a week. The commute will not be as bad as before so that will also help these people on the days they have to make the commute. If rents in the CC drop even more you then might find people to start to move back in if they need or want to be there.


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    #2267
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    That is the great unknown for me. I think a number of people who have been priced out of Dublin will decide on moving to the likes of Carlow and stomach the trip to Dublin twice a week. The commute will not be as bad as before so that will also help these people on the days they have to make the commute. If rents in the CC drop even more you then might find people to start to move back in if they need or want to be there.

    I think people are putting too much stick in this remote working thing. Its a risk to gamble on being allowed to work remotely long term. OR what if you have to change jobs and you cant get a remote working one anymore.

    Myself, I think that a lot of people are going to jump now or in the next year and move out of Dublin because they are working remotely now.
    After that I see most companies realizing that working remotely is far less productive for the company and go back to requiring people in the office. Maybe they will go for 1 day a week remote working.
    And once someone changes job they are going to be limited in what jobs they can apply for if they are living in Carlow and most of their type of work is in Dublin.


    I think its all going to go back to the way it was pre-covid in a year or two.
    Anyone caught with a long commute then its just going to get worse.
    Add to that all the people moving back to Dublin and students going back and I think we are in for a big property squeeze again, with people stuck doing nightmare commutes because they bought too far away.


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    #2268
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I think people are putting too much stick in this remote working thing. Its a risk to gamble on being allowed to work remotely long term. OR what if you have to change jobs and you cant get a remote working one anymore.

    Myself, I think that a lot of people are going to jump now or in the next year and move out of Dublin because they are working remotely now.
    After that I see most companies realizing that working remotely is far less productive for the company and go back to requiring people in the office. Maybe they will go for 1 day a week remote working.
    And once someone changes job they are going to be limited in what jobs they can apply for if they are living in Carlow and most of their type of work is in Dublin.


    I think its all going to go back to the way it was pre-covid in a year or two.
    Anyone caught with a long commute then its just going to get worse.
    Add to that all the people moving back to Dublin and students going back and I think we are in for a big property squeeze again, with people stuck doing nightmare commutes because they bought too far away.

    You think they will "realise" this? So already it must be showing that it is less productive for them? So unproductive that it necessarily requires full attendance back in the office?

    I'm not so sure. We are now 8 months into WFH and guaranteed to continue to be so on a large scale until the vaccine is rolled out to the vulnerable which looks like another few months anyway. Long story short, it will be close to a year WFH. As loathe as a I am to use the term "new normal", I have to question people who talk about "going back to before" in the context of a year of change. When does the change become the normal?

    Predicting a property demand surge on the assumption that there is a previous normal to return to is a big leap. The economy is not a tap that just gets turned back on; government borrowing needs to be sustained until we are fully out of the woods with covid (i.e. no more masks, social distancing or travel restrictions) and then some (as the government borrowing to seed an economic recovery will take a significant amount of borrowing). At the very earliest I would say another 6 months of restrictions, following which the economic rebuilding can begin.

    There is a famous chart on the emotions of the market, which I feel is very appropriate for the economy this year. All signs point to "euphoria" with some "anxiety" this year (especially note the quote in the chart which is verbatim what many companies and investors have been saying, "Temporary set back, I'm a long term investor"). Just take note of the trajectory on this chart from here!

    cycle-of-emotions.jpg


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    #2269
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    You think they will "realise" this? So already it must be showing that it is less productive for them? So unproductive that it necessarily requires full attendance back in the office?

    I'm not so sure. We are now 8 months into WFH and guaranteed to continue to be so on a large scale until the vaccine is rolled out to the vulnerable which looks like another few months anyway. Long story short, it will be close to a year WFH. As loathe as a I am to use the term "new normal", I have to question people who talk about "going back to before" in the context of a year of change. When does the change become the normal?

    Predicting a property demand surge on the assumption that there is a previous normal to return to is a big leap. The economy is not a tap that just gets turned back on; government borrowing needs to be sustained until we are fully out of the woods with covid (i.e. no more masks, social distancing or travel restrictions) and then some (as the government borrowing to seed an economic recovery will take a significant amount of borrowing). At the very earliest I would say another 6 months of restrictions, following which the economic rebuilding can begin.

    There is a famous chart on the emotions of the market, which I feel is very appropriate for the economy this year. All signs point to "euphoria" with some "anxiety" this year (especially note the quote in the chart which is verbatim what many companies and investors have been saying, "Temporary set back, I'm a long term investor"). Just take note of the trajectory on this chart from here!

    cycle-of-emotions.jpg

    We will have to agree to disagree.
    I think its a bigger leap to think that things wont go back to normal over the next year or two.
    I would say we are at the relief stage there.


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    #2270
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    ....I see most companies realizing that working remotely is far less productive for the company...

    I think thats debatable. In my experience those people struggling with tracking productivity in the WFH scenario probably don't track it in the office, they think they do by presenteeism but they most likely aren't. But thats a discussion for a different thread.

    But I do agree its a bit early for a mass migration out of the city and suburbs.
    Job mobility is a valid point. I think it will take companies some time to work out where level of WFH they are happy with. Until that happens over the next 12~24 months, people would be wiser not committing to any big life choices.

    That's assuming there is supply to be had outside the cities.


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    #2271
    Manion
    Registered Users Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭Manion


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I think people are putting too much stick in this remote working thing. Its a risk to gamble on being allowed to work remotely long term. OR what if you have to change jobs and you cant get a remote working one anymore.

    I'd say you don't need to take the long term view when it comes to renting. Leases are usually only a year and push comes to shove you can break a lease as a tenant. You really need to think about the marginal person, or the marginal behaviour. WFH doesn't need to be something that works for the majority of people or companies, all you need is for a big enough proportion of people to available of it relative to the gap in supply versus demand (note I did not say absolute supply or absolute demand) for there to be a dramatic effect.


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    #2272
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Manion wrote: »
    I'd say you don't need to take the long term view when it comes to renting. Leases are usually only a year and push comes to shove you can break a lease as a tenant. You really need to think about the marginal person, or the marginal behaviour. WFH doesn't need to be something that works for the majority of people or companies, all you need is for a big enough proportion of people to available of it relative to the gap in supply versus demand (note I did not say absolute supply or absolute demand) for there to be a dramatic effect.

    The thing about the RPZ is that one effect of it used to be. That if a tenancy stuck on a lower rent than market price they are slow to leave it, as a new place will be at the market rent.

    This might be a little different now the top of the market and Airbnb has dropped or disappeared etc.
    But is it true of the lower and middle of the market, in the cities and in the middle of nowhere?
    Also while supply has increased, it there still a shortage? If so in what parts of the market.

    In addition, if tenants can break leases with no penalty what's the impact of that on the market.
    I know what it was like before in the 80's and 90's. But back then there wasn't a supply shortage and the costs and risks were low.

    Interesting times ahead.


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    #2273
    dev_ire
    Registered Users Posts: 157 ✭✭dev_ire


    It is simple, buy (or rent) where you want to live along with a view of where you work/want to work.
    It would be silly to buy based on thinking you can work from home part time or full time in a year or not either way.


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    #2274
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    A qualification to that is the affordability crisis with housing (purchasing and renting) in Ireland. Some would argue it is so bad that there is practically no choice at the moment due to the affordability issues.


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    #2275
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 942 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    DCC indicating that ~70% of the 900 Airbnb properties they followed up on reverted to long term rental. Seems they got through an impressive amount of work.
    According to new figures from Dublin City Council, up to 70% of suspected illegal Airbnb-style holiday lets in Dublin city have returned to the full-time rental market since the start of the pandemic.

    About 900 properties in the city were being investigated by the council for suspected breaches of the legislation since from July 2019, owners of properties in rent pressure zones have had to obtain planning permission to use their housing for short-term lets for more than three months each year. The council’s policy is usually to refuse permission, to prevent the loss of permanent rental accommodation in the city.

    During the pandemic, the council has contacted the owners of those properties and asked about their intentions; 60-70% said they have reverted to long-term use.

    https://hub.theasap.org.uk/900-of-dublins-airbnb-style-lets-return-to-long-term-market/


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    #2276
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,024 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    DCC indicating that ~70% of the 900 Airbnb properties they followed up on reverted to long term rental. Seems they got through an impressive amount of work.



    https://hub.theasap.org.uk/900-of-dublins-airbnb-style-lets-return-to-long-term-market/

    “During the pandemic, the council has contacted the owners of those properties and asked about their intentions; 60-70% said they have reverted to long-term use.”

    Ozark, I’m surprised the other 30-40% didn’t also tell them when asked that they were reverting to long term rental. They are effectively being asked “are you doing something illegal?”.

    What did you expect them to say?


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    #2277
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 942 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    “During the pandemic, the council has contacted the owners of those properties and asked about their intentions; 60-70% said they have reverted to long-term use.”

    Ozark, I’m surprised the other 30-40% didn’t also tell them when asked that they were reverting to long term rental. They are effectively being asked “are you doing something illegal?”.

    What did you expect them to say?

    Dav, it seems they didn't just ask a question...
    The owners of the properties were required to provide the council with tenancy agreements with their new residents, to confirm they are operating as traditional landlords, providing tenancy agreements as proof.


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    #2278
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,024 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Dav, it seems they didn't just ask a question...

    Ozark. Think about it. Airbnb properties were suddenly able to produce long term leases when asked during the pandemic, at a time when rentals were emptying and there was no demand. You think 600 short term rentals were able to find tenants just when they needed to show the leases to DCC?


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    #2279
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Anecdotally, plenty of ex-airbnb's on the likes of Daft would suggest a significant number were put up for long-term rent. A much more likely reason than 70% of 900 landlord forging tenancy agreements.

    Would make sense given the impact of Covid, never mind the approaches by LAs.

    Good to see all the same.


  • Options
    #2280
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,024 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Graham wrote: »
    Anecdotally, plenty of ex-airbnb's on the likes of Daft would suggest a significant number were put up for long-term rent. A much more likely reason than 70% of 900 landlord forging tenancy agreements.

    Would make sense given the impact of Covid, never mind the approaches by LAs.

    Good to see all the same.

    Those Airbnb owners must be the luckiest Landlords in Ireland, 70% of them rented their properties at time when thousands are empty and demand is at its lowest for years.

    There are currently 4660 full rental properties listed on Airbnb in Dublin.


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    #2281
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Those Airbnb owners must be the luckiest Landlords in Ireland, 70% of them rented their properties at time when thousands are empty and demand is at its lowest for years.

    Might explain why rents dropped in some areas.

    Like I said, that's a much more realistic explanation than 70% of landlords forging tenancy agreements to try and pull a fast one with DCC.

    4,660 properties left for DCC to sort :)


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